The League One Promotion Thread 15/16

[Indian Dan]

That's cos Preston haven't had to endure a spell of threatened relegation and you have.

It's just personal perspective. As a genuine question, how many seasons would you accept similar to this one before the Championship pissed you off?

I dare say Villa fans are dreading the inevitable but will enjoy next season more than any for quite a while - unless they are the next Wigan or Fulham etc.

 

[Ciderup]

That's cos Preston haven't had to endure a spell of threatened relegation and you have.

It's just personal perspective. As a genuine question, how many seasons would you accept similar to this one before the Championship pissed you off?

I dare say Villa fans are dreading the inevitable but will enjoy next season more than any for quite a while - unless they are the next Wigan or Fulham etc.

Good question.
I think it's a wonderful division with some real quality in it. I would like to see signs of progress on the pitch as we are pretty sorted off it now but, as you say, too many years of struggle would diminish the enjoyment. Would I rather be near the bottom of the Championship or the top of L1? Championship all day long.

 

[Indian Dan]

So, you'd be happy enough becoming the Stoke of the Championship?

Not busting your balls here, just interested.

 

[Jockney]

I have not seen one team this season where I've thought "Jesus, they're a bit too good for us" the only team that have comfortably beaten us were Hull away (and Huddersfield away but we were just utterly shite that day) but then Hull were crap at Deepdale. It's really not that hard a step-up, Bristol City just had a complete **** in charge and since appointing a better manager are now finding it much easier.

we finished 9th in our first season back.

we then finished in the lower regions of the table consistently until we were relegated.

that is the reality for clubs like preston, barnsley, bristol city and ourselves in that league, without significant outside investment.

 

[TomPNE94]

we finished 9th in our first season back.

we then finished in the lower regions of the table consistently until we were relegated.

that is the reality for clubs like preston, barnsley, bristol city and ourselves in that league, without significant outside investment.

You may well be right. We'll see.

 

[JJH]

we finished 9th in our first season back.

we then finished in the lower regions of the table consistently until we were relegated.

that is the reality for clubs like preston, barnsley, bristol city and ourselves in that league, without significant outside investment.

Haha, I don't know if you noticed in the summer but we were chucking around £9m bids here and there.

I agree though, that has been our level for years - bottom half of the Championship, followed by a few seasons in L1.

 

[Jockney]

You may well be right. We'll see.

Whether Preston will be the exception or not remains to be seen. It's unlikely they will be and, if they are, then they will be the exception that proves the rule.

 

[SF_]

we finished 9th in our first season back.

we then finished in the lower regions of the table consistently until we were relegated.

that is the reality for clubs like preston, barnsley, bristol city and ourselves in that league, without significant outside investment.

Since 2000 we've finished in the top half of the Championship/ Division One 8 times out of our 13 seasons (assuming we don't collapse this year), 4 of them play-off finishes. We dropped back down to League One due to a horrendous run of managerial appointments, our wagebill was as high as it's ever been, it was just spent badly.

Burnley are no bigger than the clubs you mention but grabbed an automatic spot without spending above their means which has set them up for the foreseeable future. Holloway performed miracles at Blackpool with loans and freebies too.

Gates generally dictate your average league standing but they don't stop you from competing in the Championship when you're there, and if they do, no more so than they did 20 years ago. The thing that generally relegates clubs like ourselves, is that when we get a good manager, we generally lose them and replace him with a useless c***.

 

[Ciderup]

So, you'd be happy enough becoming the Stoke of the Championship?

Not busting your balls here, just interested.

Not really Dan, not now.
I would imagine you've seen the redevelopment and the growing infrastructure at our place? We now have the match day / non match day facilities to ramp up our turnover meaning an appreciably higher budget. Given that, no I wouldn't be happy to be the 'Stoke of the Championship' but as we were pre development, I probably would have settled for consolidation as a solid Championship club TBH.

 

[THE TERRACEMAN]

Since 2000 we've finished in the top half of the Championship/ Division One 8 times out of our 13 seasons (assuming we don't collapse this year), 4 of them play-off finishes. We dropped back down to League One due to a horrendous run of managerial appointments, our wagebill was as high as it's ever been, it was just spent badly.

Burnley are no bigger than the clubs you mention but grabbed an automatic spot without spending above their means which has set them up for the foreseeable future. Holloway performed miracles at Blackpool with loans and freebies too.

Gates generally dictate your average league standing but they don't stop you from competing in the Championship when you're there, and if they do, no more so than they did 20 years ago. The thing that generally relegates clubs like ourselves, is that when we get a good manager, we generally lose them and replace him with a useless c***.

Cheers for that, gives me hope if we get up !

 

[Jockney]

Since 2000 we've finished in the top half of the Championship/ Division One 8 times out of our 13 seasons (assuming we don't collapse this year), 4 of them play-off finishes. We dropped back down to League One due to a horrendous run of managerial appointments, our wagebill was as high as it's ever been, it was just spent badly.

We had been in a very similar position up until recently: a finish of 4th in 2002, followed by finishes of 10th, 9th and 9th before board malpractice saw us relegated in 2006. The money in this league has now gotten out of control and our clubs cannot hope to compete anymore. It used to be, for example, that you could buy cheaply from the lower leagues. Now players that you would have gotten from L1 for £250k a few years ago are now going for in excess of £1m: pennies to clubs owned by billionaires, or those pulling in 20k plus a week but a year's transfer budget for us.

Burnley are no bigger than the clubs you mention but grabbed an automatic spot without spending above their means which has set them up for the foreseeable future. Holloway performed miracles at Blackpool with loans and freebies too.

Burnley got promoted to the Premier League the first time at just the right time and had the benefit of parachute payments to keep them afloat while they sorted their shit out. Blackpool pulled a miracle season out their arse, coasted on the parachute payments and then dropped like a fucking stone.

Gates generally dictate your average league standing but they don't stop you from competing in the Championship when you're there, and if they do, no more so than they did 20 years ago. The thing that generally relegates clubs like ourselves, is that when we get a good manager, we generally lose them and replace him with a useless c***.

Gates count for a fair bit because they are a reliable source of income and generally dictate what kind of investment you will attract, and how much of it you will receive. Similarly, big clubs with big fanbases tend to have built up a good infrastructure. Forest and Leeds' superior training facilities and youth set-ups, for example, have seen them produce outstanding young talent that they have sold on for a profit. Those sort of support networks have kept their heads above water where they otherwise struggle in other areas. That clubs of that calibre (Wolves included in this as well) cannot compete financially with the likes of Burnley (parachute payments) and Bournemouth (rich owner) tells you how 'competitive' (or subverted) the market has become.

Preston will be back in L1 before the decade is out. Not because they are a small club for that level or because they aren't a well-run outfit, but because they will have to consistently make excellent business decisions year in, year out just to tread water.

 

[SF_]

We had been in a very similar position up until recently: a finish of 4th in 2002, followed by finishes of 10th, 9th and 9th before board malpractice saw us relegated in 2006. The money in this league has now gotten out of control and our clubs cannot hope to compete anymore. It used to be, for example, that you could buy cheaply from the lower leagues. Now players that you would have gotten from L1 for £250k a few years ago are now going for in excess of £1m: pennies to clubs owned by billionaires, or those pulling in 20k plus a week but a year's transfer budget for us.

Burnley got promoted to the Premier League the first time at just the right time and had the benefit of parachute payments to keep them afloat while they sorted their shit out. Blackpool pulled a miracle season out their arse, coasted on the parachute payments and then dropped like a fucking stone.

Gates count for a fair bit because they are a reliable source of income and generally dictate what kind of investment you will attract, and how much of it you will receive. Similarly, big clubs with big fanbases tend to have built up a good infrastructure. Forest and Leeds' superior training facilities and youth set-ups, for example, have seen them produce outstanding young talent that they have sold on for a profit. Those sort of support networks have kept their heads above water where they otherwise struggle in other areas. That clubs of that calibre (Wolves included in this as well) cannot compete financially with the likes of Burnley (parachute payments) and Bournemouth (rich owner) tells you how 'competitive' (or subverted) the market has become.

Preston will be back in L1 before the decade is out. Not because they are a small club for that level or because they aren't a well-run outfit, but because they will have to consistently make excellent business decisions year in, year out just to tread water.

All good points and during my lifetime I don't think i'll ever be a stranger to L1 but it's all about making that top 6 when you're in the ascendancy and using the money gained for the long-term.

Did Swansea have a really rich benefactor? I can't remember but they got up there, are in their 5th Premier league season, soon to be 6th and won the League Cup. They might be back down here in the long run but I refuse to believe that just because the money has gone mental, all hope of progression has gone for clubs like us or we are guaranteed to be back down within a couple of seasons.

I generally agree with all the points you're making, I just don't feel it is much different to what it was a decade ago, or the one before that when money seriously started dictating things. You still had big clubs to contend with, as well as sugar daddy clubs like Blackburn, Wigan, Fulham, Pompey etc.

Some of the big city clubs will still spunk money and make bad choices, while there will still be small clubs occasionally defying the odds.

 

[TomPNE94]

We had been in a very similar position up until recently: a finish of 4th in 2002, followed by finishes of 10th, 9th and 9th before board malpractice saw us relegated in 2006. The money in this league has now gotten out of control and our clubs cannot hope to compete anymore. It used to be, for example, that you could buy cheaply from the lower leagues. Now players that you would have gotten from L1 for £250k a few years ago are now going for in excess of £1m: pennies to clubs owned by billionaires, or those pulling in 20k plus a week but a year's transfer budget for us.



Burnley got promoted to the Premier League the first time at just the right time and had the benefit of parachute payments to keep them afloat while they sorted their shit out. Blackpool pulled a miracle season out their arse, coasted on the parachute payments and then dropped like a fucking stone.



Gates count for a fair bit because they are a reliable source of income and generally dictate what kind of investment you will attract, and how much of it you will receive. Similarly, big clubs with big fanbases tend to have built up a good infrastructure. Forest and Leeds' superior training facilities and youth set-ups, for example, have seen them produce outstanding young talent that they have sold on for a profit. Those sort of support networks have kept their heads above water where they otherwise struggle in other areas. That clubs of that calibre (Wolves included in this as well) cannot compete financially with the likes of Burnley (parachute payments) and Bournemouth (rich owner) tells you how 'competitive' (or subverted) the market has become.

Preston will be back in L1 before the decade is out. Not because they are a small club for that level or because they aren't a well-run outfit, but because they will have to consistently make excellent business decisions year in, year out just to tread water.

Christ, what's the point then? Might as well jack it all in now.

 

[Jockney]

All good points and during my lifetime I don't think i'll ever be a stranger to L1 but it's all about making that top 6 when you're in the ascendancy and using the money gained for the long-term.

Did Swansea have a really rich benefactor? I can't remember but they got up there, are in their 5th Premier league season, soon to be 6th and won the League Cup. They might be back down here in the long run but I refuse to believe that just because the money has gone mental, all hope of progression has gone for clubs like us or we are guaranteed to be back down within a couple of seasons.

I generally agree with all the points you're making, I just don't feel it is much different to what it was a decade ago, or the one before that when money seriously started dictating things. You still had big clubs to contend with, as well as sugar daddy clubs like Blackburn, Wigan, Fulham, Pompey etc.

Some of the big city clubs will still spunk money and make bad choices, while there will still be small clubs occasionally defying the odds.

I think the difference is in the levels of spending across the board. Sure you always had a few clubs splashing the cash, but now you've got the likes of Derby and Boro each spending £20m a Summer, while the former financial big-hitters like Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday now look comparatively small fry despite spending a substantial wedge on fees and wages. Looking at the transfer fee outlay of clubs in the division, I think only yourselves, MK, Rotherham and Charlton are the only clubs not to have spent seven figure sums in recent seasons and besides Preston all of those clubs are mired in relegation woes. As far back as even a few seasons ago, half the teams in that division were spending fairly modestly.

 

[Jockney]

Christ, what's the point then? Might as well jack it all in now.

Well, you always live in hope that your team is the exception -- that everything might just fall perfectly for you, as it did for Burnley and Blackpool. But yes, it can be very depressing.

 

[THE TERRACEMAN]

Just out of interest, you lads in the championship, how do you see the league one promotion race unfolding ?

 

[SF_]

I think the difference is in the levels of spending across the board. Sure you always had a few clubs splashing the cash, but now you've got the likes of Derby and Boro each spending £20m a Summer, while the former financial big-hitters like Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday now look comparatively small fry despite spending a substantial wedge on fees and wages. Looking at the transfer fee outlay of clubs in the division, I think only yourselves, MK, Rotherham and Charlton are the only clubs not to have spent seven figure sums in recent seasons and besides Preston all of those clubs are mired in relegation woes. As far back as even a few seasons ago, half the teams in that division were spending fairly modestly.

The money is madness, no questioning that but I still feel the likes of Derby and Boro are purchasing the same standard of player, just at an inflated price. Downing looked to be a top signing but hasn't pulled up trees and the likes of Nugent, Ince, Butterfield, Johnson & Shackell are all just good Championship players who have cost too much.

Ipswich, all be it a big club, don't spend like one are always there or there abouts the top 6 and that's down to a savvy manager.

With the fear of going round in circles, my overall point is I just don't think the league is any tougher than the last time we got back up here when Blackburn had the likes of Duff, Dunn & Jansen, Fulham with Saha & Boa Morte, Bolton with Ricketts, Frandsen & Nolan. It just looks a lot more daunting because of daft overspending.

 

[SF_]

Just out of interest, you lads in the championship, how do you see the league one promotion race unfolding ?

Can't see Burton surrendering top spot and I think Wigan will probably pip Walsall to 2nd spot because of their squad depth, although I think it will be close.

Play-offs are anyones.

 

[Bobbin']

Just out of interest, you lads in the championship, how do you see the league one promotion race unfolding ?

With SF_. Can't see Burton finishing out of the top two now, you've been too consistent. Think Wigan's extra quality and depth will see them take the other promotion spot.

Play-offs are always a lottery but if Millwall haven't run out of steam by then I would fancy them to win them which wouldn't bother me as it saves the pain of seeing them do the double over us next season!

 

[THE LAST WALTZ]

I don't see why everyone seems so convinced that Wigan are nailed on.
OK, I know they have a big budget and sizeable squad but the reason they are not miles clear of everyone else is because they are not miles better than everyone else.
Their form of late has not exactly been mind blowing.
Burton are now in a position where they will not cock it up, and fair play for that because I have been waiting for them to falter (a bit like Leicester really).
As for second, I still reckon that could be any one of four.
Walsall suffered when they appointed the wrong manager. They have resolved that.
Millwall suffered due to a bad start to the season. They have resolved that.
Gills have suffered due to injuries to their best players at the wrong time. They are only a week or so away from resolving that.

 

[Bobbin']

I don't see why everyone seems so convinced that Wigan are nailed on.
OK, I know they have a big budget and sizeable squad but the reason they are not miles clear of everyone else is because they are not miles better than everyone else.
Their form of late has not exactly been mind blowing.
Burton are now in a position where they will not cock it up, and fair play for that because I have been waiting for them to falter (a bit like Leicester really).
As for second, I still reckon that could be any one of four.

I don't think they are nailed on but they are currently the second best side in the division and they do have the most depth which I think could be the difference in the run-in especially with the Easter schedule coming right up. Although, having a quick look at the fixture lists between now and the end of the season theirs does look the least favourable.

 

[Bartonyellow]

I still think Wigan will win the league as they have the best squad and are capable of dicking everyone on their day.
But, pressure may tell - and the doc point gap we have hopefully will be enough to get us over the line

 

[wiganmudhuts28]

16 unbeaten is pretty impressive at any level but we dont seem win when burton slip up...and a few iffy results are costing us from being top of the league...

 

[JoshBCFC]

Going to say Walsall are going to finish 2nd, behind Burton.

 

[Saddlerrad]

Wigan are going to absolutely piss it, the gap between 2nd and 3rd will be like 10+ points, be that us or Gillingham, Millwall etc.

Massively expensive squad compared to most of the division, too big a squad and a massive amount of attacking power.

 

[joethegill]

Wigan are going to absolutely piss it, the gap between 2nd and 3rd will be like 10+ points, be that us or Gillingham, Millwall etc.

Massively expensive squad compared to most of the division, too big a squad and a massive amount of attacking power.

Yet they do still keep playing Donervan Daniels to give the rest of us hope.

We're already aiming for play-offs, have been for weeks now.

 

[AtaturkOzgutson]

Certainly looks like Wigan for the title, and Burton to choke now. Hmm.

 

[BCFC Jordan]

Can see Walsall finishing above Burton. No shame on Burton for getting this far - they've been overachieving all season and the pressure is probably getting to them now it's the final 10 or so games.

Would love Burton and Walsall to both be the top two after 46 games, but Wigan have the money and now the confidence and form too.

 

[JJ1532]

103 - Champions 2014
102
101 - Champions 2012
100
99 - Champions 2015
98
97
96 - Guaranteed Champions
95 - Champions 2011 Guaranteed Runners up
94 - Promotion 2014
93 - Promotion 2012
92 - Promotion 2011
91 - Promotion 2016
90
89
88 - Predicted Champions 2016
87 - Predicted Promotion 2016
86 - Guaranteed Play Offs
85
84 - Champions 2013
83 - Promotion 2013
82
81
80
79
78
77
76 - Predicted Play-Offs 2016
75 - Burton(39)
74 - Play-Offs 2013, 2014 Wigan(39)
-----------------------------------------
73 - Play-Offs 2012
72
71 - Play-Offs 2011
70
69 - Play-Offs 2016
68 - Walsall(37)
67
66 - Gillingham(38)
65 - Millwall(39)
64 - Bradford(39)
--------------------------------------------
63
62 - Barnsley(39)
61
60
59
58
57 - Rochdale(39)
56 - Coventry(38), Scunthorpe(39)

Forthcoming Fixtures:

1st Burton(39) - 75 points. Bury(H), Scunthorpe(A), Barnsley(H), Wigan(H), Colchester(A), Gillingham(H), Doncaster(A)
2nd Wigan(39) - 74 points. Shrewsbury(A), Coventry(H), Doncaster(A), Burton(A), Southend(H), Blackpool(A), Barnsley(H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Walsall(37) - 68 points. Sheff U(A), Oldham(A), Gillingham(A), Southend(H), Swindon(H), Bradford(A), Shrewsbury(H), Fleetwood(H), Port Vale(A)
4th Gillingham(38) - 66 points. Coventry(H), Sheff U(A), Walsall(H), Port Vale(H), Rochdale(A), Shrewsbury(H), Burton(A), Millwall(H)
5th Millwall(39) - 65 points. Colchester(A), Shrewsbury(H), Coventry(A), Fleetwood(H), Bury(A), Oldham(H), Gillingham(A)
6th Bradford(39) - 64 points. Scunthorpe(H), Swindon(H), Shrewsbury(A), Coventry(A), Walsall(H), Southend(A), Chesterfield(H)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7th Barnsley(39) - 62 points. Chesterfield(H), Oldham(H), Burton(A), Peterborough(H), Sheff U(A), Colchester(H), Wigan(A)
8th Rochdale(39) - 57 points. Doncaster(H), Peterborough(A), Blackpool(H), Gillingham(H), Port Vale(A), Swindon(H), Colchester(A)
9th Coventry(38) - 56 points. Colchester(H), Gillingham(A), Wigan(A), Millwall(H), Bradford(H), Doncaster(A), Sheff U(H), Oldham(A)
10th Scunthorpe(39) - 56 points. Bradford(A), Burton(H), Crewe(A), Bury(H), Peterborough(A), Port Vale(H), Sheff U(A)

Things are really starting to get interesting after the Easter weekend. Burton only managed 1 point and 0 goals from their games. Their lead at the top is down to just 1 and things don't get any easier for them over the next few weeks. Can they handle the pressure and get back on track? Or will Wigan storm in and take the lead in the title race. They had a great weekend, picking up back to backs. They've also put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack, although Walsall could draw level should they win their games in hand.

Walsall didn't play due to international call ups, which meant that the teams behind them are not far away. 3 straight away games now, can they hold their nerve and keep their promotion campaign on course? Gillingham only played 1 game but won it, away at Bury. 5 of their last 8 games are at home, which might give them an edge in the play off race. Millwall had a mixed set of games, 1 defeat to Bradford, but beat Burton. Bizarrely, it might have been better had those results been flipped. Still, looking good for the play offs, can they get above Walsall and Gillingham into that 3rd spot? Bradford got back to back 1-0 wins and took advantage of Barnsley slipping up at home on Friday. They'll have a real fight on their hands for that last play off spot.

Barnsley slipped a little back in the race for the play offs, but they'll take heart from the fact that they have a 5 point gap as it stands between them and the next closest team. Obviously Coventry could close that with a win against Colchester, but still, nice cushion to have. 2 relegation threatened teams at home now, need 6 points from those games to keep the pressure on the teams above them. Rochdale are doing their best to fight their way into contention, their loss against Wigan was a set back though. Next 3 look winnable, could they be a dark horse? Coventry are surely entering the last chance saloon, beat Colchester and they keep their hopes alive. But then they have 4 straight top 6 teams. Hard to see them still being in the hunt after those 4, but you never know. Scunny are another making a late run, can Alexander inspire them to mount a late charge?

The 3 teams below them are seeing their hopes dwindle away. Vale are lacking the firepower, Sheff U and Southend could knock each other out of the race with a draw on Wednesday. Do any of the teams below Barnsley have enough to make the top 6? Is it between the teams in 3rd-7th for those final 4 play off spots? Can Burton hold Wigan off? Is the top 2 done? Loads to be decided over the coming weeks.

 

[joethegill]

We're now 9 behind Burton with a game in hand, and we still have to play them. Not out the question. Plus, several key players are starting to get back involved in the matchday squad, we're 4 unbeaten (including 3 clean sheets), and starting to churn out the results again. Need Walsall to still slip up as well obviously, which means beating them becomes necessary, but 2nd place is certainly not out of the question, following Wigan up.