The League One Relegation Thread 15/16

[JJ1532]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 -
48 - Safety 2011 Walsall(23), Burton(23), Bristol City(23)*
47 - Gillingham(24), Swindon(23)
46 -
45 - Preston(23)*
44 - Coventry(24), MK Dons(22)*
43 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Wigan(23)
39 -
38 -
37 - Peterborough(24), Southend(23)
36 - Sheff U(23), Bradford(23)
35 -
34 - Millwall(23), Bradford(22)
33 - Port Vale(24), Bury(23), Sheff U(22)*
32 - Chesterfield(22)*
31 - Rochdale(23), Scunthorpe(24), Doncaster(24), Rochdale(23), Notts C(22)#, Peterborough(23)
30 - Fleetwood(23), Walsall(23), Oldham(22)
29 - Port Vale(23)
28 - Swindon(24)
27 -
26 - Shrewsbury(24), Barnsley(22), Coventry(23), Scunthorpe(21)
25 - Blackpool(23), Gillingham(23)
24 - Barnsley(23), Chesterfield(24)
-------------------------------------------
23 - Fleetwood(23), Crawley(23)#, Crewe(23)
22 - Oldham(22), Leyton O(22)#
21 - Colchester(23)
20 - Crewe(23), Colchester(24), Yeovil(22)#

Teams in League One last season

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Shrewsbury(24) - 26 points. Chesterfield(A), Barnsley(H), Burton(A), Oldham(H), Southend(H)
18th Blackpool(23) - 25 points. Burton(A), Port Vale(H), Scunthorpe(H), Walsall(A), Sheff U(H)
19th Barnsley(23) - 24 points. Millwall(H), Shrewsbury(A), Rochdale(H), Swindon(A), Bury(H)
20th Chesterfield(24) - 24 points. Shrewsbury(H), Rochdale(A), Wigan(A), Millwall(H), Colchester(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21st Fleetwood(23) - 23 points. Bury(H), Rochdale(A), Colchester(A), Doncaster(H), Walsall(H)
22nd Oldham(22) - 22 points. Colchester(H), Millwall(H), Bradford(A), Bury(H), Shrewsbury(A)
23rd Crewe(23) - 20 points. Coventry(H), Swindon(A), Wigan(H), Bury(A), Millwall(A)
24th Colchester(24) - 20 points. Oldham(A), Sheff U(H), Fleetwood(H), Scunthorpe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Well, it's New Year(almost), so time to roll out this bad boy once again. Gives a different perspective on how the relegation battle is shaping up. In the first table, I've put all the teams from last season in green in the positions they were in going into 2015. As you can work out, those with a * finished in the top 6. Those who were relegated are marked with a #. Notts County were a standout team for 2 reasons last season. Firstly, they looked well clear of the relegation zone at this point in the season, but won just 3 of their final 22 games so eventually go down on the final day. Secondly, they went down with 50 points, so just hitting that total doesn't guarantee you safety. Some teams in the last decade or so have even gone down with 51. 52 is your magical total, hit that and you should be ok. Also worth pointing out that only 2 of the bottom 4 heading into the New Year got relegated. Both Crewe and Colchester survived thanks to results on the final day.

As for the fixtures coming up, Shrewsbuy have the most important it seems, 3 relegation rivals in their next 4. Blackpool have some tough games, but they seem wildly unpredictable at the moment. Beat Posh 2-0 at home, but lose 4-2 away at Barnsley. Barnsley might be this year's Leyton Orient, a team you never think will go down right until the point they actually do. Or, they could do a Bristol City of 2013-14 and power clear in the 2nd half of the season? Chesterfield are slowly slipping down the table, but they'll hope their point against Coventry will get them going again.

Fleetwood have a mixed bag, that midweek trip to Colchester looks big for them. Oldham badly need a win at home to Col U, their home form has been atrocious. As for us, really tough January. Unless we pull out a shock win or 3, we'll more than likely be cut adrift going into February. Colchester have one of the easier runs over the next few weeks, some very winnable games amongst that lot.

 

[Football Purist]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 -
48 - Safety 2011 Walsall(23), Burton(23), Bristol City(23)*
47 - Gillingham(24), Swindon(23)
46 -
45 - Preston(23)*
44 - Coventry(24), MK Dons(22)*
43 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Wigan(23)
39 -
38 -
37 - Peterborough(24), Southend(23)
36 - Sheff U(23), Bradford(23)
35 -
34 - Millwall(23), Bradford(22)
33 - Port Vale(24), Bury(23), Sheff U(22)*
32 - Chesterfield(22)*
31 - Rochdale(23), Scunthorpe(24), Doncaster(24), Rochdale(23), Notts C(22)#, Peterborough(23)
30 - Fleetwood(23), Walsall(23), Oldham(22)
29 - Port Vale(23)
28 - Swindon(24)
27 -
26 - Shrewsbury(24), Barnsley(22), Coventry(23), Scunthorpe(21)
25 - Blackpool(23), Gillingham(23)
24 - Barnsley(23), Chesterfield(24)
-------------------------------------------
23 - Fleetwood(23), Crawley(23)#, Crewe(23)
22 - Oldham(22), Leyton O(22)#
21 - Colchester(23)
20 - Crewe(23), Colchester(24), Yeovil(22)#

Teams in League One last season

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Shrewsbury(24) - 26 points. Chesterfield(A), Barnsley(H), Burton(A), Oldham(H), Southend(H)
18th Blackpool(23) - 25 points. Burton(A), Port Vale(H), Scunthorpe(H), Walsall(A), Sheff U(H)
19th Barnsley(23) - 24 points. Millwall(H), Shrewsbury(A), Rochdale(H), Swindon(A), Bury(H)
20th Chesterfield(24) - 24 points. Shrewsbury(H), Rochdale(A), Wigan(A), Millwall(H), Colchester(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21st Fleetwood(23) - 23 points. Bury(H), Rochdale(A), Colchester(A), Doncaster(H), Walsall(H)
22nd Oldham(22) - 22 points. Colchester(H), Millwall(H), Bradford(A), Bury(H), Shrewsbury(A)
23rd Crewe(23) - 20 points. Coventry(H), Swindon(A), Wigan(H), Bury(A), Millwall(A)
24th Colchester(24) - 20 points. Oldham(A), Sheff U(H), Fleetwood(H), Scunthorpe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Well, it's New Year(almost), so time to roll out this bad boy once again. Gives a different perspective on how the relegation battle is shaping up. In the first table, I've put all the teams from last season in green in the positions they were in going into 2015. As you can work out, those with a * finished in the top 6. Those who were relegated are marked with a #. Notts County were a standout team for 2 reasons last season. Firstly, they looked well clear of the relegation zone at this point in the season, but won just 3 of their final 22 games so eventually go down on the final day. Secondly, they went down with 50 points, so just hitting that total doesn't guarantee you safety. Some teams in the last decade or so have even gone down with 51. 52 is your magical total, hit that and you should be ok. Also worth pointing out that only 2 of the bottom 4 heading into the New Year got relegated. Both Crewe and Colchester survived thanks to results on the final day.

As for the fixtures coming up, Shrewsbuy have the most important it seems, 3 relegation rivals in their next 4. Blackpool have some tough games, but they seem wildly unpredictable at the moment. Beat Posh 2-0 at home, but lose 4-2 away at Barnsley. Barnsley might be this year's Leyton Orient, a team you never think will go down right until the point they actually do. Or, they could do a Bristol City of 2013-14 and power clear in the 2nd half of the season? Chesterfield are slowly slipping down the table, but they'll hope their point against Coventry will get them going again.

Fleetwood have a mixed bag, that midweek trip to Colchester looks big for them. Oldham badly need a win at home to Col U, their home form has been atrocious. As for us, really tough January. Unless we pull out a shock win or 3, we'll more than likely be cut adrift going into February. Colchester have one of the easier runs over the next few weeks, some very winnable games amongst that lot.

You really do have too much time on your hands.

 

[joethegill]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015
50 - Safety 2012, 2014
49 -
48 - Safety 2011 Walsall(23), Burton(23), Bristol City(23)*
47 - Gillingham(24), Swindon(23)
46 -
45 - Preston(23)*
44 - Coventry(24), MK Dons(22)*
43 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Wigan(23)
39 -
38 -
37 - Peterborough(24), Southend(23)
36 - Sheff U(23), Bradford(23)
35 -
34 - Millwall(23), Bradford(22)
33 - Port Vale(24), Bury(23), Sheff U(22)*
32 - Chesterfield(22)*
31 - Rochdale(23), Scunthorpe(24), Doncaster(24), Rochdale(23), Notts C(22)#, Peterborough(23)
30 - Fleetwood(23), Walsall(23), Oldham(22)
29 - Port Vale(23)
28 - Swindon(24)
27 -
26 - Shrewsbury(24), Barnsley(22), Coventry(23), Scunthorpe(21)
25 - Blackpool(23), Gillingham(23)
24 - Barnsley(23), Chesterfield(24)
-------------------------------------------
23 - Fleetwood(23), Crawley(23)#, Crewe(23)
22 - Oldham(22), Leyton O(22)#
21 - Colchester(23)
20 - Crewe(23), Colchester(24), Yeovil(22)#

Teams in League One last season

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Shrewsbury(24) - 26 points. Chesterfield(A), Barnsley(H), Burton(A), Oldham(H), Southend(H)
18th Blackpool(23) - 25 points. Burton(A), Port Vale(H), Scunthorpe(H), Walsall(A), Sheff U(H)
19th Barnsley(23) - 24 points. Millwall(H), Shrewsbury(A), Rochdale(H), Swindon(A), Bury(H)
20th Chesterfield(24) - 24 points. Shrewsbury(H), Rochdale(A), Wigan(A), Millwall(H), Colchester(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21st Fleetwood(23) - 23 points. Bury(H), Rochdale(A), Colchester(A), Doncaster(H), Walsall(H)
22nd Oldham(22) - 22 points. Colchester(H), Millwall(H), Bradford(A), Bury(H), Shrewsbury(A)
23rd Crewe(23) - 20 points. Coventry(H), Swindon(A), Wigan(H), Bury(A), Millwall(A)
24th Colchester(24) - 20 points. Oldham(A), Sheff U(H), Fleetwood(H), Scunthorpe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Well, it's New Year(almost), so time to roll out this bad boy once again. Gives a different perspective on how the relegation battle is shaping up. In the first table, I've put all the teams from last season in green in the positions they were in going into 2015. As you can work out, those with a * finished in the top 6. Those who were relegated are marked with a #. Notts County were a standout team for 2 reasons last season. Firstly, they looked well clear of the relegation zone at this point in the season, but won just 3 of their final 22 games so eventually go down on the final day. Secondly, they went down with 50 points, so just hitting that total doesn't guarantee you safety. Some teams in the last decade or so have even gone down with 51. 52 is your magical total, hit that and you should be ok. Also worth pointing out that only 2 of the bottom 4 heading into the New Year got relegated. Both Crewe and Colchester survived thanks to results on the final day.

As for the fixtures coming up, Shrewsbuy have the most important it seems, 3 relegation rivals in their next 4. Blackpool have some tough games, but they seem wildly unpredictable at the moment. Beat Posh 2-0 at home, but lose 4-2 away at Barnsley. Barnsley might be this year's Leyton Orient, a team you never think will go down right until the point they actually do. Or, they could do a Bristol City of 2013-14 and power clear in the 2nd half of the season? Chesterfield are slowly slipping down the table, but they'll hope their point against Coventry will get them going again.

Fleetwood have a mixed bag, that midweek trip to Colchester looks big for them. Oldham badly need a win at home to Col U, their home form has been atrocious. As for us, really tough January. Unless we pull out a shock win or 3, we'll more than likely be cut adrift going into February. Colchester have one of the easier runs over the next few weeks, some very winnable games amongst that lot.

This really shows how far ahead the top 4 were last season! Much more evenly spread this time around.

No-one looks like being cut totally adrift though.

 

[JJ1532]

You really do have too much time on your hands.

Bit ironic coming from a poster who does nothing but troll others on here.

 

[Football Purist]

Bit ironic coming from a poster who does nothing but troll others on here.

My posts are intelligent/witty/knowledgeable/well-informed and often straight to the point.
If you,however,consider them to be of the 'trolling' genre then that,ofcourse,is your privilege.
UTA!

 

[GFC4EVA]

1 more win should see us safe for the season

We are staying up

 

[valefan16]

The bottom three are starting to drift a little bit and look in big trouble, early days but you'd think they'd need a big turnaround to have a chance of staying up.

The forth is open to a few teams, Blackpool look dreadful and like they'll go but then put together a few results to keep their head above, Fleetwood seem to be unsure if they want to go or not.

Chesterfield had a great result today although Shrewsbury when I've seen them have been awful (all be it once on TV and at VP)

Barnsley I think will have enough to stay up. At the moment the bottom three plus Blackpool or Shrewsbury for me,

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Bottom three and Shrewsbury. Easily the worst four sides in the division.

 

[JJ1532]

52 - NO TEAM RELEGATED WITH THIS TOTAL Predicted Safety 2016
51 - Safety 2013, 2015 Burton(24)
50 - Safety 2012, 2014 Gillingham(25)
49 -
48 - Safety 2011 Walsall(24)
47 - Coventry(25)
46 -
45 -
44 -
43 -
43 -
42 -
41 - Wigan(24)
40 - Peterborough(25)
39 -
38 -
37 - Southend(24)
36 - Sheff U(24)
35 -
34 - Rochdale(24), Millwall(24), Doncaster(25), Bradford(23)
33 - Port Vale(24), Bury(24)
32 - Scunthorpe(25)
31 -
30 -
29 -
28 - Swindon(24)
27 - Barnsley(24), Chesterfield(25)
26 - Fleetwood(24), Shrewsbury(25)
-------------------------------------------
25 - Blackpool(24)
24 -
23 - Oldham(23)
22 -
21 - Colchester(25)
20 - Crewe(24)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Shrewsbury(25) - 27 points. Barnsley(H), Burton(A), Oldham(H), Southend(H), Fleetwood(A)
18th Barnsley(24) - 27 points. Shrewsbury(A), Rochdale(H), Swindon(A), Bury(H), Gillingham(A)
19th Chesterfield(25) - 26 points. Rochdale(A), Wigan(A), Millwall(H), Colchester(A), Peterborough(H)
20th Fleetwood(24) - 26 points. Rochdale(A), Colchester(A), Doncaster(H), Walsall(H), Bradford(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21st Blackpool(24) - 25 points. Port Vale(H), Scunthorpe(H), Walsall(A), Sheff U(H), Gillingham(H)
22nd Oldham(23) - 21 points. Millwall(H), Bradford(A), Bury(H), Shrewsbury(A), Peterborough(A)
23rd Colchester(25) - 21 points. Sheff U(H), Fleetwood(H), Scunthorpe(A), Chesterfield(H), Southend(A)
24th Crewe(24) - 20 points. Swindon(A), Wigan(H), Bury(A), Millwall(A), Rochdale(H)

We'll start at the bottom. Crewe slip back to where we belong, as the worst team in the league. I'm calling it now, we're done. These next few weeks will confirm that. We aint coming back, not this time.

Colchester and Oldham could only manage a draw against each us which does little for either team. I suspect Colchester will be the happier being the away team mind. Looking grim for both sides, these fixtures coming up don't look kind on them. Blackpool slip back into the bottom 4 after blowing a great opportunity away at Burton, what with Burton being down to 10 men for the entire 2nd half. They have a tricky run, but with 4 home games in their next 5 and their home form holding up ok, they could pull clear with a good run.

Fleetwood, Chesterfield and Barnsley all got wins. Fleetwood's home form is carrying them up the table, they need their away form to follow suit. Chesterfield thumped Shrewsbury, but their next 5 look very difficult. Is this the start of a turnaround under Danny Wilson, or was these last 2 results just the new manager syndrome kicking in? Barnsley got a good win against Millwall, they've started to pick up a bit in recent weeks, 5 wins in their last 7. Shrewsbury had a reasonable Festive weekend, picking up 4 points from 2 relegation rivals, but then lost in humiliating fashion to Chesterfield. Got a couple of huge games coming up at home now, with their dismal record on their own patch they need 6 points realistically. Swindon also lurking not far off as well.

Only 3 teams playing next Saturday, see you in 2 weeks.

 

[Football Purist]

Crewe to stay up!
Remember these words come May.

 

[TimeyWimey]

"I still think we're heading in the right direction."

There's only one Steve Davis.

 

[SaddlerJonny]

"I still think we're heading in the right direction."

There's only one Steve Davis.

Question:

Would you take Dean Saunders over Davis?

 

[JJ1532]

No. Don't get me wrong, I want him gone badly but there are plenty of managers I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

 

[Football Purist]

Question:

Would you take Dean Saunders over Davis?

No.

 

[Camborne Gills]

Who would?

 

[joethegill]

Mrs Saunders

 

[4froale]

Not posted on here for a while due family issues. Hope everyone had a good new year. Everyone except David Dunn that is.

We are fucked.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Question:

Would you take Dean Saunders over Davis?

Style of football is extremely similar to Davis' and it'd be a like for like change.

I'd take a lot of managers, but Saunders and Micky Adams (after what he did to Tranmere) are completely off limits.

 

[hold'um Oldham]

I'd take tweedle see and tweed dum at the minute. Surely beats this moron we have in charge.

Arrogant bastard. I'm actually hoping we get hammered this weekend as corney is in attendance by all accounts. A good thumping and he can't deny dunn must go. Corney can walk with him and the sooner the better

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Ryan Lowe back at Bury lol bye League One.

 

[UTS]

Flitcroft just jealous that Davis can utilise him better than us.

 

[TimeyWimey]

So we didn't even ask to keep Lowe. ffs. I guess Davis' meeting with chairman didn't go as planned yesterday.

 

[JJ1532]

Yeah, but this "they haven't asked to extend his loan" thing comes from the picture of honesty that is David "Bury have a bottom 4 budget" Flitcroft, so I can't say I believe him straight away, even taking into account our managements incompetence.

 

[TimeyWimey]

Worth taking a punt with another club's accounts seeing as we will get a stock response from our side.

a) Not-so-subtle digs from Davis towards the board for letting Lowe go back.
b) Callum Saunders has improved tenfold since Tuesday morning, it's amazing!
c) We're trying to do a deal for a mythical striker who is better than Lowe but got to be patient because these things take time and we only want players who will improve us but they've got to be up for the fight and... oh shit, transfer window is closed.

Or all of the above.

 

[JJ1532]

To be honest, i'd rather the board just chucked in the towel and stopped funding all these loanees. I absolutely hate the fact that in the last 2 years, his poor permanent signings have been masked by his ability to rustle up a loan or 2 that drag us over the line. It's the go to tactic of the Steve Evans brand of management and I can't stand it. You make these signings, you live and die with them, not get bailed out with borrowed help.

 

[hold'um Oldham]

Top goalscorer sold to Blackpool

Only true winger sharing a car with him

Talk of our best midfielder going to Wigan while his loan replacement is apparently off as well.

Down down deeper and down

 

[TimeyWimey]

To be honest, i'd rather the board just chucked in the towel and stopped funding all these loanees. I absolutely hate the fact that in the last 2 years, his poor permanent signings have been masked by his ability to rustle up a loan or 2 that drag us over the line. It's the go to tactic of the Steve Evans brand of management and I can't stand it. You make these signings, you live and die with them, not get bailed out with borrowed help.

Looking like we have chucked in the towel. Lowe may return but otherwise that's our lot. I suspect Ajayi will go then back once Harry is fit (and maybe come back once Harry is injured again).

Did read a couple of rumours on twitter that we nearly got rid of SD in the summer but he clung on, but he's now certain to leave this summer. Not sure how true that is and tbh it's a fairly reasonable assumption without any inside info.

Bring on consolidation of 24th and more cost cutting in May!

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Looking like we have chucked in the towel. Lowe may return but otherwise that's our lot. I suspect Ajayi will go then back once Harry is fit (and maybe come back once Harry is injured again).

Did read a couple of rumours on twitter that we nearly got rid of SD in the summer but he clung on, but he's now certain to leave this summer. Not sure how true that is and tbh it's a fairly reasonable assumption without any inside info.

Bring on consolidation of 24th and more cost cutting in May!

Davis will be our manager in August unless a miraculous sacking happens I'm sure of it, and I hope I'm wrong.

 

[3Loggerheads]

Some activity at Shrewsbury

OUT
Collins to Northampton on loan (disappointed with this)
Lawrence to Bristol Rovers (permanent)
Ellis to Carlisle (permanent)
Barnett to Southend on loan (please sign him on a permanent)

IN
Mangan comes back from Tranmere (not sure his knees will hold out but knows where the goal his)
Grimmer on loan from Fulham (had a really good spell first time with us)
Cole loan extended to end of season also from Fulham (pleased with that)
Vassal from Posh (Underwhelmed)

Rumoured that Richie Wellens is signing for us (thought he was signing for Oldham... good pedigree don't know how he is these days though?)

We desperately need a decent striker in!

 

[Floreat Salopia]

Some activity at Shrewsbury

OUT
Collins to Northampton on loan (disappointed with this)
Lawrence to Bristol Rovers (permanent)
Ellis to Carlisle (permanent)
Barnett to Southend on loan (please sign him on a permanent)

IN
Mangan comes back from Tranmere (not sure his knees will hold out but knows where the goal his)
Grimmer on loan from Fulham (had a really good spell first time with us)
Cole loan extended to end of season also from Fulham (pleased with that)
Vassal from Posh (Underwhelmed)

Rumoured that Richie Wellens is signing for us (thought he was signing for Oldham... good pedigree don't know how he is these days though?)

We desperately need a decent striker in!

Agree with everything you say apart from Vassell.

Mangan is a good signing (annoyed about the fee though) as he has gone on record himself saying that he hasn't been injured since last January so if he stays fit for the next 6 months then we should have goals.

Grimmer is another decent signing, did very well during his spell last year and is definitely a step up from Grandison and Tootle.

Cole is very inconsistent but there aren't many young lads that go out on loan that perform on a consistent basis. When he's on form he's he causes defenders problems with his pace and dribbling. Pleased as he could prove to be important in our fight.

Vassell, sure he hasn't scored many in his short career but I believe he's been played out wide more than he has upfront during that time? He'll bring much needed pace to the team which is currently lacking massively. Happy to give the lad a chance.

Hope Wellens doesn't join, has I'm not certain on this, but some Doncaster fans say he was on a fair bit and I don't want the club to blow more funds on players that are awful or past it.

The main Disappointment during this window so far is the departure of Collins! Hope we have a recall clause in the contract if needed for the run in.

4 in (including loan extension) and 4 out so far in the first week of the January transfer window. A lot more to come yet as, certainly never a dull moment down the meadow

Wellens has now been confirmed to have signed an 18 month deal at the age of 35! Brilliant