The Real Championship Table 2019-20

[Kenneth E End]

95
94
93 - Assured Championship
----------------------------------
92
91
90
89
88 - Assured Promotion
-----------------------------------
87 -
86
85 Projected Champions
84
83
82
81
80
79 - Assured Playoffs / Projected Promotion
----------------------------------
78
77
76
75
74 - Leeds United (need 11 points to win the Championship from 7 games)
73
72
71 - West Bromwich Albion (need 8 points to get promoted to the Premier League but 17 points to win the division from 7 games)
70
69
68 - Projected Playoffs
---------------------------------
67
66 - Brentford (need 19 points from 7 games to get promoted to the Premier League)
65
64 - Fulham / Assured Safety (need to win all of their remaining games to realistically get automatically promoted)
---------------------------------
63
62
61 - Nottingham Forest (need 7 points from 8 games to get into the play offs)
60 - Cardiff City (need 8 points from 8 games to get into the play offs)
59
58
57 - Derby County, Preston North End (both need 11 points from 7 games to get into the play offs).
56 - Blackburn Rovers, Swansea City
55 - Millwall, Bristol City
54
53
52
51 - Projected Safety
----------------------------------
50 - Queens Park Rangers
49 - Reading, Birmingham City, Sheffield Wednesday (points deduction pending)
48
47 - Wigan Athletic (need 4 points from 7 games to stay up)
46
45 - Charlton Athletic / Projected Bottom Side (need 6 points from 7 games to stay up)
44 - Middlesbrough (need 7 points from 7 games to stay up)
43 - Stoke City (need 8 points from 7 games to stay up)
42 - Hull City, Huddersfield Town (need 9 points from 7 games to stay up; Huddersfield have an extra game in hand)
41
40
39 - Luton Town (need 12 points from 7 games to stay up)
38 - Barnsley (need 13 points from 7 games to stay up)

Going by this projection, all three sides could well be in with a shout of staying up on the last day.

 

[That Fat Centre Half]

Not sure I could take it coming down to the last day!

Just got to get through the Leeds game without injuries and hopefully without being pummelled too badly and see what we can do. The fixtures we have give us a chance but its a big ask.

The Barnsley, Huddersfield and Hull games could be huge

 

[Kenneth E End]

Well I say last day, because the EFL on their wisdom have staggered it over a Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

[Super_horns]

That could be rather controversial!

EDIT:

Not sure actually as there are no set dates for the last 2 round of games.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/scores-fixtures/2020-07

 

[MagpieBee]

Interesting view, though some of the calculations look off! We need 11 more points than West Brom to get promoted but are only 5 points behind?

 

[Kenneth E End]

Interesting view, though some of the calculations look off! We need 11 more points than West Brom to get promoted but are only 5 points behind?

Based on points projections.

 

[Kenneth E End]

93 - Assured Championship
----------------------------------
92
91
90
89
88 - Assured Promotion
-----------------------------------
87
86 - Projected Champions
85
84
83
82
81
80 - Projected Promotion
79 - Assured Playoffs
----------------------------------
78
77
76
75 - Leeds United (need 11 points to win the Championship from 6 games)
74 - West Bromwich Albion (need 6 points to get promoted to the Premier League but 13 points to win the division from 6 games)
73
72
71
70 - Projected Playoffs
---------------------------------
69 - Brentford (need to win all of their remaining games to get promoted)
68
67 - Fulham, Nottingham Forest (both need 3 points from 6 games to get into the play offs)
66
65
64
63
62
61 - Cardiff City (need 9 points from 6 games to get into the play offs)
60 - Derby County (need 10 points from 6 games to get into the play offs) Assured Safety
---------------------------------
59
58
57 - Preston North End, Swansea City (both need 13 points from 6 games to get into the play offs).
56 - Blackburn Rovers, Millwall
55 - Bristol City
54
53
52 - Sheffield Wednesday (points deduction pending)
51
50 - Queens Park Rangers
49 - Reading, Birmingham City
48 - Projected Safety*
----------------------------------
47 -
46 - Charlton Athletic (need 2 points from 6 games to stay up)
45 - Huddersfield Town, Hull City (need 3 points from 6 games to stay up)
44 - Middlesbrough (need 4 points from 6 games to stay up) Projected Bottom Side
43 - Stoke City (need 5 points from 6 games to stay up)
42
41 - Barnsley (need 7 points from 6 games to stay up)
40 - Luton Town (need 8 points from 6 games to stay up)
39
38 - Wigan Athletic (points deduction pending)
37
36
35
34
33
32
31 - Sheffield Wednesday (Based on maximum sanction of 21 points - subject to appeal. This would reduce the safety line to 47 points. Sheffield Wednesday would then need to win 5 and draw 1 of all of their remaining games to stay up. If the club do appeal, it is likely that the appeal would need to be heard before the end of July if it wasn't pushed to next season.)

*Based on Wigan Athletic staying up by less than 12 points.

From a purely selfish point of view, we need Wigan to play all of their remaining games and not have any results expunged... we would lose 4 points!

 

[Kenneth E End]

538 Model:

Team, % relegation this morning -> % now (change)

Huddersfield, 8% -> 9% (+1%)
Middlesbrough 10% -> 17% (+7%)
Charlton 14% -> 15% (+1%)
Hull 36% -> 21% (-14%)
Stoke 24% -> 25% (+1%)
Barnsley 63% -> 65% (+2%)
Wigan 69% -> 71% (+2%)
Luton 73% -> 76% (+3%)

 

[That Fat Centre Half]

If we don’t win both of the next 2 then I think that’s it for us, in realistic terms at least, in paper it might be doable but...yeah.

If a a few results elsewhere had gone our way of late we might have had a longer length of rope to play with but there is no longer any room for error really.

 

[Kenneth E End]

FIVE GAMES TO GO

93 - Assured Championship
----------------------------------
92
91
90
89
88 - Assured Promotion
-----------------------------------
87 - Projected Champions
86 -
85
84
83
82 - Projected Promotion
81
80 -
79 -
78 - Leeds United (mathematically need 9 points to win the Championship from 5 games)
77 - Assured Playoffs West Bromwich Albion (need 5 points to get promoted to the Premier League but 11 points to win the division from 5 games)
----------------------------------
76
75 -
74 -
73
72 - Brentford (need to win all of their remaining games to get promoted)
71
70 - Fulham
69 - Projected Playoffs
---------------------------------
68 - Nottingham Forest
67
66
65
64 - Cardiff City (need 5 points from 5 games to get into the play offs)
63
62
61 - Derby County (need 12 points from 5 games to get into the play offs)
60 - Swansea City (need 13 points from 5 games to get into the play offs) Assured Safety
---------------------------------
59 - Millwall (need to win all of their remaining games to get into the play offs)
58 - Preston North End (need to win all of their remaining games to get into the play offs)
57
56 - Blackburn Rovers
55 - Bristol City
54 - Projected 12th Place
----------------------------------
53 - Queens Park Rangers
52 - Reading, Sheffield Wednesday (points deduction pending)
51
50
49 - Birmingham City
48
47 - Projected Safety*
----------------------------------
46 - Stoke City, Charlton Athletic, Huddersfield Town (need 1 point from 5 games to stay up)
45 - Hull City (need 2 points from 6 games to stay up)
44 - Middlesbrough (need 3 points from 5 games to stay up)
43 - Projected Bottom Side
42
41 - Barnsley (need 6 points from 5 games to stay up)
40 - Luton Town (need 7 points from 5 games to stay up)
39
38 - Wigan Athletic (points deduction pending)
37
36
35
34
33
32
31 - Sheffield Wednesday (Based on maximum sanction of 21 points - subject to appeal. This would reduce the safety line to 46 points. Sheffield Wednesday would then need to win 5 all of their remaining games to stay up. If the club do appeal, it is likely that the appeal would need to be heard before the end of July if it wasn't pushed to next season.)

*Based on Wigan Athletic staying up by less than 12 points.

 

[Kenneth E End]

THREE GAMES TO GO

93 - Highest Points Possible
92
91 - Assured Championship
90
89 -
88 - Projected Champions Assured Promotion
-----------------------------------
87
86
85
84 - Projected Promotion
83
82 -
81 - Leeds United, West Bromwich Albion (Leeds need 7 points to win the Championship from 4 games, both need 1 win for promotion to the Premier League)
80 -
79 -
78 - Brentford (need to win all of their remaining games)
77
76 - Fulham (unlikely they will overturn the deficit for automatic promotion)
75
74 - Assured Playoffs
----------------------------------
73
72
71
70
69 - Nottingham Forest Projected Playoffs
---------------------------------
68 -
67
66
65
64 - Cardiff City (need 5 points from 3 games to get into the play offs)
63 - Swansea City (need 6 points from 4 games to get into the play offs)
62 - Millwall, Preston North End (both need 7 points from 3 games to get into the play offs)
61 - Derby County, Bristol City (need to win all of their remaining games to get into the play offs) Projected 12th Place
----------------------------------
60 - Blackburn Rovers (need to win all of their remaining games to get into the play offs)
59 -
58
57
56 - Reading
55 - Sheffield Wednesday (points deduction pending) Assured Safety
---------------------------------
54 -
53 - Queens Park Rangers
52 -
51
50
49 - Birmingham City
48 - Projected Safety*
----------------------------------
47 - Huddersfield Town, Middlesbrough (need 1 point from 3 games to stay up)
46 - Stoke City, Charlton Athletic (need 2 points to stay up) Projected Bottom Side
45 - Hull City (need 2 points from 6 games to stay up)
44 - Luton Town (need 4 points from 3 games to stay up)
43 - Barnsley (need 5 points from 3 games to stay up)
42 - Wigan Athletic (points deduction pending)
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34 - Sheffield Wednesday (Based on maximum sanction of 21 points - subject to appeal. This would reduce the safety line to 47 points. Sheffield Wednesday would then be mathematically relegated. If the club do appeal, it is likely that the appeal would need to be heard before the end of July if it wasn't pushed to next season.)

*Based on Wigan Athletic staying up by less than 12 points.

 

[Kenneth E End]

TWO GAMES TO GO

93 - Highest Points Possible
92
91
90
89 - Assured Championship
88 - Assured Promotion Leeds United
87 - Projected Champions
-----------------------------------
86 - Projected Promotion
85
84 -
83
82 - West Bromwich Albion (need 4 points from 2 games for promotion)
81 - Brentford (need to win all of their remaining games)
80
79
78
77 - Fulham (will be in the play offs)
76
75
74
73
72 - Assured Playoffs
----------------------------------
71
70 - Nottingham Forest
69 - Projected Playoffs
---------------------------------
68 -
67 - Cardiff City (need 2 points from 2 games to get into the play offs)
66
65 - Millwall (need 4 points from 2 games to get into the play offs)
64 - Swansea City (need to win their remaining games to get into the play offs)
63
62 - Preston North End, Bristol City (mathematically improbable to make the play offs)
61 - Derby County, (mathematically improbable to make the play offs) Projected 12th Place
----------------------------------
60 - Blackburn Rovers (season over)
59 -
58
57
56 - Reading (season over), Sheffield Wednesday (points deduction pending)
55 -
54 - Queens Park Rangers (season over)
53 -
52 - Assured Safety
---------------------------------
51
50 - Birmingham City, Middlesbrough, Stoke City,
49
48 - Huddersfield Town, Projected Safety*
----------------------------------
47 - Charlton Athletic (need 1 point from 2 games to stay up)
46
45 - Hull City. Luton Town (need 3 points from 2 games to stay up, Luton need 4 because of GD) Projected Bottom Side *Wigan Athletic with 12 point deduction
44 - (need 4 points from 3 games to stay up)
43 - Barnsley (need 5 points from 3 games to stay up)
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35 - Sheffield Wednesday (Based on maximum sanction of 21 points - subject to appeal. This would reduce the safety line to 47 points. Sheffield Wednesday would then be mathematically relegated. If the club do appeal, it is likely that the appeal would need to be heard before the end of July if it wasn't pushed to next season.)

*Based on Wigan Athletic staying up by more than 12 points (current scenario)