The Relegation Thread

[valefan16]

Looking at this from a League Two perspective, I think the bottom 5 have gone an awfully long time without a relegation which I find very unique. I remember Cambridge and Oxford going down to non league in 2005 and 2006 respectively, I know Morecambe have apparently never been relegated and I know that FGR got reprieved once or twice in the Conference before Vince took over. I can't for the life of me recall an Accrington relegation either!

It does make you think though that whoever goes down may really struggle to adapt to a relegation and the consequences that come with it. Personally, I feel Oxford and Cambridge would do well in League Two next season but this is the first big setback in the FGR project under Vince and Accrington and Morecambe will almost certainly have to tighten their belts at the lower level with gates dropping and they'll find it tougher to compete to sign players at the lower level. I could easily see 2 or 3 of the relegated sides struggling next season in L2. I thought last seasons bottom 4 were diabolical (especially us) and it's shown this season that none of us were anywhere near promotion...

Would be interesting to see how Accrington and Morecambe get on next season as they’ve both massively over achieved just to get into League One and often in those cases you see those sort of sides severely struggle.

Cambridge is a funny one as their promotion was really out of the blue and had always been a mid to lower end league two side since coming back into the league, depends on Bonner to a degree.

FGR depends on Vince, if as seems he’s lost a bit of interest it may be hard for them and coming down with such a poor points haul would be difficult to turn around in a summer, similar to yourselves for instance.

Oxford would have finance to bounce back into a promotion challenge you’d think, MK maybe similar.

No idea on us. We won promotion on a huge clear out so no reason we couldn’t do it again assuming DC stays and Harrison should be pretty lethal in League Two and Conlon is back at his best level and Forrester should really come into his own, we don’t know contract lengths but it Ojo is under contract he would be stand out. Depends on recruitment I guess but you’d hope we’d be financially able to compete nearer the top than bottom and have the experience, relying on Flickers to get it right again though is risky and may be hit by a late relegation where we have to tear up recruitment planning at the last minute like last season.

 

[valefan16]

Amazes me how much vale fans are thinking they are going down, yet are only 2 points behind us and we are thinking about joining the mid table thread. You will be staying up.

You’re in form and have 6 to play.

 

[coronakopite]

Amazes me how much vale fans are thinking they are going down, yet are only 2 points behind us and we are thinking about joining the mid table thread. You will be staying up.

I have a cousin and friends who are Vale fans. I was saying something similar to them in the pub, before and after we beat them.

Their last win was against MK at the beginning of March, 2 weeks before you beat them. They'd just lost at Morecambe (and 4 others) and drawn with Accrington in February. Our win at theirs was only our 2nd this year at the time. They've consistently failed against sides at the bottom as well as the better sides this year and they've had 4 red cards in the last 3 games.

They now only have 4 more games (to your 6) and will be strong favourites to lose 3 (Ipswich, Charlton away and Plymouth). 46/47 points may be enough to survive but if they get nothing against Bristol next Saturday it will certainly be squeaky bum time for them..

 

[valefan16]

One odd undercurrent that could materialise is if it becomes between us and Oxford on the last day…

You could have Matty Taylor score the winner to keep us up and send his parent club down… or we are forced to play Jack Stevens and he makes another balls up to keep them up or saves a penalty to keep us up and send them down.

 

[coronakopite]

Amazes me how much vale fans are thinking they are going down, yet are only 2 points behind us and we are thinking about joining the mid table thread. You will be staying up.

I'm glad you're relaxing and feeling safe .......... because there's a (very optimistic) scenario where we're above you going into our final games (FGR for us and MK for you). We'd need to beat Wycombe at the Abbey on Tuesday and Accrington on the penultimate Saturday (writing off Plymouth away) and you'd need to start losing rather than winning against promotion contenders (and Lincoln). So I know its a bit far fetched.

Hopefully you've put the cat among the promotion pigeons in your next two games and are on the beach by the time we play you. The Pirelli is a happy hunting ground for me.

But I'm getting ahead of myself again.

 

[kieran_vale]

These things will change by the game so there’s always going to be some recency bias based on the latest result. Who knows maybe we find a way for Rory Holden or someone to Happy Gilmore one in the net off his arse on Tuesday and surprise Ipswich and all of a sudden things would look a lot more rosy. Doubtful of course. Completely choked in our pursuit of the mid table trophy though.

 

[valefan16]

These things will change by the game so there’s always going to be some recency bias based on the latest result. Who knows maybe we find a way for Rory Holden or someone to Happy Gilmore one in the net off his arse on Tuesday and surprise Ipswich and all of a sudden things would look a lot more rosy. Doubtful of course. Completely choked in our pursuit of the mid table trophy though.

Pre Xmas we would be fancying going to Ipswich and causing them a bloody nose regardless of their form, it worked at Plymouth and Derby and were the type of games we thrived off. Such a downfall.

 

[Bartonyellow]

I'm glad you're relaxing and feeling safe .......... because there's a (very optimistic) scenario where we're above you going into our final games (FGR for us and MK for you). We'd need to beat Wycombe at the Abbey on Tuesday and Accrington on the penultimate Saturday (writing off Plymouth away) and you'd need to start losing rather than winning against promotion contenders (and Lincoln). So I know its a bit far fetched.

Hopefully you've put the cat among the promotion pigeons in your next two games and are on the beach by the time we play you. The Pirelli is a happy hunting ground for me.

But I'm getting ahead of myself again.

We have a shite record against you so you will beat us 1-0.
I think last season we gifted you 2 or 3 own goals in one game even.
For the other teams sake, they will hope we put in a professional performance against you as this game is the week running up to the finale.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

I'm beginning to get the sense that Oxford Utd are more likely to join us in the depths than Cambridge Utd.

Good for Cambridge U, if so, I'm very fond of them, but they offer an immeasurably better awayday and general stadium experience than the bloody Kassam-several-miles-from-anywhere-you'd-want-to-go, that can't be knocked down soon enough. That said, I'd love Oxford City to come up, so bring it on.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I have felt pretty comfortable all along, in spite of our terrible form, as I always thought that we'd pick up a win or 2 in the past 4 or 5 games but now I'm pretty resigned to it.

It's starting to feel a bit similar to our last relegation, whereby we started the season well and then absolutely fell like a stone.

We've had all the necessary ingredients for a relegation season too. 3 or 4 of the worst refereeing performances I've ever seen. An injury crisis up front, then in defence and now in midfield. A manager that purportedly wanted to go somewhere else mid season. An unprecedented streak of goals flying in from outside of the box , via freak strikes, deflections, one in a hundred shots. Two of the worst goalkeepers in the division. A January transfer window that's made us far weaker. All sorts of Rumours flying about.

We've gone from being a club that seemed to be really going places and really together to an absolute car crash within a year. Again.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if we didn't get another point this season. We're a complete mess, a lot of players either know they're leaving or don't care.

We can't go back down to league 2 again, it's a right bastard to get out of and you're one bad season away from non league. We simply have to find something from somewhere but I just don't see it.

 

[ShrimpsMeltdown]

Looking at this from a League Two perspective, I think the bottom 5 have gone an awfully long time without a relegation which I find very unique. I remember Cambridge and Oxford going down to non league in 2005 and 2006 respectively, I know Morecambe have apparently never been relegated and I know that FGR got reprieved once or twice in the Conference before Vince took over. I can't for the life of me recall an Accrington relegation either!

It does make you think though that whoever goes down may really struggle to adapt to a relegation and the consequences that come with it. Personally, I feel Oxford and Cambridge would do well in League Two next season but this is the first big setback in the FGR project under Vince and Accrington and Morecambe will almost certainly have to tighten their belts at the lower level with gates dropping and they'll find it tougher to compete to sign players at the lower level. I could easily see 2 or 3 of the relegated sides struggling next season in L2. I thought last seasons bottom 4 were diabolical (especially us) and it's shown this season that none of us were anywhere near promotion...

We are also having a lot of ownership issues off the pitch, which is probably the main reason as to why we are where we are this season, so who knows what state we'll be in for 23/24.

Massive win this weekend but I think we've left it too late to stay up now. However yes until it's official, we've never been relegated.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I have felt pretty comfortable all along, in spite of our terrible form, as I always thought that we'd pick up a win or 2 in the past 4 or 5 games but now I'm pretty resigned to it.

It's starting to feel a bit similar to our last relegation, whereby we started the season well and then absolutely fell like a stone.

We've had all the necessary ingredients for a relegation season too. 3 or 4 of the worst refereeing performances I've ever seen. An injury crisis up front, then in defence and now in midfield. A manager that purportedly wanted to go somewhere else mid season. An unprecedented streak of goals flying in from outside of the box , via freak strikes, deflections, one in a hundred shots. Two of the worst goalkeepers in the division. A January transfer window that's made us far weaker. All sorts of Rumours flying about.

We've gone from being a club that seemed to be really going places and really together to an absolute car crash within a year. Again.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if we didn't get another point this season. We're a complete mess, a lot of players either know they're leaving or don't care.

We can't go back down to league 2 again, it's a right bastard to get out of and you're one bad season away from non league. We simply have to find something from somewhere but I just don't see it.

Another reason to add to the list....sack manager with 4 games to go. This has all the hallmarks of a relegation.

 

[joethegill]

At least one of Accrington and Morecambe to stay up please, just cannot be arsed with those trip next season. Perfect scenario for me would be Cambridge, MK and Oxford to join FGR as they're all within an hour or so from where I live in Northamptonshire, particularly as it looks like we could easily be giving League One Northampton and Stevenage.

Much prefer you get Bradford, Stockport and Salford/Carlisle to join Orient which is still a possibility!

 

[longmover]

On a side note sad to see FGR go, worked hard to get to this level and hasn’t worked out.

Hopefully a positive end to their campaign, you guys remember how we beat Exeter for you to win the title… could do with calling that favour back in…

fgr under Dale Vince haven't worked hard for anything, just thrown cash at it till it works.

 

[Chris FGR]

That's true to an extent, we did do more of that in the National League and are certainly reliant on Vince's backing and would have never got near League 1 without it. However we have built slowly in the EFL and apparently only had the 12th biggest budget in League 2 last season so in relative terms to better supported clubs we weren't throwing huge amounts at it. Part of the reason we lost our best players on frees as well.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I have felt pretty comfortable all along, in spite of our terrible form, as I always thought that we'd pick up a win or 2 in the past 4 or 5 games but now I'm pretty resigned to it.

It's starting to feel a bit similar to our last relegation, whereby we started the season well and then absolutely fell like a stone.

We've had all the necessary ingredients for a relegation season too. 3 or 4 of the worst refereeing performances I've ever seen. An injury crisis up front, then in defence and now in midfield. A manager that purportedly wanted to go somewhere else mid season. An unprecedented streak of goals flying in from outside of the box , via freak strikes, deflections, one in a hundred shots. Two of the worst goalkeepers in the division. A January transfer window that's made us far weaker. All sorts of Rumours flying about.

We've gone from being a club that seemed to be really going places and really together to an absolute car crash within a year. Again.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if we didn't get another point this season. We're a complete mess, a lot of players either know they're leaving or don't care.

We can't go back down to league 2 again, it's a right bastard to get out of and you're one bad season away from non league. We simply have to find something from somewhere but I just don't see it.

You may only need to beat us which is very do-able considering we've lost to the likes of Accrington and Morecambe away from home. That would give a 9 point gap

 

[Laker]

You may only need to beat us which is very do-able considering we've lost to the likes of Accrington and Morecambe away from home. That would give a 9 point gap

I don’t see us getting nine points. Somewhere around 5-8 is doable but not nine. And I’d say the same for Oxford. Port Vale only need one win.

 

[valefan16]

I don’t see us getting nine points. Somewhere around 5-8 is doable but not nine. And I’d say the same for Oxford. Port Vale only need one win.

One win should do it, that would require MK getting 5 from 4 games also so the chances of all 3 scenario's happening become slim.

Just finding that win... if we get it then it would be last game against Plymouth (who we are a real bogey side for) we wouldn't make it comfortable and easy for our fan base, we never do.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

One win should do it, that would require MK getting 5 from 4 games also so the chances of all 3 scenario's happening become slim.

Just finding that win... if we get it then it would be last game against Plymouth (who we are a real bogey side for) we wouldn't make it comfortable and easy for our fan base, we never do.

Best chance of that would be against us on Sat. Charlton are nothing but seem to be better at home. May as well rest better players for us although you do seem down to the bare bones as it is

 

[valefan16]

Best chance of that would be against us on Sat. Charlton are nothing but seem to be better at home. May as well rest better players for us although you do seem down to the bare bones as it is

We should be in a better position player wise for Saturday as Ojo is back from his ban and Robinson is only a 1 match ban I believe, obviously Conlon we don't really know what he actually saw red for as to if that's a 1 or 3 match ban!

Charlton would depend how on the beach they are by then.. oddly the reverse fixture to that Crosby managed due to DC going through the inquest.

 

[Laker]

Best chance of that would be against us on Sat. Charlton are nothing but seem to be better at home. May as well rest better players for us although you do seem down to the bare bones as it is

Yeah, without meaning to talk Rovers down, Vale should be able to beat them at home. And I know they’ve lost to poorer sides at home (us for example), that should still be seen as a good opportunity and a much better one than Plymouth who’ll be going for the title!

 

[kieran_vale]

We should be in a better position player wise for Saturday as Ojo is back from his ban and Robinson is only a 1 match ban I believe, obviously Conlon we don't really know what he actually saw red for as to if that's a 1 or 3 match ban!

Charlton would depend how on the beach they are by then.. oddly the reverse fixture to that Crosby managed due to DC going through the inquest.

In Robinsons case can we apply for an extension to that ban? Right now if was taking an aim at it I would say we will draw with Rovers on Saturday in some dour 0-0 and then pull one out the bag at Charlton.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

We should be in a better position player wise for Saturday as Ojo is back from his ban and Robinson is only a 1 match ban I believe, obviously Conlon we don't really know what he actually saw red for as to if that's a 1 or 3 match ban!

Charlton would depend how on the beach they are by then.. oddly the reverse fixture to that Crosby managed due to DC going through the inquest.

There are lots of surprising results at the end of a season so who knows. You may well be ok with the points you have and have just shat the bed a bit prematurely

 

[valefan16]

Yeah, without meaning to talk Rovers down, Vale should be able to beat them at home. And I know they’ve lost to poorer sides at home (us for example), that should still be seen as a good opportunity and a much better one than Plymouth who’ll be going for the title!

Yeah but that's more typical Vale! We got battered 4-0 at Oxford the away game before going to Argyle a beating them 2-0, Beat Derby away 2-1 and just scraped a 2-2 against FGR at home a week later.

Beating Rovers and relaxing for the last couple of games just doesn't happen!

 

[Arbury]

I don’t see us getting nine points. Somewhere around 5-8 is doable but not nine. And I’d say the same for Oxford. Port Vale only need one win.

For what it’s worth I think we’ll get the 3 wins.

KTF

 

[SVH]

I think we'll get 8 points from our remaining 5 games.

Wycombe - Draw
Plymouth - Loss
Accrington - Win
Burton - Draw
FGR - Win

 

[Laker]

For what it’s worth I think we’ll get the 3 wins.

KTF

I think we can get three wins but I don’t think we will.

I think tomorrow night against Wycombe will be really tough, especially after the high on Saturday. We’ll do well to get a draw in that. It will require a similar level of intensity to Saturday to beat them and that’s very hard to do only three days later.

Plymouth away is a nightmare fixture and I can’t see anything other than a defeat there.

Accrington away is tough but winnable, especially with a week to prepare.

Burton away is also very tough. Again it’s winnable and they’ll likely be safe by then which should work in our favour.

Forest Green are down, despondent and on the beach now. We should beat them.

That’s how I get to 5-8 points. Edit: what svh has put in his post seems pretty reasonable.

 

[kieran_vale]

I think we can get three wins but I don’t think we will.

I think tomorrow night against Wycombe will be really tough, especially after the high on Saturday. We’ll do well to get a draw in that. It will require a similar level of intensity to Saturday to beat them and that’s very hard to do only three days later.

Plymouth away is a nightmare fixture and I can’t see anything other than a defeat there.

Accrington away is tough but winnable, especially with a week to prepare.

Burton away is also very tough. Again it’s winnable and they’ll likely be safe by then which should work in our favour.

Forest Green are down, despondent and on the beach now. We should beat them.

That’s how I get to 5-8 points. Edit: what svh has put in his post seems pretty reasonable.

Looking at those fixtures Accy would be the key one I’d say. They have three games you’d expect them to lose so it’s feasible they might be relegated by the time you play them or last chance saloon so they just throw everything they have at you.

 

[thewwfc]

I think we can get three wins but I don’t think we will.

I think tomorrow night against Wycombe will be really tough, especially after the high on Saturday. We’ll do well to get a draw in that. It will require a similar level of intensity to Saturday to beat them and that’s very hard to do only three days later.

Oh I dunno, I think we could be pretty deflated after Saturday, knowing that we've pretty much fucked it.

Obviously no-one will admit that, but in terms of who will be more up for it, I think it'd be your lot.

 

[kieran_vale]

Not much changed tonight other than Oxford seem to have turned into Lincoln with all the draws. For us get at least a point on Saturday and I think that will do. I’d say the one who should probably be most concerned tonight is MK. Put a lot of pressure on them at Fleetwood that has.