The Relegation Thread

[Bartonyellow]

To be fair Sky have us 1000/1 for relegation but I am still going to be nervously tracking the Oxford score tomorrow.

Oddly Burton could be our insurance policy if they lose at Lincoln tomorrow, you'd then assume they'd lose at Argyle as they could go up at the weekend which would mean Burton lose all 4 if all 10 results go against us saving us!

I doubt we would lose all 4.
2 maybe. Argyle is the coupon buster - we will win 1-0 there and then lose at home to Cambridge..it’s what we do.

 

[denzel ecfc]

To be fair Sky have us 1000/1 for relegation but I am still going to be nervously tracking the Oxford score tomorrow.

Oddly Burton could be our insurance policy if they lose at Lincoln tomorrow, you'd then assume they'd lose at Argyle as they could go up at the weekend which would mean Burton lose all 4 if all 10 results go against us saving us!

Dammit, I only got 500-1.
Ain't going to happen of course, but it pay for my season ticket if it came off....

 

[Laker]

I agree. If Oxford or ourselves can't win 2 of our remaining 3 games, we'll deserve our fate.

If MK can get a win at Burton (or against Barnsley ) or even two draws, then we'll need at least 7 points from the 3 to survive. But I think we're as likely to do that as MK to pass 44 points.

With a following wind, it's doable and we'll certainly be giving it a go.

The Predictor thinks we'll fall short:

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

	Played	W	D	L	Points	Total
Oxford	3	2	-	1	6	47
MK	2	-	2	-	2	45
Cambridge	3	1	1	1	4	44

My best guess (and basis for optimism) is:

	Played	W	D	L	Points
Oxford	3	2	-	1	6
MK	2	-	1	1	1
Cambridge	3	2		1	6

I think my issue with the concept of us finishing above Dons is as follows:

We both have Burton away and there’s no logic behind predicting our score to be better than Dons’ result there (the reality might be different but it’s a fair assumption if you’re modelling it that we’ll match their result).

So that leaves us three points behind to close from our other two games (assuming they lose to Barnsley which again is a fair assumption) and I do see that is feasible to close with our home game against Forest Green. But we’ll still likely be behind on GD (unless Dons get smashed).

So putting it bluntly, we really need to be beating (or possibly drawing with) Accrington. That’s going to be a hell of a game as they will likely be down without beating us. It’s such an impossible game to predict.

 

[valefan16]

I doubt we would lose all 4.
2 maybe. Argyle is the coupon buster - we will win 1-0 there and then lose at home to Cambridge..it’s what we do.

Yeah exactly but the point was lose tomorrow and against Argyle and we are pretty much done due to the GD swing if MK and Cambridge beat you and if you beat them they can’t catch us anyway so would virtually kill any chance of us dropping.

 

[coronakopite]

I think my issue with the concept of us finishing above Dons is as follows:

We both have Burton away and there’s no logic behind predicting our score to be better than Dons’ result there (the reality might be different but it’s a fair assumption if you’re modelling it that we’ll match their result).

So that leaves us three points behind to close from our other two games (assuming they lose to Barnsley which again is a fair assumption) and I do see that is feasible to close with our home game against Forest Green. But we’ll still likely be behind on GD (unless Dons get smashed).

So putting it bluntly, we really need to be beating (or possibly drawing with) Accrington. That’s going to be a hell of a game as they will likely be down without beating us. It’s such an impossible game to predict.

My extra bit of optimism depends on Bolton beating them tomorrow night. If that happens, they can't catch Oxford (or MK). Should they get something at Bolton, they'll still be in the mix on Saturday (although I still think they'll go down) and John Coleman will come into his own. Whatever, it'll be a hell of a game and it's a pity the open terrace will be empty.

That said, my logic has been:

1. I thought we were gone.
2. If we can get to 46 points there's a chance and 47 should be enough.
3. Having seen recent performances and personnel available, I'll be hoping for wins at Accrington and Burton. I'll travel to those games with more optimism than I've had all season.
4. It's not the Cambridge way and if we're still dependent on other results by the final Sunday, we'll get what we deserve.

I'll still have enjoyed the journey far more that I expected to in Dec/Jan.

 

[WhiteRussian]

No more points for us. It all depends if abyone can get a few extra.

 

[Laker]

My extra bit of optimism depends on Bolton beating them tomorrow night. If that happens, they can't catch Oxford (or MK). Should they get something at Bolton, they'll still be in the mix on Saturday (although I still think they'll go down) and John Coleman will come into his own. Whatever, it'll be a hell of a game and it's a pity the open terrace will be empty.

That said, my logic has been:

1. I thought we were gone.
2. If we can get to 46 points there's a chance and 47 should be enough.
3. Having seen recent performances and personnel available, I'll be hoping for wins at Accrington and Burton. I'll travel to those games with more optimism than I've had all season.
4. It's not the Cambridge way and if we're still dependent on other results by the final Sunday, we'll get what we deserve.

I'll still have enjoyed the journey far more that I expected to in Dec/Jan.

Hey I’m hopeful and I completely agree that the last few games have made the season a hell of a lot more enjoyable than it looked like it was going to be. I’m just also preparing for the worst as a sort of self preservation thing! Fwiw, I’ve not believed we’re going to be relegated for many years, going back to when we lost 5-0 v Crawley and York in back to back games. It’s not my standard mindset!

 

[DippyDon]

Don’t you bloody start, the Vale lot were trotting out that line about two weeks ago.

I really hope I'm as wrong as they were, but given how poorly we've played the last two games going into Barnsley at home and an in form Burton at the Pirelli in need of something really doesn't fill me with any confidence.

 

[bigfatron]

Hey I’m hopeful and I completely agree that the last few games have made the season a hell of a lot more enjoyable than it looked like it was going to be. I’m just also preparing for the worst as a sort of self preservation thing! Fwiw, I’ve not believed we’re going to be relegated for many years, going back to when we lost 5-0 v Crawley and York in back to back games. It’s not my standard mindset!

That 5-0 loss to York was the pits...., fortunately I missed the 5-0 at Histon in the Trophy.
I reckon we have a 50-50% chance of staying up - that will improve mightily if we can get a win at Accrington, but I fear we are done if we lose that game.

 

[joethegill]

Good luck to both Morecambe and Accrington in your bids to stay up. Your survival will be good for my petrol bills.

 

[Luke Imp]

It's a very unusual to have three sides (Accy, Cambridge and Oxford) who'll fancy their chances in at least two of their remaining games because they play each other. For that reason it's too close to call.

 

[Laker]

Good luck to both Morecambe and Accrington in your bids to stay up. Your survival will be good for my petrol bills.

Staying up will save us a fortune the way it’s going - Orient, Stevenage and Northampton coming up would be a hell of a lot better for us than Forest Green, Accrington and Morecambe!

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

Expected Oxford to get something tonight, didnt expect Accrington.

Another twist in the battle to stay up. Makes it even more difficult for Morecambe to survive

 

[kieran_vale]

I’m still backing Cambridge to survive even if they must have been thinking what the fuck with tonight’s results. Accy given themselves a chance but I still think they will just come up short.

 

[coronakopite]

I’m still backing Cambridge to survive even if they must have been thinking what the fuck with tonight’s results. Accy given themselves a chance but I still think they will just come up short.

If I were neutral I'd agree.

But we now definitely definitely need to win on Saturday and Bolton just experienced what it is to be Colemaned.

I know a guy who was playing at Accrington when John Coleman first arrived there and the tales he has of the antics they got up to in order to win a game are a masterclass in shithousing ... and he's been perfecting the detail of winning/drawing when you need to for decades since.

I think we can/should get to 46 points and if we do it by beating them, Accrington will be stuck on 44.

I've been focused on nul pointes MK but Morecambe can certainly get to 47 and stuff us both.

 

[ShrimpsMeltdown]

A bloody good win on Saturday but then the results couldn't have been any worse last night. The highs and lows!

Win this weekend and we take it to the final day (hopefully) I'm not looking forward to the long slog down to Exeter.

 

[Luke Imp]

Big results for Oxford and Accrington last night. Still can't call it, although you'd fancy Oxford at FGR on Saturday.

Accrington vs Cambridge...! Huge game for Morecambe against us because I'm not sure MK are getting anything at Barnsley (although I thought that about Accrington last night).

 

[denzel ecfc]

Can anyone confirm that Vale are mathematically safe? I put a ridiculous bet (50p) on at the weekend, bet365 have now settled it as lost.
But as far as I could see, Cambridge could win their three games, MK and Oxford their two and they could all overhaul Vale. Or am I missing something?

 

[Laker]

Can anyone confirm that Vale are mathematically safe? I put a ridiculous bet (50p) on at the weekend, bet365 have now settled it as lost.
But as far as I could see, Cambridge could win their three games, MK and Oxford their two and they could all overhaul Vale. Or am I missing something?

Yes technically us, Oxford and Dons could all win our final three games and overtake them. Massively unlikely mind and come 5pm on Saturday they’ll be mathematically safe.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Can anyone confirm that Vale are mathematically safe? I put a ridiculous bet (50p) on at the weekend, bet365 have now settled it as lost.
But as far as I could see, Cambridge could win their three games, MK and Oxford their two and they could all overhaul Vale. Or am I missing something?

Theoretically possible of course but pretty much zero chance of it happening. Doesn't stop some of our fans still worrying about it though!

 

[valefan16]

Can anyone confirm that Vale are mathematically safe? I put a ridiculous bet (50p) on at the weekend, bet365 have now settled it as lost.
But as far as I could see, Cambridge could win their three games, MK and Oxford their two and they could all overhaul Vale. Or am I missing something?

275/1 on most bookies.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

Technically not safe but it will take some extraordinary events (beyond Bristol Rovers v Scunny last season) for Vale not to stay up.

 

[thewwfc]

Technically not safe but it will take some extraordinary events (beyond Bristol Rovers v Scunny last season) for Vale not to stay up.

I don't know though, you know what refs are like in this division, wouldn't put it past one of them just to randomly dock points in Vale's final game just for shits and giggles?

 

[leedsvaliant]

I don't know though, you know what refs are like in this division, wouldn't put it past one of them just to randomly dock points in Vale's final game just for shits and giggles?

I don't think you needed to duplicate the joke, it wasn't funny on the other thread.

 

[thewwfc]

I don't think you needed to duplicate the joke, it wasn't funny on the other thread.

Glad you enjoyed it, I'll keep it going as long as Vale fans keep having a disproportionate chip on their shoulder - so I don't expect it to be over any time soon.

 

[Laker]

Glad you enjoyed it, I'll keep it going as long as Vale fans keep having a disproportionate chip on their shoulder - so I don't expect it to be over any time soon.

I’m finding it funny, partly to help find humour in this season.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Think Oxford will get out of it now. Accrington probably left it a bit late, ditto Morecambe. I could conceivably see Cambridge swapping with MK Dons. Blatantly it will go down to the last few minutes of the final day.

 

[Chris FGR]

Oxford are in real trouble, what with facing a wounded animal like us tomorrow. They won’t know what’s hit them. They are by no means safe yet if/when we turn them over.

 

[Laker]

Oxford are in real trouble, what with facing a wounded animal like us tomorrow. They won’t know what’s hit them. They are by no means safe yet if/when we turn them over.

They’ll be fine because we’ve got to play you as well. So even if they get a hammering then we’re in for it final day too. :-(

 

[Essex2Wessex]

The bigger team in Oxford will be visiting for our festival of football. Last year the equivalent fixture got our biggest home crowd (and smallest away crowd) of the season, and an unanticipated, humilitating, walloping by Harrogate (plus some geezer with an inflatable giraffe). At least we know what's coming this time. Will certainly be a festival of something beginning with f.