The Relegation Thread

[mistermagic]

No way are Newcastle concerned by this. They already have 32 points which is already more than I think Leicester will achieve.
The key will be to see how the new managers fare. Can Sherwood reinvigorate Villa and can QPR start getting points away. If so, Hull and Sunderland are in big trouble. If not then Villa and QPR should go down along with Leicester.
Hull v QPR and Sunderland v West Brom are massive games this weekend.

 

[mistermagic]

A seperation of the relegation candidates has finally happened this weekend.

Leicester could only draw at Everton 2-2 as Upson's late OG levelled things with 2 minutes to go. However, the run of 4 straight defeats is over. Leicester are still bottom though with 18 points.
Then further up you have 3 teams on 22 points: Aston Villa, who lost at home to Stoke 1-2 which was Sherwood's first game in charge, Burnley, who earnt a draw at Chelsea 1-1 and QPR who lost at Hull 1-2.
These four should be down there till the very end as the rest of the pack are 3 points clear which is quite a bit when you consider that those teams are expected to lose every weekend.
So Sunderland, Hull, West Brom and Palace have pulled away somewhat but a bad run and they're back in there.

I do think that the bottom 4 will remain how it is now and reckon that Villa will scrape through at the very last minute. The 3 next games are absolutely massive for Sherwood: Newcastle (a), West Brom (h), Sunderland (a). They are also hosting Burnley on the final day which will be a massive game.

 

[smat]

Imo Villa will go down. Not enough quality and Sherwood is a huge risk. Hasn't proven himself with limited players (hasn't had a chance, but that's why it's a risk).

 

[Hank]

Our fixtures aren't too bad for the rest of the season, but my worry is we seem to be scrambling to safety one point at time. Also have feeling Poyet will walk at the end of the season.

 

[Villaboy]

I am hugely concerned for Villa right now...

I originally had buried my head in the sand and followed the 'we are too good to go down' camp, but now we are in the scrap of our lives...

Personally, I think we have had our fair share of escapes over the past 3 seasons and this season will be a step too far. It will only take the likes of Leicester, QPR and Burnley to string a couple of wins together and that will leave us really in deep shit..

That last game of the season away at Burnley could be the decider of which of Villa or Burnley stay up and I fear that Burnely have got more of a fight in them than Villa have..

 

[Smally]

We're very lucky that there are at least 3 teams worse than us. Martinez seems to be doing his best to take us down at the moment

 

[Techno Natch]

We're very lucky that there are at least 3 teams worse than us. Martinez seems to be doing his best to take us down at the moment

What's the attitude towards Martinez like at the moment?

 

[Smally]

What's the attitude towards Martinez like at the moment?

Not good to be honest. Keeps making mistakes in almost every line up now. Tim Howard has been garbage all season so we play Robles in goal, he keeps 3 clean sheets in a row, and as soon as Howard is fit again he gets put straight back in the team, we concede 4 goals which Howard should have done better on and the defence doesn't look solid anymore.

He also keeps picking central players like Barkley or Naismith to play on the left, which not only completely unbalances the midfield but also completely negates Baines' biggest strengths. We've barely attacked down the left the last few games and Martinez has done nothing to rectify it.

We've also spent most of the season playing Lukaku as a back to goal target man when he's just not that player. The last few games we've played to his strengths a bit more but it's taken that long to change our approach to him we've basically only got the Europa League left to play for. The squad we have should be comfortably in the top 7 but Martinez has been very poor this season, and at times seems incapable of recognising what is going wrong. I really want him to succeed but at the moment I can't see it happening

 

[thespus]

Not disputing that Everton shouldn't be doing significantly better, and I largely agree with what you say, but I can't believe "the squad we have should be comfortably in the top 7" is too optimistic. Both Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham have better squads and fewer holes. Everton may be the 7th strongest squad (battling it out with Southampton and West Ham), but comfortably in the top 7 seems far-fetched.

 

[EvertonPaul]

Not disputing that Everton shouldn't be doing significantly better, and I largely agree with what you say, but I can't believe "the squad we have should be comfortably in the top 7" is too optimistic. Both Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham have better squads and fewer holes. Everton may be the 7th strongest squad (battling it out with Southampton and West Ham), but comfortably in the top 7 seems far-fetched.

Far fetched? Really?

 

[Pagnell]

Chelsea
City
Liverpool
Arsenal
United
Spurs

All considerably better than Everton overall, some more than others, obviously. So if Everton can be defined as a team that should 'comfortably' be in the top 7, it will likely be in 7th. And, as thespus alluded to, I suspect Southampton in particular would have something to say about that these days.

As for Martinez, he seems to have saved what I expected from him in his debut Everton season for his second. Long may it continue.

 

[thespus]

Far fetched? Really?

Yes — for the reasons I stated. Why else would I have said it. I'm not saying they aren't potentially the 7th best squad, I just found it odd the poster claimed "the squad we have should comfortably finish in the top 7".

 

[Smally]

Considering near enough the same squad finished 5th the season before on 70+ points, I'd say yes we should. We have the players for it, but the manager has badly under performed this season

 

[Madejski]

The same, no improvements - Just an even older defence.

You don't improve, you move backwards.

 

[Pagnell]

Considering near enough the same squad finished 5th the season before on 70+ points, I'd say yes we should. We have the players for it, but the manager has badly under performed this season

A relevant point if the other teams hadn't improved and the likes of Southampton hadn't joined the mix.

 

[thespus]

Considering near enough the same squad finished 5th the season before on 70+ points, I'd say yes we should. We have the players for it, but the manager has badly under performed this season

Pagnell hit the nail on the head re: the futility of using last season's 5th place finish as certainty that you "comfortably" have a top 7 squad. Other teams have improved; that could have been a one-off and your aging players have regressed; etc. Besides, Moyes inherited the Champions — should he have comfortably finished in the top two? Or wasn't it obvious that squad had obvious flaws? I think Everton have good pieces to build a "comfortably" top 7 squad around in Stones, Baines, Coleman, McCarthy and Barkley, but there are obvious holes. Lukaku could maybe included, too, but I'm not his biggest fan.

 

[mistermagic]

With Leicester and QPR not playing this weekend due to the League Cup final, this is Villa and Burnley's chance to scrape some points ahead of the midweek games. Villa travel to Newcastle who still haven't won at home in 2015 and a game that Sherwood should look at taking points from while Burnley host Swansea. Another winnable game imo.
Also check Burnley's fixtues after the Swansea game: Liverpool (a), Man City (h), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Arsenal (h).

 

[G.B]

We always beat Villa at home. In fact we've won more games against Villa than any other side. Would be quite nice to drop them further in it. Such a boring, nothing club nowadays. Would love them to go down.

 

[Pyeman]

Also check Burnley's fixtues after the Swansea game: Liverpool (a), Man City (h), Southampton (a), Tottenham (h), Arsenal (h).

This is why it was so disappointing to have taken one point from the two home games at home to Crystal Palace and West Brom, when we were 2-0 up in both. We should have been taking at least four points from those positions, probably six if we're realistically going to stay up. I think those five dropped points will ultimately cost us survival, albeit it only just.

 

[Blitzballer]

Goodbye Aston Villa, maybe you dropping down to the Championship will give your careless owner a reality check

 

[Skinner]

Really??

It's not something I'd say if I wasnt sure. Too many sides playing each other down there, mixed with tough games against top sides. It's too big of a gap + our GD. It would require us losing pretty much every game and more than three teams going on a good run.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Championship, here we come!

 

[Pagnell]

I wouldn't write Villa off just yet. A couple of wins would see them right back amongst it. If Lambert was still at the helm they'd be doomed, but Sherwood might still bring back a bit of confidence. And let's not forget they're still level on points with QPR in 17th.

 

[mistermagic]

I'm really starting to think that 30 points will be enough to stay up this year which is seriously low...

 

[Skinner]

Nah, 34

 

[Villaboy]

Massive week for Villa playing WBA twice at home in 5 days...

If we can get the 3 points in the league in Tuesday night, it might spur our form on and will set us up for the quarter final clash on Saturday...

As I said, big IF...

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Well, that's brought back a bit of hope! We'll see though, one game at a time. An FA Cup Semi-final would be nice too.

 

[ArmchairDiehard]

As Pagnell said, the appointment of Sherwood could be their saving grace. He may not have the experience of a relegation dogfight, but's got balls and doesn't care who he upsets.

 

[HarvSFC]

Survival in the league, or an FA Cup final at the expense of being relegated?

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Survival in the league, or an FA Cup final at the expense of being relegated?

If you gave me the option of winning it and going down, or not and staying up, I'll win the FA Cup every day, but a final defeat and relegation, or go out on Saturday? Bye bye FA Cup...