US Presidential election 2016

[Gashead]

I definitely think the people who write Sanders off for being unelectable are blind to the proportion of the American people who harbour a strong dislike for Clinton. And we're not talking only about Tea Party nutters here. She is not seen as trustworthy or reliable at all.

I find it odd that Sanders has struggled so badly with African Americans. Is there a convincing theory about this? Is Hilary benefitting from a post-Bill Clinton dividend?

Clinton seems to have more support amongst African Americans - no idea why - but Sanders made an effort over last week or two and saw an increased share of the vote in Michigan. So maybe that's something which will change over the next few weeks and months.

 

[Tilbury]

I definitely think the people who write Sanders off for being unelectable are blind to the proportion of the American people who harbour a strong dislike for Clinton. And we're not talking only about Tea Party nutters here. She is not seen as trustworthy or reliable at all.

I find it odd that Sanders has struggled so badly with African Americans. Is there a convincing theory about this? Is Hilary benefitting from a post-Bill Clinton dividend?

Yeh I think Bills legacy and popularity certainly has something to do with it.
In Michigan Bernie did far better than the he does in the south with African Americans (around 30% so still something to improve on). A theory for this is that, as we know, the south is very religious, and Southern African Americans are even more religious as a group still. Religious people tend to be more socially conservative, and this includes the AA population. We tend to think, well as a group they obviously support racial equality so they must all be liberal on other issues, but it doesn't work out like that. For example, their support for gay marriage is quite substantially less than White Americans. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/07/29/graphics-slideshow-changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage/
So maybe Sanders superior liberal history on these kinds of issues versus Clinton does not help him get their support, or perhaps even hinders him. Would explain why he does better outside the South.
Can also add that Sanders is not really a religious man at all, whereas Hillary is (or at least she has been pretending to be in recent debates), but when he is he's Jewish. Could well put a lot off.
Before MLK was assassinated his message began to broaden and he talked a lot more about economic inequality, of all poor people not just black communities. This is exactly Sanders message, 50 years on. I really think he should go after this a lot more than he does, relating it to MLK and his personal history with him as it's something that Hillary really cannot compete with at all.
Edit: Oh yeh and Jockney mentions she's managed to create this image that she's good with Obama. Remembering back to "08 she used some very dirty and questionable attacks playing on racial lines, this is definitely something that could be exploited.

 

[Alty]

All interesting points.

Anyone know how Sanders has done with Latinos? Closer to 50/50, I presume?

 

[Jockney]

Yeh I think Bills legacy and popularity certainly has something to do with it.
In Michigan Bernie did far better than the he does in the south with African Americans (around 30% so still something to improve on). A theory for this is that, as we know, the south is very religious, and Southern African Americans are even more religious as a group still. Religious people tend to be more socially conservative, and this includes the AA population. We tend to think, well as a group they obviously support racial equality so they must all be liberal on other issues, but it doesn't work out like that. For example, their support for gay marriage is quite substantially less than White Americans. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/07/29/graphics-slideshow-changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage/
So maybe Sanders superior liberal history on these kinds of issues versus Clinton does not help him get their support, or perhaps even hinders him. Would explain why he does better outside the South.
Can also add that Sanders is not really a religious man at all, whereas Hillary is (or at least she has been pretending to be in recent debates), but when he is he's Jewish. Could well put a lot off.
Before MLK was assassinated his message began to broaden and he talked a lot more about economic inequality, of all poor people not just black communities. This is exactly Sanders message, 50 years on. I really think he should go after this a lot more than he does, relating it to MLK and his personal history with him as it's something that Hillary really cannot compete with at all.
Edit: Oh yeh and Jockney mentions she's managed to create this image that she's good with Obama. Remembering back to "08 she used some very dirty and questionable attacks playing on racial lines, this is definitely something that could be exploited.

Yup all this.

Additionally, something else that doesn't get brought up very often: most middle-class and working-class African-Americans do not want or need a political saviour. They have been burnt too often in the past and would much rather organise and govern their own communities on a local level with a little help on a few issues from a PRAGMATIC politician, than invest in a political idealist who they don't know and have no reason to trust. Like you said, the African-American community is not homogeneous and the tenets of free enterprise and market economics are not necessarily inimical to every African-American's conception of social justice. Most Americans, black, white, or otherwise, still believe wholeheartedly in the American Dream.

Edit: it's worth noting that the polling data for African-Americans on Bernie Sanders is actually quite positive. Those polled like him, they think he's honest, but generally they prefer Hillary. This is not a cut and dried case of cultural hegemony: the dynamics at play are just completely different.

 

[Tilbury]

I haven't seen any actual figures but I think it will be very close. Like his usual rapport he does very well among younger Hispanic voters. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...27-percent-for-Sanders-over-Clinton-in-Nevada

 

[smat]

Can also add that Sanders is not really a religious man at all, whereas Hillary is

Hillary is a woman, dude.

 

[Tilbury]

Ah you know what I mean aha.

 

[Alty]

I was tempted to have a bet on Kasich to get the Republican nomination a while back as I thought a brokered convention seemed possible and he might be the only obvious alternative to Trump. Never got round to it. He was 66-1 and is now 14-1. Obviously it's not likely, but I think 66-1 would have been a worthwhile punt.

Trump is now 3-1 to be next US President. Which is just bonkers.

 

[Tilbury]

The escalation of violence at Donald Trump events, completely his own fault.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/escalating-aggression-marks-trump-s-rhetoric-642743363967

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Isn't that shortskirt logic.

 

[Tilbury]

No. Trump isn't a victim.

 

[Tilbury]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...spent-39-years-in-prison-confronts-clinton-on
Uncomfortable* moment for Hillary but that's a seriously powerful and saddening story.
*Dealt with it well though even if her position is still wrong imo.

 

[Renegade]

It seems incredible that a Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 can support the death penalty in any circumstance. The way she worded it, it seems to be only a very minor issue, but she could save herself a lot of needless hassle by admitting she was wrong. I guess she needs to appear consistent given the other issues she's flip-flopped on though.

 

[Tilbury]

Yeh rather outdated.

 

[blade1889]

The BBC are leading with 'setback for Trump' and him facing a long fight because of Kasichs win in Ohio. As if the whole night has been a set-back.

Am I missing something here?

Kasich is Ohio Governor so was expected to win, he did by ~6% from Trump. Cruz some way off. In the other states tonight Trump looks set to claim victories in them all from very big margins to a couple of fairly slim ones as things stand. How can that possibly be classed as a setback for Trump? He's completely dominated tonight.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The BBC are leading with 'setback for Trump' and him facing a long fight because of Kasichs win in Ohio. As if the whole night has been a set-back.

Am I missing something here?[...]

The BBC is biased.

 

[Tilbury]

Damn that's really shit. Clinton wins all 5 (just). Really needed to win at least 2 of Illinois/Ohio/Missouri.

 

[Alty]

Rubio's result in Florida shows it's by no means certain that home state advantage will get you over the line. Kasich is really running as a sort of anti-Trump and the fact that an important swing state went his way might encourage a section of the party to back Kasich at a brokered convention or even put him up as a third party candidate. Still unlikely, of course. I'd say it was a good night for Trump rather than a great one.

As for the Democrats...it's all over bar the shouting unless the email scandal really blows up.

 

[blade1889]

Of course its not a guarantee but is clearly a big advantage, Kasich struggled in all the other counties (maybe bar one...can't exactly remember) and winning one out of five at this stage in the process is hardly inspiring with you already trailing by quite some distance. Certainly not enough to even have Trump scared in the slightest.

And then Trumps main rival in Cruz only really runing him (very) close in one state, again with a big gap to make up.

If I were Trump I'd be very pleased with how the night went.

 

[Stevencc]

I wish it was photoshopped.

 

[blade1889]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/if-trump-is-not-elected-then?bffbuk&utm_term=.fpnvOwNN1#.anAgWlzzY

Some guy reckons it was better when slavery 'was in' whilst another thinks that if Trump doesn't get in he's gonna get 'gay married', although he doesn't specify whether that's something he wants to happen or a strange new kind of protest.

 

[Tilbury]

Western Tuesday.
Trump wins Arizona and Cruz Utah.
Clinton wins Arizona but Sanders' big wins in Idaho and Utah means *shock* he wins more delegates on the night.

Bernie will win all three of the states on Saturday (Alaska, Hawaii and Washington). If he does so with the same margin of victory in the two caucus' yesterday (80-20) he will make up around 100 delegates.
But... if he could push it another 5 per cent and make her unviable...

 

[Womble98]

Arizona is having loads of allegations of electoral fraud, loads of people turned away, wrongly counted, etc. Wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of legal challenge from what I have read.

 

[Tilbury]

They cut the number of polling stations in Maricopa county which is bigger than wales (size and pop.) from 200 to 60. Whoever they put in charge of this, how did they get that job.

 

[Tilbury]

Bernie is coming.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Feel the Bern.

Can this actually happen?!

 

[Alty]

I know it was a while back now but the Republican result in Utah made me laugh so much. All those incredibly polite Mormons obviously fucking hate Trump.

I think Sanders might finish strongly but surely he has too much to do now?

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Yeah. He was done a while ago. Clinton can then be pretty much as cente-right and corporatist as she wants once she has the nomination, because no Democrat will vote for Trump.

 

[smat]

Looks like there's a chance Trump won't actually be the candidate after last night though? (Notwithstanding Ebe's ^^ assurances that Trump doesn't actually want to be president). That's what I been reading anyway. Brokered convention or sutin.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Trump is/was very good friends with the Clintons. Make of that what you will.