Who will be in the top 7

[shoddycollins]

And what on earth has happened to Carlisle?! I know they slipped down because of lack of games but weren't they on a similar amount of points before Xmas?!

We've only picked up 8 points since Christmas so yeah, especially since the end of January, when we've only picked up one point.

We slipped down as expected because we weren't playing of course; however before we've even really got into playing our games in hand (we've only played one extra game since the start of February than most of the other teams in the division) we've fallen further behind. Our form since the start of February is probably the worst run of form over 7 games anyone has had this season. Don't think even Southend at their worst managed to pick up one point from seven games.

We can't use fixture congestion as an excuse, not yet at least because everyone seems to be playing Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday at the moment. Only think we've played that one game I mentioned that wasn't a full or nearly full matchday. Later on in this month though other teams will start playing only every other Tuesday or so while we're still playing every Saturday and every Tuesday.

With the coronavirus and weather in January we weren't able to train in addition to not playing. Our own training pitch was frozen and we weren't able to find any alternatives to use because of the restrictions on movement and social distancing and such. For two weeks we weren't able to train at all because of our own coronavirus outbreak and then when we did return we were only able to train indoors.

That said, we did win our first game back. We looked a bit rusty but perhaps it was just momentum from our run before Christmas that carried us through. Losing the next game against FGR wasn't a bad result, but just seemed to kill our belief a bit, since then each defeat has only knocked us back even further and we're stuck in a rut now. Just can't stop losing games, can't seem to stop giving away penalties and direct free kicks either. It's just a vicious cycle.

 

[Robshep]

There's more chance of Carlisle winning a game than me stopping so just click ignore

Get back in your coffin Tory boy

 

[AldosShimmy]

Latest round of stats from the weekend attached. Using PPG/10gameformPPG and 20game form PPG it provides a picture of short, medium and long term form combined.

From the latest round of data the break down looks like this in my opinion (predicted points from mean PPG/10gameformPPG/20gameformPPG)
1 - Cheltenham (87) - Not only on course to comfortably take one of the top 3 slots, if they keep this form up they are well on their way to winning the league. That being said their upcoming fixtures do look alot tougher than their recent games.
2 - FGR (83) - A few bumps in the road lately but still remain on course for one of the top 3 slots. Their next 7 fixtures do, however, look horrific so this will be a real test for them.
3 - Tranmere (81) - The stats seem to point to the last auto spot but there isn't room for much error now. A terrible performance at the weekend and definately look a different team without Vaughan. The flipside is a number of L1 teams have been felled without him in the pizza cup so Hill now has to earn his crust. Not the worst set of upcoming games so maximum points required to keep the pack at bay / take advantage of Cheltenham and FGRs tougher ixtures.
----------------------------
4 - Cambridge (78) - Appear set to miss out on the top 3 IF Tranmere can take full advantage of their games in hand and both teams recent form stays on the same trajectory. Like the top two upcoming fixtures do look tougher than games just completed.
5 - Morecambe (77) - From the outside they look like they are punching way above their expectations. They seem to refuse to give up on the playoffs and keep getting the results needed to stay in the picture. Next 5 games are all against form teams or those in the mix so that should provide a more useful insight.
6 - Bolton (75) - The form team who will be a danger to anyone in the playoffs. Probably left it too late to make the auto's and probably can't afford a drop off in form if they are to make play offs. Their run into the end of the season actually isn't all that bad either.
7 - Exeter (75) - Cutting it fine Exeter could just pip Bradford on goal difference. Indifferent form means they really need to put a run together as Bradfords form looks ominus for the run in. Next 5 games include Tranmere away and hosting Salford and Cheltenham.
----------------------------
8 - Bradford (75) - They have left it late but like Bolton now look like beating all before them. At the moment they cannot afford a dip in form as they have reduced the deficit on the top boys significantly. Newport next is sigficant for both teams.
9 - Salford (71) - Sal£ord look like missing out with way to many draws of late costing them as Tranmere and Bolton have both bypassed them. Some big games coming up against Cheltenham, Exeter and FGR.
10 - Newport (66) - A win on Saturday is a lifeline but they have completely lost their early season mojo. Autos almost certainly gone and playoffs now look miles out of reach if their form and that of others around them continues.
11- Carlisle (63) - RIP. Champions elect for half a season but now showing hopeless worse than relegation form. May have games in hand but thats no use if are averaging 0.8 points a game over the last 10 matches.

 

[shoddycollins]

Think we should all just hold a meeting and agree that we'll let Morecambe have it. Seem to be the only ones actually enjoying this season.

 

[FGR Stroud]

Latest round of stats from the weekend attached. Using PPG/10gameformPPG and 20game form PPG it provides a picture of short, medium and long term form combined.

From the latest round of data the break down looks like this in my opinion (predicted points from mean PPG/10gameformPPG/20gameformPPG)
1 - Cheltenham (87) - Not only on course to comfortably take one of the top 3 slots, if they keep this form up they are well on their way to winning the league. That being said their upcoming fixtures do look alot tougher than their recent games.
2 - FGR (83) - A few bumps in the road lately but still remain on course for one of the top 3 slots. Their next 7 fixtures do, however, look horrific so this will be a real test for them.
3 - Tranmere (81) - The stats seem to point to the last auto spot but there isn't room for much error now. A terrible performance at the weekend and definately look a different team without Vaughan. The flipside is a number of L1 teams have been felled without him in the pizza cup so Hill now has to earn his crust. Not the worst set of upcoming games so maximum points required to keep the pack at bay / take advantage of Cheltenham and FGRs tougher ixtures.
----------------------------
4 - Cambridge (78) - Appear set to miss out on the top 3 IF Tranmere can take full advantage of their games in hand and both teams recent form stays on the same trajectory. Like the top two upcoming fixtures do look tougher than games just completed.
5 - Morecambe (77) - From the outside they look like they are punching way above their expectations. They seem to refuse to give up on the playoffs and keep getting the results needed to stay in the picture. Next 5 games are all against form teams or those in the mix so that should provide a more useful insight.
6 - Bolton (75) - The form team who will be a danger to anyone in the playoffs. Probably left it too late to make the auto's and probably can't afford a drop off in form if they are to make play offs. Their run into the end of the season actually isn't all that bad either.
7 - Exeter (75) - Cutting it fine Exeter could just pip Bradford on goal difference. Indifferent form means they really need to put a run together as Bradfords form looks ominus for the run in. Next 5 games include Tranmere away and hosting Salford and Cheltenham.
----------------------------
8 - Bradford (75) - They have left it late but like Bolton now look like beating all before them. At the moment they cannot afford a dip in form as they have reduced the deficit on the top boys significantly. Newport next is sigficant for both teams.
9 - Salford (71) - Sal£ord look like missing out with way to many draws of late costing them as Tranmere and Bolton have both bypassed them. Some big games coming up against Cheltenham, Exeter and FGR.
10 - Newport (66) - A win on Saturday is a lifeline but they have completely lost their early season mojo. Autos almost certainly gone and playoffs now look miles out of reach if their form and that of others around them continues.
11- Carlisle (63) - RIP. Champions elect for half a season but now showing hopeless worse than relegation form. May have games in hand but thats no use if are averaging 0.8 points a game over the last 10 matches.

Interesting but I find they must be read in conjunction with match result grid:

 

[denzel ecfc]

How can we be below Bolton on goal difference?

 

[Devon_Lad]

We’ve got a really tough (on paper) run of fixtures coming up;

Bolton (a)
Oldham (h)
Forest Green (h)
Carlisle (a)
Morecambe (h)
Tranmere (a)
Exeter (h)
Newport (a)

In short, we’ve got all the top eight except Cheltenham and ourselves in an eight game run. If we come out of that lot still in the play off hunt it’ll be a hell of an effort.

We've a tough run coming up, too.

(13 Mar - Chelt H; 20 Mar - Tran A; 27 Mar - Salf - H; 10 Apr - Cam A; 20 Apr - FGR A; 24 Apr - Newp H; 1 May - Bolt A).

 

[masi51]

Strange that you have this imperious squad, yet feel the need to improve it by signing our players.

Vaughan is under contract for next season, and I doubt he would sully himse

How can we be below Bolton on goal difference?

Exeter v Bolton in a Wembley play off
Bring it on !!!

 

[Holty10]

How can we be below Bolton on goal difference?

Average being a decimal?

It feels like it changes the probable outcome week on week at the minute.

Tranmere losing Vaughan could be big for them.

A few teams with injuries too and there is no let up on the games, so others may end up with similar.

 

[SVH]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

I think it's between us and Tranmere for third spot.

 

[masi51]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

I think it's between us and Tranmere for third spot.

Think if we turn you over Tommorow we will finish above you and you will get a playoff place at best.

If you turn us over we will struggle to even get a play off place its that tight at the top

 

[Devon_Lad]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

I think it's between us and Tranmere for third spot.

We have third nailed on so enjoy play offs

 

[masi51]

We have third nailed on so enjoy play offs

No problem if you end up third....it is what it is

Within three/4 years we will be back in the championship
And this forum will be a distant memory

 

[SVH]

Think if we turn you over Tommorow we will finish above you and you will get a playoff place at best.

If you turn us over we will struggle to even get a play off place its that tight at the top

I think you'll beat us tomorrow night. Sounds like we are missing a few and Hoolahan won't travel. I'd take a point but the team will be high after our last minute winner and your winning streak come to an end in the last minute. Football is a funny old game and a psychological one too but who knows.

One thing for sure, you won't be going up automatically as have left it too late.

 

[Back in the DHSS]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

I think it's between us and Tranmere for third spot.

I think it’s a total lottery to be honest. Those of us facing 2 fixtures a week face a gruelling run in. Luck with injuries and suspensions will play a key part in who finishes top 3.

 

[Laker]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

I think it's between us and Tranmere for third spot.

We've got Orient away on a Tuesday in April too. But yes we have lots of space to recover - five separate occasions of seven days between games between now and the end of the season.

 

[masi51]

I think you'll beat us tomorrow night. Sounds like we are missing a few and Hoolahan won't travel. I'd take a point but the team will be high after our last minute winner and your winning streak come to an end in the last minute. Football is a funny old game and a psychological one too but who knows.

One thing for sure, you won't be going up automatically as have left it too late.

I am with you, we can only afford to lose one possibly 2 games, big ask as we are not head and shoulders better than others, just the quality coming off the bench gaining us points.
Would take this squad all day in this league less John who will be playing in lge 1 or the championship

 

[FGR Stroud]

Within three/4 years we will be back in the championship

I tend to think you could be right.

 

[shoddycollins]

Bolton tomorrow is our last midweek game excluding the easter weekend so fatigue/squad size won't be affecting us too much in the final 12 games.

FFS

 

[northstandexile]

There is no way the eight placed team will get 75 points.

 

[Devon_Lad]

.

 

[Andy Proctor]

You won't need 75 points make the top 7 don't know what the average is but I'd say 72 points will be more than enough.

 

[chipmunx]

You won't need 75 points make the top 7 don't know what the average is but I'd say 72 points will be more than enough.

so we just need to win our last 15 games and we'll get in on 74 points then - nice!

 

[denzel ecfc]

Well we are currently in 8th and on points per game that would be 76 if carried on till the end.
Though we are playing 6 of the top 7 so things will change a lot

 

[Devon_Lad]

Well we are currently in 8th and on points per game that would be 76 if carried on till the end.
Though we are playing 6 of the top 7 so things will change a lot

We are unstoppable when we have a fully fit team

 

[masi51]

We are unstoppable when we have a fully fit team

You will have that team when you Travel North on the 1st of May......pity the will be no crowds allowed would of been 25k plus for that game......i reckon the winner may well be promoted and the loser settling for a play off.

 

[Chris FGR]

Top 3 all dropping points again, the likes of Tranmere and Bolton with their squads must fancy their chances in the run in.

Players out of position and not much on the bench isn't helping us atm. If Matt gets injured we'll struggle to stay anywhere near it.

 

[Back in the DHSS]

Top 3 all dropping points again, the likes of Tranmere and Bolton with their squads must fancy their chances in the run in.

Players out of position and not much on the bench isn't helping us atm. If Matt gets injured we'll struggle to stay anywhere near it.

4 points from your last 2 fixtures is a good return with such a depleted squad though.

 

[masi51]

my revised top 7
Cheltenham
FGR
Bolton/Exeter
...................................................
Bolton/Exeter
Cambridge
Tranmere
Morecambe

My revised top 7 after tonight
FGR
Tranmere
Bolton/Exeter
.............................................................
Bolton/Exeter
Cheltenham
Newport
Cambridge

Try again Saturday

 

[devilofajob]

Would love to secure a play off spot in our last game. Could we??