Who will win the league - Part 2

[Boz]

Hard to chose between Cheltenham and Forest Green, but the Robins' better more experienced manager may see them home.
I'm not confident Rovers will make the play-offs. Even if we do, Tranmere's record in play-offs is poor, only won them once out of six attempts. Brabin's record is even worse...
Apart from Grimsby and whoever of the Gloucestershire duo misses out on the automatics, I favour Eastleigh and Dover to take up the remaining spots. Braintree have too many games to catch up on to feel that they'll make it. There may be a chance for one of the sides on the periphery of the play-offs, Wrexham come to mind, to make a late run.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

I'm not confident Rovers will make the play-offs. Even if we do, Tranmere's record in play-offs is poor, only won them once out of six attempts. Brabin's record is even worse....

In the past we've gone into the playoffs in a bad run of form having already been nailed on for them. In what is now the Championship we threw away the title and then lost in the playoffs then in League One we faded after Hull beat us at PP meaning we finished 3rd.. this time around if we're in the playoffs it'll mean we've been in good form.

 

[Clarkey_GTFC]

A few seasons back, we missed out on automatic promotion on the last day drawing at home to Bradford. We had been in the top three pretty much all season, we then drew Northampton in the play offs who had been in awful form and lost both legs 1-0.

Similar to us in 2005/06. We were almost certain for promotion all season before a combination of last minute goals on the last day saw us drop to 4th. You probably know how that one ended up.

 

[Southern Shayman]

Guiseley lost in the Conference North playoffs (2 finals) for four consecutive seasons before they escaped.....

From a purely selfish perspective, I'd like to be playing Grimsby and Tranmere next year, which is something I could never say about FGR, Eastleigh or even Braintree and Dover. That's assuming Altrincham survive, which certainly isn't a given.

We're in exactly the same boat

 

[Si Robin]

Similar to us in 2005/06. We were almost certain for promotion all season before a combination of last minute goals on the last day saw us drop to 4th. You probably know how that one ended up.

I do

Seriously though, if us and FGR go to the wire then I definitely can't see either of us winning the playoffs.

 

[GTFCfish]

Similar to us in 2005/06. We were almost certain for promotion all season before a combination of last minute goals on the last day saw us drop to 4th. You probably know how that one ended up.

I remember the penultimate game that season away at Macclesfield conceding an injury time equaliser which meant it was out of our hands on the final day.
Then the last minute drama of that final day......horrific!

 

[Si Robin]

Whereas we convincingly beat Notts County at home to confirm our place in the playoffs (with no chance of automatic promotion) before going to Mansfield on the last day and battering them 5-0. We couldn't have gone into the playoffs in better form.

On the flipside, in 2002, we needed 2 points from our last two games to guarantee auto-promotion. We got one away at Carlisle, before losing to Plymouth on the last day. We struggled against Hartlepool in the semi-final, beating them on pens, before taking Rushden apart in the final.

 

[Clarkey_GTFC]

Just confirms that recent or seasonal form means virtually nothing when it comes to the playoffs. Whichever team turns up and wants it the most will win. I don't think we'll have a problem being hungry for the semis but there will be an incredible amount of pressure should we make the final again. I'm not sure many can take another failure, especially after #operationpromotion.

 

[Dean]

Surely it's time to reevaluate three up three down?

Got to feel sorry for one of Cheltenham or Forest Green come May. One of them is on course to break the ninety point mark and lose out in the play offs.

If history is anything to go by second place rarely go up via the play offs. I know Bristol Rovers done it last year but looking back the past few years the likes of Kidderminster, Wrexham and Luton all were consist all season but could only finish second before losing out in play offs.

Last year one of Tranmere/Cheltenham/Hartlepool were going to stay up. When I say stay up it was more like steal a place In the football league. Nobody could of complained if all three of us were relegated to allow Barnet and Bristol up automatically as well as one of Grimsby/FGR/Eastleigh/Macc up via play offs.

Even this year so far;

York............26
Yeovil..........24
Dagenham..20

York are on course to stay up with a predicted 39 points while Forest Green could miss out on a predicted 92 points.

 

[EnglishRed]

I don't think you'll find any arguments about three up three down but I can't see the league going for it. All they've done recently is increase parachute payments

 

[Si Robin]

Surely it's time to reevaluate three up three down?

Got to feel sorry for one of Cheltenham or Forest Green come May. One of them is on course to break the ninety point mark and lose out in the play offs.

If history is anything to go by second place rarely go up via the play offs. I know Bristol Rovers done it last year but looking back the past few years the likes of Kidderminster, Wrexham and Luton all were consist all season but could only finish second before losing out in play offs.

Last year one of Tranmere/Cheltenham/Hartlepool were going to stay up. When I say stay up it was more like steal a place In the football league. Nobody could of complained if all three of us were relegated to allow Barnet and Bristol up automatically as well as one of Grimsby/FGR/Eastleigh/Macc up via play offs.

Even this year so far;

York............26
Yeovil..........24
Dagenham..20

York are on course to stay up with a predicted 39 points while Forest Green could miss out on a predicted 92 points.

Whilst I can't disagree with your reasoning, and you're right Hartlepool stole a place in the Football League last season (I'd say the same about ourselves and Tranmere), I still don't agree with 3 up/3 down.

I have my own reasons, and I don't expect anyone to agree with me.

 

[GEORGE]

It should definitely be two automatic and one through the play offs. Otherwise teams will stagnate (bottom ) of the FL and (top) of the Conference. Our fans had an enjoyable time last season but if we hadn't got promoted I dread to think.

 

[CTFCfan99]

In Italy's Serie B the top two are automatically promoted and 3rd-6th go into the playoffs, unless the 3rd place team is 9+ points ahead of 4th in which case they go up automatically and there are no playoffs. Would a system like this be a good option in the NL, where the 2nd placed team goes up automatically if way ahead of 3rd?

 

[Greenacres]

Our fans had an enjoyable time last season...

So did ours, until the Gas turned up the heat in the play-offs!

Despite that one of my highlights of last season was the 1-0 win at the Mem, I really didn't expect us to get anything from the game, after which I really believed that we might finish in the play-off positions.

 

[Luke Imp]

Speaking of the PO's, a Lincoln fan has done a decent article on teams chances. This was posted prior to last weekend's games so are a week out.

http://www.lincoln.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=434824

 

[DarkSithLord]

In Italy's Serie B the top two are automatically promoted and 3rd-6th go into the playoffs, unless the 3rd place team is 9+ points ahead of 4th in which case they go up automatically and there are no playoffs. Would a system like this be a good option in the NL, where the 2nd placed team goes up automatically if way ahead of 3rd?

That sounds like a very good idea to me!

 

[Andy Harrier]

In Italy's Serie B the top two are automatically promoted and 3rd-6th go into the playoffs, unless the 3rd place team is 9+ points ahead of 4th in which case they go up automatically and there are no playoffs. Would a system like this be a good option in the NL, where the 2nd placed team goes up automatically if way ahead of 3rd?

That is quite an interesting proposition. Looking at it, since 2000, three teams would have gone up in second under this premise (Dagenham 2002, Hereford 2004 and Wrexham 2012). My concern with this would be that it would mean that most of the division would potentially have nothing to play for quite a lot earlier if it's obvious that a team is going to finish well clear in 2nd, which could make the end of the season a little bit dull.

 

[localhero]

In Italy's Serie B the top two are automatically promoted and 3rd-6th go into the playoffs, unless the 3rd place team is 9+ points ahead of 4th in which case they go up automatically and there are no playoffs. Would a system like this be a good option in the NL, where the 2nd placed team goes up automatically if way ahead of 3rd?

Too complicated, the current playoff format is fine. You might feel hard done by if you're team 10 points ahead and lose in the playoff final but over time these things generally even themselves out. The following season you might scrape a playoff place in the last game and beat the team who finished second, 20 points ahead of you.

Also with the Italian model, if the top two were miles ahead at this point the season would already be over for about two thirds of the league.

 

[Vanni]

As far as I'm aware, not once has an Italian Serie B side finished in 3rd place and gone up automatically. There were a couple of years where the first two sides in the table had a big point margin over the third placed team, but usually there are only a couple of points separating 3rd and 4th at the end of the season.

I have always maintained that 3 sides should go up and and 3 come down, but I prefer the system to remain as it is. First two sides go up automatically, and 3rd - 6th go into the play offs. The problem is that clubs change their minds when they win promotion, as several clubs were in favour of 3 up 3 down, and yet they go quiet when they finally go up. Sure, another relegation spot means more chance of losing their league status, but what happens when they do go down and see for themselves how hard it is with only one automatic promotion place up for grabs?

What really irks me is that there are several L2 clubs whose main objective is to be better than two sides at the end of the year. My interpretation of this is that these clubs are basically taking the piss out of their fans.

 

[Greenacres]

What really irks me is that there are several L2 clubs whose main objective is to be better than two sides at the end of the year. My interpretation of this is that these clubs are basically taking the piss out of their fans.

This is possibly not too far from the truth. There will be clubs who have been hanging around the lower reaches of L2 for a number of seasons, having avoided relegation to the Conference largely due to there being two clubs whose performance on (and often off) the pitch are more abject than their own. If you go back several seasons it isn't too difficult to work out who they are, most will appear as our opponents before too long, if they haven't already. However, there is good news for us, many teams who have regularly finished in the top half of the Conference have eventually earned promotion to L2...even better news, most of them have done reasonably well following their elevation in status.

 

[Andy Harrier]

Too complicated, the current playoff format is fine. You might feel hard done by if you're team 10 points ahead and lose in the playoff final but over time these things generally even themselves out. The following season you might scrape a playoff place in the last game and beat the team who finished second, 20 points ahead of you.

Also with the Italian model, if the top two were miles ahead at this point the season would already be over for about two thirds of the league.

Easy for you to say that things will even themselves out. 3 seasons ago, we finished 2nd on 93 points, 8 clear of Newport and look at us now.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Easy for you to say that things will even themselves out. 3 seasons ago, we finished 2nd on 93 points, 8 clear of Newport and look at us now.

In 94/95 we finished 6pts shy of winning Division 1 and promotion to the Premiership when only 2 teams went up. It was the third time we had been in the playoffs in a row... look at us now.. :sadface

 

[B2TF]

Forest Green are the Stepford Wives of football clubs - an artifice created by the smug inhabitants of an affluent but isolated and weird rural community who go through all the motions of pretending that the club is real and just as good as the clubs that all the other guys they know are in love with. Sure, the club makes the right noises for them and tells them they're the best (http://www.movieclips.com/videos/the-stepford-wives-official-clip-youre-the-best-frank-580749379967) and it resembles in a cold, superficial way the homely club it replaced and which unfortunately is no more but crucially it lacks the only things that can make it real - a heart and soul.

I shall henceforth refer to them as Stepford Wives FC.

 

[Aber gas]

As far as I'm aware, not once has an Italian Serie B side finished in 3rd place and gone up automatically. There were a couple of years where the first two sides in the table had a big point margin over the third placed team, but usually there are only a couple of points separating 3rd and 4th at the end of the season.

I have always maintained that 3 sides should go up and and 3 come down, but I prefer the system to remain as it is. First two sides go up automatically, and 3rd - 6th go into the play offs. The problem is that clubs change their minds when they win promotion, as several clubs were in favour of 3 up 3 down, and yet they go quiet when they finally go up. Sure, another relegation spot means more chance of losing their league status, but what happens when they do go down and see for themselves how hard it is with only one automatic promotion place up for grabs?

What really irks me is that there are several L2 clubs whose main objective is to be better than two sides at the end of the year. My interpretation of this is that these clubs are basically taking the piss out of their fans.

That's a good post vanni and I agree, with the current system dropping into the conference is fucking terrifying and makes a lot of teams in league 2 very negative. The attitude of let's hope there are two more dysfunctional teams than us isn't helpful. Three up and three down is the way to go and I can't really see any sensible argument against it.

 

[EnglishRed]

That's a good post vanni and I agree, with the current system dropping into the conference is fucking terrifying and makes a lot of teams in league 2 very negative. The attitude of let's hope there are two more dysfunctional teams than us isn't helpful. Three up and three down is the way to go and I can't really see any sensible argument against it.

There is no sensible arguement apart from the fact that a lot of the smaller clubs in L2 know that if they drop down and fail to get up at the first time of asking then they would really be screwed without the extra 750k revenue (or whatever it is).

 

[Tranmerewhite]

There is no sensible arguement apart from the fact that a lot of the smaller clubs in L2 know that if they drop down and fail to get up at the first time of asking then they would really be screwed without the extra 750k revenue (or whatever it is).

We got 300k this year, nothing if we dont go back up. It's a 600k season 1 and 300k season 2 from next year I believe. Also cost us circa £40k in our main sponsorship deal.

 

[BeesKnees]

Top 2 go up, next 3 and third bottom in the play offs

 

[Master D]

As a long time supporter of the restoration project known as the Natural Order, I'm encouraged to see that the bottom 2 clubs in L2 at present are Dag & Red and Yeovil.

 

[rudebwoyben]

As a long time supporter of the restoration project known as the Natural Order, I'm encouraged to see that the bottom 2 clubs in L2 at present are Dag & Red and Yeovil.

Not much use if it's Cheltenham and FGR who replace them though. This notion of a 'natural order' is just hoary old bollocks.

 

[Aber gas]

There is no sensible arguement apart from the fact that a lot of the smaller clubs in L2 know that if they drop down and fail to get up at the first time of asking then they would really be screwed without the extra 750k revenue (or whatever it is).

It could be argued that opening up a third promotion place would lessen the stigma of the conference. Perhaps it would enable the conference to market itself more effectively making the financial implications less severe. Three up , three down isn't a complete solution and there definetly needs to be a conversation about the way the money in football is distributed but it would be a start.