2016 Conservative Leadership Election

[Abertawe]

You need a bigger tinfoil hat, mate.

?

 

[silkyman]

If you really thought we were tied in to some federal European dictatorship, then you might want to join in with Toddle's flat earth stuff.

 

[blade1889]

So Wednesday is May Day

 

[Abertawe]

If you really thought we were tied in to some federal European dictatorship, then you might want to join in with Toddle's flat earth stuff.

You're lovely Silkyman but I don't think you're correct. Just thank your lucky stars the decision was taken out of your hands.

 

[Pagnell]

Fortunately we have clever people like Abertawe to guide our way.

 

[Abertawe]

Unfortunately we have subservient slaves like Pagnall who have allowed us to be led on this road of disguised fascism.

 

[Pagnell]

Who is this Pagnall you speak of? It sounds like he voted Leave too the fucking idiot.

 

[Abertawe]

Who is this Pagnall you speak of? It sounds like he voted Leave too the fucking idiot.

I'm always making this mistake, I suppose it just emphasis how much of a non-entity the place is.

How ironic that the proud scouser is the epitome of a Thatcher child, can't be denied.

 

[Pagnell]

You need to look up the word irony.

 

[Abertawe]

"Fucking hate Thatcher I do"

*Proceeds to live out the ideology of Thatcher*

Must have been a mighty fine bike ride to end up in the Keynes. The life of pagZ.

 

[Pagnell]

I'm actually curious as to what Abertawe's definition of Thaterite ideology actually is. Just so I can compare like.

 

[smat]

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/752526624722194433/video/1

Signing off in style. Do dooo do.

 

[Pagnell]

No answer I see. I wonder. is this going to be like your accusations of people being "Blairites", without you actually knowing what it means?

 

[.V.]

Not sure on the sample size but

Poll by @SkyData suggests 62% of people think Theresa May would make better Prime Minister - 18% think Jeremy Corbyn would & 20% don't know

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

To get a GE now, the Government can either call for a vote where 2/3rds of MPs would have to vote in favour of a GE, or a vote of no confidence with no resolution made within 14 days of that vote.

May might opt for the former, and Labour MPs would be silly to vote for it as the Tories would be likely to get a larger majority anyway. However that said, if Labour can sort themselves out, they could go in hard with a "overturn brexit" mandate, so they become an option for those wishing to remain in the EU. This would also stall any possibility of the LibDems becoming popular again.

 

[JJ1532]

To get a GE now, the Government can either call for a vote where 2/3rds of MPs would have to vote in favour of a GE, or a vote of no confidence with no resolution made within 14 days of that vote.

May might opt for the former, and Labour MPs would be silly to vote for it as the Tories would be likely to get a larger majority anyway. However that said, if Labour can sort themselves out, they could go in hard with a "overturn brexit" mandate, so they become an option for those wishing to remain in the EU. This would also stall any possibility of the LibDems becoming popular again.

If thats the case, a GE won't be happening any time soon. The Conservatives probably won't risk it, especially given how many of them supported May and will be happy she is becoming PM. Labour's MPs won't vote for it as the majority of them don't support Corbyn and feel he wouldn't win them an election. And the rest combined can't come close to forcing the 2/3rds needed. Its the Conservatives and May for the foreseeable future me thinks.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

If thats the case, a GE won't be happening any time soon. The Conservatives probably won't risk it, especially given how many of them supported May and will be happy she is becoming PM. Labour's MPs won't vote for it as the majority of them don't support Corbyn and feel he wouldn't win them an election. And the rest combined can't come close to forcing the 2/3rds needed. Its the Conservatives and May for the foreseeable future me thinks.

I agree with that entirely. All this talk in the Media about a GE being called is bonkers, as it has very much changed from years gone by with the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act. The only time I could ever see one being voted for is if a Labour split did happen, and Parliament as a whole felt a new Mandate is required. Highly unlikely as you have said

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Which is absolutely the right thing to do.

I'm really surprised at how smoothly the party have recovered post Brexit. Given how divided they are over this issue, from both grassroots support to MPs, I think they'll all rally around May now. Roll on Thatcher 2.0!

It's amazing ain't it!? We were repeatedly told than it was a win-win for labour as they wont be divided yet the Tories will be in disarray. Hmmmm, turned out well didn't it...

Can't say I agree with this assessment. Cameron's been very canny in not invoking Article 50. He's left the problem for his successor to deal with and ultimately made the party leadership something of a poisoned chalice (I'm also not sure it's necessarily a good thing to have a new leader elected without having faced a proper challenge). Still lots of potential Brexit fallout here. Personally, I'll be amazed if the Conservative party can manage to maintain a united front on the issue.

 

[Abertawe]

No answer I see. I wonder. is this going to be like your accusations of people being "Blairites", without you actually knowing what it means?

Don't be a sly little dog, if you're desperate for scraps all you gotta do is quote so I get notice and I'll throw you a bone. I didn't reply because it got boring terrorising your inane soul. Just don't give it the scouse routine from now on given we've concluded you're a Thatcher baby, irony only stretches so far.

 

[Pagnell]

Don't be a sly little dog, if you're desperate for scraps all you gotta do is quote so I get notice and I'll throw you a bone. I didn't reply because it got boring terrorising your inane soul. Just don't give it the scouse routine from now on given we've concluded you're a Thatcher baby, irony only stretches so far.

A simple "Yes, it is" would have sufficed.

 

[JJ1532]

Can't say I agree with this assessment. Cameron's been very canny in not invoking Article 50. He's left the problem for his successor to deal with and ultimately made the party leadership something of a poisoned chalice (I'm also not sure it's necessarily a good thing to have a new leader elected without having faced a proper challenge). Still lots of potential Brexit fallout here. Personally, I'll be amazed if the Conservative party can manage to maintain a united front on the issue.

Why do they need to maintain a united front? When has a political party ever had a united front on any issue? Of course there will be disagreements and squabbles, can't avoid them. I mean, there was a 60/40 split amongst the MPs in the party over which way they voted in the Referendum. I'm not saying they will be totally harmonious, but as long as May makes a decent fist of starting the process to leave, such as appointing an independent task force to start looking at what needs to be done to invoke Article 50 and keeping the Leavers in the party sweet, then I don't see why things will turn nasty.

She will be given a grace period I'd imagine to settle in. Parliament goes on a summer recess in 9 days time. She'll then be able to come back and really tackle the process and everything about it. Can even the most ardent campaigners for Leave, even the ones in her own party(and I don't include Boris or Gove in this) really do anything to force the issue without looking like dickheads? She needs to settle in, probably meet world leaders, appoint her new cabinet(get rid of Gideon please) and then start the process for leaving. That could take several weeks, if not months. I don't see the leadership as a poisoned chalice. This won't be hung around her neck if it goes wrong. Cameron and Gideon should take the blame, Andrew Feldman has also resigned as Party Chairman. Boris and Gove have no political legitimacy at the moment, so they won't be a threat. They'll also cop some of the flack, being the ones who passionately championed it even though they clearly never believed in it.

I just don't see much of the political muck that will be flung in the next 6 months sticking to May. I think she has the experience, intelligence and guile to hold the party together. I mean, the leavers won't dissent because their candidates to replace Cameron were a joke. And maybe the Remainers will cause a stink, but I just don't see it. I think the majority of the party will hold together. You'll always have disagreements and dissenters, but the fact that over 200 MPs voted for May and have now gotten their wish suggest to me that she will have to make a monumental cock of up of the next 6-12 months for that support to disappear. I think they got into government in 2010 and 2015 because they as a party backed Cameron on the whole. Look how many MPs wanted him to stay on after the referendum. If over 2/3rd of the party support May and continue to support May, then they will be fine I think.

They won't be facing any concerted opposition across the room in the Commons thats for sure.

 

[Pagnell]

upshitcreek@UK:~$ sudo Thatcherv2

 

[Benji]

Strange Question Time. Many MPs acting as if Cameron hasn't been a failure of historic proportions. It was all very Famous Five.

 

[nousername]

A united front is overrated, we want debate within the parties...

 

[Abertawe]

A united front is overrated, we want debate within the parties...

Well I think we'll be seeing more debate of policy now. Cameron is/was brilliant at spin & his experience of PR from working in the Television industry was telling. His trump card was performing in front of a camera, always deflecting and playing to the gallery. May can't do that. She's much more matter of fact, hopefully that'll mean her & Corbyn engaging in actual policy debate at PMQ's.

 

[Pagnell]

Boris Johnson as foreign secretary. You couldn't fucking make it up.

 

[JJ1532]

Some very very clever cabinet decisions by May. Get rid of Gideon, excellent. Not sure if Hammond is up to the task, but I'm glad Gideon is gone.

Appointing Boris, Davis and Fox into prominent foreign office roles is a stroke of genius. They campaigned for something they didn't believe in(well, Boris didn't anyway. Although judging by how quick Fox was to throw his hat into the leadership ring, maybe he was the same). So its absolutely the right decision to make them deal with the process of leaving, especially giving Davis the role of chief Brexiteer. The little shit bag.

I would have been pissed off if those cowards had been allowed to sit on the back benches and let someone else take the shit for their decision. They created this mess, let them sort it out. Very cunning by May. Also keeps the Leavers in the Party quiet and onside, plus it keeps the Boris supporters in line with him being given a major role. Again, smart move.

I honestly think these moves were the right ones for May to make. Keeps all sections of her party involved and in line. What sort of state they'll be come the end of the summer recess, when they return to session is another matter, but for now, good start. Especially with Labour still tearing themselves limb for limb.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Why do they need to maintain a united front? When has a political party ever had a united front on any issue? Of course there will be disagreements and squabbles, can't avoid them. I mean, there was a 60/40 split amongst the MPs in the party over which way they voted in the Referendum. I'm not saying they will be totally harmonious, but as long as May makes a decent fist of starting the process to leave, such as appointing an independent task force to start looking at what needs to be done to invoke Article 50 and keeping the Leavers in the party sweet, then I don't see why things will turn nasty.

She will be given a grace period I'd imagine to settle in. Parliament goes on a summer recess in 9 days time. She'll then be able to come back and really tackle the process and everything about it. Can even the most ardent campaigners for Leave, even the ones in her own party(and I don't include Boris or Gove in this) really do anything to force the issue without looking like dickheads? She needs to settle in, probably meet world leaders, appoint her new cabinet(get rid of Gideon please) and then start the process for leaving. That could take several weeks, if not months. I don't see the leadership as a poisoned chalice. This won't be hung around her neck if it goes wrong. Cameron and Gideon should take the blame, Andrew Feldman has also resigned as Party Chairman. Boris and Gove have no political legitimacy at the moment, so they won't be a threat. They'll also cop some of the flack, being the ones who passionately championed it even though they clearly never believed in it.

I just don't see much of the political muck that will be flung in the next 6 months sticking to May. I think she has the experience, intelligence and guile to hold the party together. I mean, the leavers won't dissent because their candidates to replace Cameron were a joke. And maybe the Remainers will cause a stink, but I just don't see it. I think the majority of the party will hold together. You'll always have disagreements and dissenters, but the fact that over 200 MPs voted for May and have now gotten their wish suggest to me that she will have to make a monumental cock of up of the next 6-12 months for that support to disappear. I think they got into government in 2010 and 2015 because they as a party backed Cameron on the whole. Look how many MPs wanted him to stay on after the referendum. If over 2/3rd of the party support May and continue to support May, then they will be fine I think.

They won't be facing any concerted opposition across the room in the Commons thats for sure.

Are the Labour party not currently illustrating why it's important that political parties attempt to present something of a united front? It's reasonable to expect there to be internal divisions, disagreements, distinct factions wishing to pursue different policy ideas but when those start spilling out into the open and when a party appears to be at war with itself you potentially have a very serious problem. It's about competency and trust; the electorate tend not to want to give a party who can't get their own house in order a mandate to run the country. I wouldn't necessarily suggest that this will be the fate of the Conservative party but what I would say is that a schism on Europe is something which has bedeviled the party for years and has hastened the demise of more than one Tory leader. Whether one likes it or not, whether one thinks it fair or not, Brexit - if and how she delivers it - will absolutely define May's reign as PM. Negotiations will be very difficult and lengthy (and actually disentangling Britain from its relationship with the EU will be a fiendishly difficult task, especially for a much under-resourced civil service). And there are massive potential pitfalls - if negotiations go badly then potential financial turmoil will ensue and her party will emerge more divided than ever.

For what it's worth, I do think she was the best available candidate for the job, I don't doubt she'll enjoy something of a honeymoon period and I agree that her appointments today look rather smart (giving Davis, Fox and Johnson those briefs appears clever. Placates the Brexit lot but also gives them responsibility for extracting desirable terms. Fail and their political careers go up in smoke). Ultimately the Tories fortunes are strongly tied to those of the Labour party (who are, regrettably, an absolute fucking mess at the moment) so who knows what will happen in the next few years. If the last year or so has convinced me of anything it's that attempting to make firm predictions about these matters is a complete mug's game!