2023/24 League Two Promotion Thread

[Luke Imp]

L1 is going to be an absolute nightmare next season and be such a tough league.

They'll be a Bolton/Derby/Barnsley type of side staying down, Charlton will be nowhere near as bad as this season, they've hugely underperformed like Oxford did last season. The latter will be there or thereabouts because they always are with their budget, likewise Posh if they don't go up. Blackpool are always sniffing the PO's under Critchley.

Rotherham are a yo-yo club and always competitive after getting relegated, then throw in potentially a couple of Wednesday/Stoke type sides, Reading and Wigan without points deductions and decent spenders coming up from L2 and it's got all the hallmarks of an absolutely mental division where there's mostly always been a 50/50 split of the haves and have nots. They'll certainly be more money coming up from L2 than goes out of L1.

 

[AdamStag]

L1 is going to be an absolute nightmare next season and be such a tough league.

They'll be a Bolton/Derby/Barnsley type of side staying down, Charlton will be nowhere near as bad as this season, they've hugely underperformed like Oxford did last season. The latter will be there or thereabouts because they always are with their budget, likewise Posh if they don't go up. Blackpool are always sniffing the PO's under Critchley.

Rotherham are a yo-yo club and always competitive after getting relegated, then throw in potentially a couple of Wednesday/Stoke type sides, Reading and Wigan without points deductions and decent spenders coming up from L2 and it's got all the hallmarks of an absolutely mental division where there's mostly always been a 50/50 split of the haves and have nots. They'll certainly be more money coming up from L2 than goes out of L1.

How does it work then luke, i mean for those that make it up clearly it’s going to be tough,

From my perspective ive always looked ar it and thought well if lincoln can do it mansfield should be able to (not as a dig anything like that) but clearly its not that simple and then you see the likes of FG and carlisle come straight back down but then like a cambridge happily stop up

 

[Richard Cranium]

Forest Green never stood a chance really, didn’t they lose the manager and most of their best players within weeks of winning L2?

 

[WilsdenBantam]

How does it work then luke, i mean for those that make it up clearly it’s going to be tough,

From my perspective ive always looked ar it and thought well if lincoln can do it mansfield should be able to (not as a dig anything like that) but clearly its not that simple and then you see the likes of FG and carlisle come straight back down but then like a cambridge happily stop up

I don’t particularly like Clough, but with him in charge Mansfield will be absolutely fine next season. There’s a big deal made of it every year, it may have change but a few weeks ago 3 of the promoted teams were lower top half and only the hapless Carlisle will be going down. They had a crap squad when they got promoted and overachieved, those that go up this season if it stays as is won’t be in the same boat unless it’s Crewe who are one of those who always waste their opportunity after a year or two.

The post doesn’t take into consideration that some of these supposed big clubs will absolutely fail, like MK Dons last season. Heck if Lincoln can do so well for a number of years then we all have hope. Don’t reinvent the squad just strengthen it and you’ll be fine.

 

[Conker]

I think having a manager that’s done it in L1 with a lot less resources than he will have with us is a big benefit.

 

[AdamStag]

If we did go up one thing he will absolutely need to do is get more pace in the side, it was a problem when he took over 3 and a half years ago and still is now.

 

[Luke Imp]

How does it work then luke, i mean for those that make it up clearly it’s going to be tough,

From my perspective ive always looked ar it and thought well if lincoln can do it mansfield should be able to (not as a dig anything like that) but clearly its not that simple and then you see the likes of FG and carlisle come straight back down but then like a cambridge happily stop up

Like any league really, you get some who ride the wave of momentum (Orient, Stevenage) and then you get your Carlisle's. Then second season syndrome hits for some. This season should have been a perfect one for promoted sides to come into it with a lesser amount of 'big' sides than usual and two of the relegated sides getting point deductions and Stevenage are probably the perfect example of that.

You can be in horrible form and sit in midtable for weeks. We went 11 or so without a win, played September to January with no strikers available and couldn't score but maintained our position fairly well. And now we have some strikers, it's not too surprising we're on a good run and sniffing for the PO's (which I don't think we'll make).

Only half the promoted sides manage to last more than two seasons. If, as likely, Portsmouth go up and Fleetwood go down, we're then the third longest serving promoted L2 side in L1 behind Shrewsbury and Oxford (and they're both in the relegation/promotion mix), which is a bit mental considering next season will only be our sixth.

The below is from pre-season and it's not going to be too far off.

Statistically the relegated teams are likely to include:
- One (but only one) of Northampton, Carlisle, Orient and Stevenage
- One of Exeter, Port Vale and Bristol Rovers
- One of Cambridge, Cheltenham and Bolton
- One surprise, either one of the long-standing teams (Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Oxford) or one of the relegated teams (Blackpool, Reading, Wigan)

 

[Luke Imp]

The post doesn’t take into consideration that some of these supposed big clubs will absolutely fail, like MK Dons last season. Heck if Lincoln can do so well for a number of years then we all have hope. Don’t reinvent the squad just strengthen it and you’ll be fine.

We did reinvent it!

The first January in L1 we sold anyone with any value and tried to shift all the older and/or high earners (which was a good move in hindsight with Covid hitting). It was a bit of a bumpy ride for the second half of 2019/20 but we went from an average age of 27ish to early 20's and now around 22. Last I saw we have the third youngest squad in the EFL behind Posh and Reading. Our style of play has changed, the profile of player we're bringing in has changed and we have a bit of a conveyor belt of players we're selling and then replacing fairly well bar a bad summer of 2021/22.

We'd be a bit further on had we not be stung by Mark Kennedy for 18 months who didn't do what he said he would and instead turned us into a dour, risk averse, passive and mind numbing side.

 

[WilsdenBantam]

We did reinvent it!

The first January in L1 we sold anyone with any value and tried to shift all the older and/or high earners (which was a good move in hindsight with Covid hitting). It was a bit of a bumpy ride for the second half of 2019/20 but we went from an average age of 27ish to early 20's and now around 22. Last I saw we have the third youngest squad in the EFL behind Posh and Reading. Our style of play has changed, the profile of player we're bringing in has changed and we have a bit of a conveyor belt of players we're selling and then replacing fairly well bar a bad summer of 2021/22.

We'd be a bit further on had we not be stung by Mark Kennedy for 18 months who didn't do what he said he would and instead turned us into a dour, risk averse, passive and mind numbing side.

That strategy certainly doesn’t work for everyone, as always there will be exceptions however. When we got promoted we made some changes, but looked to keep key players who got us there and it worked fairly well as a stepping stone for the coming seasons. Had we not got an imbecile of an owner in 2016 I’m confident we’d be in the championship, but it is what it is.

 

[joethegill]

L1 is going to be an absolute nightmare next season and be such a tough league.

It was stronger 2 years ago, this season is probably the weakest League One there's been for quite a long time, very average sides are in with a sniff of the top 6.

Don't disagree that there will be some good sides involved but there always are, there's plenty of chaff in that league for some promoted sides to do ok.

Also, just noticed we went back into the play-off places after a poor draw with Tranmere. What even is this league.

 

[Tinpot and proud]

Like any league really, you get some who ride the wave of momentum (Orient, Stevenage) and then you get your Carlisle's. Then second season syndrome hits for some. This season should have been a perfect one for promoted sides to come into it with a lesser amount of 'big' sides than usual and two of the relegated sides getting point deductions and Stevenage are probably the perfect example of that.

You can be in horrible form and sit in midtable for weeks. We went 11 or so without a win, played September to January with no strikers available and couldn't score but maintained our position fairly well. And now we have some strikers, it's not too surprising we're on a good run and sniffing for the PO's (which I don't think we'll make).

Only half the promoted sides manage to last more than two seasons. If, as likely, Portsmouth go up and Fleetwood go down, we're then the third longest serving promoted L2 side in L1 behind Shrewsbury and Oxford (and they're both in the relegation/promotion mix), which is a bit mental considering next season will only be our sixth.

The below is from pre-season and it's not going to be too far off.

Statistically the relegated teams are likely to include:
- One (but only one) of Northampton, Carlisle, Orient and Stevenage
- One of Exeter, Port Vale and Bristol Rovers
- One of Cambridge, Cheltenham and Bolton
- One surprise, either one of the long-standing teams (Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Oxford) or one of the relegated teams (Blackpool, Reading, Wigan)

Pretty good odds at hitting them predictions naming over 70% of the teams

 

[Spanishstag]

Cloughie will make sure were able to be a solid league one team at the minimum no worries

 

[JJ1990]

88 - Average Champions, Predicted Champions
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 - Predicted Automatics
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 -
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 -
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 - Predicted Play Offs, Mansfield(36)
68 -
67 -
66 - Stockport(35), Wrexham(36)
-------------------------------------------------
65 -
64 - MK Dons(37)
63 -
62 -
61 - Crewe(36)
60 -
59 - Barrow(35)
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 - Gillingham(37)
-------------------------------------------------
54 - AFC Wimbledon(36), Walsall(36), Morecambe(36)

Mansfield have all but secured a PO at minimum right now, whilst Stockport and Wrexham are almost there after all 3 won this weekend. MK Dons are doing their best to keep pace after a great 6 point week. Crewe lose ground on the top 4 and now look to be fighting to keep their PO spot. Barrow make the most of their game in hand to pick up 6 points and move back into the top 7. Gillingham are holding onto the final spot in this weeks game of leapfrog, but 1 point from 2 games isn't ideal. Wimbledon, Walsall and Morecambe aren't too far behind, especially Wimbledon after a great week in which they picked up 7 points and kept 3 clean sheets.

Bradford and Crawley lurking not too far away as well. All to play for heading into the final 9-11 games.

1st - Mansfield, 69 points, GD 39: Tranmere(A), Bradford(A), Colchester(H), Wrexham(A), Accrington(H), Crawley(H), Forest Green(H), MK Dons(A), Gillingham(H), Barrow(A)
2nd - Stockport, 66 points, GD 29: Salford(A), Crawley(A), MK Dons(H), Forest Green(A), Wimbledon(H), Sutton(A), Colchester(A), Morecambe(H), Notts County(A), Accrington(H), Wrexham(A)
3rd - Wrexham, 66 points, GD 19: Harrogate(H), Tranmere(H), Grimsby(A), Mansfield(H), Doncaster(A), Colchester(A), Crawley(H), Forest Green(H), Crewe(A), Stockport(H)
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4th - MK Dons, 64 points, GD 10: Grimsby(A), Crewe(H), Stockport(A), Walsall(H), Notts County(A), Forest Green(A), Mansfield(H), Harrogate(A), Sutton(H)
5th - Crewe, 61 points, GD 15: Sutton(H), MK Dons(A), Wimbledon(H), Gillingham(A), Forest Green(H), Accrington(A), Morecambe(A), Grimsby(H), Wrexham(H), Colchester(A)
6th - Barrow, 59 points, GD 8: Walsall(A), Harrogate(H), Newport(H), Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Swindon(H), Bradford(H), Gillingham(A), Doncaster(A), Mansfield(H)
7th - Gillingham, 55 points, GD -5: Wimbledon(A), Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Crewe(H), Harrogate(A), Bradford(H), Barrow(H), Mansfield(A), Doncaster(H)
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8th - Wimbledon, 54 points, GD -3: Gillingham(H), Newport(H), Crewe(A), Harrogate(H), Stockport(A), Salford(H), Swindon(A), Tranmere(A), Walsall(H)
9th - Walsall, 54 points, 7 GD: Barrow(H), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), MK Dons(A), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Doncaster(A), Notts County(H), Bradford(H), Wimbledon(A)
10th - Morecambe, 54 points, -9 GD: Newport(A), Salford(A), Gillingham(H), Accrington(A), Barrow(H), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H), Stockport(A), Forest Green(H), Swindon(A)

Looking at the run ins, seems fairly well balanced. Every team has at between 2-4 other top 8 teams to play. Some very tasty fixtures towards the final weeks of the season as well.

Midweek Fixtures:

Tuesday 12th March
AFC Wimbledon v Gillingham
Crewe Alexandra v Sutton United
Grimsby Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere Rovers v Mansfield Town
Newport County v Morecambe
Walsall v Barrow
Wrexham v Harrogate Town

Thursday 14th March
Salford City v Stockport County

Not many big games in midweek. Wimbledon v Gills has big play off implications, as does Walsall potentially beating Barrow. Tough games for most teams, would think Stockport, Wrexham, Crewe and MK Dons could get fairly comfortable wins, but let's see.

 

[Luke Imp]

Pretty good odds at hitting them predictions naming over 70% of the teams

It's the four groups of sides rather than them all individually, basically that promoted sides aren't generally strong enough and/or adapt well enough to stay in L1 for that long and then the ones who do will try and change something to their determinant because mid-table isn't seen as fun enough.

Promoted sides last on average four seasons I think it was.

 

[Gassy]

Mansfield fans, what’s going on with Kilgour? Is he injured or just not in the match day squad?

 

[Conker]

Mansfield fans, what’s going on with Kilgour? Is he injured or just not in the match day squad?

Snapped his Achilles very early in the season, was brilliant before that.

 

[JJ1990]

I don’t particularly like Clough, but with him in charge Mansfield will be absolutely fine next season. There’s a big deal made of it every year, it may have change but a few weeks ago 3 of the promoted teams were lower top half and only the hapless Carlisle will be going down. They had a crap squad when they got promoted and overachieved, those that go up this season if it stays as is won’t be in the same boat unless it’s Crewe who are one of those who always waste their opportunity after a year or two.

The post doesn’t take into consideration that some of these supposed big clubs will absolutely fail, like MK Dons last season. Heck if Lincoln can do so well for a number of years then we all have hope. Don’t reinvent the squad just strengthen it and you’ll be fine.

Woah, hang on a second. We don't waste anything. Our issue is the same one it's been the last 2 times we've gone up. We have a squad of young talented players, but in the league above they mostly get sold and we can't sign L1 calibre replacements due to a lack of budget. It happened in 2013-16 and then again in 21-22. My biggest worry about us potentially going up this season is that it happens again next season.

 

[devilofajob]

Still hanging on!
A couple of right counties next.
Win those and who knows?
Last 6 - W4 D1 L1

Last 7 - W5 D1 L1
Season defining game next week? Against Stockport.

 

[AdamStag]

Now we’ve reached march, is the annual mansfield fuck up in progress?

3 losses in 31 games
3 losses in the last 6

Surely, it can’t happen again?

 

[クレイグ]

Enjoy your 3 points on Saturday, Adam

 

[JJ1990]

Massive win for us last night. Will go a long way towards securing a top 7 spot I think. 9 point gap to 8th with 9 games to go. Couple more wins and we should be about there. Not sure about pushing for the top 3 as the injuries are starting to once again pile up. Would still take 7th if you offered it me right now.

 

[AdamStag]

ultimately we’re as clear of 4th as we were this time yesterday, with another game less.

If the gods could conspire to give us a win at bradford while MK and crewe draw that would be a massive step in the right direction.

Like it’ll be that easy!

 

[chief]

We dropped the ball a bit last night, we should've got a result but those games will happen. Felt Mansfield and Stockport had the toughest midweek games, Crewe would have naturally been disappointed with anything but a win against bottom of the league but nevertheless it's a big result.

Can imagine MK are disappointed too.

 

[Spanishstag]

Its getting nervy still think were top three ,everybody is going to have a few wobbles two in a week for us but still looking good especially with the gd

 

[Less than a mile (WAFC)]

Crawley are creeping their way into the play off spots.

 

[AdamStag]

We dropped the ball a bit last night, we should've got a result but those games will happen. Felt Mansfield and Stockport had the toughest midweek games, Crewe would have naturally been disappointed with anything but a win against bottom of the league but nevertheless it's a big result.

Can imagine MK are disappointed too.

Yeah, yours and crewe’s game should’ve been 2 wins.

Whereas away we’ve bradford, you, MK and barrow it’s the 5 home games against colchester, accrington, FG, crawley and gillingham where we’re hoping to gain what we need

 

[Conker]

The fact we picked up three losses in six is concerning, but at the same time we don’t really do draws at the minute like we did at the start of the season.

I actually think we are out of form performance wise at the minute, after the highs of putting 14 past Salford and Harrogate. Not played well for at least three games now.

 

[Master D]

We slipped up which was unexpected but we also won at Morecambe which was unexpected.

It's just nice to be in a promotion race where you don't have to win every single match.

 

[Scum.]

Whoever wins the league will probably end up with the lowest champions points tally ever. We are still in with a (long) shot and we have lost 12 games. #worstl2championsever

 

[AdamStag]

We slipped up which was unexpected but we also won at Morecambe which was unexpected.

It's just nice to be in a promotion race where you don't have to win every single match.

Well this is obviously a competitive league so the differences are stark rather than a few teams (or just 1 this year) and the rest….

It’s a tough league and anyone can beat anyone, we’re just had swindon at home and tranmere away, both were decent and played some really decent football - yet they’re down in the bottom half.

The bookies still have mansfield wrexham and stockport as nailed on to go up, it’s not that simple (especially with us at this time of the season)