2024/25 League Two Promotion Thread

[The_Viking_Magpie]

As I said in the matchday thread, we're probably done. All the attackers that are even half decent are out for the next few weeks at least, meaning our attacking threat is now Shilow Tracey, who runs a lot but is woeful in front of goal and a collection of attacking midfielders or youngsters who aren't up to it yet. We might scrap out the odd win, but we could be cut well adrift by the time we get any attacking quality back fit.

Big questions marks over a number of things. The Gresty Road pitch is horrendous and claimed it's 3rd victim in 4 games today. How they fix that, god only knows. The management need to answer for their horrendous style of football, which has been dull and uninteresting to watch for almost 18 months now. They can grind results out with the best of them, but they can't grind out 20 wins a season. They can't set up a midfield or an attack to consistently control games or create chances and it's time to start asking if they ever will.

That being said, the budgets they are given are bottom half ones, so expecting consistent promotion pushes feels wildly optimistic. The club double and triple down on the academy structure, but aside from Connor O'Riordan and maybe Luke Offord, I'm yet to see a player that stands out as Championship quality in the last 2 seasons. Without a stronger core of home grown youngsters, building a promotion contending squad out of mostly free agents isn't going to work on our budget.

We could rebound and still make the top 7, but it feels like a long shot at this point.

A horrendous dull style of football and horrendous pitch is not the combination for building a fanbase and increasing your transfer/squad budget.

Need to change that or your are treading water no matter how good the youth supply is to the first team squad.

 

[Optipez]

I think the top three will come from the top eight now. From Grimsby down you're asking teams to pick up a minimum of 7pts extra from 16 games against teams that aren't losing many at all. A couple of teams may well falter but not all eight.
Playoffs look possible for loads of teams still if they can get a strong run going, right down to Cheltenham.
If I had to pick a dark horse to make the playoffs I'd go for Fleetwood.

 

[JJ1990]

94 - Predicted Champions
90 - Average Champions
89 -
88 -
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 - Predicted Automatics
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 - Predicted Play Offs
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
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66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 - Walsall(29)
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 -
53 - Notts County(29)
52 - Doncaster(30)
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51 -
50 - Bradford(29)
49 - AFC Wimbledon(28), Port Vale(29)
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48 - Crewe Alex(30)
47 - Salford(29)
46 -
45 - Grimsby(30)
44 -
43 -
42 - Chesterfield(29)

Walsall continue to stutter and come back to the chasing pack. It's not just the lack of goals which is a concern, its their defence suddenly crumbling and conceding 2 a game. Notts County chip away at the gap with another routine home win against Morecambe. Donny missed their chance after losing heavily at Chesterfield.

It still remains very tight in the play-offs, with Bradford leading their way thanks to some very consistent home form. Wimbledon too are relying heavily on picking up points at Plough Lane after only drawing 0-0 at Accy. Port Vale got an entertaining draw at in form Swindon and now have 2 massive home games which could shape their promotion ambitions. Salford are back into the top 7 after 4 points from Bromley and Tranmere. Their next 3 look very tough though.

Crewe slip out as injuries have decimated their attack. We'll fall into the mid-table group before too long barring a miracle. Grimsby and Chesterfield do their best to keep pace with home wins. Have they got the consistency to chase down the top 7?

1st - Walsall, 59 points, GD 23: Gillingham(H), Chesterfield(H), Morecambe(A), Cheltenham(A), Swindon(H)
2nd - Notts County, 53 points, GD 19: Port Vale(A), Colchester(H), Tranmere(H), Fleetwood(A), Barrow(H)
3rd - Doncaster, 52 points, GD 7: Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Accrington(A), Newport(H), Bromley(A)
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4th - Bradford City, 50 points, GD 11: Accrington(H), Newport(A), MK Dons(H), Salford(A), Cheltenham(H)
5th - AFC Wimbledon, 49 points, GD 19: Crewe(H), Salford(H), Fleetwood(A), Colchester(A), Bromley(H)
6th - Port Vale, 49 points, GD 6: Notts County(H), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Harrogate(H), Fleetwood(A)
7th - Salford City, 48 points, GD 9: Wimbledon(A), Port Vale(A), Bradford(H), Swindon(A), Crewe(H)
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8th - Crewe Alex, 48 points, GD 8: Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(A), Barrow(H), Chesterfield(A), Fleetwood(H)
9th - Grimsby Town, 45 points, GD -4: Doncaster(A), Fleetwood(H), Cheltenham(A), Tranmere(H), Walsall(A)
10th - Chesterfield, 42 points, GD 14: Walsall(A), Swindon(A), Crewe(H), Colchester(A), Newport(H)

Tuesday 11th February
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe Alexandra
Bradford City v Accrington Stanley
Walsall v Gillingham

Thursday 13th February
Port Vale v Notts County

Saturday 15th February
AFC Wimbledon v Salford City
Doncaster Rovers v Grimsby Town
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Newport County v Bradford City
Walsall v Chesterfield

Some big ties this week, with 5 promotion 6 pointers.

 

[gary]

94 - Predicted Champions
90 - Average Champions
89 -
88 -
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 - Predicted Automatics
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 - Predicted Play Offs
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
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69 -
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66 -
65 -
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63 -
62 -
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60 -
59 - Walsall(29)
58 -
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56 -
55 -
54 -
53 - Notts County(29)
52 - Doncaster(30)
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51 -
50 - Bradford(29)
49 - AFC Wimbledon(28), Port Vale(29)
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48 - Crewe Alex(30)
47 - Salford(29)
46 -
45 - Grimsby(30)
44 -
43 -
42 - Chesterfield(29)

Walsall continue to stutter and come back to the chasing pack. It's not just the lack of goals which is a concern, its their defence suddenly crumbling and conceding 2 a game. Notts County chip away at the gap with another routine home win against Morecambe. Donny missed their chance after losing heavily at Chesterfield.

It still remains very tight in the play-offs, with Bradford leading their way thanks to some very consistent home form. Wimbledon too are relying heavily on picking up points at Plough Lane after only drawing 0-0 at Accy. Port Vale got an entertaining draw at in form Swindon and now have 2 massive home games which could shape their promotion ambitions. Salford are back into the top 7 after 4 points from Bromley and Tranmere. Their next 3 look very tough though.

Crewe slip out as injuries have decimated their attack. We'll fall into the mid-table group before too long barring a miracle. Grimsby and Chesterfield do their best to keep pace with home wins. Have they got the consistency to chase down the top 7?

1st - Walsall, 59 points, GD 23: Gillingham(H), Chesterfield(H), Morecambe(A), Cheltenham(A), Swindon(H)
2nd - Notts County, 53 points, GD 19: Port Vale(A), Colchester(H), Tranmere(H), Fleetwood(A), Barrow(H)
3rd - Doncaster, 52 points, GD 7: Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Accrington(A), Newport(H), Bromley(A)
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4th - Bradford City, 50 points, GD 11: Accrington(H), Newport(A), MK Dons(H), Salford(A), Cheltenham(H)
5th - AFC Wimbledon, 49 points, GD 19: Crewe(H), Salford(H), Fleetwood(A), Colchester(A), Bromley(H)
6th - Port Vale, 49 points, GD 6: Notts County(H), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Harrogate(H), Fleetwood(A)
7th - Salford City, 48 points, GD 9: Wimbledon(A), Port Vale(A), Bradford(H), Swindon(A), Crewe(H)
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8th - Crewe Alex, 48 points, GD 8: Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(A), Barrow(H), Chesterfield(A), Fleetwood(H)
9th - Grimsby Town, 45 points, GD -4: Doncaster(A), Fleetwood(H), Cheltenham(A), Tranmere(H), Walsall(A)
10th - Chesterfield, 42 points, GD 14: Walsall(A), Swindon(A), Crewe(H), Colchester(A), Newport(H)

Tuesday 11th February
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe Alexandra
Bradford City v Accrington Stanley
Walsall v Gillingham

Thursday 13th February
Port Vale v Notts County

Saturday 15th February
AFC Wimbledon v Salford City
Doncaster Rovers v Grimsby Town
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Newport County v Bradford City
Walsall v Chesterfield

Some big ties this week, with 5 promotion 6 pointers.

Don't really agree that Wimbledon are too reliant on picking up points at home. It's irrelevant where you pick up points. I'd say having a good home record having the best defence in the league and being 8 unbeaten are all the ingredients you need to be getting promoted.

 

[Meadow]

Don't really agree that Wimbledon are too reliant on picking up points at home. It's irrelevant where you pick up points. I'd say having a good home record having the best defence in the league and being 8 unbeaten are all the ingredients you need to be getting promoted.

I wouldn't necessarily say that we're more reliant on points at home but we have more from home matches. My spreadsheet is on the computer downstairs so I can't be bothered to go down to access it. I think we're on 30 points at home and 19 away.

 

[valefan16]

Still hard to call, we were going to walk it in October, then Walsall, now everyone is talking Notts County, Crewe looked good for 2nd now out the top 7 altogether a couple of weeks later so its very different to predict, Walsall probably come back into the equation of not being certain now.

As alluded to in the match thread we have averaged 2 points a game since the turn of the year but I do just feel we might be a season short of being top 3 level despite the quality we have at our disposal, we don't feel completely well oiled and despite good performance levels currently we have lapses of concentration which cost us, against Chesterfield two errors together cost us 2 points, Saturday again a couple cost us in goals conceded when we really should be winning comfortably on balance of chances created, I just feel a top 3 side wins 5 out of the last 6 being efficient to get the job done whereas we drew 2 of them.

Could be wrong but think we are a year too early with the changes made and may be settling for top 7 come the end of the season, no reason we can't win the play offs though and could still change if we can keep current form but need to cut out the errors.

 

[Crewelad87]

Which direction is the mid table thread. Crazy how similar this season is mirroring the last. Injuries now killing us, we simply can't cope missing all of our senior strikers, Demetriou, Cononley and Thomas that's alot of experience aswell as fire power missing. We're not even due to get any strikers back from injury for over a month by which point I'd expect us to be way out of contention.