2024/25 League Two Promotion Thread

[The_Viking_Magpie]

As I said in the matchday thread, we're probably done. All the attackers that are even half decent are out for the next few weeks at least, meaning our attacking threat is now Shilow Tracey, who runs a lot but is woeful in front of goal and a collection of attacking midfielders or youngsters who aren't up to it yet. We might scrap out the odd win, but we could be cut well adrift by the time we get any attacking quality back fit.

Big questions marks over a number of things. The Gresty Road pitch is horrendous and claimed it's 3rd victim in 4 games today. How they fix that, god only knows. The management need to answer for their horrendous style of football, which has been dull and uninteresting to watch for almost 18 months now. They can grind results out with the best of them, but they can't grind out 20 wins a season. They can't set up a midfield or an attack to consistently control games or create chances and it's time to start asking if they ever will.

That being said, the budgets they are given are bottom half ones, so expecting consistent promotion pushes feels wildly optimistic. The club double and triple down on the academy structure, but aside from Connor O'Riordan and maybe Luke Offord, I'm yet to see a player that stands out as Championship quality in the last 2 seasons. Without a stronger core of home grown youngsters, building a promotion contending squad out of mostly free agents isn't going to work on our budget.

We could rebound and still make the top 7, but it feels like a long shot at this point.

A horrendous dull style of football and horrendous pitch is not the combination for building a fanbase and increasing your transfer/squad budget.

Need to change that or your are treading water no matter how good the youth supply is to the first team squad.

 

[Optipez]

I think the top three will come from the top eight now. From Grimsby down you're asking teams to pick up a minimum of 7pts extra from 16 games against teams that aren't losing many at all. A couple of teams may well falter but not all eight.
Playoffs look possible for loads of teams still if they can get a strong run going, right down to Cheltenham.
If I had to pick a dark horse to make the playoffs I'd go for Fleetwood.

 

[JJ1990]

94 - Predicted Champions
90 - Average Champions
89 -
88 -
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 - Predicted Automatics
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 - Predicted Play Offs
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 -
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67 -
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 - Walsall(29)
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 -
53 - Notts County(29)
52 - Doncaster(30)
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51 -
50 - Bradford(29)
49 - AFC Wimbledon(28), Port Vale(29)
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48 - Crewe Alex(30)
47 - Salford(29)
46 -
45 - Grimsby(30)
44 -
43 -
42 - Chesterfield(29)

Walsall continue to stutter and come back to the chasing pack. It's not just the lack of goals which is a concern, its their defence suddenly crumbling and conceding 2 a game. Notts County chip away at the gap with another routine home win against Morecambe. Donny missed their chance after losing heavily at Chesterfield.

It still remains very tight in the play-offs, with Bradford leading their way thanks to some very consistent home form. Wimbledon too are relying heavily on picking up points at Plough Lane after only drawing 0-0 at Accy. Port Vale got an entertaining draw at in form Swindon and now have 2 massive home games which could shape their promotion ambitions. Salford are back into the top 7 after 4 points from Bromley and Tranmere. Their next 3 look very tough though.

Crewe slip out as injuries have decimated their attack. We'll fall into the mid-table group before too long barring a miracle. Grimsby and Chesterfield do their best to keep pace with home wins. Have they got the consistency to chase down the top 7?

1st - Walsall, 59 points, GD 23: Gillingham(H), Chesterfield(H), Morecambe(A), Cheltenham(A), Swindon(H)
2nd - Notts County, 53 points, GD 19: Port Vale(A), Colchester(H), Tranmere(H), Fleetwood(A), Barrow(H)
3rd - Doncaster, 52 points, GD 7: Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Accrington(A), Newport(H), Bromley(A)
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4th - Bradford City, 50 points, GD 11: Accrington(H), Newport(A), MK Dons(H), Salford(A), Cheltenham(H)
5th - AFC Wimbledon, 49 points, GD 19: Crewe(H), Salford(H), Fleetwood(A), Colchester(A), Bromley(H)
6th - Port Vale, 49 points, GD 6: Notts County(H), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Harrogate(H), Fleetwood(A)
7th - Salford City, 48 points, GD 9: Wimbledon(A), Port Vale(A), Bradford(H), Swindon(A), Crewe(H)
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8th - Crewe Alex, 48 points, GD 8: Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(A), Barrow(H), Chesterfield(A), Fleetwood(H)
9th - Grimsby Town, 45 points, GD -4: Doncaster(A), Fleetwood(H), Cheltenham(A), Tranmere(H), Walsall(A)
10th - Chesterfield, 42 points, GD 14: Walsall(A), Swindon(A), Crewe(H), Colchester(A), Newport(H)

Tuesday 11th February
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe Alexandra
Bradford City v Accrington Stanley
Walsall v Gillingham

Thursday 13th February
Port Vale v Notts County

Saturday 15th February
AFC Wimbledon v Salford City
Doncaster Rovers v Grimsby Town
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Newport County v Bradford City
Walsall v Chesterfield

Some big ties this week, with 5 promotion 6 pointers.

 

[gary]

94 - Predicted Champions
90 - Average Champions
89 -
88 -
87 -
86 -
85 -
84 -
83 -
82 - Average Automatics
81 - Predicted Automatics
80 -
79 -
78 -
77 -
76 -
75 -
74 - Predicted Play Offs
73 -
72 - Average Play Offs
71 -
70 -
69 -
68 -
67 -
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 -
62 -
61 -
60 -
59 - Walsall(29)
58 -
57 -
56 -
55 -
54 -
53 - Notts County(29)
52 - Doncaster(30)
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51 -
50 - Bradford(29)
49 - AFC Wimbledon(28), Port Vale(29)
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48 - Crewe Alex(30)
47 - Salford(29)
46 -
45 - Grimsby(30)
44 -
43 -
42 - Chesterfield(29)

Walsall continue to stutter and come back to the chasing pack. It's not just the lack of goals which is a concern, its their defence suddenly crumbling and conceding 2 a game. Notts County chip away at the gap with another routine home win against Morecambe. Donny missed their chance after losing heavily at Chesterfield.

It still remains very tight in the play-offs, with Bradford leading their way thanks to some very consistent home form. Wimbledon too are relying heavily on picking up points at Plough Lane after only drawing 0-0 at Accy. Port Vale got an entertaining draw at in form Swindon and now have 2 massive home games which could shape their promotion ambitions. Salford are back into the top 7 after 4 points from Bromley and Tranmere. Their next 3 look very tough though.

Crewe slip out as injuries have decimated their attack. We'll fall into the mid-table group before too long barring a miracle. Grimsby and Chesterfield do their best to keep pace with home wins. Have they got the consistency to chase down the top 7?

1st - Walsall, 59 points, GD 23: Gillingham(H), Chesterfield(H), Morecambe(A), Cheltenham(A), Swindon(H)
2nd - Notts County, 53 points, GD 19: Port Vale(A), Colchester(H), Tranmere(H), Fleetwood(A), Barrow(H)
3rd - Doncaster, 52 points, GD 7: Grimsby(H), Morecambe(A), Accrington(A), Newport(H), Bromley(A)
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4th - Bradford City, 50 points, GD 11: Accrington(H), Newport(A), MK Dons(H), Salford(A), Cheltenham(H)
5th - AFC Wimbledon, 49 points, GD 19: Crewe(H), Salford(H), Fleetwood(A), Colchester(A), Bromley(H)
6th - Port Vale, 49 points, GD 6: Notts County(H), Salford(H), Tranmere(A), Harrogate(H), Fleetwood(A)
7th - Salford City, 48 points, GD 9: Wimbledon(A), Port Vale(A), Bradford(H), Swindon(A), Crewe(H)
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8th - Crewe Alex, 48 points, GD 8: Wimbledon(A), Gillingham(A), Barrow(H), Chesterfield(A), Fleetwood(H)
9th - Grimsby Town, 45 points, GD -4: Doncaster(A), Fleetwood(H), Cheltenham(A), Tranmere(H), Walsall(A)
10th - Chesterfield, 42 points, GD 14: Walsall(A), Swindon(A), Crewe(H), Colchester(A), Newport(H)

Tuesday 11th February
AFC Wimbledon v Crewe Alexandra
Bradford City v Accrington Stanley
Walsall v Gillingham

Thursday 13th February
Port Vale v Notts County

Saturday 15th February
AFC Wimbledon v Salford City
Doncaster Rovers v Grimsby Town
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Newport County v Bradford City
Walsall v Chesterfield

Some big ties this week, with 5 promotion 6 pointers.

Don't really agree that Wimbledon are too reliant on picking up points at home. It's irrelevant where you pick up points. I'd say having a good home record having the best defence in the league and being 8 unbeaten are all the ingredients you need to be getting promoted.

 

[Meadow]

Don't really agree that Wimbledon are too reliant on picking up points at home. It's irrelevant where you pick up points. I'd say having a good home record having the best defence in the league and being 8 unbeaten are all the ingredients you need to be getting promoted.

I wouldn't necessarily say that we're more reliant on points at home but we have more from home matches. My spreadsheet is on the computer downstairs so I can't be bothered to go down to access it. I think we're on 30 points at home and 19 away.

 

[valefan16]

Still hard to call, we were going to walk it in October, then Walsall, now everyone is talking Notts County, Crewe looked good for 2nd now out the top 7 altogether a couple of weeks later so its very different to predict, Walsall probably come back into the equation of not being certain now.

As alluded to in the match thread we have averaged 2 points a game since the turn of the year but I do just feel we might be a season short of being top 3 level despite the quality we have at our disposal, we don't feel completely well oiled and despite good performance levels currently we have lapses of concentration which cost us, against Chesterfield two errors together cost us 2 points, Saturday again a couple cost us in goals conceded when we really should be winning comfortably on balance of chances created, I just feel a top 3 side wins 5 out of the last 6 being efficient to get the job done whereas we drew 2 of them.

Could be wrong but think we are a year too early with the changes made and may be settling for top 7 come the end of the season, no reason we can't win the play offs though and could still change if we can keep current form but need to cut out the errors.

 

[Crewelad87]

Which direction is the mid table thread. Crazy how similar this season is mirroring the last. Injuries now killing us, we simply can't cope missing all of our senior strikers, Demetriou, Cononley and Thomas that's alot of experience aswell as fire power missing. We're not even due to get any strikers back from injury for over a month by which point I'd expect us to be way out of contention.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Still hard to call, we were going to walk it in October, then Walsall, now everyone is talking Notts County, Crewe looked good for 2nd now out the top 7 altogether a couple of weeks later so its very different to predict, Walsall probably come back into the equation of not being certain now.

As alluded to in the match thread we have averaged 2 points a game since the turn of the year but I do just feel we might be a season short of being top 3 level despite the quality we have at our disposal, we don't feel completely well oiled and despite good performance levels currently we have lapses of concentration which cost us, against Chesterfield two errors together cost us 2 points, Saturday again a couple cost us in goals conceded when we really should be winning comfortably on balance of chances created, I just feel a top 3 side wins 5 out of the last 6 being efficient to get the job done whereas we drew 2 of them.

Could be wrong but think we are a year too early with the changes made and may be settling for top 7 come the end of the season, no reason we can't win the play offs though and could still change if we can keep current form but need to cut out the errors.

I agree with you. I don't think we're quite as efficient as some of the teams around us. Defence feels leaky at times too.

 

[CFC91]

I don't think we are consistent enough, but we are good enough on our day for sure. Definitely strengthened in Jan too so if it all clicks and we get a few more back from injury we might on the periphery.

Still think we will finish about 10th

 

[TheEndIsNigh]

Walsall are quite lucky in playing Gills tomorrow who are probably the worst side in the league currently. A win might get them back on track. If they don’t it could really go pear shaped for them. To me it’s 3 out of 6 for the autos, I can only see Chesterfield going on a good enough run to threaten that.

80-83 points is almost certainly going to be enough to get top 3 this season, that’s 9 wins and a couple of draws for us out of 17 which should be very doable. As probably everyone says about their team Notts ability to fuck things up from a decent position seems unrivalled to me.

 

[valefan16]

I agree with you. I don't think we're quite as efficient as some of the teams around us. Defence feels leaky at times too.

It does but on the flip side we have conceded about the same as the teams around us, slightly more than Crewe/Notts, less than Walsall for instance and Doncaster.

Most of our goals against came in 4 games too! Barrow A, Doncaster H, Grimsby A, Swindon A account for 13 of the 32 so 40% of our season total which is madness.

 

[PaulHaddock]

Think we’re firmly a top half side but we just don’t have the overall quality of the top 6-7. Aside from Crewe, we also can’t compete with those budgets so I’d be happy to still be challenging come the end of the season but wouldn’t be surprised to see us miss out on the playoffs with a couple games to go. With a couple of additions in the summer, we could make a proper attempt next year.

 

[Grimsby Road]

Think we’re firmly a top half side but we just don’t have the overall quality of the top 6-7. Aside from Crewe, we also can’t compete with those budgets so I’d be happy to still be challenging come the end of the season but wouldn’t be surprised to see us miss out on the playoffs with a couple games to go. With a couple of additions in the summer, we could make a proper attempt next year.

I think our main issue next season might be expectation will be play-offs at least if we stay down . We always do better as underdogs historically , this season i expected bad to average and we have exceeded that really .

 

[GEORGE]

Think we’re firmly a top half side but we just don’t have the overall quality of the top 6-7. Aside from Crewe, we also can’t compete with those budgets so I’d be happy to still be challenging come the end of the season but wouldn’t be surprised to see us miss out on the playoffs with a couple games to go. With a couple of additions in the summer, we could make a proper attempt next year.

Are you ready financially to go up ? We've spent at least 1.5 million just to survive. Division three is getting harder and more expensive by the season.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Are you ready financially to go up ? We've spent at least 1.5 million just to survive. Division three is getting harder and more expensive by the season.

Agreed. We didn't spend nearly enough. Barely survived the first season and down in the second. It's not that the standard is ridiculously high, it's simply that the teams with a few more quid have players that can ruthlessly punish you.

If we come back up, I anticipate we'll be spending a lot more with our owners increased wealth. They won't want to make the same mistakes as last time. Added 2.5k fans since 2019...a top half attack on the league above could double that hopefully. I think the target is to have 10k+ in the ground regularly and you only really do that by challenging at the right end season on season.

 

[valefan16]

Agreed. We didn't spend nearly enough. Barely survived the first season and down in the second. It's not that the standard is ridiculously high, it's simply that the teams with a few more quid have players that can ruthlessly punish you.

If we come back up, I anticipate we'll be spending a lot more with our owners increased wealth. They won't want to make the same mistakes as last time. Added 2.5k fans since 2019...a top half attack on the league above could double that hopefully. I think the target is to have 10k+ in the ground regularly and you only really do that by challenging at the right end season on season.

We spent a fairly decent amount just on rubbish! Ryan Loft, money at Uche etc.

That said imagine our budget is far higher than in L1 now and would be interesting to see how big Carol would spend in L1 now shes sold the shares.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Expected win from Wimbledon considering Crewe's current form/injuries. I did suggest earlier in the season that they might tail away due to lack of squad depth. Terrible refereeing decision didn't help them. Said all along though that I saw enough in our game against Wimbledon at Vale Park to suggest they'll be top 3 at the end.

Walsall continuing to falter. They couldn't have had an easier game to get back on the horse....Gillingham are in appalling form. Seems like the crowd are getting a bit twitchy too. I don't think it will be long before one of the chasing pack is within catching distance. I honestly thought they were home and dry.

Bradford are perhaps the least glamorous of the sides up there, but they keep churning out results. They looked functional rather than spectacular against us on Boxing day but that's often all you need in this league. If they keep winning their home games, it's difficult to see past them for another spot.

Even though there's still a lot of football to be played, it feels like Thursday is more significant now. If we lose, we drift further away from the automatics, which would make it a tough ask really. 7 points behind Notts and 4 off Bradford wouldn't be ideal. It would also be a deflation by losing to an auto rival. If Wimbledon beat Salford, we'll be 6 points off 3rd. Again, not insurmountable but it feels a lot to claw back against 2 in form teams.

Win though and we're right in the mix with a pretty kind run of fixtures afterwards, with lots of winnable home games. 9 home and 7 away after Thursday. I've said all along that we're playing for 3rd place/playoffs. There are teams in and around us who are slightly more polished and look more like the finished article than us currently.

 

[クレイグ]

Don't think we've got enough goals in us to get top 3. Can't keep up the 1-0 wins forever. Happy to be proven wrong. Think we'll finish 6th or something.

 

[Meadow]

I'm quietly confident that we'll bag an automatic promotion spot, our first one since 2009 from the conference south.

 

[Mighty_Bantam]

Don't think we've got enough goals in us to get top 3. Can't keep up the 1-0 wins forever. Happy to be proven wrong. Think we'll finish 6th or something.

No idea why we chose not to sign a Cook replacement.

 

[LS Bantam]

No idea why we chose not to sign a Cook replacement.

Watching Kavanagh lose the ball every touch can’t be a long term strategy (although the amount of times we lump it up to him you’d think it was), Leigh isn’t much better. Surely there has to be at least one free agent who can hold the ball up at least once a game which would be an improvement on what we’ve got.

There’s been little involvement in this thread from us, let the Vale, Chesterfield and Notts fans do all the talking. But whilst we’re top 3, we’ve had quality moments this season that have set us apart from opponents which we’ve not had for years - Cook Vs Port Vale, Pattison’s strike last night, an entire team performance against Walsall.
Nearly all will depend on keeping Sarcevic and Pattison fit as their combination is match winning, an injury to one or both will be the difference between top 3 or not.
After last night we’ve now got the outright best home form in the league, 8 straight home wins, furthest progressed L2 team in the Paint Pot Cup and most wins in the country(?) in 2025.

 

[spireite]

Watching Kavanagh lose the ball every touch can’t be a long term strategy (although the amount of times we lump it up to him you’d think it was), Leigh isn’t much better. Surely there has to be at least one free agent who can hold the ball up at least once a game which would be an improvement on what we’ve got.

There’s been little involvement in this thread from us, let the Vale, Chesterfield and Notts fans do all the talking. But whilst we’re top 3, we’ve had quality moments this season that have set us apart from opponents which we’ve not had for years - Cook Vs Port Vale, Pattison’s strike last night, an entire team performance against Walsall.
Nearly all will depend on keeping Sarcevic and Pattison fit as their combination is match winning, an injury to one or both will be the difference between top 3 or not.
After last night we’ve now got the outright best home form in the league, 8 straight home wins, furthest progressed L2 team in the Paint Pot Cup and most wins in the country(?) in 2025.

I wouldn't say we're in this conversation at all. Until we can prove we can put a run of wins together on the bounce, which we haven't done all season, we're probably exactly on par in the table.

 

[OneDecentLester]

I wouldn't say we're in this conversation at all. Until we can prove we can put a run of wins together on the bounce, which we haven't done all season, we're probably exactly on par in the table.

I found that comment odd too. Where have any of us been doing ‘all the talking’ about promotion?

We’re still a new team gelling really with the amount of recruits we had to bring in during January, especially at the top end of the pitch with 3 new men making up our current first choice front 4. Last Thursday was promising, but it was only a few days before down at Cheltenham where we looked toothless up top, so we’re a bit of an unknown now, whereas earlier on in the season it was easier to make predictions about us.

I’ve said all along since the injury crisis hit around the mid point of December, that for us it’s about staying in touch for as long as possible ahead of the run in, in which we have favourable fixtures on paper, where we will also hopefully have some key men back from the treatment room (Grigg, McFadzean, Gordon, Dunkley etc..) & out on the pitch to bolster our depth & help us try and make a late push for the top 7.

 

[gary]

I'd say the next set of fixtures are quite pivotal. At the moment despite their poor run of results Walsall are still in a decent position to bag an automatic spot. However if they don't beat Chesterfield which is quite possible and two or three of the others in the top 6 win then I think there would be 3 automatic spots up for grabs once again.

 

[FiRTHYY]

Bradford are perhaps the least glamorous of the sides up there, but they keep churning out results. They looked functional rather than spectacular against us on Boxing day but that's often all you need in this league. If they keep winning their home games, it's difficult to see past them for another spot.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but interested to know what makes a team more glamorous than the other?

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but interested to know what makes a team more glamorous than the other?

An unknown African forward signed from Scandinavia is one confirmed answer#glamour

 

[GTFCfish]

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but interested to know what makes a team more glamorous than the other?

I think he just means by how you play, grinding out 1-0 wins as opposed to blowing teams away.
That’s what I took it to mean anyway.

 

[loz]

Expected win from Wimbledon considering Crewe's current form/injuries. I did suggest earlier in the season that they might tail away due to lack of squad depth. Terrible refereeing decision didn't help them. Said all along though that I saw enough in our game against Wimbledon at Vale Park to suggest they'll be top 3 at the end.

Walsall continuing to falter. They couldn't have had an easier game to get back on the horse....Gillingham are in appalling form. Seems like the crowd are getting a bit twitchy too. I don't think it will be long before one of the chasing pack is within catching distance. I honestly thought they were home and dry.

Bradford are perhaps the least glamorous of the sides up there, but they keep churning out results. They looked functional rather than spectacular against us on Boxing day but that's often all you need in this league. If they keep winning their home games, it's difficult to see past them for another spot.

Even though there's still a lot of football to be played, it feels like Thursday is more significant now. If we lose, we drift further away from the automatics, which would make it a tough ask really. 7 points behind Notts and 4 off Bradford wouldn't be ideal. It would also be a deflation by losing to an auto rival. If Wimbledon beat Salford, we'll be 6 points off 3rd. Again, not insurmountable but it feels a lot to claw back against 2 in form teams.

Win though and we're right in the mix with a pretty kind run of fixtures afterwards, with lots of winnable home games. 9 home and 7 away after Thursday. I've said all along that we're playing for 3rd place/playoffs. There are teams in and around us who are slightly more polished and look more like the finished article than us currently.

That's a fair assessment. Like others, I don't think we have enough goals in us for top 3 and if Chezza go on a run they can easily make top 7 and likely to continue that run at Wembley. Losing Cook was a massive blow, tempered a bit by getting the excellent midfield pairing of Pattison and Sarcevic back. However because of losing Cook, it looks as though the emphasis is to get the ball forward quickly to utilise Kavanagh's running. This might work if he knew when and where to run and if it didn't effect our passing accuracy for at the moment we don't actually look a top 7 side but 1-0 every game says we are.

 

[WilsdenBantam]

I think he just means by how you play, grinding out 1-0 wins as opposed to blowing teams away.
That’s what I took it to mean anyway.

He can't be classing his own side as up there then, as we've scored more and conceded less than them so must have had more comfortable games than them at various stages.

 

[FiRTHYY]

I think he just means by how you play, grinding out 1-0 wins as opposed to blowing teams away.
That’s what I took it to mean anyway.

Hmm, I think that’s a little unjust though. You could argue our last three 1-0 wins were a bit grind-like, but we’re only 7 goals behind free scoring Notts - and ironically, we’ve scored more than Vale, albeit they’ve played a game less.

For me, the question whether we’re good enough for autos doesn’t come down to blowing teams away, it comes down to how solid we can be between now and May. 6 clean sheets from our last 7 games shows we’ve perhaps found a way of playing which is just as good as scoring 2-3 per game.

Admittedly, we have such a tough April. Auto’s will be gained/lost here - for a number of teams.