Arsenal in crisis

[thespus]

i've said it before and i'll say it again. it's about time we did away with all the running and kicking and just played the game on paper.

Don't be left in the stone ages, mate.

This sums it up for me:

Football clubs are intensely secretive about the specifics of their use of data, especially where they believe they might have a competitive advantage. So I ask Marcus du Sautoy, professor of mathematics at Oxford University and keen Arsenal fan, what impact a greater numerical literacy could have on the game. "Football is much more of a game of chess than people realise," he replies. "It isn't random what each team does from one game to the next. There are patterns. And the strength of mathematics is to change an activity into numbers and to spot patterns and predict things into the future. That's essentially what the hedge-fund guys are doing."

A great article/interview: http://www.forbes.com/sites/zachsla...manchester-citys-player-investments-part-2/2/

 

[Veggie Legs]

I'm a fan of data analytics in football, but I think you're putting far too much stock in the numbers.

 

[Nilsson]

He's missed one match yet has created the 2nd (to Cazorla) most chances in the league

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Hazard 3rd in this list? I doubt anyone would think he's had a good start to the season.

 

[G-Dragon]

There are lies, damned lies, and then there is statistics.

 

[Whitechapel]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Hazard 3rd in this list? I doubt anyone would think he's had a good start to the season.

Which is why he's not first.

 

[Nilsson]

Which is why he's not first.

Being the 3rd best creator of chances in the whole league would still suggest a good start to the season.

 

[Whitechapel]

Being the 3rd best creator of chances in the whole league would still suggest a good start to the season.

Joint 3rd with Steven Davis who has played less minutes.

 

[mnb089mnb]

Steven Davis is having a good season then?

 

[Nilsson]

Joint 3rd with Steven Davis who has played less minutes.

Being the joint 3rd best creator of chances in the whole league would still suggest a good start to the season.

Could you share a link for the list anyway? I only said Hazard was 3rd because the commentator last night said Payet was only behind Cazorla, Ozil and Hazard in chances created.

 

[Whitechapel]

Cazorla way out in front on 22. Just looks on Squawka or any stats website.

 

[Super_horns]

Jack Wilshire out for 3 months now - Arsenal's medical team do seem to have problems detecting if a player needs an operation or not quite early on.

 

[thespus]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Hazard 3rd in this list? I doubt anyone would think he's had a good start to the season.

He is 3rd in key passes with 16 behind Özil at 18 - so if Özil had played 5 and continued his average of 4.5 chances a game, he'd be at 22 (rounded down) - 6 ahead of Hazard. "Good" is a relative term for the most talented player in the league- and Chelsea's dreadful start compounds this. My initial inclusion of these metrics was in response to a post claiming Özil wasn't one of the best CAM's in the league - I offered a response that went beyond "lol, you're wrong".

Here's a good side by side comparison: http://www.squawka.com/comparison-m...on/total_forward_passes/key_passes/assists#90

Premier League clubs spend millions of dollars on this stuff (considerably more detailed data, granted) - what is the argument why they shouldn't? Arguments against analytic are often lazy rhetoric. Data doesn't equate results, but it does identify trends - i.e. Arsenal are creating more chances than any side, but have the worst conversion rate. Their conversion rate is significantly below their average and below the Premier League average - unless we genuinely believe the likes of Alexis, Giroud, and Walcott are below average Premier League finishers, "goals will come" isn't a far-fetched hypothesis.

 

[merseyboyred]

Analytics in football is all well and good and is certainly gaining influence and improving, but the fanalytics I see do need a lot of work & further clear refinement. The defensive metrics in particular are ones that are a ways off imo. They would seem to work far better if football was boiled down into clear set moves and phases, I'm yet to see any that for instance describe the importance of speed in transition etc.

Plus I have to admit to being skeptical when whoscored had Phil Jones & Martin Skrtel respectively as the two best CBs in the league for the last two seasons...

 

[thespus]

Player ratings =/= using quantified production to support opinions/hypotheses. I agree those are rubbish. Defensive metrics are certainly more difficult to quantify than offensive contributions - Maldini being the perfect example.

 

[G.B]

How do you define a key pass? A pass leading to a goal scoring opportunity or wut? Not having a go, just intersted in what makes a pass "key".

 

[Whitechapel]

How do you define a key pass? A pass leading to a goal scoring opportunity or wut? Not having a go, just intersted in what makes a pass "key".

Same as chance created. Creating a goalscoring opportunity.

 

[shane]

What kind of wages is Wilshere on?

 

[G.B]

Same as chance created. Creating a goalscoring opportunity.

aight, thnx

 

[Whitechapel]

What kind of wages is Wilshere on?

£90,000 I think. Less than Hendo!

 

[merseyboyred]

£90,000 I think. Less than Hendo!

Quite rightly.

 

[Whitechapel]

Quite rightly.

For being injured all the time yes, but Wilshere is a future England great. Henderson is a brainless engine.

 

[thespus]

Same as chance created. Creating a goalscoring opportunity.

Key passes are any pass leading to a shot which does not score. Chances created are key passes + assists.

 

[Munkiki]

Here's a good side by side comparison: http://www.squawka.com/comparison-m...on/total_forward_passes/key_passes/assists#90

I don't know how they work out performance scores on there but I do like that Wes makes them both look like mugs

 

[G.B]

Key passes are any pass leading to a shot which does not score.

So a pass from a CB to a DM who balloons a hopeful 40 yard shot in to row Z would be classed as a key pass?

 

[JimJams]

Don't be silly.

It has to be 35 yards or less and anything past row G doesn't count.

 

[thespus]

So a pass from a CB to a DM who balloons a hopeful 40 yard shot in to row Z would be classed as a key pass?

Of course. This is a common criticism of using these stats - there are extreme occurrences like a Gary Cahill key pass to Mikel. However, I'm not using this metric to compare two players who will have maybe a handful of these instances - I'm comparing two players expected to be the main creators for their side. These bizarre circumstances would only make banalities of a CB to CB comparison - i.e., "Gary Cahill is much better than Chris Smalling, he has a key pass this season!"

I don't know how they work out performance scores on there but I do like that Wes makes them both look like mugs

Hoolahan has played well! But as I said above, I don't put any stock in arbitrary performance scores/ratings/etc. I only like to use quantifiable metrics to support opinions - chances created, conversion %, and the like. Being pro-analytics isn't a universal acceptance of every number contrived. The data is a tool, not the final result.

 

[JimJams]

 

[Stevencc]

 

[shane]

For being injured all the time yes, but Wilshere is a future England great. Henderson is a brainless engine.

Do people still believe that? I'm not doubting his talent as hes clearly a very good player and at one point, looked the future England/Arsenal Captain but:

– January 2010: Left hamstring

– November 2010: Back

– August 2011: Right ankle

– February 2012: Right foot

– October 2012: Right ankle

– February 2013: Left thigh

– March 2013: Left ankle

– May 2013: Left ankle

– July 2013: Illness

– August 2013: Right ankle

– September 2013: Right ankle

– October 2013: Right ankle

– November 2013: Left ankle

– December 2013: left ankle

– January 2014: Right ankle

– February 2014:Left hamstring

– March 2014: Left foot

– October 2014: Left knee

– November 2014: Left calk

– November 2014: Left ankle

– August 2015: Left leg

– September 2015: Left leg

Lets face it, hes got a bit of the Ledley about him. In a year or so, he'll be calling Spurs shit via Skype in a medical facility in Oregon.

 

[merseyboyred]

For being injured all the time yes, but Wilshere is a future England great. Henderson is a brainless engine.

This is peak Arsenal twitter.