European Union Referendum

[JoshBCFC]

Do rich people actually go to prison?

Was just going to say that. Doubt he'll end up in the cellar, probably just a fine and a slap on the wrist.

 

[Aber gas]

No, he’s going straight to prison. The little weasel

 

[Aber gas]

Parliament has passed a motion to have all 58 Brexit damage assessments made public.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ic-damage-vote-mps-force-latest-a8032311.html

 

[silkyman]

Davis now trying to claim that they don’t actually exist.

What’s worse? A minister blatantly lying about them or the fact that the dept for exiting the EU haven’t bothered to find out what the impact of exiting the EU will be?

This is the clusterfuck to end all clusterfucks, all on the promises of fucking rainbows and unicorns.

 

[Laker]

But the BBC said people have a greater feeling of wellbeing since the vote.

So it's all good.

 

[silkyman]

I do wish these lefty wankers at communist publications like the, erm, Sun? The Sun? Erm. Ok. I wish these lefty bastards would stop talking Britain down.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4857956/the-nhs-will-suffer-in-no-deal-brexit-eu/

 

[PuB]

I do wish these lefty wankers at communist publications like the, erm, Sun? The Sun? Erm. Ok. I wish these lefty bastards would stop talking Britain down.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4857956/the-nhs-will-suffer-in-no-deal-brexit-eu/

Commie bastards

 

[Cornish Piskie]

Brexit and the British press. The new McCarthyism.

 

[Cornish Piskie]

Since the Referendum, the EU has signed improved trade deals with USA, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, China and Australia worth many billions of Euros to EU businesses.

To date, Britain has signed none.

 

[smat]

Since the Referendum, the EU has signed improved trade deals with USA, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, China and Australia worth many billions of Euros to EU businesses.

To date, Britain has signed none.

Well to be fair we can't.

To be less charitable we've stupidly done this to ourselves.

 

[Cornish Piskie]

Teresa May recently told an audience: "If you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere."

For me, that was a dreadfully insular statement, a craven attempt to draw support from a nationalist sentiment that now seems to be the only weapon left in the Brexit arsenal.

The Brexiteers narrative, both before and since the Referendum, has been depressingly simplistic. It's all the EU's fault but things will be alright in the end because, well, we're British aren't we and we're a great nation and that'll be enough and anyone who disagrees is a traitor and should be hanged from a lamp post by piano wire.

Populist nationalism as a form of grievance and narcissism, each sustaining the other.

A recent paper in the Social Psychological and Personality Science Journal used research from UK and USA which shows that people who perceive they are part of a disadvantaged group are more likely to have an unrealistic belief in the greatness of their nation and thus support populist ideologies...... populism as both anti-elitist and anti-pluralist, a single group casting itself as the true representatives of the nation.

We fall for nationalist identification with cliches such as "Being British is an important part of how I see myself." and "I'm proud to be British." The latter statement comprising a belief in the inherent superiority of your nation so much so that it deserves special treatment, and the narcissists extreme sensitivity to criticism - that it is being persecuted by outsiders... in the case of Brexit, by Brussells Eurocrats.

The stronger the feeling of being held back, the more importance is given to the belief in national superiority.

The more Brexiteers are told they're being persecuted by the likes of Jean-Claude Juncker, the more pronounced their sense of national greatness. It's as though, in the absence of a coherent Brexit strategy, the believers are retreating deeper and deeper into nostalgic grandiosity.... into the symbols of old glories....a "Shutters-Down" Britain that brings the Blitz upon itself gladly because the nation was never more united as it was then.

And that, they believe, is what will get us through.

Will it..?



*
Source Author: Princeton University Professor Jan-Werner Muller

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

I do wish these lefty wankers at communist publications like the, erm, Sun? The Sun? Erm. Ok. I wish these lefty bastards would stop talking Britain down.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4857956/the-nhs-will-suffer-in-no-deal-brexit-eu/

While i am very much against Brexit i do think sometimes much of the NHS recruitment problems have happened due to the sheer laziness within England. We have an education system that pretty much prepares nobody for anything and on top of that an NHS that has found it more worthwhile scouring the world for staff than looking at better ways to train people within this country.

Not 100% sure on the Czech system, but from what my wife tells me of her past (and she is czech) they pretty much from high school try to paint from the pupils the direction in life they wish to head and give them relevant courses for their later GCSE years and 6th form and through to college (My partner studied Tailoring and Graphic design....something we'd never do here)

it's as if someone young can ONLY ever get the correct schooling for a specific job if their willing to pay horrendous fee's in order to do so because in basic school its more important to only focus on standard education courses until college.

IF we did some basic GCSE level nursing courses for 2 years, with a more starting to grow in depth course at a-level leading to part-time placements within local health services it would allow people to at least have their direction, choice, focus and some practice in place before pushing through to the next levels.

Could do similar for other positions....can understand many need uni, but the basics at least would either A: get some interested who maybe arn't B: put off early them one's who decided against it half way through and C: gives everyone the same chance.

 

[PuB]

Training in the NHS isn't quite as simple as that, the NHS tells colleges how many nurses and Drs they need and this is directly reflected in the number of places offered by those academies. Sometimes they get it wrong, as has happened repeatedly under this government leading to fewer being trained, and much fewer than we actually need. Hence why trusts are increasingly looking abroad to fill vacancies.

Add to that that students in nursing are now required to pay tuition fees (for a job that's around a £20k starting salary) and you can see why it's not all that appealing.

 

[Aber gas]

While i am very much against Brexit i do think sometimes much of the NHS recruitment problems have happened due to the sheer laziness within England. We have an education system that pretty much prepares nobody for anything and on top of that an NHS that has found it more worthwhile scouring the world for staff than looking at better ways to train people within this country.

Not 100% sure on the Czech system, but from what my wife tells me of her past (and she is czech) they pretty much from high school try to paint from the pupils the direction in life they wish to head and give them relevant courses for their later GCSE years and 6th form and through to college (My partner studied Tailoring and Graphic design....something we'd never do here)

it's as if someone young can ONLY ever get the correct schooling for a specific job if their willing to pay horrendous fee's in order to do so because in basic school its more important to only focus on standard education courses until college.

IF we did some basic GCSE level nursing courses for 2 years, with a more starting to grow in depth course at a-level leading to part-time placements within local health services it would allow people to at least have their direction, choice, focus and some practice in place before pushing through to the next levels.

Could do similar for other positions....can understand many need uni, but the basics at least would either A: get some interested who maybe arn't B: put off early them one's who decided against it half way through and C: gives everyone the same chance.

It’s not laziness. When kids are looking around for what they might like to do nursing is just not that attractive right now. Bursary cancelled, criminally underpaid, ludicrously overworked. 17k starting salary with 25k student debts.
I’ve got to be honest here, I usually quite like your posts but this is absolute nonsense.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

My brother in law's wife is American, grew up and got trained there, working in their health system for over a decade working her way up to a senior nurse. Comes over here to be with her husband, hears in the media about how we're crying out for nursing staff. Should be straightforward to get a job in the NHS somewhere in the south of England, for someone of that qualification level and experience in a world class healthcare system, no?

Two years of being messed around later, being required to take various exams including several English tests (she's American FFS!) only being able to work basic healthcare assistant jobs when she's worked in far more senior nursing positions for years. So she's taking her fella and buggered back off to work in the American healthcare system again, where they'll gladly have her and not put up years of barriers and hurdles.

Yet we'll all hear about how the NHS doesn't have enough nurses to cover the Winter again next week.

 

[Aber gas]

Let the NHS bashing commence

 

[smat]

Bit of clarity on the Irish border situation from Stephen Bush, after an EU proposal on NI staying in the customs union was leaked:

The British government position - restated by James Brokenshire this week - is closer to science fiction than a policy proposal. The government has ruled out: a) physical infrastructure on the Irish border b) a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom c) remaining in the customs union and the single market. These three positions cannot be reconciled with one another, no matter how many times government ministers use the word "creativity".

If you have a different customs and regulatory regime, you have to have some form of border checks to ensure that, for instance, the toothbrush you buy in the Boots in Dublin is safe to use when you plug it in Belfast. The political and emotional trade-offs are not easy but they are simple: you can't have an open border if you don't share a regulatory regime.

And because a hard border both disrupts the political balance in Northern Ireland and hits the Irish economy, it is tricky, to put it mildly, to see how it is ever politically tenable for Leo Varadkar or whoever is Taoiseach in March 2019 to sign off a Brexit deal that puts a hard border on the island of Ireland.

 

[.V.]

John Redwood is the British lawmaker mentioned in this article.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...-investors-to-take-their-money-out-of-the-uk/

 

[Abertawe]

Yeah boy http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...worker-shortage-uk-pay-rise-a8043221.html?amp

 

[Art Morte]

So, the Parliament will have a vote on the deal. I suppose it's right, but will throw a spanner in the works. The negotiations were tough enough anyway, now the UK parliament may negate any deal that was reached through those negotiations. It's like the UK is having two sets of negotiators now.

 

[smat]

So, the Parliament will have a vote on the deal. I suppose it's right, but will throw a spanner in the works. The negotiations were tough enough anyway, now the UK parliament may negate any deal that was reached through those negotiations. It's like the UK is having two sets of negotiators now.

It won't if there is no deal because there'll be nothing to vote on. And even if there is something to vote on, it'll be take it or leave it - and no-one in their right mind will want to leave it. So this is pretty meaningless tbh.

John Redwood is the British lawmaker mentioned in this article.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...-investors-to-take-their-money-out-of-the-uk/

Look, for all that's wrong with it, Brexit is very good value. Incredible.

 

[Cornish Piskie]

It won't if there is no deal because there'll be nothing to vote on. And even if there is something to vote on, it'll be take it or leave it - and no-one in their right mind will want to leave it. So this is pretty meaningless tbh.


Look, for all that's wrong with it, Brexit is very good value. Incredible.

And yet, the Government is insistent that whatever the outcome of negotiations with the EU and whatever Parliament has to say about the deal - or lack of it - they will press on with Brexit regardless.

This makes all those claims that the EU is undemocratic, quite frankly, laughable. Can we not see that it is the small band of Europhobes who have brought this upon us who are the undemocratic ones..?

It is quite clear in my mind - please feel free to disagree with me if you wish, but I would appreciate your reasons for saying so - that the mood of the country is drifting inexorably away from Brexit as more and more of the consequences of the folly of June 2016 become more and more glaringly obvious.

The lies and falsehoods of the Leave campaign during the Referendum are becoming more apparent every day. The government is in disarray but clings to its determination to leave despite having no coherent plan, the mood of the nation is swinging away from Brexit, Parliament is being ridden roughshod over and yet they, the dwindling band most vociferously pushed by Gove, Johnson and Rees-Mogg, are determined to see this through to satisfy their own agenda regardless of the interests of the nation or the will of its people.

We now have to face the awful possibility that not only is our future prosperity at risk, but also our democratic institution. If this small group of individuals can carry out their power-grab and get away with it, what is the future for British democracy itself..?

 

[silkyman]

"Russia is meddling in elections"

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/930181672259088384

But not our one, right? They left us alone, didn't they? Their long-term plan to destabilize the E.U. certainly didn't involve the Brexit referendum did it, Theresa? Everywhere else, yes. Rigged to fuck by Vlad and his chums. But ours? No. Not at all. That election that was plagued with 'fake news', lies, swathes of social media colluding with each other and who are still active, illegal spending of dark money and was led by pals of Assange and Misfud, and won by a swing of just 2%.... That one was fine. Right? Clear mandate, yeah? We all good?

 

[AFCB_Mark]

And yet, the Government is insistent that whatever the outcome of negotiations with the EU and whatever Parliament has to say about the deal - or lack of it - they will press on with Brexit regardless.

This makes all those claims that the EU is undemocratic, quite frankly, laughable. Can we not see that it is the small band of Europhobes who have brought this upon us who are the undemocratic ones..?

It is quite clear in my mind - please feel free to disagree with me if you wish, but I would appreciate your reasons for saying so - that the mood of the country is drifting inexorably away from Brexit as more and more of the consequences of the folly of June 2016 become more and more glaringly obvious.

Posted as best as I can without bias: The actual data suggests it's complicated (surprise surprise). It's possible to argue with evidence that there has been a small shift towards remaining or at least soft brexit-ing, from an out and out brexit position. But it's not at all black and white 'the country is turning against brexit'.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-swing-against-brexit/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/brexit-poll-opinium-eu-no-deal

 

[Cornish Piskie]

Posted as best as I can without bias: The actual data suggests it's complicated (surprise surprise). It's possible to argue with evidence that there has been a small shift towards remaining or at least soft brexit-ing, from an out and out brexit position. But it's not at all black and white 'the country is turning against brexit'.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-swing-against-brexit/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/brexit-poll-opinium-eu-no-deal

Fair comment Mark. But regardless of the numbers involved, the mood IS turning. Whether the amount be large or small, it IS turning. And with a very small margin of difference in the first place, whatever shift there is could be decisive. This is why the May's and Johnson's and Gove's are so determined not to allow a second vote. They don't believe the country would fall for it a second time.

And it is fair to say that what you believe that shift to be could largely be influenced by what you read. I have seen polls that suggest a second referendum that could produce a Remain vote of 60%. I personally wouldn't be too sure of that but it illustrates the point.

My personal gut feeling too, is that we British are a pretty democratic bunch country and plenty of people are willing to go along with the first result because it was what it was. A sort of "Oh well, let's now get on and make the best of it." Which is exactly the attitude the Leavers attempt to promote.

But given a second chance at the polls, and in the privacy of the ballot booth........

Another factor is the age demographic. It is pretty much undisputed that the majority of the leave vote came from the elderly part of the population and the remain vote was predominantly among younger voters. Since June 2016, a number of those aged leave voters are no longer with us and their votes have died with them whereas the young are still here and have become much more aware of what Brexit means for their future.

It is also relevant that many of those 16 and 17 year olds who were disenfranchised in 2016 will have achieved majority age by now and would thus be eligible to vote a second time. And every day that passes is an 18th birthday for somebody.

I make no bones about my personal desire to see a second referendum which I fervently hope would overturn the first. There.... that is my colour firmly nailed to the mast.

If it doesn't happen then we will all have to face the consequences and that will be that. But until the very minute that the Union Flag is finally struck from the EU, there's still hope.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Fair comment Mark. But regardless of the numbers involved, the mood IS turning. Whether the amount be large or small, it IS turning. And with a very small margin of difference in the first place, whatever shift there is could be decisive. This is why the May's and Johnson's and Gove's are so determined not to allow a second vote. They don't believe the country would fall for it a second time.

And it is fair to say that what you believe that shift to be could largely be influenced by what you read. I have seen polls that suggest a second referendum that could produce a Remain vote of 60%. I personally wouldn't be too sure of that but it illustrates the point.

My personal gut feeling too, is that we British are a pretty democratic bunch country and plenty of people are willing to go along with the first result because it was what it was. A sort of "Oh well, let's now get on and make the best of it." Which is exactly the attitude the Leavers attempt to promote.

But given a second chance at the polls, and in the privacy of the ballot booth........

Another factor is the age demographic. It is pretty much undisputed that the majority of the leave vote came from the elderly part of the population and the remain vote was predominantly among younger voters. Since June 2016, a number of those aged leave voters are no longer with us and their votes have died with them whereas the young are still here and have become much more aware of what Brexit means for their future.

It is also relevant that many of those 16 and 17 year olds who were disenfranchised in 2016 will have achieved majority age by now and would thus be eligible to vote a second time. And every day that passes is an 18th birthday for somebody.

I make no bones about my personal desire to see a second referendum which I fervently hope would overturn the first. There.... that is my colour firmly nailed to the mast.

If it doesn't happen then we will all have to face the consequences and that will be that. But until the very minute that the Union Flag is finally struck from the EU, there's still hope.

I'm not against a second referendum on the face of it. If one occurred in 2019 based on the terms we agree (or lack of deal if that may be) I'd think on it again at the time - but at this point I would side with leave again. I would prefer a negotiated and planned leave rather than a no deal harsh leave, personally.

Anyway my point: The trouble is, I feel you make the mistake of assuming a second referendum, if won by Remain, would be the end of it. No further arguments. Back to living in a land of happy rainbows singing kumbaya together.

It's a hugely sweeping generalisation to make, but I'll make it anyway for the purposes of this debate: the current data suggests it's very possible a second referendum would produce a small win for remain. Now the data was wrong on the first referendum remember, which also gave remain a small win, but we'll go with it anyway for the purposes for this discussion.

Even your suggested 60% win for remain, and there's little or no evidence to suggest that decisive an outcome, it would still leave a large population of the electorate wanting to leave. Realistically it'd probably be closer, probably another few percentage points in it either way again. For the argument's sake, lets give remain a bigger win than leave had first time round - say 46% leave 54% remain win, fair?

So if we accept that a 48% remain 52% leave result the first time around, wasn't a large enough mandate to continue brexit to it's fruition, it begs the question: is a 46% leave 54 % remain second vote a large enough mandate to stop the process and remain indefinitely forever in the EU?

Of course there would be a large campaign for another vote down the line by the large number of leavers, just like we've had a large campaign over the last 18 months by the large number of remainers.

Your assertion that leavers are octogenarians dying out is slightly disingenuous and flippant, I respectfully say. Age demographics and their trends would be a small factor in that time frame, but lets not exaggerate it.

And then we get into the legal arguments of whether Article50 can actually be revoked now it's been triggered by Parliament? Whether it needs the EU27 to unanimously agree first? whether we can be accepted on the same terms that we've been a member until now? Bearing in mind it's long been the case that further treaty change would trigger referendums across Europe.

Or would we need to go in on fresh terms like a new EU member? That'd equal the euro, no veto on ever closer union, no rebate, and all that jazz.

And if so - would that not need another referendum, because after all "we didn't know what we were voting for" when we hypothetically voted for remain.

You can see how it would spiral round in circles. That's a massive legal argument, that incidentally goes on every day between legal minded twitter accounts I follow (cos it's sadly interesting) with no resolution in sight regarding the wording of Article 50. Despite Lord Kerr's recent proclamation of the intention for this article, the legal basis for revoking A50 seems at best hugely debatable. Legal challenges would follow on both leaver and counter challenges on remain sides.

Where does it end? Do we keep having referendums every few years, until such time as one side achieves a super-majority win? Or until one side achieves a successive number of wins? If not, just about every argument you can make for a second referendum now, could also be made for a third referendum depending on what happens with hypothetically revoking article 50.

Wow - that got deeper than I intended

 

[mowgli]

So the bad losers will accept the best of 3? No chance they will whine no matter how many votes they lose. What i want to know is how many MPs.ex Mps,Ministers and Lords will be paid a pension from The EU so we can clearly see that they are thinking more of their bank accounts rather than what is best for The Uk.Nick Clegg is a case in point he only wants us to keep paying money into his account after he got kicked out in Sheffield Hallam and all he thinks about is how much dosh he can earn from The EU like Kinnock and Mandelson who don't give a toss about the ordinary workers in this country as long as they can continue to live a life of luxury partly paid for by UK taxpayers.

 

[Indian Dan]

I was living in Ireland when they had a 2 referendums - 1 to ratify the Lisbon Treaty the other the Nice Treaty. On both occasions the Irish voters rejected them.

In the fine tradition of EU democracy they demanded further referendums on both treaties until the desired outcome was achieved.

Fuck the EU and fuck politicians of whatever hue.

 

[smat]

I was living in Ireland when they had a 2 referendums - 1 to ratify the Lisbon Treaty the other the Nice Treaty. On both occasions the Irish voters rejected them.

In the fine tradition of EU democracy they demanded further referendums on both treaties until the desired outcome was achieved.

Fuck the EU and fuck politicians of whatever hue.

I think Ireland is a great thing to bring up - what do you reckon? Hard border/soft border?

 

[silkyman]

Posted as best as I can without bias: The actual data suggests it's complicated (surprise surprise). It's possible to argue with evidence that there has been a small shift towards remaining or at least soft brexit-ing, from an out and out brexit position. But it's not at all black and white 'the country is turning against brexit'.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-swing-against-brexit/
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/brexit-poll-opinium-eu-no-deal

The swing to change the result is only 2%. So if there has been a shift towards remaining that is big enough to be noticeable, then it’s likely to be a majority opinion now.

Especially with even May (trying very hard not to, but realistically) admitting that it was influenced by a hostile foreign power.