European Union Referendum

[Gassy]

Can't see what leverage we'll have at all what with being in the Yanks' pocket and surrounded by the world's biggest economy. Britain is better off as part of the EU, we don't have the power/influence of old and to say we'll get that back is just bollocks. The only way we *might* be able to compete is if the EU crumbles and everyone is fighting for his own which is exactly how Trump/Farage sees the world. The world has enough problems as it is let alone every single fucking country having a unilateral trade war.

In Hartlepool for example, there are loads of people (not everyone mind) who think the leave vote is a class war vs the 'elite' who voted remain. What they don't see is they'll be screwed over royally under any Tory led brexit vision. Rees Mogg and BlowJob don't give a rats arse about them. The same Tories who fucked them in the 80s and before. Beggars belief. And the immigrants will just be a different colour, there'll be no decrease!

And you know what the most stupid thing is about immigration in the EU?

I had to go through it here. In fact quite a few EU countries (if not most) employ it. When you come to the UK to live, if after 3 months of living here you don't have a job or the means to support yourself the UK can kick you out. To stay past that time you'll need a work contract, proof of somewhere to live & passport etc.

We can implement these rules, but we don't.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

No mate, under a deal we're still paying the EU - why do you think the implementation period was until December 2020? It's exactly when the money stops, it was the big argument about the divorce bill. Just to be clear, if we leave with a deal we will still be paying the EU.

The implementation period is the time during which the divorce bill is to be paid off (and technically is being paid off), but there won't be a divorce bill were we to leave without a deal. We don't pay a penny more in a No Deal scenario.

Tbh, there isn't much point debating with you now. IMO you're now just following anything that Boris and his papers will tell you - by the way, do you still think the EU are trying to ban prawn cocktail crisps? You ask for reasons why they'd come back, I give them to you and you just go 'nah they don't care about that'. Well ok then, I guess that makes you right.... The person who clearly detests the EU is the person who really knows about their values..? Like when you say remain MPs are trying to stop now deal. Great, I believe Boris said that a few days ago, it must be true.

I think given that I've been making these same arguments in this thread since before Boris was PM, you're just being wilfully ignorant and clinging to a comforting delusion that you can use to justify dismissing what I'm saying. I believe the examples you gave were weak examples, what am I supposed to do, pretend they're not? Let me ask you this, why on Earth would you believe that the EU are ready to negotiate a new deal when they keep telling you, for months on end, that they're not? What indication have they given you that the issues you raise have them on the brink of coming to the table? In the last 24 hours alone the EU have doubled down on the their refusal to get rid of the backstop.

People seem to think we'll have leverage when we're out of the EU. What leverage do you have if you're in recession, currency is possibly the weakest ever, highest unemployment & economy on its knees?

If your intention was to suggest that other people were making foolish predictions then I'm not sure using a hysterical doom-mongering fever-dream was the best way to go about it. I'd have thought people would have learned their lessons about Europhile prophecies of economic apocalypse by now.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Can't see what leverage we'll have at all what with being in the Yanks' pocket and surrounded by the world's biggest economy. Britain is better off as part of the EU, we don't have the power/influence of old and to say we'll get that back is just bollocks. The only way we *might* be able to compete is if the EU crumbles and everyone is fighting for his own which is exactly how Trump/Farage sees the world. The world has enough problems as it is let alone every single fucking country having a unilateral trade war.

We're the fifth or sixth largest economy on the planet with proportionate hard/soft power projection. The lie being peddled that we can't excel as a soverign nation is pure lunacy. The German economy in particular stands to lose billions in cars sales were we to leave the EU without a deal, and France would lose two third of it's fishing haul overnight. The EU has every reason to want a deal, but so long as the threat of No Deal isn't real they can (and are) having their cake and eating it too.

 

[Modernist]

We're the fifth or sixth largest economy on the planet with proportionate hard/soft power projection. The lie being peddled that we can't excel as a soverign nation is pure lunacy. The German economy in particular stands to lose billions in cars sales were we to leave the EU without a deal, and France would lose two third of it's fishing haul overnight. The EU has every reason to want a deal, but so long as the threat of No Deal isn't real they can (and are) having their cake and eating it too.

I remember politicians in the leave camp stating it will be the easiest deal ever, and Germany want a deal because they'll be so much worse off, yet I don't see them banging the door down to stop no deal, Germany will be affected but will still have the luxury of trading within the EU, but we will be totally separate and needing years of negotiation, and the best deal we can get is the deal we had before leaving.

Merkel didn't budge when threatened by Cameron and since the vote hasn't budged either, indeed Germany have already priced in potential loss from the uk and picked up alternative supplies away from the uk.

This idea of them needing us more than us needing them is just more self delusion.

 

[Gassy]

The implementation period is the time during which the divorce bill is to be paid off (and technically is being paid off), but there won't be a divorce bill were we to leave without a deal. We don't pay a penny more in a No Deal scenario.

Yes I know, that's what I've been saying all along.

You are the only who said:

We only pay into the EU budget whilst we're in the EU. We're not paying anything beyond October 31st if we leave

I think given that I've been making these same arguments in this thread since before Boris was PM, you're just being wilfully ignorant and clinging to a comforting delusion that you can use to justify dismissing what I'm saying. I believe the examples you gave were weak examples, what am I supposed to do, pretend they're not? Let me ask you this, why on Earth would you believe that the EU are ready to negotiate a new deal when they keep telling you, for months on end, that they're not? What indication have they given you that the issues you raise have them on the brink of coming to the table? In the last 24 hours alone the EU have doubled down on the their refusal to get rid of the backstop.

What points? The points of the 'surrender bill' - which didn't exist until last week. Anyway, there is a difference in saying 'I believe your points are weak' and saying "issues that will no doubt concern national governments, but EU bureaucrats?" and "EU caring about small businesses lmao" - that is hardly opinion based is it?

Regarding the points in bold, you're literally making up something that I said, or hinting that's the point I'm making. I am not saying and never have said they are/will be ready to negotiate a new deal or that they'll be on the brink of coming to the table. So let's get facts right please, thank you.

To answer your question though we need to define a new deal. What is new? Starting again? Changing the backstop? (not sure that counts as being new). The EU have always said that they won't just remove the backstop. And rightly so. You can't just remove it. Something needs to come in it's place, they've said if the UK come up with something better then let's do that, but ultimately they we haven't. So what do you really expect the EU to do? Are you some how of the idea that with no deal on the table the EU will remove the back stop? Yes I'm sure they'll be begging us not to leave and will remove the back stop no problem

If your intention was to suggest that other people were making foolish predictions then I'm not sure using a hysterical doom-mongering fever-dream was the best way to go about it. I'd have thought people would have learned their lessons about Europhile prophecies of economic apocalypse by now.

I'm not making any suggestion about other people making foolish suggestions, again you're putting words in my mouth. I'm not even sure how you got to that point. You said we can still negotiate whilst out of the EU. I'm saying only what pretty much every expert (including Boris' government) is predicting what would happen. So whilst we'll most likely be in a recession, GDP dropped & job losses, how on earth does that give us the power to negotiate with the EU for a deal? The EU could just leave us there & let us struggle. Make no doubt, we'd suffer more than the EU would.

 

[Laker]

Emily Thornberry taking a passing online. Apparently on Question Time this evening and said that a Labour government would aim to obtain the “best deal possible” from the EU then campaign against it.

I mean how is anyone meant to vote for a party with that approach? It’s mental.

 

[Fompous Part]

We had a referendum where we were promised the result would be enacted. However the remain contingent have done all they can to stop us leaving. They don’t want a soft Brexit, they want no Brexit. And that’s wrong in my opinion. It’s a total rejection of a democratic referendum result.

To co-opt a phrase once used by our friend Mr Tusk, there is surely a special place in hell for remain-supporting MPs who were elected on a pro-Brexit manifesto (i.e. all the Tory and Labour ones), who then spent the next 2-3 years doing everything to thwart it, and who now are clutching their pearls about the dangers of no-deal.

Take Jess Phillips, for example. I’ll pick on her because her typically mawkish theatricality in the Commons annoyed me yesterday. This is someone who was re-elected on a manifesto promising to deliver Brexit. This is someone who prattles on endlessly about the damage no-deal Brexit will do, especially to the automotive industry in her (Leave voting) constituency. Voting for May’s withdrawal agreement would have (a) honoured the manifesto pledge, and (b) helped to avoid no-deal. So, what did our Jess do? She voted against it. Three fucking times.

And, of course, this isn’t because she’s as thick as shit. It’s because she, like so many other remain-favouring MPs, thought repeatedly voting against the withdrawal agreement might lead to a situation where Brexit would be avoided all together. No-deal could have been avoided very easily, but Phillips and many other remain MPs decided to gamble. Given this, her criticising Boris and Cummings for gambling with constituents’ livelihoods is breathtakingly hypocritical.

And she's not even the worst one!

This has to be the worst parliament in living memory. I’m not going to pretend I care about prorogation. The House of Commons can be razed to the ground for all I care.

I’m a leaver and I was hopeful when Boris became PM as I thought he might actually be able to deliver. But his approach has been ridiculous and I agree that I think he actually wants no deal. No PM should want that in my opinion - if we end up there due to hitting a wall with the EU then that’s different but it shouldn’t be the starting desire.

The man is a Grade A chump (as I've been saying for years), but what should he have done differently? Why would it have mattered?

 

[PuB]

Remainers will be blamed, no matter what happens.

Maybe the people who voted for this shit should realise what they’ve done.

There will never be any winners though, we’ve all been played against each other, and when all of it is over, it’ll be normal working people who lose.

Such a fucking sad state of affairs

 

[Gladders]

I think Boris will resign next week as PM if he doesn't get the election before he has to go the EU and request an extension.

He will remain as tory leader though allowing Corbyn to try and form a government and then if he does Corbyn will have to ask the EU for an extension. This will allow Boris to campaign in the next election as the people vs Parliament, that Labour rejected the people while the tories are trying to respect the referendum result.

It's a high stakes strategy but about the only one that allows Boris to not ask the EU for an extension without breaking the law.

 

[Gassy]

I think Boris will resign next week as PM if he doesn't get the election before he has to go the EU and request an extension.

He will remain as tory leader though allowing Corbyn to try and form a government and then if he does Corbyn will have to ask the EU for an extension. This will allow Boris to campaign in the next election as the people vs Parliament, that Labour rejected the people while the tories are trying to respect the referendum result.

It's a high stakes strategy but about the only one that allows Boris to not ask the EU for an extension without breaking the law.

Too risky, Labour would call a 2nd referendum which would most likely cancel Brexit altogether.

I do have one question for people though. I keep hearing the phrase when people say "Well remainers have been blocking this for the last 3 years its a joke" and "what will another 3 months do they've had 3 years" - well, unless I'm mistaken May only had her first vote on her deal on January 16th 2019. So it's only really been 9 months. The other 2 1/3 years have been the Tories woefully negotiating bad deals.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Too risky, Labour would call a 2nd referendum which would most likely cancel Brexit altogether.

Their policy is mad though - they'll apparently negotiate a 'better' deal then campaign to remain (!?)

 

[Gassy]

Their policy is mad though - they'll apparently negotiate a 'better' deal then campaign to remain (!?)

True, just when we thought we'd finally got a clear mandate from Labour I'm not confused as hell.

On top of that, I just heard Lib Dems say they wouldn't join a coalition with Labour if the opportunity arose.

Very stupid of them if true, unless its just a tactic. It's their only chance to even get close to stopping Brexit

 

[Gladders]

Too risky, Labour would call a 2nd referendum which would most likely cancel Brexit altogether.

It's risky but Corbyn would require other parties to help him form a government which is likely to only happen if he agrees to a general election as soon as No deal is stopped.

 

[Laker]

The man is a Grade A chump (as I've been saying for years), but what should he have done differently? Why would it have mattered?

FP, I agree with all of your post about remainers so haven’t bothered quoting that. It’s spot on and your points drive me nuts as much as they do you.

On Boris, I expected a reasonable effort at trying to get a new deal, not a half-arsed visit to each of Merkel, Macron and Varadkar but actually putting forward some alternative proposals to the backstop which he (and most of us) dislike. I didn’t expect him just to do nothing and go for no deal. The leave campaign (of which he was a key part of) said a deal would be achievable - he should at least try to achieve it. Now I appreciate May has left him in a shite position to negotiate and I made reference to that in my post where I said we should still leave if he hits a wall.

With regards to his purge of Tory MPs, I’m split on that. He has ousted these individuals for voting against the government (in some cases for the first time in their careers) but this is something he hasn’t done before himself. It’s a) hypocritical and b) cutting your nose off to spite your face as he no longer has even a majority to work with. If he’d worked with them then he might have got somewhere, just kicking them out doesn’t get him anywhere.

I didn’t like the man but the one thing Blair succeeded in (in my opinion) was getting Sinn Fein and the unionists together to talk. He knew you needed diplomacy, you don’t achieve anything by cutting people out as Johnson has done.

On the other hand, cutting them out does clearly define the Tories as a Brexit party so maybe it’s a good thing. He badly needs an election though to press home and get a majority (which I think he’d get if he goes in with Farrage).

My biggest gripe is his lack of desire to try for a deal. I’d he’d tried and failed then I’d be up for no deal. But to not try at all is not forigiveable.

 

[Gassy]

FP, I agree with all of your post about remainers so haven’t bothered quoting that. It’s spot on and your points drive me nuts as much as they do you.

On Boris, I expected a reasonable effort at trying to get a new deal, not a half-arsed visit to each of Merkel, Macron and Varadkar but actually putting forward some alternative proposals to the backstop which he (and most of us) dislike. I didn’t expect him just to do nothing and go for no deal. The leave campaign (of which he was a key part of) said a deal would be achievable - he should at least try to achieve it. Now I appreciate May has left him in a shite position to negotiate and I made reference to that in my post where I said we should still leave if he hits a wall.

With regards to his purge of Tory MPs, I’m split on that. He has ousted these individuals for voting against the government (in some cases for the first time in their careers) but this is something he hasn’t done before himself. It’s a) hypocritical and b) cutting your nose off to spite your face as he no longer has even a majority to work with. If he’d worked with them then he might have got somewhere, just kicking them out doesn’t get him anywhere.

I didn’t like the man but the one thing Blair succeeded in (in my opinion) was getting Sinn Fein and the unionists together to talk. He knew you needed diplomacy, you don’t achieve anything by cutting people out as Johnson has done.

On the other hand, cutting them out does clearly define the Tories as a Brexit party so maybe it’s a good thing. He badly needs an election though to press home and get a majority (which I think he’d get if he goes in with Farrage).

My biggest gripe is his lack of desire to try for a deal. I’d he’d tried and failed then I’d be up for no deal. But to not try at all is not forigiveable.

And now he's come out today saying he will go back to Brussels, so hopefully he gets one. Whilst being a remainer, I'm fine to leave with a deal. I abstained from the referendum because I believe there were positives for both. I am however extremely against a no deal Brexit.

I remember thinking when Merkel said 30 days to him 'hmm fair enough', but since then it's just been silence on the negotiations. A bloke in Leeds made a good point saying "why are you here? You're in Xtown/village, but you should be in Brussels" - It seems to me that he's pushing more on a general election than a deal because the Brexit party will run in the election unless there's no deal. He knows they'll take seats away from him.

Today though in his speech he sounded like he had more conviction, so let's see if he can get the job done.

Quick question though, let's say its a hung parliament (as expected) - is the party with the most votes the only one able to put a government together? Or could Labour & Lib Dem for example also do it, despite them both finishing 2nd & 3rd? Or Labour & SNP etc

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

What points? The points of the 'surrender bill' - which didn't exist until last week.

The Surrender Treaty I referred to was May's deal. The 'Surrender Bill' as it's now being called, is a whole new embarrassment.

Regarding the points in bold, you're literally making up something that I said, or hinting that's the point I'm making. I am not saying and never have said they are/will be ready to negotiate a new deal or that they'll be on the brink of coming to the table. So let's get facts right please, thank you.

Then what's the point of the extension?

To answer your question though we need to define a new deal. What is new? Starting again? Changing the backstop? (not sure that counts as being new). The EU have always said that they won't just remove the backstop. And rightly so. You can't just remove it. Something needs to come in it's place, they've said if the UK come up with something better then let's do that, but ultimately they we haven't. So what do you really expect the EU to do? Are you some how of the idea that with no deal on the table the EU will remove the back stop? Yes I'm sure they'll be begging us not to leave and will remove the back stop no problem

We've already offered solutions to the backstop. You don't need a hard border in order to control trade. There are even allowances made exactly for this kind of scenario under WTO rules, so a political union as supposedly co-operative as the European Union should have no problem with it. I suspect in truth they don't, it's just another tool they can use to keep us in a customs union with them*. But yes, a new deal would probably mean starting again. Remainer May's deal is irredeemable.

*it would be interesting to see what the EU would do in a No Deal scenario, because my understanding is that both the British and Irish governments have vowed not to erect a hard border under any circumstances.

I'm not making any suggestion about other people making foolish suggestions, again you're putting words in my mouth. I'm not even sure how you got to that point. You said we can still negotiate whilst out of the EU. I'm saying only what pretty much every expert (including Boris' government) is predicting what would happen. So whilst we'll most likely be in a recession, GDP dropped & job losses, how on earth does that give us the power to negotiate with the EU for a deal? The EU could just leave us there & let us struggle. Make no doubt, we'd suffer more than the EU would.

I would suggest diversifying your financial news sources if you believe that every expert is predicting that we'll be "in recession, currency possibly the weakest ever, highest unemployment & economy on its knees". Boris' government is most certainly not predicting that. As for the power to renegotiate, hypothetical economic struggle in the UK would only make the need for a deal even more urgent for the EU, as it would hurt all of them too. Whether it hurts us more or not isn't going to offer solace to any of the money men on the continent. Personally I would be content to not get any kind of deal in the near future, I just accept that No Deal is the only way to get a good one. I think we'll do very well outside of the EU in the long run, assuming we ever get to leave.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

I remember politicians in the leave camp stating it will be the easiest deal ever, and Germany want a deal because they'll be so much worse off, yet I don't see them banging the door down to stop no deal, Germany will be affected but will still have the luxury of trading within the EU, but we will be totally separate and needing years of negotiation, and the best deal we can get is the deal we had before leaving.

There isn't any No Deal for Germany to stop. Our parliament has voted four times now to take it off the table. The Germans have had no reason to change their stance.

Merkel didn't budge when threatened by Cameron and since the vote hasn't budged either, indeed Germany have already priced in potential loss from the uk and picked up alternative supplies away from the uk.

German manufacturing is on it's arse at present, posing a genuine risk of recession for Germany. Merkel isn't exactly one for putting her people first either.

This idea of them needing us more than us needing them is just more self delusion.

I don't think anyone here has actually made that argument.

 

[MUFCdon]

Totally agree. No surrender to the EU.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The Lib Dems are basically a fifth column at this point.

 

[Fompous Part]

They’ve been the biggest bunch of EU fanatics in Britain for as long as I can remember. And you know what? Fair enough. Plenty of people I like and admire think Britain’s long-term interests are best served by further integration into a United States of Europe. I have no beef with people who think that way as long as they’re honest about it.

What pisses me off is when proponents of that idea are able to propose something that extreme and radical (especially radical in the post-referendum age, since it requires an outright rejection of a democratic outcome) and still enjoy a reputation for being fairly respectable, moderate, etc. Well, there’s no excuse now. A party that thinks nothing of a having a big public soapy tit-wank over Guy Verhoftwat isn’t trying to hide any more.

If people want to vote for that, so be it.

 

[smat]

Guy Verhoftwat

Could you not at least take ONE prisoner?

 

[Super_horns]

How many times will this "New deal "get voted out in Parliament?

The opposition and DUP don't seem too keen on it .

 

[PuB]

I think this one will only get the one chance tbh

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The threat of No Deal has the EU budging a little bit, but only a little bit. They still seem to be dangling a VAT sticking point now that the backstop is gone. It seems to me like this deal is something that in the end they'll only go for if they can't get an extension, and then even if the deal goes through there'd still be years of negotiation on a free trade agreement in which France and Spain wouldn't budge on us getting back our fishing waters. I would much prefer to leave with No Deal on October 31st and then negotiate a free trade alternative with some urgency afterwards.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

It's actually being reported that Juncker has ruled out an extension if the British government and EU agree a deal. I watched the video, but I can't tell if that's what he meant.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1184829572132560904

 

[Gassy]

It's actually being reported that Juncker has ruled out an extension if the British government and EU agree a deal. I watched the video, but I can't tell if that's what he meant.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1184829572132560904

So that puts to bed every argument you & others put together about how it's a 'surrender bill', the EU have no incentive to negotiate a deal, they just want us to be trapped etc etc.

The disgraceful comparisons of the EU & the nazi party is a disgrace and I really don't understand why people think they're so evil.

Oh and by the way, junker has absolutely 0 say about granting extensions. Effectively, it's the same as you or me saying it.

 

[Laker]

I think leaving on 31st October looks as certain as it ever has. Although Juncker has no say on an extension, I’m pretty sure the likes of Macron are as fucked off with this whole thing as we are now. I don’t think an extension is in favour anywhere now.

So there’s deal, no deal or revoke left. But revoke would require a big change in HoC thinking. So it’s deal or no deal realistically now.

It’s hard to judge the deal without seeing the text but I feel that the EU and DUP are so far apart that where they have landed was just about the best they could do to satisfy as many MPs as possible while delivering Brexit rather than BRINO.

I think it’ll get approved as no deal is unpalatable to too many. But it’ll be tight, I’m going for a single figure majority.

 

[Gassy]

I think leaving on 31st October looks as certain as it ever has. Although Juncker has no say on an extension, I’m pretty sure the likes of Macron are as fucked off with this whole thing as we are now. I don’t think an extension is in favour anywhere now.

So there’s deal, no deal or revoke left. But revoke would require a big change in HoC thinking. So it’s deal or no deal realistically now.

It’s hard to judge the deal without seeing the text but I feel that the EU and DUP are so far apart that where they have landed was just about the best they could do to satisfy as many MPs as possible while delivering Brexit rather than BRINO.

I think it’ll get approved as no deal is unpalatable to too many. But it’ll be tight, I’m going for a single figure majority.

So pretty much what we've had since day 1 of post referendum result

 

[Laker]

So pretty much what we've had since day 1 of post referendum result

You can quote part of my post if you like and ignore the fact I reach an opinion at the bottom. As long as that gives you a chuckle that’s fine by me.

 

[smat]

We are obviously not leaving the EU on the 31st. The deal can't pass, there'll be an extension and a general election. 100% there will not be no deal - no one even wants that, definitely not Boris Johnson.

All those radio adverts our taxes have been wasted on :-((