European Union Referendum

[Dirk]

OK, now you've got me. Good one!

 

[johnnytodd]

OK, now you've got me. Good one!

sorry mate was chuckling away here

 

[.V.]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38168942

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Surprised the media has been very, very quiet about the serious situation developing in Italy at the moment?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-a-systemic-crisis-in-the-eurozone-2016-11-29

With it's economy and banking system already propped up by the ECB, if the constitutional referendum this weekend goes the wrong way and topples the current government (polls for what they're worth, currently predict just that outcome), there's a serious prospect of a 2012 style Euro panic. Which the ECB is still trying to restructure itself to recover from now..

The EU and ECB are pushing for the reforms to go ahead. However the no vote, against the government, is being fronted by the hard leftest anti establishment Five Star movement. Which also wants a referendum on leaving the EU should it ever win the power to do so. A referendum loss for the government will likely result in a general election in 2017, or another stint under a technocratic government.

Italy's debt is on paper worth 1/3rd of the entire European banking system. The ECB are already up to it's neck with Italy, they'd be forced to go deeper and deeper into the mire with Italy by printing even more money and buying even more debt. Least the unthinkable alternative of Italy leaving the Eurozone.

Not heard a word of this in our press over here, granted a few bits hidden in newspapers, but otherwise not a jot.

 

[.V.]

Surprised the media has been very, very quiet about the serious situation developing in Italy at the moment?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...-a-systemic-crisis-in-the-eurozone-2016-11-29

With it's economy and banking system already propped up by the ECB, if the constitutional referendum this weekend goes the wrong way and topples the current government (polls for what they're worth, currently predict just that outcome), there's a serious prospect of a 2012 style Euro panic. Which the ECB is still trying to restructure itself to recover from now..

The EU and ECB are pushing for the reforms to go ahead. However the no vote, against the government, is being fronted by the hard leftest anti establishment Five Star movement. Which also wants a referendum on leaving the EU should it ever win the power to do so. A referendum loss for the government will likely result in a general election in 2017, or another stint under a technocratic government.

Italy's debt is on paper worth 1/3rd of the entire European banking system. The ECB are already up to it's neck with Italy, they'd be forced to go deeper and deeper into the mire with Italy by printing even more money and buying even more debt. Least the unthinkable alternative of Italy leaving the Eurozone.

Not heard a word of this in our press over here, granted a few bits hidden in newspapers, but otherwise not a jot.

There was an article in last Sunday's Observer, wasn't near the front of the paper either.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....aly-european-union-brexit-trump?client=safari

 

[Abertawe]

Now that's scary.

"In 2015, for the first time Romania was the most common country of last residence, making up 10% of all immigrants."

 

[Alty]

Now that's scary.

"In 2015, for the first time Romania was the most common country of last residence, making up 10% of all immigrants."

The figures on Romanian crime in Italy are absolutely insane.

 

[mnb089mnb]

The figures on Romanian crime in Italy are absolutely insane.

You won't believe what these Bulgarian immigrants look like now.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

The figures on Romanian crime in Italy are absolutely insane.

Fucking hate this. Alty chucks around some unsubstantiated claim and now I'm spending my Saturday morning copying and pasting chunks of academic papers into Google Translate.

To respond to your claim: no they're not*. Had a look. The figures are not "insane". Legal migrants in Italy (of which slightly more than half are Romanian) are responsible for only slightly more crime per-capita than people born in Italy, when adjusted for age (this adjustment is the crucial thing which some reports often miss when coming up with their sensationalist figures). When you adjust for the fact that legal migrants are most commonly arrested for violations of immigration laws, the crime rate for legal migrants in Italy (of which Romanians are part) is no higher than it is for the settled population.

Note that migrants are also subject to far more police harassment than people born in Italy, and are far more likely to be imprisoned when arrested than Italians.

Undocumented migrants are responsible for more crime than the settled population - largely because they need to, by definition, exist in the black economy. They are far more likely to commit petty acquisitive crime than people with regularised immigration status. But Italian experience has shown that offering amnesty to regularise undocumented migrants lowers the crime rate.

Get back to your phrenology, Alty.

* note on my methodology - couldn't really find a paper more recent than 2009 - so I used this research from 2009 and cross-referenced with this piece of dishonest sensationalist garbage from a couple of weeks ago. The conclusions from the 2009 report, as far as I can tell - bear in mind I don't speak Italian - remain valid (i.e. assuming the demographics in terms of age etc of migrant groups are roughly as they were in 2009, the figures for crime rates, the 2016 figures would equalise when adjusted for age and removing immigration offences).

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

I have a friend from Romania, I wouldn't describe him as 'disgusting and vile'. Good chap actually.

 

[Abertawe]

No you don't. Even if you did he'd be a middle class mania and not indicative of the creatures I'm referring to.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Lawl

 

[Alty]

Fucking hate this. Alty chucks around some unsubstantiated claim and now I'm spending my Saturday morning copying and pasting chunks of academic papers into Google Translate.

To respond to your claim: no they're not*. Had a look. The figures are not "insane". Legal migrants in Italy (of which slightly more than half are Romanian) are responsible for only slightly more crime per-capita than people born in Italy, when adjusted for age (this adjustment is the crucial thing which some reports often miss when coming up with their sensationalist figures). When you adjust for the fact that legal migrants are most commonly arrested for violations of immigration laws, the crime rate for legal migrants in Italy (of which Romanians are part) is no higher than it is for the settled population.

Note that migrants are also subject to far more police harassment than people born in Italy, and are far more likely to be imprisoned when arrested than Italians.

Undocumented migrants are responsible for more crime than the settled population - largely because they need to, by definition, exist in the black economy. They are far more likely to commit petty acquisitive crime than people with regularised immigration status. But Italian experience has shown that offering amnesty to regularise undocumented migrants lowers the crime rate.

Get back to your phrenology, Alty.

* note on my methodology - couldn't really find a paper more recent than 2009 - so I used this research from 2009 and cross-referenced with this piece of dishonest sensationalist garbage from a couple of weeks ago. The conclusions from the 2009 report, as far as I can tell - bear in mind I don't speak Italian - remain valid (i.e. assuming the demographics in terms of age etc of migrant groups are roughly as they were in 2009, the figures for crime rates, the 2016 figures would equalise when adjusted for age and removing immigration offences).

Yet again I have to defend myself against unpleasant accusations from a true believer on the regressive left. This is getting very tedious now. I know that from your perspective it's probably easier to convince yourself that someone like me is a thick, racist white cis male who doesn't understand other people's lives and who's desperately looking for any excuse to discriminate against all non-WASPs. But sorry, there's a little more to it than that.

Abertawe's point is a very valid one. But let's play it your way and ignore unreported crimes completely. Almost 90% of ECRIS checks in Italy relate to Romanian nationals. Now, maybe the Italian police aren't that bothered about Croatian, Bulgarian, French or British criminals being in their country and so don't bother asking for ECRIS checks when nationals of those countries are involved in crime. Or maybe, just maybe, there's a serious issue with Romanian criminality.

I like the way you breeze into your point about undocumented migrants needing to resort to criminality in order to survive in the black economy. The only point I'd made was that Romanian criminality was a serious problem in Italy. And Romanians are enitled to live and work (or just to turn up and say they're looking for work) in Italy. So why the hell would they need to squeak by using the black economy?

In a way I admire you for arguing these points as best you can. You're a neo-Marxist and you defend that stance by obfuscating and misdirecting. But I'd like to think most sane people would acknowledge Romania has a serious problem with criminality and that opening one's borders to that country unconditionally might cause a few problems.

 

[TheMinsterman]

Yet again I have to defend myself against unpleasant accusations from a true believer on the regressive left.

You forgot to call him a cuck too.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Yet again I have to defend myself against unpleasant accusations from a true believer on the regressive left. This is getting very tedious now. I know that from your perspective it's probably easier to convince yourself that someone like me is a thick, racist white cis male who doesn't understand other people's lives and who's desperately looking for any excuse to discriminate against all non-WASPs. But sorry, there's a little more to it than that.

I actually don't think you're thick. Which is why I think it's worth posting a comprehensive takedown of your anti-migrant smears.

Abertawe's point is a very valid one. But let's play it your way and ignore unreported crimes completely. Almost 90% of ECRIS checks in Italy relate to Romanian nationals. Now, maybe the Italian police aren't that bothered about Croatian, Bulgarian, French or British criminals being in their country and so don't bother asking for ECRIS checks when nationals of those countries are involved in crime. Or maybe, just maybe, there's a serious issue with Romanian criminality.

Romanians, mostly for linguistic reasons (as in Romanian is more intelligible to Italians than a lot of dialect Italian) form a large migrant bloc in Italy. There are over 1.1m Romanians in Italy (around 2% of the population). The next largest EU migrant bloc is Polish nationals, of which there are fewer than 100,000 in Italy. Romanians make up almost 90% of ECRIS checks because they make up almost 90% of the EU national population. I don't understand how this is difficult.

I like the way you breeze into your point about undocumented migrants needing to resort to criminality in order to survive in the black economy. The only point I'd made was that Romanian criminality was a serious problem in Italy. And Romanians are enitled to live and work (or just to turn up and say they're looking for work) in Italy. So why the hell would they need to squeak by using the black economy?

I didn't say Romanians did need to use the black economy. I was talking about migrant myths - the migrant crime wave being one - but it's dishonest not to acknowledge criminal activity associated with undocumented migration. Areas that have high levels of undocumented migration in Italy do suffer waves of acquisitive crime. But the solution to this is regularising the status of undocumented migrants and allowing them to work.

In a way I admire you for arguing these points as best you can. You're a neo-Marxist and you defend that stance by obfuscating and misdirecting. But I'd like to think most sane people would acknowledge Romania has a serious problem with criminality and that opening one's borders to that country unconditionally might cause a few problems.

I've provided facts and figures. I've looked up and linked academic papers, to newspaper reports that argue against my position and tried to include explanations of why they are misleading. I don't need to obfuscate or misdirect on this issue, and I haven't done so. I'm sorry you're getting owned so hard here, I really am, but if you think that political arguments on football messageboards are often made with this level of commitment to transparency and clarity, the Altrincham forum is probably a better read than I'd have imagined.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

On the other hand, i do think Alty is pretty thick.

 

[Alty]

I actually don't think you're thick. Which is why I think it's worth posting a comprehensive takedown of your anti-migrant smears.

Anti-migrant smears? I know we're in a post-truth world now but it's sad that simply stating a fact is frowned upon. Believe it or not I'm not desperate to advance an agenda that sees Romanians removed from Italy. It's up to those countries what they do. Doesn't affect me.

Romanians, mostly for linguistic reasons (as in Romanian is more intelligible to Italians than a lot of dialect Italian) form a large migrant bloc in Italy. There are over 1.1m Romanians in Italy (around 2% of the population). The next largest EU migrant bloc is Polish nationals, of which there are fewer than 100,000 in Italy. Romanians make up almost 90% of ECRIS checks because they make up almost 90% of the EU national population. I don't understand how this is difficult.

There are actually more than 100,000 Poles in Italy. The only other country for which I know the figure is the UK and there are around 70,000 Brits in Italy. So your claim about proportionality is only true if there are approximately 0 other EU nationals resident in Italy.

Starting to see why it's difficult?

I didn't say Romanians did need to use the black economy. I was talking about migrant myths - the migrant crime wave being one - but it's dishonest not to acknowledge criminal activity associated with undocumented migration. Areas that have high levels of undocumented migration in Italy do suffer waves of acquisitive crime. But the solution to this is regularising the status of undocumented migrants and allowing them to work.

I think we did the whole amnesty discussion a while back in the thread about Byron Burger, so I can't be arsed regurgitating all that again. However, if you're genuinely interested in a counter-argument then Captain Scumbag is probably your man. He makes the case much more eloquently than I ever could.

I've provided facts and figures. I've looked up and linked academic papers, to newspaper reports that argue against my position and tried to include explanations of why they are misleading. I don't need to obfuscate or misdirect on this issue, and I haven't done so. I'm sorry you're getting owned so hard here, I really am, but if you think that political arguments on football messageboards are often made with this level of commitment to transparency and clarity, the Altrincham forum is probably a better read than I'd have imagined.

Yes, misleading figures followed by a false claim about the level of Romanian criminality being exactly as you'd expect given the size of the population. You can look at other country data, including the UK's, and it'll show the same thing. The vast majority of Czechs and Poles in the UK are law-abiding. But Romanians and Lithuanians commit proportionally way more crime. These are just facts and don't betray any animosity towards anyone.

As for "I'm sorry you're getting owned so hard here, I really am". Fucking hell. I'm 30 and I suspect you're a similar age. Do we really have to resort to this?

 

[Alty]

On the other hand, i do think Alty is pretty thick.

It's certainly true that I don't understand most of what you post. And I have literally no idea why your most pressing priority at gone 4 in the morning would be to insult me. Maybe all this does show just how stupid I am...

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Sorry Alty.

 

[Martino Quackavelli]

On the other hand, i do think Alty is pretty thick.

*I

 

[Abertawe]

Ian has been extremely rude to Alty yet hasn't offered anything that either disproves what he's said or justifies his level of rudeness. Even more bizarre is the amount of likes he accumulated from a post lacking anything in the way of substance but high on vitriol. What doesn't surprise me is that those liking are prime metropolitan bubble types.

Romanians and in particular roma gypsies equal crime. That isn't discriminating, it's stating the reality. Ian can be as wet as he likes, if a few roma families were to move into his street his quality of life would go down as a result. It's pretty obvious why Romanians commit so much crime but that isn't our problem to solve and it isn't something that the liberal metro soldiers should use as an excuse. Until Romania cleans itself the majority of it's working age people don't represent a net worth to us. Any free movement deal should reflect that. Underdeveloped countries stricken with poverty and deprivation such as Romania should be excluded as to uphold the standards of the country.

Romanians are plaguing the EU. We have a chance to cure ourselves of what is essentially a disease.

 

[Red]

I liked his post, I'm working class, from a working class and northern background. Anything but a metropolitan bubble type. Typing what you did is quite indicative of your narrow outlook. In sum you're talking bollocks.

 

[Abertawe]

I liked his post, I'm working class, from a working class and northern background. Anything but a metropolitan bubble type. Typing what you did is quite indicative of your narrow outlook. In sum you're talking bollocks.

I fail to see how your reasoning for being "anything but a metropolitan bubble type" stands up to any sort of logic. Neither of the two things you cite exclude one from being a metro-liberal ignorant twonk type. In your circumstance I don't believe you went to university (correct me if I'm wrong) so that would exclude you on the metro side. To like that post was to submit to being a person that chooses to ignore all evidence in favour of the world they've created that exists only in their bubble. Alty said nothing wrong yet he was attacked on various fronts by Ian and all his bubble comrades came to the like. Any member can "like what they want" but when you're liking a post that was for all intents & purposes just an attack to defame someone on the basis of not contriving to their bubble then that's pretty muggy. Ian seemingly made his original post up as he went along and his *methodology was more basic than Jonny T's eating habits. "Most Romanians are arrested on immigration offences and that's the only reason the statistics look bad" Who the fuck is this guy as Conor would say. Romanians have free movement, immigration offence what, "I'm an EU citizen bro!". What he states can be said of Moroc/Tunis Italian dwellers because they don't have free movement and there was a period when Romanians were arrested & expelled for having a criminal record because of the very thing Alty said, THERE WAS A WAVE OF SERIOUS CRIME sweeping areas that roma gypsies were residing in. So as I say, Ian (nothing against him, I come to the same conclusion as him on a range of subjects) said fuck all to disprove Alty or justify the scorn. Just made himself look a prat. The line "I'm sorry you're getting owned so hard here" is just as bad as it gets. It's telltale that he was playing up to something (in this case it was fellow bubble heads) but even worse it was to purposely flaunt what was essentially bully boy behaviour. Just poor form by all involved parties. Following the fool is no excuse and association is an unwritten law so to like that post also made you a bully on this occasion. You are what you consistently do so be careful to side with bullies too many rimes or else you'll become one.

 

[Red]

I fail to see how your reasoning for being "anything but a metropolitan bubble type" stands up to any sort of logic. Neither of the two things you cite exclude one from being a metro-liberal ignorant twonk type. In your circumstance I don't believe you went to university (correct me if I'm wrong) so that would exclude you on the metro side. To like that post was to submit to being a person that chooses to ignore all evidence in favour of the world they've created that exists only in their bubble. Alty said nothing wrong yet he was attacked on various fronts by Ian and all his bubble comrades came to the like. Any member can "like what they want" but when you're liking a post that was for all intents & purposes just an attack to defame someone on the basis of not contriving to their bubble then that's pretty muggy. Ian seemingly made his original post up as he went along and his *methodology was more basic than Jonny T's eating habits. "Most Romanians are arrested on immigration offences and that's the only reason the statistics look bad" Who the fuck is this guy as Conor would say. Romanians have free movement, immigration offence what, "I'm an EU citizen bro!". What he states can be said of Moroc/Tunis Italian dwellers because they don't have free movement and there was a period when Romanians were arrested & expelled for having a criminal record because of the very thing Alty said, THERE WAS A WAVE OF SERIOUS CRIME sweeping areas that roma gypsies were residing in. So as I say, Ian (nothing against him, I come to the same conclusion as him on a range of subjects) said fuck all to disprove Alty or justify the scorn. Just made himself look a prat. The line "I'm sorry you're getting owned so hard here" is just as bad as it gets. It's telltale that he was playing up to something (in this case it was fellow bubble heads) but even worse it was to purposely flaunt what was essentially bully boy behaviour. Just poor form by all involved parties. Following the fool is no excuse and association is an unwritten law so to like that post also made you a bully on this occasion. You are what you consistently do so be careful to side with bullies too many rimes or else you'll become one.

I did go to university and calling me a bully because I liked a post that itself wasn't bullying is quite pathetic. As for Alty, he's an intelligent guy, but oh so fucking pompous sometimes. I suppose that's bullying too.

 

[Indian Dan]

Europe is fucked, big time. If I were younger I'd leg it as far away as possible. By the time I'm worm feed the EU will be no more (thank the fuck). If it wants saving in some way, it should revert back to what it was when we voted to go in in 71(?) - a Common Market. Not political integration, or a common currency that has condemned swathes of young people in southern Europe to a life of unemployment. It's all going to fall apart soon enough and the UK is ahead of the game. I voted out because I fervently believe in the UK as a soverign country. If the remoaners were honest, most of them voted to stay in, not because they agree with the European ideal, but because they feared coming out might cost them a few quid.

 

[Red]

In principle I like the EU, it helps to fund community projects that otherwise wouldn't be funded by sovereign governments and it has protected workers' rights too. In a lot of ways it is a force for good. However, it needs massive reform in terms of it not being democratic etc.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

The situation in Italy at the moment just highlights even more the point I've made before about the EU being unsustainable in it's current guise. It can only go one of two ways - integrate more and more, or fall apart. As the Euro problems again make for an interesting parallel and proxy for the EU problems as a whole.

The only way the Euro can survive long term is by complete centralisation of governance, policy making, tax and spend etc - full fiscal union. The ECB and others creating more money out of thin air to prop up the Italian banking system with bail outs may get it through the current crisis (and that's far from guaranteed right now), after the previous crisis's, but sooner or later it's going to add up. That even Germany's banks are now struggling to make the books balance tells you everything. The overhaul and complete centralisation, or break-up of the Euro cannot be avoided for ever. Take Greece, the can that Merkel has kicked down the road. That nasty timebomb needs revisiting sooner or later, especially the the gap between the pension demand of the population and it's actual pension pot grow ever wider with each passing year. What happens when it's Banks aren't able to pay everyone their pension this month? A debt haircut and more capitalisation making for many unhappy bankers and another Euro shock with inflation as a result is the only realistic solution. But Merkel doesn't want to go there just yet whilst things are so unstable elsewhere.

And the same sentiments and principles go for the EU as a whole. Again it's a divergence across the EU that causes the problems - that damn democracy getting in the way of the EU's glorious dreams. Of course the issue comes with whether the public support is there for full integration at this point - fair to say the project hasn't produced the stability and prosperity for all required to get everyone on board and forget about the lack of accountability or democracy. Portugal, Italy and Greece certainly aren't happy euro bunnies, not to mention the rise of the right in France.

Maybe it's all part of of some plan or at least a convenient turn of events - a period of economic chaos and misery that finally gets people on board with the complete integration project? Overriding the current wave of populism because the status quo isn't feasible and the alternative breakup would be too painful, the 'too big to fail' argument. Or maybe I'm being overly cynical. In any case, it's not something I want my country to have any part in, thanks very much.

 

[johnnytodd]

In principle I like the EU, it helps to fund community projects that otherwise wouldn't be funded by sovereign governments and it has protected workers' rights too. In a lot of ways it is a force for good. However, it needs massive reform in terms of it not being democratic etc.

cmon then what are all these community projects you in particular have benefited from and also these workers rights you have relied on??........cmon list them..............or have you just heard a politician say it on the telly?

 

[DarkSithLord]

Good piece here from the BBC on the possible break up of the EU - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38212049

 

[Aber gas]

I like this fella. A true believer.