Let's pretend we care: Div 4 Fixtures on Friday & 21st Nov

[shoddycollins]

We had 62% v Mansfield last week 22-7 on shots and still deservedly lost.

We do better when we have less possession.

Our average possession in the six league games we've won is 42%
Our average possession in the four league games we've lost is 55%
Our average possession in the two league games we've drawn is 44%

We've only had over 50% possession three times this season, and lost all three.

We've had below 40% possession on three occasions two and got two wins and a draw from those games.

This makes sense when you actually watch us as we look to get forward quickly and most of the time we get the ball, we take a shot on goal fairly soon after. In games where we've had more possession, the reason for that has been that we've not been able to find a way through the opponent's defence and end up hanging on to the ball for longer than we want to. If you looked at action areas though, we'd look a lot more dominant.

There's a statistician has made some passing maps for League Two, ours is interesting but I can't share it here since he has a patreon and you have to pay a pound a month to access these posts. You can check him our here:

https://www.patreon.com/differentgameanalytics/posts

Every single team in the division has either a map showing a lot of sideways passing and patient build-up play, or a map showing a very direct style of football with a lot of long passes fowards. Either way, the further forward you go, the less passing there is. Many teams who are struggling or in mid-table have very little passing into the box. Ours is different, the further forward you go the more passing there is, we're the only team with two routes into the box showing up strongly on the map, we win the ball a lot of the time in the opposition's half, while there is virtually no sideways passing at all in either defence or midfield. The defence are there to win the ball and get it to the midfielders, the midfielders are there to win the ball and get it to the forwards, the forwards are there to win the ball and score pass it to Jon Mellish. Simple but effective.

If we could sort out our wastefulness in front of goal (including creating better chances) then we could really fire ourselves into the automatic promotion chase. I'm crossing my fingers that each of Obiero, Reilly and Toure scoring in the pizza trophy will kick off a good spell of scoring for one or more of them. We need to make sure Kayode stays for the whole season too, he's such a massive part of why we're able to play the way we do. I feel that we'll definitely benefit from making five substitutions as it will enable to us maintain a high press longer into the game (which to be fair we're mostly doing anyway).

 

[Casey]

Shoddy, that link is for a patron page where you pay £25 a month to view the data.

I'm interested in the data but not £25 a month interested.

Casey

 

[Chris FGR]

Seems to be that if we (or a lot of teams I've seen) go in front the tactic seems to be to sit back, take less risks playing out and try and hit teams on the break. This means the losing side tend to have more of the ball.

 

[shoddycollins]

Shoddy, that link is for a patron page where you pay £25 a month to view the data.

I'm interested in the data but not £25 a month interested.

Casey

Only his detailed player by player datasheets are behind the £25/month paywall, which I presume he's targetting professional scouts and analysts with. His team by team analysis you only need to be paying £1/month to view.

 

[chipmunx]

We had 62% v Mansfield last week 22-7 on shots and still deservedly lost.

Saturday should be interesting - the 2 teams with the most passes per game in EFL 2 are Barrow and FGR.... not sure in which order though....

 

[masi51]

Saturday should be interesting - the 2 teams with the most passes per game in EFL 2 are Barrow and FGR.... not sure in which order though....

where did you get this stat ? Bolton are second to FGR at 352 passes per game........Dirty Barrow are top of the Bookings league

 

[shoddycollins]

We're training at Villa's training centre on the way down to Crawlee

 

[Greenacres]

shoddycollins Possession is over-rated, most of our games we average well over 50% but don't convert enough chances to win games convincingly...we can have a shot count of 27/2 and lose 2-1!

 

[Chris FGR]

shoddycollins Possession is over-rated, most of our games we average well over 50% but don't convert enough chances to win games convincingly...we can have a shot count of 27/2 and lose 2-1!

Yeah it's about being clinical, which we aren't.

That being said if you have more of the ball and a load more shots then the opppsition pretty much every game you'll win more then you lose.

 

[BlackHaddock]

Just read that our teams average age this season has been just over 24, with Scunny being the only team with a younger average. Our opponents on Saturday, Tranmere have an average of 29 apparently. Hope it's a heavy pitch in Birkenhead and they all tire!

 

[shoddycollins]

Yeah it's about being clinical, which we aren't.

That being said if you have more of the ball and a load more shots then the opppsition pretty much every game you'll win more then you lose.

Well it's not a much about who is in possession of a ball as where they are and where they're going. With a high-press you can push play back into the opposition half without taking possession at all.

 

[pontoonlew]

Owura Edwards being back for us is huge. We looked play-off level with him and conference north relegation zone without him.

 

[Conker]

Colchester tonight then, who are in good form but have the best home record in the league and worst away bizarrely, to be fair they’ve won 4 out of 5 and only lost to Newport away in that run, absolutely no idea what to expect mostly because I’m not sure what Mansfield are capable of under Clough yet.

Seems to be that if we (or a lot of teams I've seen) go in front the tactic seems to be to sit back, take less risks playing out and try and hit teams on the break. This means the losing side tend to have more of the ball.

That’s definitely what happened on Saturday, although to be fair to Mansfield we desperately needed that first league win. I’d like to think we would be a bit more adventurous from now on, although If Maynard goal was not wrongly disallowed the tactics worked perfectly.

 

[Chris FGR]

Well it's not a much about who is in possession of a ball as where they are and where they're going. With a high-press you can push play back into the opposition half without taking possession at all.

Teams only seem to high press us until they get in front, then it's a low block for the rest of the game. One or two, like Walsall have just sat deep all game waiting for us to make our customary fuck up.

Strangely the only team that pressed us well all game, stopped us playing out and actually had a lot more of the ball were Grimsby, who we beat without them having a decent shot on target.

Can't imagine teams actually want us having 20+ shots though whatever tactic they deploy.

 

[Robshep]

Just read that our teams average age this season has been just over 24, with Scunny being the only team with a younger average. Our opponents on Saturday, Tranmere have an average of 29 apparently. Hope it's a heavy pitch in Birkenhead and they all tire!

You might be disappointed about the pitch.

 

[Huntsman94]

Just read that our teams average age this season has been just over 24, with Scunny being the only team with a younger average. Our opponents on Saturday, Tranmere have an average of 29 apparently. Hope it's a heavy pitch in Birkenhead and they all tire!

New pitch was installed during the first lockdown and is up there as one of the best you can have. Next game plan?

 

[Robshep]

New pitch was installed during the first lockdown and is up there as one of the best you can have. Next game plan?

Peter Clarke and Joe Murphy being 38 and 39 doesn't help our average age that much either.

 

[masi51]

Peter Clarke and Joe Murphy being 38 and 39 doesn't help our average age that much either.

If your looking for a good young keeper i can point you to Billy the Fish. Hopefully will be available in January on loan from Fleetwood.

 

[BlackHaddock]

New pitch was installed during the first lockdown and is up there as one of the best you can have. Next game plan?

Well, our record against you was pretty good until the turn of this century; you've won more than us since then, but we are still in front with 29 wins compared to your 20. 16 have been drawn.

Odds of us losing is 45 to 20 or 2.25 to 1. Happy enough with that.

 

[Robshep]

If your looking for a good young keeper i can point you to Billy the Fish. Hopefully will be available in January on loan from Fleetwood.

Joe Murphy is better than any of your keepers. You can keep flappyboy.

 

[hellogregory]

I expect United to go to Crawley and win the game. But I worry that our bubble may have burst with last weeks defeat and we may come unstuck again. Kayode back from international duty will be a boost.

 

[hellogregory]

Have close to a full-strength squad to choose from this weekend with Toure back from suspension and Furman and Kayode back from international duty. Just Brennan Dickenson now unavailable. Crawley are a good side but hopefully we can get back to winning ways.

Ethan Walker still missing as well. He was starting to look really good before his injury in the pizza trophy. We’ll have a lot of options in wide areas once they are both back

 

[shoddycollins]

Ethan Walker still missing as well. He was starting to look really good before his injury in the pizza trophy. We’ll have a lot of options in wide areas once they are both back

yeah forgot about him... hope we can get him back. Also confirmed that Dickenson would have been doing full training already but had to self isolate.

 

[masi51]

Joe Murphy is better than any of your keepers. You can keep flappyboy.

I doubt he is as good as Gilks, and after that we only have 18 year old Matty Alexander......We certainly will be looking to bring another in

 

[Devon_Lad]

Christ. I've just realised the games start 7am local time. Will be at the bar with my city shirt on. Hoping and expecting a comfortable city win.

 

[masi51]

Christ. I've just realised the games start 7am local time. Will be at the bar with my city shirt on. Hoping and expecting a comfortable city win.

Full strip wanker !!

 

[Devon_Lad]

Full strip wanker !!

Do you have a life at all that doesn't revolve around acting like a twat on an internet forum? You were mildly entertaining at the beginning but you're sure as hell boring now.

 

[The Terminator]

Home game against Harrogate, both sides likely to finish similar to where they are now in the table.

Wonder if Embleton will revert back to 4-3-3 which brought us 10 points from 12 and narrow losses to FGR and Newport. Or will he stick to reverting us to 3-5-2 for last weeks loss to Colchester, where our back 3 really struggled all game.

It seemed a rather strange move as all the games we've lost this season have been quite tight and we'd only lost one league game recently as well. It was almost as if he did it trying to be too clever, to try and force in as many of our returning players from injury that he possibly could.

Combine the above with the fact we've lost 4 games in a row in all competitions, has led to our thick idiot brigade asking for him to be sacked - You know, those supporter types who are only happy when things go wrong so they can rub their ego and say they're always right - when things go wrong.

Embleton has the squad where its supposed to be which is midtable, Embleton himself doesn't have the nous or experience yet to get us higher and half of the squad we have is from the National League and won't go any higher.

 

[masi51]

Just looked at our game against Orient...Possession Bolton 56% Orient 44%
Shots Bolton 11 Orient 8.Corners Bolton 9 Orient 4....All that meant jack shit as it ended Orient 4 Bolton 0
Even allowing for Billy the fish gifting them two goals They fully deserved the win.
For some reason teams willing to sit back in this league are reaping the rewards.

 

[Conker]

drawing 1-1 against Colchester,

They deserved a equaliser but so disappointing it came from a poor goalkeeping mistake from Stech, I must admit his mistakes have been too common this season.