Race for the Play Offs

[Leewilson]

I'm off this week so little things like this keep me busy. Villa and Fulham look confirmed. There's a race behind them for the final two play off spots. It's just a bit of fun so feel free to disagree but no getting nasty.

5th) Derby - 65
Bolton (H)
Wolves (A)
Burton (A)
Boro (H)
Cardiff (H)
Villa (A)
Barnsley (H)
Initial verdict: Stinker of a run in against sides who all have something to play for. I think they might miss out.

6th) Middlesbrough - 63
Forest (H)
Sheffield Utd (A)
Bristol C (H)
Derby (A)
Millwall (H)
Ipswich (A)
Initial verdict: Having Pulis at the helm is a big advantage. Some huge games there against fellow chasers will decide their fate. Might just squeeze in.

7th) Bristol City - 62
Millwall (A)
Birmingham (H)
Boro (A)
Hull (H)
Forest (A)
Sheffield Utd (H)
Initial verdict: Momentum from earlier in the season has gone. Some tough looking away games in there. I think they'll fade to 9th/10th.

8th) Millwall - 62
Bristol City (H)
Bolton (A)
Sheff Utd (A)
Fulham (H)
Boro (A)
Villa (H)
Initial verdict: Tough looking run in. Come into form at the right time though. I think they may just miss out.

9th) Sheffield Utd - 62
Barnsley (A)
Middlesbrough (H)
Millwall (H)
Birmingham (A)
Preston (H)
Bristol City (A)
Initial verdict: Crucially have most of the big games against other hopefuls at home. Still ticking along although drawing a few too many. I think they'll be either 6th or 7th. Maybe just falling short.

10th) Preston - 60
Reading (A)
Leeds (H)
QPR (A)
Norwich (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Burton (H)
Initial verdict - On paper, one of the kindest run ins. Blown the last 2 games though which could have seen them in a play off spot. On the fence with this one as they'll need a run to have a chance. I'll take a punt and say I think they'll get in the top 6.

11th) Brentford - 58
Ipswich (H)
Forest (A)
Fulham (A)
QPR (H)
Barnsley (A)
Hull (H)
Initial verdict: Not a bad run in on paper. Kept their hopes alive with a win over Bristol City. Will have to go on a run to get in as they'll 5 points and teams behind 6th. I think it's just a bit much to make up.

I'll try and update after each set of fixtures.

Initial table prediction

5th) Middlesbrough
6th) Preston
7th) Sheff Utd
8th) Derby
9th) Millwall
10th) Brentford
11th) Bristol City

 

[SF_]

We will clearly finish 11th.

 

[QPR_Matt]

Most of those run ins look hard in fairness. Which means it will be the direct games that will come into it and I think Pulis is the right man for those sorts of games.

I still think Derby have enough to get the points needed to keep their spot in the play offs. Couple of home games, then away games against teams that might have already checked out for the season should see them through.

 

[HertsWolf]

We could still be in this race.

Out of interest, why do Derby have this massive annual - and usually successful - struggle to avoid promotion?

Oh, and there's nothing that would make me happier than to see Millwall go up.

 

[HarvSFC]

We could still be in this race.

Out of interest, why do Derby have this massive annual - and usually successful - struggle to avoid promotion?

Oh, and there's nothing that would make me happier than to see Millwall go up.

After what happened last time they went up, Derby have agreed it is best to stay in the Championship forever.

 

[TomPNE94]

11th is our home and we won't give it up without a fight

 

[Luke_1884]

We could still be in this race.

Out of interest, why do Derby have this massive annual - and usually successful - struggle to avoid promotion?

No explaining it. We've not even played that badly this time yet went 9 without a win, just way too many draws when we've deserved more. Can't believe we're still 5th, 3 wins since the turn of the year.

There's better teams in the PO so even if we do make it I don't hold much hope.

 

[Rammy]

Other than the Sunderland game, Luke. That was fucking dire.

I don't think we'll make the playoffs. It's too tough a set of fixtures IMO. Besides, like you say it'd be pointless even if we did make it, and a complete waste of money.

 

[Ale18]

I think they will be... Derby County and Millwall

Derby because it has more points than everyone and in a balanced challenge this will be important

Millwall because in the last 3 months it is the best performing team of all

 

[Abertawe]

we don't want fulham in the play-offs - if their remaining opponents could take it easy against them that would be appreciated

 

[Leewilson]

Update.

5th) Derby - 68
Bolton (H) WON
Wolves (A)
Burton (A)
Boro (H)
Cardiff (H)
Villa (A)
Barnsley (H)
Initial verdict: Stinker of a run in against sides who all have something to play for. I think they might miss out.
Update 1: Important win. Will come under pressure still during the run in. Still think they could miss out.

6th) Middlesbrough - 66
Forest (H) WON
Sheffield Utd (A)
Bristol C (H)
Derby (A)
Millwall (H)
Ipswich (A)
Initial verdict: Having Pulis at the helm is a big advantage. Some huge games there against fellow chasers will decide their fate. Might just squeeze in.
Update: Massive games to come. Think they’ll do enough.

7th) Millwall - 65
Bristol City (H) WON
Bolton (A)
Sheff Utd (A)
Fulham (H)
Boro (A)
Villa (H)
Initial verdict: Tough looking run in. Come into form at the right time though. I think they may just miss out.
Update: Flying. Can they keep winning? Still going for 7th/8th.

8th) Bristol City - 62
Millwall (A) LOSE
Birmingham (H)
Boro (A)
Hull (H)
Forest (A)
Sheffield Utd (H)
Initial verdict: Momentum from earlier in the season has gone. Some tough looking away games in there. I think they'll fade to 9th/10th.
Update: Still fancying then to fade out of contention.

9th) Sheffield Utd - 62
Barnsley (A) LOSE
Middlesbrough (H)
Millwall (H)
Birmingham (A)
Preston (H)
Bristol City (A)
Initial verdict: Crucially have most of the big games against other hopefuls at home. Still ticking along although drawing a few too many. I think they'll be either 6th or 7th. Maybe just falling short.
Update: Must get at least 4 from the next 2 or I think they’re out of it.

10th) Brentford - 61
Ipswich (H) WON
Forest (A)
Fulham (A)
QPR (H)
Barnsley (A)
Hull (H)
Initial verdict: Not a bad run in on paper. Kept their hopes alive with a win over Bristol City. Will have to go on a run to get in as they'll 5 points and teams behind 6th. I think it's just a bit much to make up.
Update: Going we’ll but still thinking they’ve left it too late. If they beat Fulham, I’ll reassess.

11th) Preston - 60
Reading (A) LOSE
Leeds (H)
QPR (A)
Norwich (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Burton (H)
Initial verdict - On paper, one of the kindest run ins. Blown the last 2 games though which could have seen them in a play off spot. On the fence with this one as they'll need a run to have a chance. I'll take a punt and say I think they'll get in the top 6.
Update: Some kind games to come but going by fan reaction, maybe 10th/11th is a more sensible guess.

Update 1 table prediction

5th) Middlesbrough
6th) Derby
7th) Millwall
8th) Sheff Utd
9th) Preston
10th) Brentford
11th) Bristol City

 

[villa loyal]

Derby will make the play offs, and I think that's who we will play. Bristol City, and Sheff Utd have a lot of work to do now. Middlesbrough will just pip Millwall, but I hope Millwall make it.

 

[Luke_ciderhead]

We haven't had a shot on target in 180 minutes of football. I think we'll struggle to even finish 11th at this rate. Someone like Norwich or Leeds will probably overtake us if they have a good run because I can't see us getting any more than about 4 points.

I know we weren't fancied to be up there anyway, but to drop from 2nd at Christmas to mid table nothingness is a disgrace.

Wolves
Fulham
Cardiff
Villa
Middlesbrough
Derby
Millwall
Brentford
Sheff Utd
Preston
Norwich
Us

 

[toshj]

We're struggling to score goals at the moment, so despite our run-in being the most attractive on paper, I wouldn't have thought that we stood much of a chance. I think the winner of the Boro v Millwall game will ultimately take that 6th spot.

 

[Doriva17]

Update.

5th) Derby - 68
Bolton (H) WON
Wolves (A) - L
Burton (A) - W
Boro (H) - D
Cardiff (H) - L
Villa (A) - L
Barnsley (H) - W

TOTAL 75


6th) Middlesbrough - 66
Forest (H) WON
Sheffield Utd (A) - L
Bristol C (H) - W
Derby (A) - D
Millwall (H) - D
Ipswich (A) - W

TOTAL 74

7th) Millwall - 65
Bristol City (H) WON
Bolton (A) - W
Sheff Utd (A) - D
Fulham (H) - D
Boro (A) - D
Villa (H) - W

TOTAL 74



8th) Bristol City - 62
Millwall (A) LOSE
Birmingham (H) - W
Boro (A) - L
Hull (H) - W
Forest (A) - W
Sheffield Utd (H) - L

TOTAL 71

9th) Sheffield Utd - 62
Barnsley (A) LOSE
Middlesbrough (H) - W
Millwall (H) - D
Birmingham (A) - D
Preston (H) - W
Bristol City (A) - W

TOTAL 73

10th) Brentford - 61
Ipswich (H) WON
Forest (A) - D
Fulham (A) - L
QPR (H) - W
Barnsley (A) - W
Hull (H) - W

TOTAL 71

11th) Preston - 60
Reading (A) LOSE
Leeds (H) - W
QPR (A) - D
Norwich (H) - W
Sheff Utd (A) - W
Burton (H) - W

TOTAL 73

 

[Jockney]

Not a bad call. I think that's the most probable outcome I've seen.

 

[TomPNE94]

except you’ve got both us and Sheff Utd winning the same match...

 

[villa loyal]

except you’ve got both us and Sheff Utd winning the same match...

Anything is possible in football.

 

[Doriva17]

except you’ve got both us and Sheff Utd winning the same match...

Oops! Must have had to take a call at work and stopped paying attention

Sheff Utd to win is my final answer

 

[TomPNE94]

Oops! Must have had to take a call at work and stopped paying attention

Sheff Utd to win is my final answer

Bastard

 

[Leewilson]

Update 2

5th) Derby - 68
Bolton (H) WON
Wolves (A) LOST
Burton (A)
Boro (H)
Cardiff (H)
Villa (A)
Barnsley (H)
Initial verdict: Stinker of a run in against sides who all have something to play for. I think they might miss out.
Update 1: Important win. Will come under pressure still during the run in. Still think they could miss out.
Update 2: Night off although will get beaten by Wolves tomorrow (humble pie at the ready). Still in their hands but can they handle the pressure?

6th) Millwall - 68
Bristol City (H) WON
Bolton (A) WON
Sheff Utd (A)
Fulham (H)
Boro (A)
Villa (H)
Initial verdict: Tough looking run in. Come into form at the right time though. I think they may just miss out.
Update: Flying. Can they keep winning? Still going for 7th/8th.
Update 2: Yes they can. 4 tough games to come but why not. They have the momentum!

7th) Middlesbrough - 66
Forest (H) WON
Sheffield Utd (A) LOST
Bristol C (H)
Derby (A)
Millwall (H)
Ipswich (A)
Initial verdict: Having Pulis at the helm is a big advantage. Some huge games there against fellow chasers will decide their fate. Might just squeeze in.
Update: Massive games to come. Think they’ll do enough.
Update 2: Big chance to put distance between themselves and the chasing pack but been dragged right back into the mix now. I think they'll bounce back though.

8th) Bristol City - 65
Millwall (A) LOSE
Birmingham (H) WON
Boro (A)
Hull (H)
Forest (A)
Sheffield Utd (H)
Initial verdict: Momentum from earlier in the season has gone. Some tough looking away games in there. I think they'll fade to 9th/10th.
Update: Still fancying then to fade out of contention.
Update 2: Probably their easiest game on paper but they won it and they're still in touch. Need something against Boro next game or else they'll fade away.

9th) Sheffield Utd - 65
Barnsley (A) LOSE
Middlesbrough (H) WON
Millwall (H)
Birmingham (A)
Preston (H)
Bristol City (A)
Initial verdict: Crucially have most of the big games against other hopefuls at home. Still ticking along although drawing a few too many. I think they'll be either 6th or 7th. Maybe just falling short.
Update: Must get at least 4 from the next 2 or I think they’re out of it.
Update 2: Huge win followed by an even bigger next match. Beat Millwall and they'll be right back in it. Going to be a close end for them I think.

10th) Brentford - 64
Ipswich (H) WON
Forest (A) WON
Fulham (A)
QPR (H)
Barnsley (A)
Hull (H)
Initial verdict: Not a bad run in on paper. Kept their hopes alive with a win over Bristol City. Will have to go on a run to get in as they'll 5 points and teams behind 6th. I think it's just a bit much to make up.
Update: Going we’ll but still thinking they’ve left it too late. If they beat Fulham, I’ll reassess.
Update 2: Millwall's run has overshadowed them but they keep on winning. It's still all on that Fulham game though.

11th) Preston - 63
Reading (A) LOSE
Leeds (H) WON
QPR (A)
Norwich (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Burton (H)
Initial verdict: On paper, one of the kindest run ins. Blown the last 2 games though which could have seen them in a play off spot. On the fence with this one as they'll need a run to have a chance. I'll take a punt and say I think they'll get in the top 6.
Update: Some kind games to come but going by fan reaction, maybe 10th/11th is a more sensible guess.
Update 2: Stopped the rot although I think 5 points and 5 teams adrift may be too much now. Need to win every game and see what happens

Update 2 table prediction

5th) Derby
6th) Middlesbrough
-------------------------------
7th) Millwall
8th) Sheff Utd
9th) Brentwood
10th) Preston
11th) Bristol City

 

[Abertawe]

i'm just glad it isn't preston, brizzle or blades - such nothing clubs would look crap up here in the PL

 

[TTOCS]

Derby have probably done enough as I see 2 wins against Burton and Barnsley to get at least 74 points.
Millwall 5 points from a tough run in 73 points
Boro another hard run 7 points for 73
Brentford will come flying through for 73 points
As will Preston if they get something at Bramall Lane 73 points
City, if they beat Sheff Utd on the last day for 73 points
Sheff Utd, if they instead beat City on the last day for 73 points.

5 teams on 73 points, guaranteed.

 

[Doriva17]

Whilst entirely predictable it doesn't get any less annoying how terrible we are. The main thing we had to do tonight was not concede early so what do we do. Then for the captain to get 2 yellows after 20 minutes need to beat Bristol city on saturday

 

[Rammy]

Derby have probably done enough as I see 2 wins against Burton and Barnsley to get at least 74 points.
Millwall 5 points from a tough run in 73 points
Boro another hard run 7 points for 73
Brentford will come flying through for 73 points
As will Preston if they get something at Bramall Lane 73 points
City, if they beat Sheff Utd on the last day for 73 points
Sheff Utd, if they instead beat City on the last day for 73 points.

5 teams on 73 points, guaranteed.

Do you not recall us for each of the past 4 seasons? If we have that kind of pressure on the final day, we will crumble spectacularly against Barnsley, even if they’re already down/safe!

 

[Leewilson]

Update 3

5th) Middlesbrough - 69
Forest (H) WON
Sheffield Utd (A) LOST
Bristol C (H) WON
Derby (A)
Millwall (H)
Ipswich (A)
Initial verdict: Having Pulis at the helm is a big advantage. Some huge games there against fellow chasers will decide their fate. Might just squeeze in.
Update: Massive games to come. Think they’ll do enough.
Update 2: Big chance to put distance between themselves and the chasing pack but been dragged right back into the mix now. I think they'll bounce back though.
Update 3: Very important to bounce back today. Next 2 games against the teams they're in direct competition with. 1 win at least will give them a shot on the final day.

6th) Millwall - 69
Bristol City (H) WON
Bolton (A) WON
Sheff Utd (A) DREW
Fulham (H)
Boro (A)
Villa (H)
Initial verdict: Tough looking run in. Come into form at the right time though. I think they may just miss out.
Update: Flying. Can they keep winning? Still going for 7th/8th.
Update 2: Yes they can. 4 tough games to come but why not. They have the momentum!
Update 3: Excellent draw today. They have momentum going into the Fulham match, especially since Brentford could have knocked their spirit. Last 3 games as big a test as they'll have though.

7th) Derby - 68
Bolton (H) WON
Wolves (A) LOST
Burton (A) LOST
Boro (H)
Cardiff (H)
Villa (A)
Barnsley (H)
Initial verdict: Stinker of a run in against sides who all have something to play for. I think they might miss out.
Update 1: Important win. Will come under pressure still during the run in. Still think they could miss out.
Update 2: Night off although will get beaten by Wolves tomorrow (humble pie at the ready). Still in their hands but can they handle the pressure?
Update 3: No humble pie and a big bottle job today. One saving grace is Boro and Millwall play each other but there's a big chasing pack behind ready to take advantage. I think they're in big trouble now. Have to beat Boro or else I think they're done.

8th) Preston - 66
Reading (A) LOSE
Leeds (H) WON
QPR (A) WON
Norwich (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Burton (H)
Initial verdict: On paper, one of the kindest run ins. Blown the last 2 games though which could have seen them in a play off spot. On the fence with this one as they'll need a run to have a chance. I'll take a punt and say I think they'll get in the top 6.
Update: Some kind games to come but going by fan reaction, maybe 10th/11th is a more sensible guess.
Update 2: Stopped the rot although I think 5 points and 5 teams adrift may be too much now. Need to win every game and see what happens
Update 3: On a day of draws, took advantage of their kinder looking run in to close the gap. Sheffield Utd will be their key game. No reason they can't win the two home games. Can't afford a loss to Sheff Utd. Maybe wrote them off to early.

9th) Sheffield Utd - 66
Barnsley (A) LOSE
Middlesbrough (H) WON
Millwall (H) DREW
Birmingham (A)
Preston (H)
Bristol City (A)
Initial verdict: Crucially have most of the big games against other hopefuls at home. Still ticking along although drawing a few too many. I think they'll be either 6th or 7th. Maybe just falling short.
Update: Must get at least 4 from the next 2 or I think they’re out of it.
Update 2: Huge win followed by an even bigger next match. Beat Millwall and they'll be right back in it. Going to be a close end for them I think.
Update 3: A solid draw but a win would have put them right in contention. As it is, they ideally need to take at least 7 from their last 3 to have any realistic chance. May be a bit too much now.

10th) Brentford - 65
Ipswich (H) WON
Forest (A) WON
Fulham (A) DREW
QPR (H)
Barnsley (A)
Hull (H)
Initial verdict: Not a bad run in on paper. Kept their hopes alive with a win over Bristol City. Will have to go on a run to get in as they'll 5 points and teams behind 6th. I think it's just a bit much to make up.
Update: Going we’ll but still thinking they’ve left it too late. If they beat Fulham, I’ll reassess.
Update 2: Millwall's run has overshadowed them but they keep on winning. It's still all on that Fulham game though.
Update 3: That point against Fulham could be the point that gets Brentford in the play offs. A kind run in by comparison to some of their rivals who mostly dropped points today. Could be a final day gatecrash?

11th) Bristol City - 65
Millwall (A) LOSE
Birmingham (H) WON
Boro (A) LOSE
Hull (H)
Forest (A)
Sheffield Utd (H)
Initial verdict: Momentum from earlier in the season has gone. Some tough looking away games in there. I think they'll fade to 9th/10th.
Update: Still fancying then to fade out of contention.
Update 2: Probably their easiest game on paper but they won it and they're still in touch. Need something against Boro next game or else they'll fade away.
Update 3: I think they're out of it now. Indifferent form and needing to win all their last 3.

Update 3 table prediction

5th) Middlesbrough
6th) Millwall
-------------------------------
7th) Brentford
8th) Derby
9th) Sheff Utd
10th) Preston
11th) Bristol City

 

[TomPNE94]

Fucking going up lads

 

[blademan89]

Fucking going up lads

Win your next 2 then lose to Burton to miss out. Just imagine

 

[mossypne]

Missing out on GD would be the real downer.

 

[blademan89]

Missing out on GD would be the real downer.

It's gonna happen to someone