Relegation Dogfight Thread

[kieran_vale]

Overall it’s been a decent day for us gaining a point and Cheltenham and Burton losing. Would nominally include Cambridge in the conversation but if they end up going down from here then there’s a lot that would have to have gone wrong for them.

I think most of it hinges on Cheltenhams next three games - Carlisle, Rovers and Burton. If they don’t get max points from them games I think that might be a nail in their coffin. Burton look like they’re going to live to regret their managerial decision more than anything. For us basically win our three remaining home games and that should just about save us one would think.

 

[Si Robin]

We simply have to win two of the next three and those two have to be the Carlisle and Burton games (I'll take a draw against Rovers).

We seem to have an inability to get out of the relegation zone though.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Overall it’s been a decent day for us gaining a point and Cheltenham and Burton losing. Would nominally include Cambridge in the conversation but if they end up going down from here then there’s a lot that would have to have gone wrong for them.

I think most of it hinges on Cheltenhams next three games - Carlisle, Rovers and Burton. If they don’t get max points from them games I think that might be a nail in their coffin. Burton look like they’re going to live to regret their managerial decision more than anything. For us basically win our three remaining home games and that should just about save us one would think.

Cheltenham have to play us next Sat and we have the worst form in the league bar Burton

 

[EricSabin]

Carlisle looked really poor today, shame as they still travelled in decent numbers and were good to chat to in the pub before the match

 

[kieran_vale]

Burton you think have got one nuclear option and that’s sack Patterson. It’s clear he’s out of his depth and see if anyone else can drag something out of the players in the remaining fixtures.

Sorry for Carlisle but guess it’s one of them they’ve probably been conditioned to it since January. Stick with Simpson he has a good track record of promotions from L2 so all not lost.

 

[Grumpy Grecian]

Can we finally be excused please sir?

 

[leedsvaliant]

I think Cheltenham will beat Carlisle and we'll lose to Peterborough. I think 47 might be enough, considering the relative form of those down there. So, there's basically a lot riding on Cheltenham v Burton. If we could nab a point from one of our two away games it would be like a win. 3 points on Wednesday would be huge but can't see it. We always roll over for Posh.

 

[thewwfc]

A relegation obsessive on our forum is still tracking our # of points to safety…which is pretty crazy at this stage in the game, but the table it provides is still useful in the context of seeing which teams can still get x amount of points.

So our points total is our current one (so ignore that).

The second column is games remaining, third is max points (other than us).

So yeah, not looking great for Burton.

 

[Si Robin]

Not wishing to discount Vale, because that would be mad, but it really does feel like our game with Burton is the relegation decider.

I mean it could just be who comes 21st or 22nd, but it's an absolutely massive game.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Not wishing to discount Vale, because that would be mad, but it really does feel like our game with Burton is the relegation decider.

I mean it could just be who comes 21st or 22nd, but it's an absolutely massive game.

Yep. Feels like a biggy. I think you'll beat Burton, they're absolutely shite. We have 3 of the last 4 at home against teams with nothing to play for....I think that will seal our fate either way.

 

[Grumpy Grecian]

Yep. Feels like a biggy. I think you'll beat Burton, they're absolutely shite. We have 3 of the last 4 at home against teams with nothing to play for....I think that will seal our fate either way.

Not quite. Have you forgotten already how you "robbed" us of the L2 title a couple seasons back?
(Although, thinking about it, after what has happened to the Vegans since, perhaps we DO owe you a favour)

 

[dwightyorke]

I can't see vale staying up as they have both Peterborough and Bolton away which are defeats. They have 3 winnable home games but Exeter are playing well at the minute so will be a hard match, Wycombe have improved so again tough match and Cambridge may need the points to avoid going down in that last game. Can't see vale getting anymore than 6 points. I think it will be Cheltenham that stay up and carlise, Fleetwood, Burton and vale that go down

 

[Floreat Salopia]

I can't see vale staying up as they have both Peterborough and Bolton away which are defeats. They have 3 winnable home games but Exeter are playing well at the minute so will be a hard match, Wycombe have improved so again tough match and Cambridge may need the points to avoid going down in that last game. Can't see vale getting anymore than 6 points. I think it will be Cheltenham that stay up and carlise, Fleetwood, Burton and vale that go down

I think Burton are gone unless they sack Paterson. Why they appointed somebody so inexperienced in the first place when fighting at the wrong end was moronic from their owner.

Straight shoot out between Cheltenham and Vale to stay up. The next 10 days could well decide it. Cheltenham have three winnable fixtures (Carlisle, Bristol Rovers, Burton), whereas Vale have Peterborough away (will lose that), then a very winnable game in Exeter at home.

If Vale come out of the next ten days being no more than three points behind Cheltenham, then I reckon Vale will stay up. Cheltenham must get 7 points at the very least from their next three as their last three fixtures are suicide and will send them down. All the pressure will be on Cheltenham in the next ten days imo.

 

[kieran_vale]

I think Burton are gone unless they sack Paterson. Why they appointed somebody so inexperienced in the first place when fighting at the wrong end was moronic from their owner.

Straight shoot out between Cheltenham and Vale to stay up. The next 10 days could well decide it. Cheltenham have three winnable fixtures (Carlisle, Bristol Rovers, Burton), whereas Vale have Peterborough away (will lose that), then a very winnable game in Exeter at home.

If Vale come out of the next ten days being no more than three points behind Cheltenham, then I reckon Vale will stay up. Cheltenham must get 7 points at the very least from their next three as their last three fixtures are suicide and will send them down. All the pressure will be on Cheltenham in the next ten days imo.

Aye, player for player you could argue Burton maybe have the more talented squad but Paterson has been a shocker of an appointment. Did see a clip on Twitter where he criticised the home fans and the atmosphere, that never ends well for any manager going down that road. That’s an area where I’ll credit Darren Moore, since being at Vale he goes out of his way to credit the fans even where I think we’ve been poor for atmosphere like at Northampton.

Strange how things work out that the likely result is one of us or DC will possibly stay up at the expense of the other.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I think Burton are gone unless they sack Paterson. Why they appointed somebody so inexperienced in the first place when fighting at the wrong end was moronic from their owner.

Straight shoot out between Cheltenham and Vale to stay up. The next 10 days could well decide it. Cheltenham have three winnable fixtures (Carlisle, Bristol Rovers, Burton), whereas Vale have Peterborough away (will lose that), then a very winnable game in Exeter at home.

If Vale come out of the next ten days being no more than three points behind Cheltenham, then I reckon Vale will stay up. Cheltenham must get 7 points at the very least from their next three as their last three fixtures are suicide and will send them down. All the pressure will be on Cheltenham in the next ten days imo.

That's how I see it to be honest. Lose the next 2 and we're screwed in my opinion.

 

[Carver]

Don't worry about playing us Cheltenham as our team is suffering from many injuries and we're just so poor so you should expect to get 3 points on Tuesday night.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

1 confirmed as relegated, 3 spots remain...have discounted Reading, just can't see it, especially with GD advantage...

Shrewsbury - Played 42, Points 46, GD -28
Wycombe (H)
Bolton (A)
Charlton (A)
Leyton Orient (H)

Cambridge - Played 41, Points 45, GD -20
Charlton (H)
Bristol Rovers (A)
Derby (H)
Wycombe (H)
Port Vale (A)

Port Vale - Played 41, Points 40, GD -25
Peterborough (A)
Exeter (H)
Wycombe (H)
Bolton (A)
Cambridge (H)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Burton - Played 42, Points 40, GD -26
Stevenage (A)
Cheltenham (H)
Reading (H)
Fleetwood (A)

Cheltenham - Played 40, Points 38, GD -22
Carlisle (H)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Burton (A)
Lincoln (H)
Peterborough (H)
Stevenage (A)

Fleetwood - Played 41, Points 34, GD -25
Blackpool (A)
Northampton (H)
Peterborough (A)
Leyton Orient (A)
Burton (H)

PPG [Season, Last 10]
Shrewsbury [1.095, 1.1]
Cambridge [1.097, 0.7]
Port Vale [1.025, 0.9]
Burton [0.952, 0.2]
Cheltenham [0.95, 0.9]
Fleetwood [0.829, 0.9]

No-one is doing anything, Fleetwood, Cheltenham, Port Vale & Shrewsbury all remaining around same points return recently compared to season as a whole, Cambridge slightly under, and Burton dreadful.

Shrewsbury & Cambridge already got a bit of a buffer so will take something drastic despite tough games. Alongside Carlisle, it's looking ominous for Fleetwood and Burton (although 3 of 4 remaining games are with teams around them), and then it's one from Port Vale or Cheltenham.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I can't see vale staying up as they have both Peterborough and Bolton away which are defeats. They have 3 winnable home games but Exeter are playing well at the minute so will be a hard match, Wycombe have improved so again tough match and Cambridge may need the points to avoid going down in that last game. Can't see vale getting anymore than 6 points. I think it will be Cheltenham that stay up and carlise, Fleetwood, Burton and vale that go down

Sadly, I think you're right. If we're within 3 points of Cheltenham before their last 3 games, then we have a chance. We're placing too much emphasis on our home games....we've only won one this year.

For me, we need to get maximum points out of Posh or Bolton.

Posh could be winding down after the cup final and preparing for the playoffs and hopefully Bolton could be out of the running for the autos by then. I just can't see either letting us have 3 points.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Sadly, I think you're right. If we're within 3 points of Cheltenham before their last 3 games, then we have a chance. We're placing too much emphasis on our home games....we've only won one this year.

For me, we need to get maximum points out of Posh or Bolton.

Posh could be winding down after the cup final and preparing for the playoffs and hopefully Bolton could be out of the running for the autos by then. I just can't see either letting us have 3 points.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Hang on, I thought Vale had already been relegated....

 

[EricSabin]

Hang on, I thought Vale had already been relegated....

They have hence why no one is bothering with their away games

 

[AmberRich]

Would nominally include Cambridge in the conversation but if they end up going down from here then there’s a lot that would have to have gone wrong for them.

A good easter weekend doesn't quite mean we are safe. It's in our hands and we have 3 home games left, but we play a Charlton team undefeated in 11 and promotion chasing Derby. Unless we get something out of those, there's a lot on the Wycombe and Bristol Rovers games to avoid taking it to the last day for a relegation classic away at Vale. If we aren't mathematically safe by then it'll be an incredibly nervey day.

Our back line has potentially gone from an incredibly experienced yet aging one to a youthful and inexperienced one in a matter of games, as Morrison has been out injured and Ryan Bennett came off at half time yesterday. After last season I wouldn't discount anything, ridiculous and silly things tend to happen towards the end of seasons.

 

[folletto]

A good easter weekend doesn't quite mean we are safe. It's in our hands and we have 3 home games left, but we play a Charlton team undefeated in 11 and promotion chasing Derby. Unless we get something out of those, there's a lot on the Wycombe and Bristol Rovers games to avoid taking it to the last day for a relegation classic away at Vale. If we aren't mathematically safe by then it'll be an incredibly nervey day.

Our back line has potentially gone from an incredibly experienced yet aging one to a youthful and inexperienced one in a matter of games, as Morrison has been out injured and Ryan Bennett came off at half time yesterday. After last season I wouldn't discount anything, ridiculous and silly things tend to happen towards the end of seasons.

Wouldn't worry. Lyle Taylor is bound to score a hattrick against us

 

[valefan16]

They have hence why no one is bothering with their away games

Took 1400 at the weekend?

 

[LordJord]

I was shocked by how bad Burton were when we went to there place a fair few weeks ago. I think they had only recently appointed Paterson at that point but it was incredible how poor they looked. Their pitch was dreadful as well but they were just absolute hoofing it aimlessly with no real purpose. Dont know how you can have a go at the fans either if you are the manager there, its a small club at L2 level let alone in L1, you cant be expected the fanbase to be like Fenerbache etc. I think its between Vale and Cheltenham for the last spot.

 

[Arbury]

Wouldn't worry. Lyle Taylor is bound to score a hattrick against us

He won’t as he’s injured, gassan might though!!

KTF.

 

[valefan16]

Been away so not been on much but im slightly annoyed as I had accepted the relegation and was rather chilled about it, now we've got our act together in recent games and the hope is back with the big carrot dangling!

Still a lot of work to be done, but 4 clean sheets in 6 now show we've tightened up at the back lately and seem more arsed than we had.

Cheltenham have three very winnable games now though, but are in poor form so we will probably know more in 8 days time, if a week on Tuesday at 10pm we are still out of it or within a point or two then we'd have a good chance.

The two away games are horrible but the three at home are winnable against sides either with nothing to play and around us.

Burton people suggest are done but they have Cheltenham and Fleetwood so again from their perspective winnable games, probably need 46-47 points depending on how Cheltenham fair this coming week.

 

[folletto]

He won’t as he’s injured, gassan might though!!

KTF.

Is Bonne injured or likely to feature at all? It's a shame Taylor is injured, would have got the reception from our fans he deserves. That being said though, he's the type of player to use that abuse as fuel.

I don't think I've ever actually disliked one of our players for leaving bar Taylor. Got us relegated purely for his own self interest

 

[Arbury]

Is Bonne injured or likely to feature at all? It's a shame Taylor is injured, would have got the reception from our fans he deserves. That being said though, he's the type of player to use that abuse as fuel.

I don't think I've ever actually disliked one of our players for leaving bar Taylor. Got us relegated purely for his own self interest

Only off the bench, bonne has hardly featured at all really, comes on for the last 10, runs around a bit, generally does very little and wastes an opportunity if he gets one.

I’m sure Taylor would love this game as he’d certainly use the abuse to up his game and on his day he’s a match winner but I just can’t stand him, he’s so self indulgent I don’t think he’d understand the meaning of the word team if he was on the pitch by himself!

As for the game, I personally think it’s about bloody time we beat you but with may up top(who always seems to score against us) I’m struggling to see it, we’ve improved a lot recently as have yourselves but I just think you’ll have to much, would take a draw although the 3pts is very needed, will jones be playing? will get a cracking reception from us lot, top player.

KTF.

 

[denzel ecfc]

The two away games are horrible but the three at home are winnable against sides either with nothing to play and around us.

Nothing to play for except to avenge you Denying us the title two seasons ago..some of us never forget