Relegation Dogfight Thread

[BRFC_Gas]

Fair point, but after losing to Fleetwood and Burton at home deservedly it’s hard to see where the next win comes from

Stevenage could run riot tomorrow with their style of play, exactly what we struggle against

Agree with this, we seem to have got worse wince the window closed. Doesnt help when you sell Collins and dont replace him, and we needed a striker before he went!
Those 8-10 points seem a long way off

 

[folletto]

It wouldn't be a massive shock either these days, Bolton, his own Portsmouth. Plymouth have been there a couple of times.

Now you have a lot of clubs who are smaller historically who are at the top table, like your Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth's, and sides that often struggled in the lower realms like your Fulham, Swansea and Hull a lot of the more traditional high flyers will get pushed down to make room, especially if they've had a few bad years in terms of how they've been run.

We definitely wouldn't be the biggest club to have been in League 2 in recent years but it would definitely be a shock. Bolton, Pompey, Cov all went down due to disastrous off the field issues. I'm one of the least optimistic Charlton fans and I thought we'd come around 8th this season. We were really poor last season and came 10th and I felt we'd recruited well enough in the summer under the new owners to do better but not make up the gap to the top 6.

For us to be fluttering round the bottom 4, with the worst form of those battling it out 30 odd games into the season is pretty mental.

 

[valefan16]

We definitely wouldn't be the biggest club to have been in League 2 in recent years but it would definitely be a shock. Bolton, Pompey, Cov all went down due to disastrous off the field issues. I'm one of the least optimistic Charlton fans and I thought we'd come around 8th this season. We were really poor last season and came 10th and I felt we'd recruited well enough in the summer under the new owners to do better but not make up the gap to the top 6.

For us to be fluttering round the bottom 4, with the worst form of those battling it out 30 odd games into the season is pretty mental.

I didnt mean Charlton specifically this season but more in terms of a club the size of Charlton, with the players you have you should be doing better, all be it in January from the outside you seemed so focused on strikers but seemed to have a really poor back line (has to be if we can create nearly 30 shots against it!).

That said I would caution the new better owners thing, as from experience we have one of the best there is in Carol in terms of her intentions for the club etc but we are probably still hamstrung 5 years on by previous ownership, they've had to spend around £10 million which is massive money compared to what we've seen in the past but large sums of that has gone on repairing that. The Pitch, the stadium, the structure, the youth set up all needed investment which has limited the pitch investment more.

In their second season despite being one of the bookies favourites we looked like falling out the EFL altogether, 3 wins in 25 (Bolton A but the other two were the two who went down in the end) and went into mid March nose diving before a bizarre change in form winning 8 and drawing 1 in 9.

So its not always a magic cure and can take new owners time which I am sure with Charlton will longer term turn things around for you.

 

[mozzavale]

You're the one making the argument. You must be so lonely up there in PV. Sit up there analyzing this board and playing with your dik whenever anyone mentions PV. Such a sad little man

That was my 2nd post in about 3 months mate. What is it about Vale that annoys you so much?

 

[leedsvaliant]

You're the one making the argument. You must be so lonely up there in PV. Sit up there analyzing this board and playing with your dik whenever anyone mentions PV. Such a sad little man

You just consistently make yourself look stupid. I never said that we were a bigger club than Charlton, we clearly aren't.

My point was that they would be one of the biggest clubs in league 2 and even Vale were among the top few in that league. We haven't actually spent that much of our history in the bottom league.

To be honest I'll be glad when you get promoted so we don't have to put up with your tiresome bullshit.

 

[kieran_vale]

Think Cheltenham can be very proud of their nights work tonight, excellent result against Blackpool and DC just keeps on doing the business. Everywhere else no real change with most drawing so not much gained or lost.

For us our next 6 games are going to be a good indicator starting at Cheltenham but especially the home games don't want to be dropping points in any of them. We are going to need to be on it for the whole 90 as you know DC will have them set up for that.

 

[valefan16]

Think Cheltenham can be very proud of their nights work tonight, excellent result against Blackpool and DC just keeps on doing the business. Everywhere else no real change with most drawing so not much gained or lost.

For us our next 6 games are going to be a good indicator starting at Cheltenham but especially the home games don't want to be dropping points in any of them. We are going to need to be on it for the whole 90 as you know DC will have them set up for that.

Next three home games are crucial, Lincoln, Fleetwood and Shrewsbury… need 7 points minimum there and try and get something from Cheltenham and Reading even if just a point on the road.

Win Saturday would make things look much better though especially with the new manager buzz.

 

[folletto]

Chuks Aneke’s hamstrings will decide if we stay up

 

[Gassy]

Sorry about that earlier this week. Off to join the promotion thread now

 

[Carver]

We're so bad and far behind we don't even qualify for a relegation battle, is it worth us starting a 'Battle to avoid being the worst team' thread?

 

[Luke Imp]

Shows you how much trouble Cheltenham were in when Elliott left that they've been in seemingly such good form for so long yet still find themselves two wins from safety, albeit with two games in hand.

Vale have probably been enjoying sides dropping points but games in hand can be dangerous can't they, I imagine they're on the cusp of having no midweeks free until the end of the season now? You either gain ground and things change for the better really quickly in a week or the opposite - feels an extreme of emotions when it's balanced like that with games in hand. Not sure who their games in hand are against?

EDIT - and fair play to Reading as well, they keep plugging away in difficult circumstances. To be fair to them, they seem to have a performed fairly well most of the season but not necessarily had the quality.

 

[Si Robin]

Part of the problem is that even in playing well we managed to lose a few games - Bolton, Derby and Orient for example.

The first half against Reading at home was the most dominant 45 mins I've ever seen from a Cheltenham team yet we went in at half-time 2-2 because of two goals in first half injury time. It's little things like that which are going to cost us I think.

 

[valefan16]

Shows you how much trouble Cheltenham were in when Elliott left that they've been in seemingly such good form for so long yet still find themselves two wins from safety, albeit with two games in hand.

Vale have probably been enjoying sides dropping points but games in hand can be dangerous can't they, I imagine they're on the cusp of having no midweeks free until the end of the season now? You either gain ground and things change for the better really quickly in a week or the opposite - feels an extreme of emotions when it's balanced like that with games in hand. Not sure who their games in hand are against?

We have re-arranged fixtures:

Home - Wycombe and Fleetwood
Away - Peterborough and Reading

Peterborough and Wycombe have yet to be pencilled in

Last night gives us some breathing space as we played last Tuesday and play the next 2 Tuesday, next free midweek is 5th March but play 12th March, 19th is Free also and the 2 weeks after that are the Easter fixtures so rules them Tuesday's out.

3 midweeks free in April I suppose so ideally put one in there but I think there is snow forecast for the weekend we play Lincoln and into Fleetwood that following Tuesday so if that does happen we could end up almost every midweek!

Issue we have is players are missing through injury into March, and a few only came back a week or so back so on one hand a delay is good but more pressure to get them up to speed.

I'd rather have points on the board, ironically if we'd played Orient and Fleetwood when they were scheduled rather than delayed for international call ups (all 3 have left now anyway!) we'd have probably had a much better chance of beating them at that time with a fit Ben Garrity etc and their weaker form then!

We've a lot of kind home fixtures "on paper" (i say that as this is Vale!) so thats going to be key, we've had poor home form in general but played virtually all the top 10 at VP now bar Oxford.

 

[Luke Imp]

I was looking back at pre-season predictions earlier today and the below was taking from a statistical look at L1 relegation - and it's not going to be too far off by the looks of it.

Statistically the relegated teams are likely to include:
- One (but only one) of Northampton, Carlisle, Orient and Stevenage
- One of Exeter, Port Vale and Bristol Rovers
- One of Cambridge, Cheltenham and Bolton
- One surprise, wither one of the long-standing teams (Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Oxford) or one of the relegated teams (Blackpool, Reading, Wigan)

 

[K-Win]

So that's one team from each of the three previous batches of promoted teams plus one random (I think). Makes sense.

 

[Luke Imp]

The full post is this (also includes potential promoted sides).

Of the last 60 teams promoted into League One, 10 have been relegated in their first season, one has gone bust, and four have been promoted straight into the Championship.
Forty-five out of sixty (75%) have remained in League One after their first season.

Of the last 45 teams relegated into League One, fifteen have been promoted straight back and five have dropped straight through into League Two.
Only 25 out of 45 (55%) have remained in League One after their first season.

Teams promoted into League One in the last 15 seasons have outcomes as follows:
Relegated/bust after 1 season: 11 out of 60
Relegated after 2 seasons: 8 out of 43
Relegated after 3 seasons: 5 out of 30
Relegated after 4 seasons: 3 out of 22
Relegated after 5 seasons: 7 out of 17 (season five is the most dangerous!)
Relegated after 6 seasons: 2 out of 9
Relegated after 7 seasons: 1 out of 7
Relegated after 9 seasons: 1 out of 5

Promoted after 1 season: 4 out of 60
Promoted after 2 seasons: 2 out of 43
Promoted after 3 seasons: 2 out of 30
Promoted after 4 seasons: 1 out of 22
Promoted after 5 seasons: 1 out of 17
Promoted after 6 seasons: 1 out of 9
Promoted after 7 seasons: 1 out of 7

Teams still in League one after a promotion are:
Survived one season: Bristol R, Port Vale, Exeter
Survived 2 seasons: Bolton, Cambridge, Cheltenham
Survived 3 seasons: None
Survived 4 seasons: Lincoln
Survived 5 seasons: None
Survived 6 seasons: Portsmouth
Survived 7 seasons: Oxford
Survived 8 seasons: Shrewsbury
Survived 9 seasons: Fleetwood

Half of all teams relegated into League One are promoted within two seasons, and 27 of 45 (60%) after four seasons; however 8 of 45 (18%) were relegated to League 2 within 2 seasons

Only six teams remain in League One after recent relegation:
Stayed down 1 season: Peterborough, Barnsley and Derby
Stayed down 2 seasons: Wycombe
Stayed down 3 seasons: Charlton
Stayed down 5 seasons: Burton

The teams that have the longest stays in league One in the last 15 years are Fleetwood (still here) and Gillingham (relegated 2022) with 9 seasons; Peterborough (promoted 2021) and Colchester (relegated 2017) both managed 8. So stays in League One do tend to be quite brief...

Statistically the three promoted teams next season are likely to include:
- one of Reading, Blackpool and Wigan
- one of Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley

Statistically the relegated teams are likely to include:
- One (but only one) of Northampton, Carlisle, Orient and Stevenage
- One of Exeter, Port Vale and Bristol Rovers
- One of Cambridge, Cheltenham and Bolton
- One surprise, wither one of the long-standing teams (Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Oxford) or one of the relegated teams (Blackpool, Reading, Wigan)

 

[K-Win]

It's also worth noting that 37% of statistics are worthless 23% of the time.

 

[thewwfc]

Big result for Chelts there and bad news for Port Vale.

Huge glut of mediocrity around the 35-40 point mark, any of whom could still 100% be dragged into this.

Could be building up to yet another brown-trousered final day classic - I just hope we're on the beach by then.

 

[valefan16]

We need Garrity back asap, luckily he’s on the grass but we are so bare bones.

Win Tuesday we are out the bottom 4 but today sounded really poor and a lack of fight. When one of their players chucks one of ours into a hoarding and not one team mate is backing you up you’ve got problems.

Have to win 1 from the next 2 or we are down I think, we need time for players to return and Moore to figure things out but we don’t have that.

Think it will be Carlisle, Fleetwood, us and Shrews who will go. Burton are ticking wins off, Charlton will improve and DC has turned Cheltenham around. Reading are also in form so see Shrewsbury getting the fourth spot with us probably struggling to get 40 points.

Need to focus on next season.

 

[AmberRich]

It really takes the piss if Reading don't get another points deduction. Would be a shame to see any responsible club in that bottom half go down at their expense.

 

[valefan16]

It really takes the piss if Reading don't get another points deduction. Would be a shame to see any responsible club in that bottom half go down at their expense.

Well we get a rematch on Tuesday which considering we still had Uche fit and Devine and now face them with neither, screwed us over that has.

 

[Randolph Haggerty]

No way that vale team stays up.
Another gutless performance.
Pett and Lloyd played well.
An absolute shambles.
But not flickers fault because he nearly got us a striker.
Good for him.

 

[CTFCfan99]

No way that vale team stays up.
Another gutless performance.
Pett and Lloyd played well.
An absolute shambles.
But not flickers fault because he nearly got us a striker.
Good for him.

Pett is an absolute class act, baffles me that he didn't have a club until October. Thought Chislett looked a good player for you but otherwise not much to get excited about from a Vale pov

 

[valefan16]

Pett is an absolute class act, baffles me that he didn't have a club until October. Thought Chislett looked a good player for you but otherwise not much to get excited about from a Vale pov

Chislett has been a good signing, most of our quality is injured though, we play 3-5-2 but have no fit wingbacks hence the shocking defending from those areas. We’ve gone from having an abundance of central midfielders, and real quality in there to having to play an ageing centre half there.

First half of the season we had a midfielder who’s about to make his Premier League debut and ones who’s now a Championship regular with Ojo who’s been class but coming back to fitness after a lengthy lay off to having said centre half and a youth midfielder finishing the game off. Blasters replacement is quality on paper (Gore) but is also injured now!

Injuries and a bad January have killed us. Garrity, Clark and Plant are back from long lay offs soon, all three training now and Gore should be back next week or so, that may give us hope and will improve us but we could leave ourselves far too much to do when they get back if we don’t grind out points in the 2-3 more games until they return.

 

[Si Robin]

I didn't mention Chislett on the match thread - he was bloody outstanding today. The sort of player every club would want in their team, but every opposition fan can't stand.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I didn't mention Chislett on the match thread - he was bloody outstanding today. The sort of player every club would want in their team, but every opposition fan can't stand.

He's been one of the few bright sparks this season. A really solid signing. Unfortunately, he's got Ryan Loft playing up top with him. Potentially the worst player to have ever pulled on our shirt....and we've had some bad ones.

Darrell is still held in high esteem by ourselves and Bristol Rovers, which says everything. I think we were a bit hasty in getting rid but apparently it was his extra curricular stuff more than his performance. Great manager and a guy that all fans can take to.

 

[valefan16]

He's been one of the few bright sparks this season. A really solid signing. Unfortunately, he's got Ryan Loft playing up top with him. Potentially the worst player to have ever pulled on our shirt....and we've had some bad ones.

Darrell is still held in high esteem by ourselves and Bristol Rovers, which says everything. I think we were a bit hasty in getting rid but apparently it was his extra curricular stuff more than his performance. Great manager and a guy that all fans can take to.

Maybe should of given him leave from January last season whenever things went wrong and let Crosby oversee until the summer but easy to say in hindsight.

Great to see him back to his normal self, will always be loved at Vale Park, gave us a team to be proud off and the emotions we all went through with him into that promotion and final it was everyone as one at that point.

Sadly all that work is being undone by a side of nice lads but with little fight and bottle. Sad today to see one of the main away bus organisers who’s been loyal to the club for years decide to pack it in.

Ah well, we will have the best hospitality and score board in league two and the new gym will be nice…

 

[leedsvaliant]

Maybe should of given him leave from January last season whenever things went wrong and let Crosby oversee until the summer but easy to say in hindsight.

Great to see him back to his normal self, will always be loved at Vale Park, gave us a team to be proud off and the emotions we all went through with him into that promotion and final it was everyone as one at that point.

Sadly all that work is being undone by a side of nice lads but with little fight and bottle. Sad today to see one of the main away bus organisers who’s been loyal to the club for years decide to pack it in.

Ah well, we will have the best hospitality and score board in league two and the new gym will be nice…

I've said it for a few years. Other teams are horrible...Pompey play the ref like a fiddle, Stevenage waste time and wind up, Bristol Rovers refereed the match when they got promoted. What do we do when a ref gives a poor decision? Turn our backs and carry on. What do we do when we've got a narrow lead late in the game? We will allow the opposition as much opportunity to equalise as possible. We're too nice. Waste time, feign injury, get in the ref's ear....we should be doing this constantly but no, it's not our way. Look at Stevenage last week.....Evans had clearly had a word at half time as he gave everything to them second half. Why don't we do it? Push the rules?

If it were my team I'd be telling them to pull all these little tricks and be as horrible as possible. Nice guys finish last.

 

[valefan16]

I've said it for a few years. Other teams are horrible...Pompey play the ref like a fiddle, Stevenage waste time and wind up, Bristol Rovers refereed the match when they got promoted. What do we do when a ref gives a poor decision? Turn our backs and carry on. What do we do when we've got a narrow lead late in the game? We will allow the opposition as much opportunity to equalise as possible. We're too nice. Waste time, feign injury, get in the ref's ear....we should be doing this constantly but no, it's not our way. Look at Stevenage last week.....Evans had clearly had a word at half time as he gave everything to them second half. Why don't we do it? Push the rules?

If it were my team I'd be telling them to pull all these little tricks and be as horrible as possible. Nice guys finish last.

Spot on. The fabled “d head” test is great in principle but doesn’t help win matches. You’ve got to have a ruthless streak.

 

[folletto]

Much better from us yesterday, finally showing some fight. I expect us to be in the bottom 4 come the end of the month given our next games are against Pompey and Derby but it’s nice to finally see some effort from the players. I think it could come down to the wire for us, I’m hoping that first win since November could open the floodgates a bit but ticking it off is proving hard