Relegation Dogfight Thread

[Luke Imp]

Have Carlisle actually got worse since the January transfer window?!

Are Shrewsbury getting nervous? We've heard all season how they've got a half decent group (which I'm not disputing because I don't know enough about them) but they've lost the third highest amount of games this season, lowest scorers in the league and just can't pull away.

 

[valefan16]

Have Carlisle actually got worse since the January transfer window?!

Are Shrewsbury getting nervous? We've heard all season how they've got a half decent group (which I'm not disputing because I don't know enough about them) but they've lost the third highest amount of games this season, lowest scorers in the league and just can't pull away.

Their fans seem confident but the stats tell a bleak story there, think their PPG has them down as it stands and the worry for them now is Cheltenham, who are averaging double the points they are per game in recent months so a matter of time before they catch them which leaves them reliant on us not finding any form under DM and Charlton not finding points with their new boss and better squad on paper… they need both of them not to happen and whilst we probably won’t take advantage of games in hand Charlton surely will find results soon.

Carlisle are gone. No chance they get 30 points in 14 games that’s title form, and hard to see Fleetwood getting 24 in 13.

So for me, the bottom 3 currently plus Shrewsbury seems the most likely outcome.

Twists and turns to come though I dare say!

 

[Floreat Salopia]

Have Carlisle actually got worse since the January transfer window?!

Are Shrewsbury getting nervous? We've heard all season how they've got a half decent group (which I'm not disputing because I don't know enough about them) but they've lost the third highest amount of games this season, lowest scorers in the league and just can't pull away.

Personally myself, no I’m not nervous. Since Hurst has come in we’ve beaten Northampton away convincingly, lost at home to Cambridge, drew away at Derby, drew at home to Barnsley with them having to score a last minute penalty, then lost to Wigan where we had 16 shots to their 5 and really should have gained atleast a point.

It’s strange as you’d think with the position we’re in I’d be nervous, but I’m far from it. We’re not going down, we’ll 100% win five games from now until the end of the season with how we’re playing under the new management. Taylor’s fault we’re in this mess but we have the players to get out tbf.

 

[K-Win]

I expect us to be in the bottom 4 come the end of the month given our next games are against Pompey and Derby

Don't forget, form and league position are meaningless when you play us. I'll take a point.

 

[Bobbin']

March is the month for us, full of winnable games and we have Cheltenham, Carlisle and Fleetwood in a row, 3 teams all below us.

If we can stay in touch and get through the next two games relatively unscathed (GD as ours is lightyears ahead of those around us) I’ll be feeling a lot better.

 

[valefan16]

Looks like Garrity (top scorer, midfielder) and Clark a wing back! Set to return Tuesday. That is a massive boost to our chances especially Garrity but need to hope they get up and running quickly. Two massive losses for us this past 2-3 months.

 

[Si Robin]

On our pod a couple of weeks back we talked about the 9 games (Starting with Wycombe at home) being make or break for our season. The games were Wycombe x2, Burton x2, Cambridge, Blackpool, Vale, Wigan and Charlton.

We were on 23 points then and I said we needed a minimum of 17 points. We're currently 4 games into that and are on 9 points. Unfortunately the Burton away game has been replaced by Oxford away, but the point stands. We need to keep on this run and ensure survival stays in our own hands.

 

[dannylad01]

Have Carlisle actually got worse since the January transfer window?!

Are Shrewsbury getting nervous? We've heard all season how they've got a half decent group (which I'm not disputing because I don't know enough about them) but they've lost the third highest amount of games this season, lowest scorers in the league and just can't pull away.

I'm a bit more nervous than Floreat Salopia, but I also think we'll have enough to stay up. The problems we had in the first half of the season is when we were set up so defensively that we hardly created chances let alone score goals. To top that off when went behind there was more often than not no fight in the team and we then shipped more goals, which has stuffed up our goal difference. We didn't draw many games.

Since Hurst has come in the fighting spirit has come back. It speaks volumes that Hurst is relying more on Cotterill's players than the cheaper summer recruits, where before each game 3 or 4 of them not in the squad are doing laps of the pitch before the team comes out for the warm up. The striker singing from the league of Ireland, Max Mata, has been sent back to Sligo on loan with his confidence totally shot.

Must admit from the 5 games Hurst has had, I'd have targeted 6 points (winning against Cambridge and Wigan at home), but we've lost both of those games but picked up points in the trickier fixtures. We should have got something yesterday against Wigan, but didn't take our chances.

The big week for us is mid March where we play Port Vale (A), Exeter midweek (H) and Carlisle (H). That will go a long way to deciding how nervy the end of season will be.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Personally myself, no I’m not nervous. Since Hurst has come in we’ve beaten Northampton away convincingly, lost at home to Cambridge, drew away at Derby, drew at home to Barnsley with them having to score a last minute penalty, then lost to Wigan where we had 16 shots to their 5 and really should have gained atleast a point.

It’s strange as you’d think with the position we’re in I’d be nervous, but I’m far from it. We’re not going down, we’ll 100% win five games from now until the end of the season with how we’re playing under the new management. Taylor’s fault we’re in this mess but we have the players to get out tbf.

You've got a very positive outlook on your team. We've had a number of games where we've had loads of possession and shots (including against you) but we haven't picked up the points. It shows a weak mentality and points towards relegation.

Incidentally, I thought Shrewsbury were dreadful when we played them, and they still beat us! I think we had 16 corners to their 1, double the amount of shots but no goals. We're weak as piss and not ruthless, hence we've lost against a lot of the teams around us. They always seem far more up for the battle than we do.

Garrity and Clark will add a bit of fight and running but they've both been out for extended periods.

Our form in the last year has been dreadful. Not a chance We're picking up 5 or 6 wins from here.

Ah well....Bromley will be a new ground.

 

[Floreat Salopia]

You've got a very positive outlook on your team. We've had a number of games where we've had loads of possession and shots (including against you) but we haven't picked up the points. It shows a weak mentality and points towards relegation.

Incidentally, I thought Shrewsbury were dreadful when we played them, and they still beat us! I think we had 16 corners to their 1, double the amount of shots but no goals. We're weak as piss and not ruthless, hence we've lost against a lot of the teams around us. They always seem far more up for the battle than we do.

Garrity and Clark will add a bit of fight and running but they've both been out for extended periods.

Our form in the last year has been dreadful. Not a chance We're picking up 5 or 6 wins from here.

Ah well....Bromley will be a new ground.

You played us when we had a PE teacher as gaffer. Every single game we played we had no more than 35/40% possession and most teams battered us. We’re a very different team under Paul Hurst. Obviously it’s just my opinion and not a fact, we aren’t going down imo. We’ll see if I’m correct in the coming months though, might end up with egg on my face.

 

[valefan16]

The issue with Floriants reply is the problem, we’ve played well but not won… that’s relegation. We didn’t win in 13 but “played well”. Lack of goals is their problem, if you don’t win when playing well you go down. Hence our bad run… only since Blaster and Devine have done we are now not winning and playing crap! But do have a beautiful score board… and sold a kid to Villa for a record school boy fee.

I’m at the point where relegation feels a salvation and that’s hard to say but I’m bored s***•less.
11 wins since Jan 2 2023 in the league… 5 of those in a 4 week spell in August/Sept and 3 in December.

We’ve got decent owners, invested more than ever before but it’s all off the field, we weren’t ready for league one doing it properly building “infrastructure” so actually going down, some great kids coming through, best players under contact so pay or stay!

Maybe we will enjoy more enjoyable weekends than this depressing crap.

We’ve clearly got to get the structure right off the field before being bothered with on the field stuff so may as well wait.

Drove past our 2021/22 promotion sides pre season camp locally to me (Champneys) earlier… said to the wife, miss that side with DC and a group of men.. but we’ve messed this up. Nice boys with no fight at all.

 

[valefan16]

You played us when we had a PE teacher as gaffer. Every single game we played we had no more than 35/40% possession and most teams battered us. We’re a very different team under Paul Hurst. Obviously it’s just my opinion and not a fact, we aren’t going down imo. We’ll see if I’m correct in the coming months though, might end up with egg on my face.

To be fair mate we had a PE teacher too but think the damage is too far engrained now… wish I had your positive outlook though! It’s good to see. Wish I had it!

 

[Fuzzyvalefan]

I think we'll be fine to be honest. We have lots of games in hand over our rivals and with Ben Garrity's return imminent we will have basically 3 times the goal threat, also as Alex Mighten gets fitter he will be a quality addition, not to mention Dan Gore and Mitch Clark. Need to be better defensively but a back 5 of Mitch Clark, Jesse Debrah, Nathan Smith, Alex Iacovitti and Connor Grant/Dan Jones looks pretty impressive to me. Uche Ikpaezu should be back in for the run in too, but Ryan Loft playing as a wide forward looked far more effective. Once Garrity goes in the middle a front 3 of Loft/Mighten, Garrity, Wilson should be pretty strong. Funso Ojo and Rhys Walters for me in the middle. Both good passers, forward thinking and physically strong.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Have Carlisle actually got worse since the January transfer window?

I don’t think they have got worse, I just think the fight and battle has gone.

They started season knowing it would be hard and would have to work and battle for every point and I’d say they did for first few months.

But since the takeover all the players have heard from press, radio, manager, new owners and fanbase is that they ain’t good enough, we need rid of them, they make lots of errors, we need better etc etc

I may at times wonder why players don’t try but dear me if your at work and just constantly told weekly your crap at home t and we want rid of you……..your not going to turn up to work each day wanting to have a great day and impress.

The takeover was needed, long term it could be a good thing, but I think certainly it’s contributed to this season getting worse because we lost some of that unity and against the odds spirit and replaced it with arrogance.

Don’t worry January will come we can get shot of all this useless crap and bring in masses to sort it all out because we’ve the cash now etc etc

 

[kieran_vale]

I think we'll be fine to be honest. We have lots of games in hand over our rivals and with Ben Garrity's return imminent we will have basically 3 times the goal threat, also as Alex Mighten gets fitter he will be a quality addition, not to mention Dan Gore and Mitch Clark. Need to be better defensively but a back 5 of Mitch Clark, Jesse Debrah, Nathan Smith, Alex Iacovitti and Connor Grant/Dan Jones looks pretty impressive to me. Uche Ikpaezu should be back in for the run in too, but Ryan Loft playing as a wide forward looked far more effective. Once Garrity goes in the middle a front 3 of Loft/Mighten, Garrity, Wilson should be pretty strong. Funso Ojo and Rhys Walters for me in the middle. Both good passers, forward thinking and physically strong.

It’ll live and die by whether we can get a tune out of this lot at home.

Our remaining home fixtures are Lincoln, Fleetwood, Shrews, Oxford, Rovers, Exeter, Cambridge and then Wycombe is TBC. Can we summon up 5 wins out of that and then take what you can scab on the road? It’s doable but not with the pathetic sort of defending have seen all too often this season from us. That needs to be Darren Moores sole focus short term.

I have to admit though already started taking an interest in L2 and who might be our biggest barriers to a possible promotion challenge so am in the boat of rooting for the likes of Stockport and Wrexham to be out the way.

 

[Floreat Salopia]

It’ll live and die by whether we can get a tune out of this lot at home.

Our remaining home fixtures are Lincoln, Fleetwood, Shrews, Oxford, Rovers, Exeter, Cambridge and then Wycombe is TBC. Can we summon up 5 wins out of that and then take what you can scab on the road? It’s doable but not with the pathetic sort of defending have seen all too often this season from us. That needs to be Darren Moores sole focus short term.

I have to admit though already started taking an interest in L2 and who might be our biggest barriers to a possible promotion challenge so am in the boat of rooting for the likes of Stockport and Wrexham to be out the way.

League One has potential to be class next season geography wise next year for the likes of yourselves and us.

We both stay up alongside Burton. Stockport, Wrexham and Crewe coming up. Then if one of Birmingham or Stoke come down then even better. Could be a fair few fiesty games next season for us.

 

[kieran_vale]

League One has potential to be class next season geography wise next year for the likes of yourselves and us.

We both stay up alongside Burton. Stockport, Wrexham and Crewe coming up. Then if one of Birmingham or Stoke come down then even better. Could be a fair few fiesty games next season for us.

Aye, Walsall are not a million miles off the L2 playoffs either I guess though with our record against them could do without playing them.

I guess if Stoke went down we’d still end up playing them anyway regardless how our season turns out with how they rig the Trophy group stages draw. Would end up being the most violent group stage match in the history of the competition if it happened.

 

[valefan16]

Aye, Walsall are not a million miles off the L2 playoffs either I guess though with our record against them could do without playing them.

I guess if Stoke went down we’d still end up playing them anyway regardless how our season turns out with how they rig the Trophy group stages draw. Would end up being the most violent group stage match in the history of the competition if it happened.

Since the last one! (Vale v Stoke B)

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I don’t think they have got worse, I just think the fight and battle has gone.

They started season knowing it would be hard and would have to work and battle for every point and I’d say they did for first few months.

But since the takeover all the players have heard from press, radio, manager, new owners and fanbase is that they ain’t good enough, we need rid of them, they make lots of errors, we need better etc etc

I may at times wonder why players don’t try but dear me if your at work and just constantly told weekly your crap at home t and we want rid of you……..your not going to turn up to work each day wanting to have a great day and impress.

The takeover was needed, long term it could be a good thing, but I think certainly it’s contributed to this season getting worse because we lost some of that unity and against the odds spirit and replaced it with arrogance.

Don’t worry January will come we can get shot of all this useless crap and bring in masses to sort it all out because we’ve the cash now etc etc

You have us next so that's 3 points for you. We are gifting goals and points away at the moment

 

[thewwfc]

This is our run-in - plus Vale (A) to be rescheduled.

There's some tough games in there, but if we can't scrape a point per game at least from those, then we deserve what we get.

I feel like Charlton are probably going to turn it round and just become mediocre rather than abysmal, but if they don't - and we take a turn for the worse - there's a potential brown trousers classic waiting on the final day of the season.

 

[valefan16]

It’ll live and die by whether we can get a tune out of this lot at home.

Our remaining home fixtures are Lincoln, Fleetwood, Shrews, Oxford, Rovers, Exeter, Cambridge and then Wycombe is TBC. Can we summon up 5 wins out of that and then take what you can scab on the road? It’s doable but not with the pathetic sort of defending have seen all too often this season from us. That needs to be Darren Moores sole focus short term.

I have to admit though already started taking an interest in L2 and who might be our biggest barriers to a possible promotion challenge so am in the boat of rooting for the likes of Stockport and Wrexham to be out the way.

The home games are critical to us really, only Oxford of the top 9 visit us and they are hit and miss but huge games against Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Exeter and Cambridge really, plus Wycombe, Lincoln, Bristol Rovers of the mid table sides and we have been Orient aside at least playing relatively well at home so need to chalk off as many wins there.

Away considering our decent early form is terrible, we've lost to all 3 of the sides in the bottom 4 with us in the last 3 away and been awful, the worry is the main difference between us and them has been fight and effort, we've looked tame and weak in all three whereas they are at least fighting and in Cheltenham's case thats helping them through. George Lloyd threw Kacsper in the hoardings and we did nothing... no fight at all there.

Obviously write off Derby, Bolton and Peterborough as free hits but points to be hard away from home but need a serious improvement mentally over recent efforts.

Hope is on Garrity though, top scoring midfielder in league one when he got injured NYD and defensively we seem so much better with him as he chases and rats so its not so easy for teams to come straight back at us like they are.

We have the players to do it, especially with some key players returning and should be more than capable but a lot of reliance on long term returnees getting up to speed fast and considering we took over half our current points total in the first 7 games a big shift in form over half a season of games is needed.

 

[SVH]

I think we'll be on the beach when we visit.

 

[valefan16]

I think we'll be on the beach when we visit.

Just remember the "on the beach" performance we put in at the Abbey a few years back... could do with returning the favour on that one!

 

[leedsvaliant]

I think we'll be on the beach when we visit.

Might be too late by then.

 

[kieran_vale]

Just remember the "on the beach" performance we put in at the Abbey a few years back... could do with returning the favour on that one!

That was the happiest have ever been during a 5-0 loss as Stoke had been relegated earlier in the day.

 

[Bartonyellow]

I don’t know if we will stay up or not - you think you are safe one week then the next it changes. It will go to the wire except the bottom 2 I think.
I think 50 points should do it - so we need 4 wins from 14 games. Possible just on home games, but who knows. Play like we did against Lincoln at home and we are right in the mix.
Be great if Stoke came down. Brother in law is a fan ( a blinkered one at that ) so to beat them would be fantastic.
I hope Walsall come up, and Crewe and Mansfield to make it a midlands league with vale, Shrewsbury and Lincoln.
Plus Sheffield Wednesday is not far for us have a good record there.

 

[GEORGE]

I don’t know if we will stay up or not - you think you are safe one week then the next it changes. It will go to the wire except the bottom 2 I think.
I think 50 points should do it - so we need 4 wins from 14 games. Possible just on home games, but who knows. Play like we did against Lincoln at home and we are right in the mix.
Be great if Stoke came down. Brother in law is a fan ( a blinkered one at that ) so to beat them would be fantastic.
I hope Walsall come up, and Crewe and Mansfield to make it a midlands league with vale, Shrewsbury and Lincoln.
Plus Sheffield Wednesday is not far for us have a good record there.

If Stoke come down the Police costs will go up.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

If Stoke come down the Police costs will go up.

Vale and Stoke in the same division for the first time in decades would probably do that on it's own.

Imagine we'll get familiar faces back + 1, but that plus one probably won't be Stoke.

That Wycombe fixture list doesn't look that easy, no gimmies (apart from the obvious), but I guess there aren't that many to go around. A tougher fixture now could be an 'on the beacher' opposition by the time you get there.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Stoke usually scab enough wins to be safe so I can't see them being relegated. If they did and we stayed up, that fixture would be carnage.

 

[valefan16]

Stoke usually scab enough wins to be safe so I can't see them being relegated. If they did and we stayed up, that fixture would be carnage.

Should put them in the Railway so they pay for the new toilets!