Relegation Thread 2017/18

[Chris FGR]

Braintree was a complete disaster for us the season we won it, we took 1300 - in a crowd of 1750, took the lead then lost 2-1. Kiddy won at Wrexham and I thought we blew it.

There were a good 8/9 teams that were part time when we were there, that number the same now?

I remember it being really hard to rearrange a Tuesday night at home to Altrincham (we lost 1-0 lol) as some of their players needed to book the time off work!

Think there were aound 10 last season, although teams like Dover and Chester had a mixture of full and part timers. A bit less then that this year I think.

 

[CFC91]

Can't see many making the Morecambe game now - far enough for a Saturday let alone midweek. Most attractive away day left for me is Cheltenham away following the Gold Cup on the Friday.

Yup, that could be a belting weekend.

Can't do Exeter but if we're in the mix will be at Vale and FGR and already have train tickets booked for Barnet.

 

[FGR Stroud]

Mansfield fans pointing out attendances when they're getting 2000 odd at the top of league 2 deary me some people!

In fairness to Mansfield they have an average 4,085 attendance figure - exactly mid-table.
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-two/attendances

 

[shoddycollins]

Ha you've been caught out loadsa times on here talking utter bollocks, classic one being the other day in the checkatrade thread when someone showed you up by pulling up one of your older posts notice you didn't respond to that, understandable, you must have been rather embarrassed.

And a little tip, stop saying after a discussion that you've "won the argument". Sounds very childish and 99 times out of 100 you most certainly have not, you don't have the intellect

The fact that Lincoln fans are paying so much attention to the Checkafail thread is the height of tinpottery.

 

[Westbars_Spireite]

The results were kind to us last night but it's meaningless unless we start winning a few games.

 

[JJ1532]

Right. As we're about the enter the final 2 months of the season, plus the last dozen or so games, I thought we'd roll out the Real League Two table, relegation style. This is going to show what teams are probably going to need for safety and what really stands out is how much the L2 table varies year on year. In League One, I found 50 was usually a pretty good marker for what you needed to stay up, with the odd exception. But in the last 6 seasons, teams in this league have gone down on 51 one year and would have stayed up with 36 on another. That's a pretty crazy variance.

I think looking at how things are shaping up, unless every team down near the bottom starts winning regularly then 40 points might be enough. Think 45 almost certainly will keep you up. Hey, Newport proved teams can suddenly start winning, but I would argue they are rarities. Chesterfield and Barnet have not shown any signs of being able to string wins together, nor have most of the bottom 9. I won't include those teams on more than 40 points as I really can't see any of them being involved in this, even if they do start losing every week. If any team starts pulling away, we'll remove them as well. Genuinely think it's 2 from 9 as it stands.

51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 -
48 -
47 - Safety 2017
46 -
45 - Safety 2012
44 -
43 -
43 -
42 - Safety 2015
41 -
40 -
39 - Predicted Safety 17-18 Cheltenham(34)
38 - Yeovil(33)
37 -
36 - Grimsby(34)
35 - Safety 2016
34 - Port Vale(33)
33 - Forest Green(33), Crewe(34)
32 - Morecambe(32)
31 -
30 -
29 -
28 -
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27 - Chesterfield(33)
26 - Barnet(34)

Right, we'll go with the next 5 games for each team until we get to the final 10 and then we'll list them all. Teams in Red are the 9 included in this thread, whilst the teams in Green are the current top 10, which of course will change as we keep things updated.

Forthcoming fixtures:

16th Cheltenham(34) - 39 points. Luton(A), Notts County(H), Swindon(A), Chesterfield(H), Crawley(A)
17th Yeovil(33) - 38 points. Carlisle(H), Swindon(A), Newport(H), Exeter(A), Colchester(A)
18th Grimsby(34) - 36 points. Exeter(H), Carlisle(A), Port Vale(H), Lincoln(A), Coventry(A)
19th Port Vale(33) - 34 points. Newport(H), Barnet(A), Grimsby(A), Stevenage(H), Exeter(H)
20th Forest Green(33) - 33 points. Crawley(H), Crewe(A), Newport(A), Notts County(H), Accrington(A)
21st Crewe(34) - 33 points. Lincoln(A), Forest Green(H), Stevenage(A), Coventry(H), Newport(A)
22nd Morecambe(32) - 32 points. Wycombe(A), Colchester(H), Accrington(A), Crawley(A), Exeter(H)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Chesterfield(33) - 27 points. Swindon(H), Exeter(A), Lincoln(H), Cheltenham(A), Notts County(H)
24th Barnet(34) - 26 points. Colchester(A), Port Vale(H), Coventry(A), Wycombe(H), Luton(A)

All I can say is, ouch ouch ouch for a lot of the teams down there, they have got very tough runs over the next few weeks. Ours isn't the easiest as it will be tough to get results at Stevenage and Newport, plus our 2 home games are massive, but there is enough there for us to get some points. Can't say the same for most of the others, especially the bottom 3. Horrible runs they've got.

So then, what do we all reckon? What will teams need points wise to stay up? Who's going down as you see it today? Who has the worst next month of fixtures?

 

[valefan16]

45 points should do it. Huge few games for us with Chesterfield, Crewe, Barnet and Grimsby up

 

[GTFCfish]

If Paul Wilkinson gets the managers job after it seems everyone else is turning it down, we are buggered.

 

[shoddycollins]

Difficult to look past Chesterfield and Barnet, even given the certainty of some of those teams above the relegation zone and on very poor form with vocal and pessimistic fans (Crewe and Grimsby).

Both times we've played Barnet they've shown themselves to be a team with something about them but it's just not happening for them and Akinde has gone off the boil. I expected Westley to get them to dig in and become hard to beat and to an extent this is what he's done but it's difficult to see them starting to win games and clawing back much of their deficit. Chesterfield's next few games are horrific and they could easily get 4 points or less from those.

 

[Buxton Vale]

I think Barnet and Chesterfield are likely to struggle to escape the bottom two places, although Grimsby and Morecambe could easily end up filling one of those spots if someone can string a few good results together. Our next few games are better than most, but we need to win (or not lose) our 6 pointers as games start to run out. Crewe, FGR and ourselves should be safe, and as little as 42 pts might be enough this season.

 

[Luke Imp]

Still can't believe safety was so low in 2016. That's serious shittness right there.

 

[JJ1532]

Our saving grace is that our run in is favourable. Of our final 12 games, only 4 are in the top half and only 2 of those are currently in the top 7. Our final 5 home games are Forest Green, Coventry(who are suffering a dip in form), Port Vale, Morecambe and Cheltenham. Got to be looking at 10 points from that lot, get less than that and we could well go down. Hell, even our away games at Stevenage and Crawley aren't totally unwinnable, but they'll be difficult. Barnet on good Friday will be huge as well.

I've written off Saturday and the trips to Mansfield and Luton, anything we get from those(including a narrow defeat) would be a bonus.

 

[valefan16]

Our saving grace is that our run in is favourable. Of our final 12 games, only 4 are in the top half and only 2 of those are currently in the top 7. Our final 5 home games are Forest Green, Coventry(who are suffering a dip in form), Port Vale, Morecambe and Cheltenham. Got to be looking at 10 points from that lot, get less than that and we could well go down. Hell, even our away games at Stevenage and Crawley aren't totally unwinnable, but they'll be difficult. Barnet on good Friday will be huge as well.

I've written off Saturday and the trips to Mansfield and Luton, anything we get from those(including a narrow defeat) would be a bonus.

Easter is massive for us both...

Good Friday

Port Vale v Chesterfield
Barnet V Crewe

East Monday

Crewe v Port Vale

Do each other a favour Good Friday could set up a cracker. (although with March fixtures I am hoping we'd be almost safe by then)

 

[kieran_vale]

Overall our upcoming fixtures are not the most unfriendly but that doesn't really mean a great deal. Following a run over Christmas of playing Cov, Luton and Notts we had on paper some good opportunities for points against FGR and Yeovil and blew it so not reading a great deal into it.

I think we will survive more through others ineptitude than us saving ourselves but in truth for as long as the idiot is owner it's really just delaying the inevitable for another year.

 

[The Terminator]

Having watched my team play in the National league for 6 months now, I can safely warn anyone who comes down here that you will need to get your shit in order behind the scenes to stand any chance of coming back at the first attempt, also the most important factor IMO for any league side who goes down - Get in a manager that knows how to win games in this league, because teams at this level may not be any good technically compared to your squad, but they will fight for every loose and second ball, time waste, sit back and play on the break with quick nippy players, also the refs are easily conned and appalling in general, as well as watching virtually every team come to your ground and raise their game by a few points and play the game like a fucking cup final. You may think the same thing applies up here, but trust me once you've watched teams like Guiseley, Fylde, Boreham Wood and Gateshead turn you over you will see the point...........

We went 13 games without a win from September-December, when Steve Davis thought he could out pass and attack the smaller so called lesser sides than us.......Well having lost 6-1 away at Bromley on a 3G Pitch back in August due to this, I can confirm that you need to respect every side at this level that little bit more. That night Davis went gung ho in the second half and Bromleys three quick forwards tore us to shreds.

The FA Trophy as well is a big eye opener, we had a local derby away at Haringey Borough on another 3G surface in the first round, they're three leagues below us and their ground only holds 2000, they played the game like it was their last ever game, I've never seen a Non League side so determined to win a game. The second round away at Bogner Regis was a similar tale, they're bottom of the National league South but apparently saved their best performance of the season for when we game to town and narrowly beat them 2-1 in extra time. We have Gateshead at home on Saturday, if we draw the game then we will replay 3 days later..........

Also you will need to build a team that understands playing at this level with the required patience and who are prepared to have to deal with tough direct sides who use gamesmenship, as well as understanding that just because you have a vastly superior team in terms of technical ability, you must match your opponents for their work rate, otherwise you will get turned over.

 

[kieran_vale]

Having watched my team play in the National league for 6 months now, I can safely warn anyone who comes down here that you will need to get your shit in order behind the scenes to stand any chance of coming back at the first attempt, also the most important factor IMO for any league side who goes down - Get in a manager that knows how to win games in this league, because teams at this level may not be any good technically compared to your squad, but they will fight for every loose and second ball, time waste, sit back and play on the break with quick nippy players, also the refs are easily conned and appalling in general, as well as watching virtually every team come to your ground and raise their game by a few points and play the game like a fucking cup final. You may think the same thing applies up here, but trust me once you've watched teams like Guiseley, Fylde, Boreham Wood and Gateshead turn you over you will see the point...........

We went 13 games without a win from September-December, when Steve Davis thought he could out pass and attack the smaller so called lesser sides than us.......Well having lost 6-1 away at Bromley on a 3G Pitch back in August due to this, I can confirm that you need to respect every side at this level that little bit more. That night Davis went gung ho in the second half and Bromleys three quick forwards tore us to shreds.

The FA Trophy as well is a big eye opener, we had a local derby away at Haringey Borough on another 3G surface in the first round, they're three leagues below us and their ground only holds 2000, they played the game like it was their last ever game, I've never seen a Non League side so determined to win a game. The second round away at Bogner Regis was a similar tale, they're bottom of the National league South but apparently saved their best performance of the season for when we game to town and narrowly beat them 2-1 in extra time. We have Gateshead at home on Saturday, if we draw the game then we will replay 3 days later..........

Also you will need to build a team that understands playing at this level with the required patience and who are prepared to have to deal with tough direct sides who use gamesmenship, as well as understanding that just because you have a vastly superior team in terms of technical ability, you must match your opponents for their work rate, otherwise you will get turned over.

Interesting read about what could be around the corner. Was not surprised Davis didn't work out for you. From the bits and pieces used to hear from him on Radio Stoke he just came across as far too arrogant to ever learn from or even acknowledge his mistakes he made at Crewe.

To be honest the main reason I am hoping we avoid it is I've seen what's happened to Stockport since they left the league and if it can happen to them it can damn sure happen to us too. With Macc probably coming back up and Wrexham possibly too then even the opportunity of renewing acquaintances with them may not be there.

 

[Impish]

The fact that Lincoln fans are paying so much attention to the Checkafail thread is the height of tinpottery.

Dunno what that says about the rest of you lot posting in there still to this day seeing as most of you didn't get out the group stage

 

[ShrimpsMeltdown]

One of our games in hand is away at Accy so you might aswell write that one off already. We still have Chesterfield and Barnet to play at home and Crewe away, all massive.

Jimbo will play not to lose, like we have done all season, which obviously hasn't worked hence why we are down here. It is truely awful to watch week in and week out.

 

[SuperHans]

Right. As we're about the enter the final 2 months of the season, plus the last dozen or so games, I thought we'd roll out the Real League Two table, relegation style. This is going to show what teams are probably going to need for safety and what really stands out is how much the L2 table varies year on year. In League One, I found 50 was usually a pretty good marker for what you needed to stay up, with the odd exception. But in the last 6 seasons, teams in this league have gone down on 51 one year and would have stayed up with 36 on another. That's a pretty crazy variance.

I think looking at how things are shaping up, unless every team down near the bottom starts winning regularly then 40 points might be enough. Think 45 almost certainly will keep you up. Hey, Newport proved teams can suddenly start winning, but I would argue they are rarities. Chesterfield and Barnet have not shown any signs of being able to string wins together, nor have most of the bottom 9. I won't include those teams on more than 40 points as I really can't see any of them being involved in this, even if they do start losing every week. If any team starts pulling away, we'll remove them as well. Genuinely think it's 2 from 9 as it stands.

51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 -
48 -
47 - Safety 2017
46 -
45 - Safety 2012
44 -
43 -
43 -
42 - Safety 2015
41 -
40 -
39 - Predicted Safety 17-18 Cheltenham(34)
38 - Yeovil(33)
37 -
36 - Grimsby(34)
35 - Safety 2016
34 - Port Vale(33)
33 - Forest Green(33), Crewe(34)
32 - Morecambe(32)
31 -
30 -
29 -
28 -
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27 - Chesterfield(33)
26 - Barnet(34)

Right, we'll go with the next 5 games for each team until we get to the final 10 and then we'll list them all. Teams in Red are the 9 included in this thread, whilst the teams in Green are the current top 10, which of course will change as we keep things updated.

Forthcoming fixtures:

16th Cheltenham(34) - 39 points. Luton(A), Notts County(H), Swindon(A), Chesterfield(H), Crawley(A)
17th Yeovil(33) - 38 points. Carlisle(H), Swindon(A), Newport(H), Exeter(A), Colchester(A)
18th Grimsby(34) - 36 points. Exeter(H), Carlisle(A), Port Vale(H), Lincoln(A), Coventry(A)
19th Port Vale(33) - 34 points. Newport(H), Barnet(A), Grimsby(A), Stevenage(H), Exeter(H)
20th Forest Green(33) - 33 points. Crawley(H), Crewe(A), Newport(A), Notts County(H), Accrington(A)
21st Crewe(34) - 33 points. Lincoln(A), Forest Green(H), Stevenage(A), Coventry(H), Newport(A)
22nd Morecambe(32) - 32 points. Wycombe(A), Colchester(H), Accrington(A), Crawley(A), Exeter(H)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Chesterfield(33) - 27 points. Swindon(H), Exeter(A), Lincoln(H), Cheltenham(A), Notts County(H)
24th Barnet(34) - 26 points. Colchester(A), Port Vale(H), Coventry(A), Wycombe(H), Luton(A)

All I can say is, ouch ouch ouch for a lot of the teams down there, they have got very tough runs over the next few weeks. Ours isn't the easiest as it will be tough to get results at Stevenage and Newport, plus our 2 home games are massive, but there is enough there for us to get some points. Can't say the same for most of the others, especially the bottom 3. Horrible runs they've got.

So then, what do we all reckon? What will teams need points wise to stay up? Who's going down as you see it today? Who has the worst next month of fixtures?

Of our next 5 games I can see us getting a realistic return of 5 points. Fancy us to draw against Swindon on Saturday and against Notts at home - but can only see us winning the away game at Cheltenham.

That leaves us on 32 points with 8 games left to play, some of those 8 being Vale away, Grimsby away, Morecambe away, FGR away and Barnet away. All relegation 6 pointers and all winnable games. It is still well and truly in our hands at this stage, as winning 3/5 of those 6 pointers would leave us on 41 points - 2 points above your predicted safety line.

 

[Westbars_Spireite]

Things are grim for us. My only hope to cling onto is that we'll somehow cobble together enough unexpected wins (which would be any of them) to overtake a side who sinks like a stone.

It's perfectly possible that the low 40s will be enough to stay up points-wise.

The problem is that we appear devoid of hunger for the fight. Theoretically despite injuries I do believe the squad is good enough but Jack simply isn't getting anything like a tune out of them.

 

[AdamStag]

Interesting read about what could be around the corner. Was not surprised Davis didn't work out for you. From the bits and pieces used to hear from him on Radio Stoke he just came across as far too arrogant to ever learn from or even acknowledge his mistakes he made at Crewe.

To be honest the main reason I am hoping we avoid it is I've seen what's happened to Stockport since they left the league and if it can happen to them it can damn sure happen to us too. With Macc probably coming back up and Wrexham possibly too then even the opportunity of renewing acquaintances with them may not be there.

It all depends on your finances like what was said. Stockports case fell to the fact they sold themselves out (and then were royally screwed over) by sale sharks. They made minimal profits from home games which obviously in turn took its toll. You can have sides up there with budgets pushin £1.5m (I dare say ours may have been a little over that) fleetwoods, forest greens would be similar if not higher. The lowest was about £200k, so a massive difference.

If your finances can keep going it'll make a difference.

You also lose out on the youth development fund (or whatever it's called) which is worth about £800k a year

 

[TimeyWimey]

Despite the last 5 minutes on Tuesday, I thought we actually looked ok and with Dagnall and Porter due back, plus add Sterry back in, I like think we'd have beaten teams who aren't in the play-off picture. Saying that, playing ok and still losing is ominous.

March has looked like the make or break month for us for ages now. FGR, Stevenage, Newport and Barnet all to play... anything less than 7 points and we'll definitely be taking it to the final day.

 

[valefan16]

If we do go down, we will be in an ok place in terms of Aspin knowing the division inside out. Pope I expect would stay being Vale through and through and would likely want to bring us back... keeping Worrall would help as he is under contract but guess it depends who would want out.

Issue would be finance and ownership, we've got a £2 Million quid windfall from Hugill which came in at 11PM on deadline day so would largely depend if this was used towards a new Tesla for Smurf or sustaining the budget.

 

[Davidimp]

Things are grim for us. My only hope to cling onto is that we'll somehow cobble together enough unexpected wins (which would be any of them) to overtake a side who sinks like a stone.

It's perfectly possible that the low 40s will be enough to stay up points-wise.

The problem is that we appear devoid of hunger for the fight. Theoretically despite injuries I do believe the squad is good enough but Jack simply isn't getting anything like a tune out of them.

We stayed up with 46 but went down with 47 and 48, it's bloody tough down there an all! Wrexham have been trying for years to get back.

 

[AdamStag]

We stayed up with 46 but went down with 47 and 48, it's bloody tough down there an all! Wrexham have been trying for years to get back.

We went down with 42. The other season you could have survived on 35

 

[GTFCfish]

The year we've went down we went 25 league games without a win and still somehow took it to the final game and I think most of us honestly believed we'd stay up as Barnet we're playing Champions Rochdale and we were at mid table Burton with supposedly nothing to play for.
So had we won and Barnet not won we'd have been safe.
What we didn't realise was just how shit we were and we lost 3-0 and it mattered not anyway as Rochdale went to Barnet and just gave up, remember at the time Keith Hill apologised to us for their attitude on that day but obviously didn't matter as we got pummelled by Burton anyway.
Yeah, that final day went really well.

 

[BeesKnees]

We have a couple of tough games coming up with Wycombe and Luton, but after that we finish with 7 teams in the bottom half.

I'm looking forward to relegation. Having won the conference three times it doesn't hold any fear. Its nice seeing your team win a few once in a while, chance of playoffs and a run in the trophy beckon.

That new away stand is going to be a total waste of space though.

 

[Davidimp]

We have a couple of tough games coming up with Wycombe and Luton, but after that we finish with 7 teams in the bottom half.

I'm looking forward to relegation. Having won the conference three times it doesn't hold any fear. Its nice seeing your team win a few once in a while, chance of playoffs and a run in the trophy beckon.

That new away stand is going to be a total waste of space though.

I'm sure boring wood will pack it out....

 

[AdamStag]

We have a couple of tough games coming up with Wycombe and Luton, but after that we finish with 7 teams in the bottom half.

I'm looking forward to relegation. Having won the conference three times it doesn't hold any fear. Its nice seeing your team win a few once in a while, chance of playoffs and a run in the trophy beckon.

That new away stand is going to be a total waste of space though.

Leyton Orient and Chesterfield should have decent followings to you should you go down

 

[BeesKnees]

I'm sure boring wood will pack it out....

An away game at a ground that's closer to Barnet than the Hive is going to be a strange event.