Relegation Thread 2017/18

[Buxton Vale]

Very pleased with the 4 pts over Easter. I think we are safe now.

 

[OneDecentLester]

Our games in hand are:

Morecambe A
Exeter A
Newport H

Realistically from those games, we should be aiming for atleast 4 points from them games, if we can get 5 or even 7 then I'd be very happy with that return!

Some are suggesting that the game on Saturday against grimsby is the biggest in our history, and I'm inclined to agree! The psychological advantage it would give us if we can get the 3 points will be massive! We cannot afford to lose otherwise I think that's us done

 

[JJ1532]

51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 -
48 -
47 - Safety 2017
46 -
45 - Safety 2012, Yeovil(38)
44 - Crewe(41)
43 - Port Vale(41)
42 - Safety 2015 Predicted Safety 17-18, Morecambe(39)
41 -
40 - Forest Green(40)
39 -
38 - Grimsby(41)
37 -
36 -
35 - Safety 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
34 - Chesterfield(38)
33 - Barnet(41)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Yeovil(38) - 45 points. Luton(H), Swindon(A), Wycombe(H), Accrington(A), Notts County(A), Forest Green(H), Mansfield(H), Lincoln(A)
18th Crewe(41) - 44 points. Mansfield(A), Luton(A), Morecambe(H), Crawley(A), Cheltenham(H)
19th Port Vale(41) - 43 points. Crawley(H), Lincoln(H), Mansfield(A), Carlisle(H), Cambridge(A)
20th Morecambe(39) - 42 points. Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Carlisle(H), Crewe(A), Barnet(H), Coventry(A), Cambridge(H) TBA
21st Forest Green(40) - 40 points. Barnet(A), Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Yeovil(A), Luton(A),Grimsby(H)
22nd Grimsby(41) - 38 points. Chesterfield(H), Barnet(H), Swindon(A), Notts County(H), Forest Green(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Chesterfield(38) - 34 points. Grimsby(A), Morecambe(A), Mansfield(H), Exeter(A), Forest Green(A), Wycombe(H), Barnet(A), Newport(H) TBA
24th Barnet(41) - 33 points. Forest Green(H), Grimsby(A), Newport(H), Morecambe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Working from the top, Yeovil make light work of the start of their run in with a demolition of Coventry at the Ricoh. Quite where that came from, who knows. But that win should see them safe, maybe one more to be sure. Crewe only manage 1 point from games against Barnet and Port Vale, but with the safety net we've built up, we still should be fine. Like Yeovil, need another win to secure it.

Port Vale move up a place, they'll be gutted to let a 2-1 lead slip late on against Crewe, but 4 points from the Easter period should be enough for them. Got some tricky games coming up though, so not done just yet. Morecambe see their game washed out, they too should be safe, but this back log might cause issues if they start losing games. That home game with Chesterfield looks big, avoid defeat in that one and they aren't getting caught.

Forest Green are seeing the defeats pile up lately. Losing form at the wrong time. Lose to Barnet next week and they are huge trouble. Grimsby's worries pile up, looks like a spirited showing at Wycombe, but they blow a lead and come up short yet again. Their future rests entirely on their next 2, probably need to win both given Chesterfield's games in hand.

Chesterfield too see their game rained out. What a massive next 2 they have, is next Saturday a must win? Barnet waste their win on Friday by getting spanked 4-1 at Stevenage. Need 4 points as a minimum from their next 2 you'd have thought.

Crazy how the 6 pointers keep coming next weekend. Barnet v Forest Green and Grimsby v Chesterfield, the bottom 4 all play each other.

 

[PaulHaddock]

Winner takes all on Saturday. And I have a feeling I know who’ll win it. Even a draw gives Chesterfield a massive advantage.

 

[darren gregory]

Can't look beyond Grimsby myself. For us to meet McKeown on a worldie day and concede a last minute goal was a sickener but the new manager seems to of made little difference.
Fantastic game for us this weekend as any of the three results isn't disastrous.
Think we ought to get a point at home to Crawley.
Going to be some humdinger and maybe a pivotal moment.

 

[valefan16]

Point Saturday probably does it for us, win almost certainly would. Win coupled with Grimsby losing would mean they would need to win 3 of 4 to overhaul us so would be ideal for us.

 

[darren gregory]

51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 -
48 -
47 - Safety 2017
46 -
45 - Safety 2012, Yeovil(38)
44 - Crewe(41)
43 - Port Vale(41)
42 - Safety 2015 Predicted Safety 17-18, Morecambe(39)
41 -
40 - Forest Green(40)
39 -
38 - Grimsby(41)
37 -
36 -
35 - Safety 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
34 - Chesterfield(38)
33 - Barnet(41)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Yeovil(38) - 45 points. Luton(H), Swindon(A), Wycombe(H), Accrington(A), Notts County(A), Forest Green(H), Mansfield(H), Lincoln(A)
18th Crewe(41) - 44 points. Mansfield(A), Luton(A), Morecambe(H), Crawley(A), Cheltenham(H)
19th Port Vale(41) - 43 points. Crawley(H), Lincoln(H), Mansfield(A), Carlisle(H), Cambridge(A)
20th Morecambe(39) - 42 points. Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Carlisle(H), Crewe(A), Barnet(H), Coventry(A), Cambridge(H) TBA
21st Forest Green(40) - 40 points. Barnet(A), Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Yeovil(A), Luton(A),Grimsby(H)
22nd Grimsby(41) - 38 points. Chesterfield(H), Barnet(H), Swindon(A), Notts County(H), Forest Green(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Chesterfield(38) - 34 points. Grimsby(A), Morecambe(A), Mansfield(H), Exeter(A), Forest Green(A), Wycombe(H), Barnet(A), Newport(H) TBA
24th Barnet(41) - 33 points. Forest Green(H), Grimsby(A), Newport(H), Morecambe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Working from the top, Yeovil make light work of the start of their run in with a demolition of Coventry at the Ricoh. Quite where that came from, who knows. But that win should see them safe, maybe one more to be sure. Crewe only manage 1 point from games against Barnet and Port Vale, but with the safety net we've built up, we still should be fine. Like Yeovil, need another win to secure it.

Port Vale move up a place, they'll be gutted to let a 2-1 lead slip late on against Crewe, but 4 points from the Easter period should be enough for them. Got some tricky games coming up though, so not done just yet. Morecambe see their game washed out, they too should be safe, but this back log might cause issues if they start losing games. That home game with Chesterfield looks big, avoid defeat in that one and they aren't getting caught.

Forest Green are seeing the defeats pile up lately. Losing form at the wrong time. Lose to Barnet next week and they are huge trouble. Grimsby's worries pile up, looks like a spirited showing at Wycombe, but they blow a lead and come up short yet again. Their future rests entirely on their next 2, probably need to win both given Chesterfield's games in hand.

Chesterfield too see their game rained out. What a massive next 2 they have, is next Saturday a must win? Barnet waste their win on Friday by getting spanked 4-1 at Stevenage. Need 4 points as a minimum from their next 2 you'd have thought.

Crazy how the 6 pointers keep coming next weekend. Barnet v Forest Green and Grimsby v Chesterfield, the bottom 4 all play each other.

It's good of you to do this JJ but your analysis of yourselves and us doesn't add up bearing we are only a point apart.
You on one hand have built up a safety net, but we are not done yet.
Slight anti Vale bias there .

 

[George Reilly's Hairpiece]

If Grimsby beat Chesterfield then we are done, as I can't see us winning at Grimsby after our last two away performances. But we'll probably beat Forest Green and Chesterfield beat Grimsby to draw it out to the inevitable relegation on the final day.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Since the move to 2 up, 2 down in 2002-03, after 41 games, every side who were 7 or more points clear of the relegation zone survived the drop.

2005-06 when Oxford were 6 points clear of Torquay and 2010-11 when Lincoln were 5 points clear of Barnet are the biggest gaps to be overhauled I believe.

I know Chesterfield having 3 games in hand distorts this slightly, but barring a miracle from them, you think it's between the bottom 5 now. The likes of us, Yeovil and Vale will surely see out the job. If Morecambe were to beat Chesterfield next week it's a free for all between the bottom 4 in my opinion...

 

[valefan16]

Since the move to 2 up, 2 down in 2002-03, after 41 games, every side who were 7 or more points clear of the relegation zone survived the drop.

2005-06 when Oxford were 6 points clear of Torquay and 2010-11 when Lincoln were 5 points clear of Barnet are the biggest gaps to be overhauled I believe.

I know Chesterfield having 3 games in hand distorts this slightly, but barring a miracle from them, you think it's between the bottom 5 now. The likes of us, Yeovil and Vale will surely see out the job. If Morecambe were to beat Chesterfield next week it's a free for all between the bottom 4 in my opinion...

Hope your right! If we can see Crawley off tomorrow then I will start to breath much more easier mind. Plus side is the bottom 4 are in a lot of games against each other so points will be dropped all over the place there (and you know both sides will be at it rather than against a mid table side who are on the beach!)

 

[Andy Proctor]

There was some predictor thing on the sentinel website the other day. I decided to just put vale losing all there remaining games to see what happens and based on the other results i predicted vale would still finish 4th from bottom losing every game had barnet down and chesterfield down too.

 

[valefan16]

There was some predictor thing on the sentinel website the other day. I decided to just put vale losing all there remaining games to see what happens and based on the other results i predicted vale would still finish 4th from bottom losing every game had barnet down and chesterfield down too.

I did it and although didn’t have us to lose all games i had Grimsby and Barnet on 42 and 43 points which with goal difference would keep us up!

 

[Randolph Haggerty]

I did the same Andy, but Barnet and Grimsby to drop.
The Grimsby v chesterfield game tomorrow is huge.

 

[Vale park Josh]

One win for the Vale should be enough. Really interested in the Grimsby v Chesterfield match....real nail biter.

 

[valefan16]

Not sure which result would be best for us of them two! I guess a Vale win coupled with a Chesterfield win would be best as that means Grimsby need 3 wins from 4?

 

[BeesKnees]

A win, but probably just prolongs the agony.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

A win, but probably just prolongs the agony.

Shares the pain though, now we're right back in it.

 

[BeesKnees]

Shares the pain though, now we're right back in it.

I can't decide if Grimsby winning is a good or bad thing for us. Those three games in hand for Chesterfield mean you have to assume they will pick up a couple more points than most sides.

We have Grimsby, Morecambe and Chesterfield still to play. All must win games but if we pull it off then there is every possibility of overtaking one of the 5 sides from Yeovil down.

 

[GTFCfish]

I'm still in shock to be honest, I'd forgotten what it felt like to win.

 

[BeesKnees]

My prediction going into the last day
Grimsby 44
FGR 43
Barnet 42
Chesterfield 41

Grimsby needing a draw at FGR to guarantee safety. Winner between Barnet and Chesterfield staying up. FGR stay up if they win or Barnet v Chesterfield ends in a draw.

Very small chance that Morecambe or Port vale fail to win another game and therefore get involved.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

We'll be all right, we're going to beat Luton and Cheltenham away

 

[PaulHaddock]

The Barnet game is the second decider. We’ve passed the first one (just) and I have a feeling Barnet will be a lot tougher and we still can’t score. Win this and we’re safe. Lose, and we’re right back in it.

Edit: Saying that, a draw wouldn’t be a total disaster. Would leave us 5 points clear with 3 left to play.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

That's our safety well and truly confirmed barring some absolute sorcery with our 4-3 win at Mansfield today. Depending on what happens to Morecambe in the next two weeks, they could be coming to our place in dire need of a win so things could be interesting there.

Chesterfield's fate still in their own hands despite two damaging defeats in a week but if they lose to Morecambe on Tuesday they're going into a huge game with Mansfield right on edge. Grimsby win next week and that's them in the league next season (don't fuck it up Mariners, anything to get that shitstain Martin Allen out of league football). Vegans have an interesting last few games that could see them take a slide down the league. I can see Morecambe winning on Tuesday which will set them up nicely for another season at this level. Vale and above are fine as I see it.

I'd love Barnet and Forest Green to drop, but the head reckons Chesterfield and Forest Green to drop. Allen to perform major shithousery and keep them up, get offered a new contract only to leave for someone like Cambridge who have more resources and a higher wage budget before he's inevitably sacked for arguing with the Chairman and back at Barnet in 12 months time to do it all again...

 

[Urban]

You really don't like MA do you? You keep it well hidden...

 

[BeesKnees]

The Barnet game is the second decider. We’ve passed the first one (just) and I have a feeling Barnet will be a lot tougher and we still can’t score. Win this and we’re safe. Lose, and we’re right back in it.

My prediction above is based on you winning next weekend but then losing to Notts County and Swindon so I'm not convinced a victory will make you safe.

 

[BelizeHatter]

I can't decide if Grimsby winning is a good or bad thing for us. Those three games in hand for Chesterfield mean you have to assume they will pick up a couple more points than most sides.

We have Grimsby, Morecambe and Chesterfield still to play. All must win games but if we pull it off then there is every possibility of overtaking one of the 5 sides from Yeovil down.

Has to be bad. You dont seriously expect to close a Nine point gap in four games do you? A four point gap to FGR will be tough

 

[PaulHaddock]

My prediction above is based on you winning next weekend but then losing to Notts County and Swindon so I'm not convinced a victory will make you safe.

On the flip side, I can’t see you beating both Newport AND Morecambe so who can say?

 

[BeesKnees]

Has to be bad. You dont seriously expect to close a Nine point gap in four games do you? A four point gap to FGR will be tough

It's a slim possibility with the remaining fixtures the way they are but winning 2 out of Grimsby, Morecambe and Newport is a possibility which would see us needing a result at home against chesterfield on the last day.

 

[springerbfc]

We won’t beat Morecambe or Grimsby. Would also be surprised if we won both home games.

5 or 6 points is probably the most we can pick up from our remaining games - meaning 11 or 12 from 8 games for Allen, which is highly commendable.

We will need Grimsby or FGR to pretty much lose every game, and Chesterfield to struggle with games in hand. Still highly unlikely.

 

[GTFCfish]

Now we’ve got the monkey off our back and finally won a game I would expect us to beat Barnet next week, that’s as long as Akinde pen doesn’t do his usual against us.