The Bolton (Promotion) Thread 2020/21

[chipmunx]

L2 seems a closer league than usual this season. There doesn't seem to be a big gulf between the top placed sides and the rest, while the early stragglers like Stevenage and Southend have pulled themselves back into things rather than being hopelessly adrift at the bottom.

Being unable to go to any live games to date has dampened my enthusiasm for the game so watched few general L2 highlights shows, while whenever I've paid the tenner to watch Rovers Ifollow away, it hasn't worked, so largely given up on that option. Hence only really capable of expressing an opinion on the basis of about 8 home games. Walsall the best side at Prenton Park so far, with honourable mentions for Cheltenham and Carlisle.

I think that Rovers current squad, used correctly, is actually better than the one we finished in L1 with last season and if we were to get back up and keep the same personnel, I'd be fairly confident we'd stay-up. It's the getting there which is the big challenge and on recent form, am not that hopeful.

that's the thing about the league this season - can't comment on other season's as the last time we were here was 1972......
But 2 of the 3 teams you found be be good were not that good against us;-
Carlisle were good - but we put in probably our worst performance of the season.
Walsall were nothing special and scrapped a 2-2 draw with 2 Lavery goals.
And Cheltenham were awful - got beat 3-0 and could have lost by double that.

I've watched every match home and away (apart from Crawley and Port Vale) and the best sides have probably been Carlisle, FGR and Tranmere (until we equalised and went down to 10 men - then they were tactically inept).

 

[Boz]

Dont get this wrong Boz, but i see Tranmere as a ageing team if you dont get up this season you may get in a rut

You may be right, certainly our bigger names are well into their 30s, but on what's been seen so far the likes of Clarke, Vaughan and Spearing look capable of playing on for another season.

 

[Boz]

that's the thing about the league this season - can't comment on other season's as the last time we were here was 1972......
But 2 of the 3 teams you found be be good were not that good against us;-
Carlisle were good - but we put in probably our worst performance of the season.
Walsall were nothing special and scrapped a 2-2 draw with 2 Lavery goals.
And Cheltenham were awful - got beat 3-0 and could have lost by double that.

I've watched every match home and away (apart from Crawley and Port Vale) and the best sides have probably been Carlisle, FGR and Tranmere (until we equalised and went down to 10 men - then they were tactically inept).

Fair enough. You've got the enthusiasm that goes with your team returning to the FL after a long absence and want to catch as much action as you can, so better placed to comment than me. Carlisle and Walsall adopted a similar tactical approach against us, which Walsall executed better as they were clinical with the chances they got. Cheltenham were up against an ultra-defensive Mike Jackson team, so while they were better than us, harder to call if the outcome was down to how good they were or how poor Rovers played.

 

[dedwardp]

League Two has always been the most even league out of any in England. The gap from top to bottom is at its narrowest in any of the Top 5 leagues. Fans who often say it's a shit league usually support underachieving sides who were promotion favourites in the Summer.

That said, I do think there was a big gap in quality between ourselves, Swindon, Plymouth and the rest of the league last season. Had the season played out I couldn't have seen any of us blowing it. There's definitely no standout sides in the league this season, even at the halfway stage. But it makes for a very interesting spectacle as a neutral!

I think Cheltenham would have made the top three if the season had carried on.

 

[Si Robin]

So do I.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

I strongly disagree Cheltenham would've made it. We were winning every game at home and the only two games we lost since Boxing Day were to Swindon and Plymouth, both away. Swindon had the easiest run in of anyone in the Top 7 having played all but one of the top sides and Plymouth were free scoring and in excellent form. When we played Cheltenham they struck me as a very good side defensively but just didn't have the goals any of the Top 3 had.

The thing that separated the Top 3 from the likes of Cheltenham, Exeter and Colchester was the fact the Top 3 knew how to win tight games with their firepower, the other sides were also hard to beat but just drew more games. Colchester and Cheltenham struck me as very defensive when they played us whereas Exeter were incredibly wasteful up top which probably cost them promotion when you look at it in the long run.

 

[Alain]

we stuffed Exeter again for promotion as we have over the seasons -

 

[shoddycollins]

You lot are not listening/reading what i am saying i am only saying this season, other seasons the may be teams who are better than lge 2 and take to lge 1.....I am saying this year only

You don't really have anything to base that off though. I doubt you've paid that much attention to L2 before this season so I'm not seeing how you think you know what the standard was like.

In the time that we've been down here the top three are usually good teams but playoff winners can be a mixed bag, like Tranmere coming from nowhere the season following promotion back into the league and winning the playoffs only to come straight back down. They weren't that great a team despite their late surge and struggled in League One.

The other team that come to mind who won automatic promotion but who I thought were pretty average were MK Dons.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

You don't really have anything to base that off though. I doubt you've paid that much attention to L2 before this season so I'm not seeing how you think you know what the standard was like.

In the time that we've been down here the top three are usually good teams but playoff winners can be a mixed bag, like Tranmere coming from nowhere the season following promotion back into the league and winning the playoffs only to come straight back down. They weren't that great a team despite their late surge and struggled in League One.

The other team that come to mind who won automatic promotion but who I thought were pretty average were MK Dons.

Northampton last season in a way. Had the season come to a conclusion I reckon they wouldn't have made it. Were far too inconsistent, lost a lot of games. But turned on the jets in the playoffs to win them. Doesn't surprise me they're struggling at the higher level though.

 

[Si Robin]

I strongly disagree Cheltenham would've made it. We were winning every game at home and the only two games we lost since Boxing Day were to Swindon and Plymouth, both away. Swindon had the easiest run in of anyone in the Top 7 having played all but one of the top sides and Plymouth were free scoring and in excellent form. When we played Cheltenham they struck me as a very good side defensively but just didn't have the goals any of the Top 3 had.

The thing that separated the Top 3 from the likes of Cheltenham, Exeter and Colchester was the fact the Top 3 knew how to win tight games with their firepower, the other sides were also hard to beat but just drew more games. Colchester and Cheltenham struck me as very defensive when they played us whereas Exeter were incredibly wasteful up top which probably cost them promotion when you look at it in the long run.

But that's entirely the point, you're judging it on the games you saw. It's clearly one of those unanswerables, my bias says we'd have caught one of Crewe or Plymouth (I think Swindon were the best team over the season).

We had lost 1 in 8 (to Crewe) and weren't conceding goals. It really felt like we were destined to make the top 3. Our only really tough games to go was Exeter at home (where we were unstoppable by that point), FGR away (whilst they beat us at Whaddon Road, we haven't lost to them at the New Lawn in a league game) and Swindon away (even their fans will tell you how big a bogey team we are to them).

 

[Devon_Lad]

The idea this year the standard in league 2 is lower than normal doesn't stack up. We have a stronger team than last year, and we're lower down the table.

Comparing last seasons promotion sides isn't really a fair crack either, considering they were promoted without actually doing enough to be promoted. Swindon and Northampton may never have been promoted if the season actually played out.

 

[Devon_Lad]

League Two has always been the most even league out of any in England. The gap from top to bottom is at its narrowest in any of the Top 5 leagues. Fans who often say it's a shit league usually support underachieving sides who were promotion favourites in the Summer.

That said, I do think there was a big gap in quality between ourselves, Swindon, Plymouth and the rest of the league last season. Had the season played out I couldn't have seen any of us blowing it. There's definitely no standout sides in the league this season, even at the halfway stage. But it makes for a very interesting spectacle as a neutral!

Plymouth literally overtook us on PPG because they had 2 home games in a row and we had 2 tough away games just before the season went to PPG IIRC - If the season finished 7 days earlier we would've been promoted. Both ourselves and Cheltenham could've easily gone up automatically.

 

[Indian Dan]

It’s a natural reaction. When your own team is doing shite you then say ALL the other teams are shite as well. You’ve accepted your team is going nowhere so you knock the standard of the others.

Just because a couple of unfancied teams are doing well doesn’t make the rest automatically crap. All those knocking around the POs last season are thereabouts again this year. Maybe the salary cap has evened out the standard a bit.

 

[Devon_Lad]

But that's entirely the point, you're judging it on the games you saw. It's clearly one of those unanswerables, my bias says we'd have caught one of Crewe or Plymouth (I think Swindon were the best team over the season).

We had lost 1 in 8 (to Crewe) and weren't conceding goals. It really felt like we were destined to make the top 3. Our only really tough games to go was Exeter at home (where we were unstoppable by that point), FGR away (whilst they beat us at Whaddon Road, we haven't lost to them at the New Lawn in a league game) and Swindon away (even their fans will tell you how big a bogey team we are to them).

You were definitely on good form, but good form doesn't always last for the remainder of the season. I always said PPG was an awful way of doing it. Both yourselves and ourselves could've got promoted automatically.

You finished above on ppg but there were many alternatives that would've put us above you - For example, you mention your home form being incredible, but if we weighted it on home and away games:

City have 2.05 points per home game, 1.47 away.

Cheltenham have 2.1 home, 1.4 away.

If my maths is right then taken like this, City's average is 1.76; Cheltenham's is 1.75.

Plus

These are the PPG stats on equal games played up to 36 games (the amount you had played).
Games 1 to 13 we were ahead on PPG against you
Games 14 to 15 behind
Game 16 level
Games 17 to 18 behind
Games 19 to 36 ahead

So on equal games played we were ahead of you on PPG for 31 games
You were ahead of us for 4 and level for 1

Our last two games were home to Crewe which we drew, and we also lost to a very inform Walsall away from home. Plymouth's last 2 games were both home against relatively easy sides and had more away games than us left.

The entire end of season and it how finished was a joke. Reality is, the season was still up for grabs for many teams. There were over 30 points left to play for. So I don't think you can fairly judge the promoted sides in league 1 this season, as none of them may have been there.

 

[Indian Dan]

Well, it won’t be on ppg this season - just abandoned.

 

[shoddycollins]

Well, it won’t be on ppg this season - just abandoned.

Doubt it'll be abandoned again. I think we've learned better how to manage the coronavirus risk, and while the government are saying kids still have to go to school and people still have to go to work, I don't see how footballers are different from say an open office with tens of people in it.

 

[Grumpy Grecian]

I think what Laddie is trying to say is that, for Exeter as well as Cheltenham, the way the season ended was a load of cobblers.

 

[Devon_Lad]

What I'm trying to say is the ppg table didn't reflect a fair table, and it is very unlikely it would've actually finished like that. Suggesting League 2 teams struggle when they get promoted, based solely on teams from league 2 that got promoted last season is a bit silly. None of them may have actually been promoted if the season played out.

 

[E10rifle]

If for instance Crawley go up can they afford another 1m extra on Salaries only to come back down again
You can add Newport, Orient,FGR and Carlisle to that list

Yeah, how on earth will any of us be able to compete financially with Rochdale, Accrington and Northampton?!

 

[Casey]

I think the quality may have been affected by the curtailed pre season.

But I could be wrong.

Casey

 

[northstandexile]

Surely instead of ppg, they should have done the table on xG figures Instead.

 

[valefan16]

It’s hard to judge last season for me as we generally beat all the top sides and lost to the bottom so to me the table was upside down!

Cheltenham were flying at the time so may well have caught Crewe or Plymouth over the final run in. Swindon away we’re by far the best side I saw last season. Even when we beat them at home they looked far more accomplished than anyone else.

Crewe and Plymouth we only played once and beat both so didn’t see the best of either to really make a full opinion.

The play off race was getting interesting with us, Cobblers and Colchester swapping the two out of three places over the previous 3 or 4 weeks. We were on a good run, had been in there the week before, Northampton after we beat them in Feb went on a bad run and believe they had a horror run in of fixtures with most of the top teams so went up but may well have finished well outside. Think Salford had started sneaking up too.

This year it’s different but you haven’t got fans so that has an effect. Would Bradford have been so poor with 10-12k behind them at home? Would our home form be so bad this year with the fans behind them? Games like Scunthorpe and Harrogate where we just struggled to break them down?

Bolton for instance with fans backing them. I mean we went to Bradford and got a point in our form with a comfortable clean sheet. Not as easy to do with their fans behind the goal.

So this year has made it a different game. Probably benefits some of the lesser supported clubs.

 

[FGR Stroud]

So this year has made it a different game. Probably benefits some of the lesser supported clubs.

Not so.
FGR, one of the lesser supported clubs, won both home games with supporter's present BUT lost next game when no fans were in stadium.

 

[Carver]

Yeah, how on earth will any of us be able to compete financially with Rochdale, Accrington and Northampton?!

I know man, what a clueless shite talking numpty that Masi fella is.

He'd better not disrespect and talk down on my club again the little bellend.

 

[shoddycollins]

Not so.
FGR, one of the lesser supported clubs, won both home games with supporter's present BUT lost next game when no fans were in stadium.

Yes, I think 2,000 or 10,000 it doesn't really matter to players how many of their own fans are in the stadium... having more fans doesn't necessarily mean they're better at motivating players. We probably benefited early on in the season from having no fans in as we didn't start the season well and Beech may have been under pressure to change the system. There was a sense, which the commentary team for BBCRC picked up on, that Beech was persevering with a system that hadn't worked in the first handful of games, confident that it would come good when the team gelled.

 

[shoddycollins]

Time perhaps (or maybe I just want to becuase we're top) to start representing the promotion race like this. We're not quite at the half-way stage but we aren't far off, and it's still to early for the average promotion points totals to start appearing and I've included the whole table since it's still too close to decide where the cut-off point should be.

39 Carlisle*
38 Newport**
37 FGR*
36
35 Cheltenham*
34 Cambridge* Crawley Morecambe**
33 Salford** Orient
32
31 Exeter***
30 Walsall
29 Colchester*
28 Tranmere**
27 Oldham*
26 Bolton*
25 Harrogate** Vale
24 Bradford*
23 Mansfield* Scunthorpe*
22
21
20 Barrow* Stevenage** Grimsby
19
18
17
16 Southend**

asterisks indicate games in hand over those teams who have played 22 games. Very few gaps, indeed over the whole table, teams are separated by an average of less than a point (23 points separate 24 teams).

 

[GTFCfish]

The Bolton team that finished bottom of lge 1 last season would put 4/5 past this Bolton team week in week out

I think if both of those teams played each other they’d somehow both find a way to lose.

 

[GTFCfish]

Just reading the last couple of pages of this thread about the quality of the league this season, I’ve seen nobody so far that’s anywhere near the quality of the Crewe and Swindon teams of last season that demolished us. Obviously I can only gauge that on the one game against us but so far no team has been anywhere near either of those two, I’d say Exeter looked the most impressive to me of all the teams around the top 7.

 

[masi51]

I think if both of those teams played each other they’d somehow both find a way to lose.

In what Decade have you actually beat us !!!

 

[GTFCfish]

In what Decade have you actually beat us !!!

Last time was 1982, why do you ask?