The Coalition of Expensive Chaos

[Vanni]

Do you even know what multi means Johnny mate?

 

[Abertawe]

Not good news for most of us, obviously. Will the government do something to help people struggling? May's actions aren't matching the rhetoric. Instead we'll no doubt get more focus and unsettling rhetoric on immigration, rather than looking for genuine solutions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

Tried discussing this earlier in the summer. The new forecast doesn't come as a surprise, this was & still is purposeful. The recession was an excuse to redistribute wealth. In the same period the economy returned to pre recession levels yet working conditions & wages of the working class worsened.

We have a bargain basement economy dependent on low skilled service jobs that will soon be replaced upon the onset of big data & the internet of things. We need an investment programme like never before. For those with young uns you've got a such an important job guiding them into a career that will either remain unaffected by 4.0 (lawyer, doctor etc) or will grow & be sustainable as a result (engineer, programmer). It pains me to say it but not being professionally qualified or having a sustainable craft won't be pretty. The menial low paid jobs that we have now (call centre, pickers, retail) are the ones volatile to poor wage growth and they will gradually be dissolved to the bare bones as a result of 4.0. There are calls for a universal income but even if implemented it's not exactly going to be 'the good life'. This why more than ever we need a government to actually represent and act on behalf of the majority because if it's left to the current cronies shits gonna get grim for a lot of people.

 

[Aber gas]

Not good news for most of us, obviously. Will the government do something to help people struggling? May's actions aren't matching the rhetoric. Instead we'll no doubt get more focus and unsettling rhetoric on immigration, rather than looking for genuine solutions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

The immigration lies won't work for much longer. There aren't enough scapegoats left. There are only so many lies that people will put up with. The credulous will of course continue to believe that "austerity" is necessary and wages are pushed down by immigration despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. We can only hope that the lies told by a right wing press and a increasingly desperate government continue to be undermined. Time to organise, fight and get the alternative message out there.

 

[Renegade]

Tried discussing this earlier in the summer. The new forecast doesn't come as a surprise, this was & still is purposeful. The recession was an excuse to redistribute wealth. In the same period the economy returned to pre recession levels yet working conditions & wages of the working class worsened.

We have a bargain basement economy dependent on low skilled service jobs that will soon be replaced upon the onset of big data & the internet of things. We need an investment programme like never before. For those with young uns you've got a such an important job guiding them into a career that will either remain unaffected by 4.0 (lawyer, doctor etc) or will grow & be sustainable as a result (engineer, programmer). It pains me to say it but not being professionally qualified or having a sustainable craft won't be pretty. The menial low paid jobs that we have now (call centre, pickers, retail) are the ones volatile to poor wage growth and they will gradually be dissolved to the bare bones as a result of 4.0. There are calls for a universal income but even if implemented it's not exactly going to be 'the good life'. This why more than ever we need a government to actually represent and act on behalf of the majority because if it's left to the current cronies shits gonna get grim for a lot of people.

I don't think any current career is immune to the AI revolution - there is nothing to suggest that the majority of processes undertaken by lawyers or doctors won't eventually be emulated or even improved by machines. The human touch may always be required for some doctors (empathy for dealing with patients, judgement calls if the AI comes back with multiple diagnoses for a patient), but the workforce could be cut down significantly if (and when) there are machines that can use big-data for super-human ability to diagnose patients (IBM's Watson is already out-diagnosing humans in some areas and it wasn't even designed for that purpose), administer medicine and when machines will be able to perform intricate surgeries that eradicate human error. Removing most lawyers would be a less complex task for AI developers I assume.

We should perhaps push the next generation in the direction of fields that are likely to last the longest, but in theory eventually everything will be replaceable. We seriously need to rethink how society works and what will happen to us, as this technology just continues to accelerate. Would be nice if we could just hit the stop button when it gets out of hand. Our current economic models won't be able to deal with this for sure.

 

[Jockney]

I don't think any current career is immune to the AI revolution - there is nothing to suggest that the majority of processes undertaken by lawyers or doctors won't eventually be emulated or even improved by machines. The human touch may always be required for some doctors (empathy for dealing with patients, judgement calls if the AI comes back with multiple diagnoses for a patient), but the workforce could be cut down significantly if (and when) there are machines that can use big-data for super-human ability to diagnose patients (IBM's Watson is already out-diagnosing humans in some areas and it wasn't even designed for that purpose), administer medicine and when machines will be able to perform intricate surgeries that eradicate human error. Removing most lawyers would be a less complex task for AI developers I assume.

We should perhaps push the next generation in the direction of fields that are likely to last the longest, but in theory eventually everything will be replaceable. We seriously need to rethink how society works and what will happen to us, as this technology just continues to accelerate. Would be nice if we could just hit the stop button when it gets out of hand. Our current economic models won't be able to deal with this for sure.

The care industry is largely immune to automation and is, I think, the largest growing industry in the country. The machines will also need overseers, so to speak. We can automate a lot of jobs currently, but nothing so close to a wide majority.

A missing component in this discussion so far is probably the most crucial one: who drives the tech and who holds it back. It is cheaper not to automate currently because labour power is so cheap and unions are so weak and this isn't going to change under austerity measures. I think while that while the threat of new tech in a capitalist community always looms large, we shouldn't think of it in terms of a natural evolutionary progression or inevitability. Rather, as Aber hinted at a few posts back, we should be questioning who is pushing for automatisation/robotisation, and asking how its relationship to the traditional worker vis-a-vis implementation should be defined.

 

[Renegade]

The care industry is largely immune to automation and is, I think, the largest growing industry in the country. The machines will also need overseers, so to speak. We can automate a lot of jobs currently, but nothing so close to a wide majority.

A missing component in this discussion so far is probably the most crucial one: who drives the tech and who holds it back. It is cheaper not to automate currently because labour power is so cheap and unions are so weak and this isn't going to change under austerity measures. I think while that while the threat of new tech in a capitalist community always looms large, we shouldn't think of it in terms of a natural evolutionary progression or inevitability. Rather, as Aber hinted at a few posts back, we should be questioning who is pushing for automatisation/robotisation, and asking how its relationship to the traditional worker vis-a-vis implementation should be defined.

Fair points. I do think it's an inevitability as long as tech giants are allowed to continue developing AI, they are the ones pushing everything forward at the moment. With the immense resources they have, they will continue to make traditional human careers redundant unless they are regulated. If we leave it to the market and an AI can do a job better than a human, employers will choose the AI to maximise their profits. Definitely agree with your last point.

Everything I stated wasn't immediate short-term thought, more what might happen in the next century. Still, we should be talking about this far more than we currently are, before it's too late.

 

[Jockney]

Fair points. I do think it's an inevitability as long as tech giants are allowed to continue developing AI, they are the ones pushing everything forward at the moment. With the immense resources they have, they will continue to make traditional human careers redundant unless they are regulated. If we leave it to the market and an AI can do a job better than a human, employers will choose the AI to maximise their profits. Definitely agree with your last point.

Everything I stated wasn't immediate short-term thought, more what might happen in the next century. Still, we should be talking about this far more than we currently are, before it's too late.

Yeah, that was more of an add-on to what you said, I don't disagree with any of that fundamentally. I've still yet to read this...

...but the word on the -often-unreliable- rad-leftist grapevine is that these ideas are going to form a central policy platform for the Labour Party in 2020 if McDonnell, et al, get their way. I imagine we'll hear more towards the end of 2017 after the European elections and further Brexit negotiations. Pure speculation, maybe, but it might explain a lot of the reticence and equivocating in their response to the conditions of our exit

[just repeating myself and not saying much of substance, but needed an excuse to bring attention to that book]

 

[.V.]

Couldn't happen to a nicer man

Lib Dems oust Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486

 

[AFCB_Mark]

He made a hash of the Mayoral election, coming out with plenty of cringeworthy comments. Made a hash of Heathrow and forced himself into a corner. Always a likely result, in an area that is a very liberal/soft tory area.

 

[mowgli]

He made a hash of the Mayoral election, coming out with plenty of cringeworthy comments. Made a hash of Heathrow and forced himself into a corner. Always a likely result, in an area that is a very liberal/soft tory area.

Plus the fact 72% of the constituents voted to remain so it's no surprise. The ferret looking Farron was on the news this morning claiming The Lib Dems are back They don't even have double figures of MP's ffs!

 

[smat]

'Likely' and 'no surprise' don't seem right to me. It was always possible but this IS a surprise. Huge swing, and the Lib Dem candidate isn't even an experienced politician or a known quantity (which perhaps worked in her favour).

What isn't a surprise is that mowgli's post is extremely stupid, but that is only not a surprise because he is an extremely stupid man. This was a by-election, not a re-run of the referendum. Goldsmith won by 7% in 2010 and 40% just last year! Lib Dems winning marginals again is not what the Tories want to see, regardless of whether Richmond is representative of the rest of the UK (which it obviously isn't, by a long way). Pro-Brexit Tory MPs in marginal seats might be worried - how many of them are there?

 

[mowgli]

'Likely' and 'no surprise' don't seem right to me. It was always possible but this IS a surprise. Huge swing, and the Lib Dem candidate isn't even an experienced politician or a known quantity (which perhaps worked in her favour).

What isn't a surprise is that mowgli's post is extremely stupid, but that is only not a surprise because he is an extremely stupid man. This was a by-election, not a re-run of the referendum. Goldsmith won by 7% in 2010 and 40% just last year! Lib Dems winning marginals again is not what the Tories want to see, regardless of whether Richmond is representative of the rest of the UK (which it obviously isn't, by a long way). Pro-Brexit Tory MPs in marginal seats might be worried - how many of them are there?

That's funny as The Lib Dems especially Farron said the by-election would show many leave voters had changed their minds,no idea how he came to that conclusion considering the remain vote was so high in Richmond unlike the rest of England. Ill have you know i am not extremely stupid man as i am much worse than that Your opinion of me means absolutely fuck all to me in the slightest indeed i mighteven use it as a badge of honour.

 

[Abertawe]

'Likely' and 'no surprise' don't seem right to me. It was always possible but this IS a surprise. Huge swing, and the Lib Dem candidate isn't even an experienced politician or a known quantity (which perhaps worked in her favour).

What isn't a surprise is that mowgli's post is extremely stupid, but that is only not a surprise because he is an extremely stupid man. This was a by-election, not a re-run of the referendum. Goldsmith won by 7% in 2010 and 40% just last year! Lib Dems winning marginals again is not what the Tories want to see, regardless of whether Richmond is representative of the rest of the UK (which it obviously isn't, by a long way). Pro-Brexit Tory MPs in marginal seats might be worried - how many of them are there?

How is it a surprise you twonk? Richmond Park is a Liberal Democrat seat since it was drawn up albeit a marginal, Goldsmith to his credit did incredibly well to win it in 2010 hence the slim 7% margin and 2015 was par the course with the Lib Dem collapse. When brexit, heathrow, change of prime minister, Zak Goldsmith being Zak Goldsmith and a worsening government performance all happens in less than a year it's not exactly surprising a natural Lib Dem constituency is won by Lib Dems. It was an impressive result for Lib Dem's (largest ever share of the vote albeit the turnout was low) and better than anticipated so in that sense it was a surprise but the win itself was an easy one to call. You'd have to be some kind of canal boating recluse to not be able to understand that.

 

[Pagnell]

You'd have to be some kind of canal boating recluse to not be able to understand that.

I think you'll find the expression is Boat Dwelling C**t ™ *

* I use it as a term of endearment Smat.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Delighted that Goldsmith has been ousted in my old backyard. It's certainly true to say that this seat has traditionally been a Lib Dem/Tory marginal and that the 2015 general election result was something of an aberration with the Lib Dems at a historical nadir. I also think Goldsmith has made something of a rod for his own back - the mayoral election somewhat ruined his reputation for being a liberal Tory (something which I think played well in this seat) and his pro-Brexit stance was also likely to hinder his chances in a pro-Remain area. However, to say that the result was "likely" or "no surprise" is manifestly absurd and rather strikes me as wishful thinking on the part of Brexiteers. 23k is an enormous majority to overturn in the space of 18 months. Goldsmith had been a popular local MP who should have been able to benefit from a personal vote and the incumbency factor. Of course Richmond Park is atypical but that doesn't mean the result is insignificant - at the very least there's an indication that the Lib Dems are back in play in pro-Remain Tory seats (both in those seats that the party previously held and in those areas where they were formerly competitive before their vote crumbled in 2015). For a party with a very slim majority that poses a problem. The Conservatives would do well to remember that the referendum vote was very close. A lot of people are distinctly unimpressed by their handling of Brexit thus far.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

TPP nails it.

Also, lol Zac Goldsmith.

 

[Abertawe]

Delighted that Goldsmith has been ousted in my old backyard. It's certainly true to say that this seat has traditionally been a Lib Dem/Tory marginal and that the 2015 general election result was something of an aberration with the Lib Dems at a historical nadir. I also think Goldsmith has made something of a rod for his own back - the mayoral election somewhat ruined his reputation for being a liberal Tory (something which I think played well in this seat) and his pro-Brexit stance was also likely to hinder his chances in a pro-Remain area. However, to say that the result was "likely" or "no surprise" is manifestly absurd and rather strikes me as wishful thinking on the part of Brexiteers. 23k is an enormous majority to overturn in the space of 18 months. Goldsmith had been a popular local MP who should have been able to benefit from a personal vote and the incumbency factor. Of course Richmond Park is atypical but that doesn't mean the result is insignificant - at the very least there's an indication that the Lib Dems are back in play in pro-Remain Tory seats (both in those seats that the party previously held and in those areas where they were formerly competitive before their vote crumbled in 2015). For a party with a very slim majority that poses a problem. The Conservatives would do well to remember that the referendum vote was very close. A lot of people are distinctly unimpressed by their handling of Brexit thus far.

You basically explain the reason for the win and then say it's "manifestly absurd" to say the result wasn't a surprise. Bizarre thinking. Pro-remain constituencies with a historical tendency to elect Lib Dem MP's are going to vote Lib Dem when the opportunity arises given the current affairs, I don't see how this is difficult to grasp or why it would come as any surprise.

You do seem to be making a massive error by discounting pro-leave constituencies with a tendency to elect Liberal Democrat MP's though. In 2010 the Lib Dems had MP's elected in a raft of constituencies such as Torbay, Eastleigh, Solihull, North Devon, Yeovil, Eastbourne, Brecon (I'm sure there are more but I can't be bothered sourcing) but lost them to the Tories in 2015. All of the said constituencies I've listed voted to leave, some with big margins too.

Farron was anonymous in the run up to the referendum and a complete coward in the aftermath. Areas that are considered Liberal Democrat marginals shouldn't be voting leave, he escaped the criticism he deserved because of the storm that developed around the attempted ousting of Corbyn. Farron is now acting as an irresponsible twonk when he pronounces his contempt for the referendum result. Not only is he being wholly undemocratic he's harming the electoral potential of his party in the process. Torbay for example are not going to vote Liberal Democrat on the ticket of pro-remain when it voted to leave by a margin of 26% despite the fact prior to 2015 it had voted Lib Dem four elections on the bounce. That opens up the door for Conservatives hold and an increased UKIP voice. The Torbay example will be true of many more constituencies. The responsible thing for Farron to do would be to come out and say he respects the result of the referendum and will work with like minded parties to ensure the 48% have their voices heard in the forging of a United Kingdom post brexit. By acting like a child he's doing a disservice to those Lib Dem areas that hold liberal values but decided that the UK was better outside the EU. His then attempt at 'seizing the centre-ground' is pathetic and will increase the chances of a worst case post-brexit scenario from a Lib Dem perspective.

It would be in both the country and his party interests to accept the result of the referendum and instead of trying to take on Labour form alliances with them in the marginal constituencies to ensure a progressive government. By denying the legitimacy of the referendum result remainers are fueling the fire for those from the right and far right to impose their rhetoric. 2020 will still be very early days of Brexit. It's astonishing that so called centre lefties & those with liberal values act in a manner that serves to increase the chances of the right molding Brexit than the actual left. The right often say that the reason the left fail is because they're too content with whinging from the sidelines, I'd say that's a fair assessment. In the closet Farron is a prime example.

 

[mowgli]

I'm not happy with the result so can we in Farron's world have another vote say best of 3?

 

[NorfolkWomble]

'Likely' and 'no surprise' don't seem right to me. It was always possible but this IS a surprise. Huge swing, and the Lib Dem candidate isn't even an experienced politician or a known quantity (which perhaps worked in her favour).

What isn't a surprise is that mowgli's post is extremely stupid, but that is only not a surprise because he is an extremely stupid man. This was a by-election, not a re-run of the referendum. Goldsmith won by 7% in 2010 and 40% just last year! Lib Dems winning marginals again is not what the Tories want to see, regardless of whether Richmond is representative of the rest of the UK (which it obviously isn't, by a long way). Pro-Brexit Tory MPs in marginal seats might be worried - how many of them are there?

Goldsmith was polling ahead at the start as well. I think Labour MP's in lots of parts of London should be worried. Lib Dems have the potential to take lots of votes from those who want to see a second referendum or at least a soft brexit.

 

[Abertawe]

Goldsmith was polling ahead at the start as well. I think Labour MP's in lots of parts of London should be worried. Lib Dems have the potential to take lots of votes from those who want to see a second referendum or at least a soft brexit.

Which increases the chances of hard brexit.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

Which increases the chances of hard brexit.

How?

 

[smat]

I'm not happy with the result so can we in Farron's world have another vote say best of 3?

Yes there will be a second vote in 2020.

ps I don't mind my post telling Abertawe to fuck off being deleted but I hope the likes I accrued for it are upheld.

 

[Abertawe]

Yes there will be a second vote in 2020.

ps I don't mind my post telling Abertawe to fuck off being deleted but I hope the likes I accrued for it are upheld.

Did you a kipper, so much so you couldn't respond. Anytime you want a schooling on life just let me know.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

Did you a kipper, so much so you couldn't respond. Anytime you want a schooling on life just let me know.

I would love a schooling in life from abertwat.

 

[Abertawe]

How?

Simple mathematics. If Lib Dems take Labour seats that increases the chances of a Tory hold. It's not difficult to grasp. There are plenty of Lib Dem seats that voted leave, you can't gloss over this fact. Farron should concede Brexit and work to make it a success for the liberal values many people in this country hold. Simply appeasing the London spivs will see him concede the rest of the country. Brexit will be put into process before 2020, 2020 will be the election that decides what actually happens post brexit. The Lib bloody Dems aren't going to win an election, even if the majority suddenly decided they wanted to remain they still couldn't win. They should be putting into place post brexit policies but instead they're cheating liberals out of the post brexit picture with their time wasting we demand a second referendum rhetoric. Lib Dems & labour should have an unspoken alliance, not standing in eachothers marginals where the other has no chance of victory. Places like Bolton West for example.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

Simple mathematics. If Lib Dems take Labour seats that increases the chances of a Tory hold. It's not difficult to grasp. There are plenty of Lib Dem seats that voted leave, you can't gloss over this fact. Farron should concede Brexit and work to make it a success for the liberal values many people in this country hold. Simply appeasing the London spivs will see him concede the rest of the country. Brexit will be put into process before 2020, 2020 will be the election that decides what actually happens post brexit. The Lib bloody Dems aren't going to win an election, even if the majority suddenly decided they wanted to remain they still couldn't win. They should be putting into place post brexit policies but instead they're cheating liberals out of the post brexit picture with their time wasting we demand a second referendum rhetoric. Lib Dems & labour should have an unspoken alliance, not standing in eachothers marginals where the other has no chance of victory. Places like Bolton West for example.

Labour aren't doing anything to stop brexit. Lib Dems are more likely to do so.

 

[Abertawe]

Labour aren't doing anything to stop brexit. Lib Dems are more likely to do so.

Brexit won't be stopped. It's possible we'll end up with a very soft brexit but that'll only happen if the Dems start offering policies.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

You basically explain the reason for the win and then say it's "manifestly absurd" to say the result wasn't a surprise. Bizarre thinking. Pro-remain constituencies with a historical tendency to elect Lib Dem MP's are going to vote Lib Dem when the opportunity arises given the current affairs, I don't see how this is difficult to grasp or why it would come as any surprise.

You do seem to be making a massive error by discounting pro-leave constituencies with a tendency to elect Liberal Democrat MP's though. In 2010 the Lib Dems had MP's elected in a raft of constituencies such as Torbay, Eastleigh, Solihull, North Devon, Yeovil, Eastbourne, Brecon (I'm sure there are more but I can't be bothered sourcing) but lost them to the Tories in 2015. All of the said constituencies I've listed voted to leave, some with big margins too.

Farron was anonymous in the run up to the referendum and a complete coward in the aftermath. Areas that are considered Liberal Democrat marginals shouldn't be voting leave, he escaped the criticism he deserved because of the storm that developed around the attempted ousting of Corbyn. Farron is now acting as an irresponsible twonk when he pronounces his contempt for the referendum result. Not only is he being wholly undemocratic he's harming the electoral potential of his party in the process. Torbay for example are not going to vote Liberal Democrat on the ticket of pro-remain when it voted to leave by a margin of 26% despite the fact prior to 2015 it had voted Lib Dem four elections on the bounce. That opens up the door for Conservatives hold and an increased UKIP voice. The Torbay example will be true of many more constituencies. The responsible thing for Farron to do would be to come out and say he respects the result of the referendum and will work with like minded parties to ensure the 48% have their voices heard in the forging of a United Kingdom post brexit. By acting like a child he's doing a disservice to those Lib Dem areas that hold liberal values but decided that the UK was better outside the EU. His then attempt at 'seizing the centre-ground' is pathetic and will increase the chances of a worst case post-brexit scenario from a Lib Dem perspective.

It would be in both the country and his party interests to accept the result of the referendum and instead of trying to take on Labour form alliances with them in the marginal constituencies to ensure a progressive government. By denying the legitimacy of the referendum result remainers are fueling the fire for those from the right and far right to impose their rhetoric. 2020 will still be very early days of Brexit. It's astonishing that so called centre lefties & those with liberal values act in a manner that serves to increase the chances of the right molding Brexit than the actual left. The right often say that the reason the left fail is because they're too content with whinging from the sidelines, I'd say that's a fair assessment. In the closet Farron is a prime example.

And yet not quite as bizarre as your lack of comprehension. I explained why I thought as I did in the following two sentences.

I don't seem to be making a "massive error" as I didn't discuss the Liberal Democrats' electoral prospects in Solihull or Torbay. You're attacking a straw man. A pro-Remain pitch will go down better in South West London than it will in the South West of England (another patch which is traditionally fertile ground for the Lib Dems) - that much is obvious. What you have to remember is that the Lib Dems are rebuilding from a very low base. Starved of the oxygen of publicity the only way they're going to be effective again is through by-election victories such as this. This shows they're resilient, they can rebound, that despite electoral catastrophe they're a viable party who can win seats. Maybe not a great many seats but perhaps enough to become a nuisance. Quite frankly, a pro-Remain pitch is a no-brainer for the Lib Dems. I think there's a tendency to underestimate the strength of feeling among Remainers - it's clearly an issue of high salience, as demonstrated by Richmond Park which was meant to be a referendum on Heathrow and became a vote on Brexit. They're also occupying a position no one else is (fuck knows what Labour's stance is) from a very low base (are very many of the 8% or so people who back them nationally not aware that they're an avowedly pro-EU party? I rather doubt it). Not sure what you're otherwise babbling on about. The Liberal Democrats do respect the result of the referendum. I would have thought that proponents of direct democracy might be in favour of ratifying any deal that the government returned from the negotiating table with...

 

[mnb089mnb]

A high profile Tory like Zac Goldsmith with a 23,000 vote lead being ousted by someone who only joined the Liberal Democrats in July 2015 and whose wikipedia page was only created about a month ago is a huge surprise.

 

[mnb089mnb]

Plus the fact 72% of the constituents voted to remain so it's no surprise. The ferret looking Farron was on the news this morning claiming The Lib Dems are back They don't even have double figures of MP's ffs!

How many do UKIP have?