The playoff thread

[chipmunx]

Braintree are at Barrow next Tuesday - hopefully we'll stop them getting any points - our defence has improved since Sutton came in from Tranmere... and we're top of the form league - If Cox gets manager of the month that might curse us though....

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Braintree are at Barrow next Tuesday - hopefully we'll stop them getting any points - our defence has improved since Sutton came in from Tranmere... and we're top of the form league - If Cox gets manager of the month that might curse us though....

Sutton was a good player, just the wrong type to play with McNulty. Hope you win all your remaining games!

 

[chipmunx]

Sutton was a good player, just the wrong type to play with McNulty. Hope you win all your remaining games!

we are playing him at right back and he's doing a great job.
If you go up via the play offs can we have McNulty back?

 

[Boz]

Any team chasing a play off spot Pablo would surely swap their current fixtures for the set you have had in you recent run though wouldn't they?

Kidderminster, Lincoln, which unlikely as it appeared looked nailed on a 2-2- draw, Guisely, Chester, Gateshead, and as you say FGR and Dover, the last of which as I see all their mid week games, I had the misfortune to go to as it was really poor, and in which to be honest not only would Tranmere not have scored if you had still been playing until today, it appeared as a neutral, that not losing was Mr Brabin's only intention.

What do you have going for you though is your next two games which come at just the right time, six points from those and it will really put the pressure on those beneath you, and many wont be able to handle it, and also on inspection the fixtures of your fellow chasers some of whom could be well out of the play off picture by the time you play them which would suit you even more. Exciting for the neutrals though that's for sure

Your adopted team Dover had an even easier set of fixtures during the same period, only Gateshead and ourselves being play-off contenders. Braintree also faced only two play-off/promotion rivals Cheltenham and Eastleigh both at home. As Monday's results showed, no predictable games at this level.

I listened to the Dover v Rovers fixture on Radio Kent and their perception was that while the hosts were the better side first half, Rovers had their chances in the second. In the reverse fixture, while better players than Miller have cheated to win games, his behaviour in coming off the bench having been subbed to try and start a fight didn't impress. Think I'd rather a James Norwood, wasteful though he is. Payne and Deverdics are quality at this level though.

 

[stupot]

I totally agree Boz, their fixtures were easy, but speaking to their supporters, you still get the impression, even now, that they remain more hopeful than expectant of getting into the play offs whereas with you guys, certainly at the start of the season it was surely and understandably the other way around?
You are also right with the latter two you mention both of whom are really decent players and Dover will do really well to hold on to them. Deverdics will go on a free, Payne am guessing as an U24 player will be subject to a compensation payment, whereas someone will have to pay a fee for Miller. They also have a couple of very good youngsters in Ragget and Magri, who equally could easily be tempted away.

Ground hopping duties for me again this weekend though, with everyone locally playing away, so it looks like I will be visiting Gainsborough or more likely Ferriby

 

[Boz]

Stupot, at the start of the season most Rovers posters on here reckoned we'd be somewhere around the play-off places, where we are now. I'd agree that Dover are punching above their weight and probably didn't expect to do so well, but still in with a good chance of a play-off slot where anything can happen. They were certainly the better team at Prenton Park. Still a few twists and turns in this season yet.

Hope that you get a good game wherever you end up this weekend.

 

[Mark kavanagh]

I Think if we make make the play offs the events of last night could well see us going up on a tidal wave of emotion

 

[EnglishRed]

Big Tuesday again. It looks at the moment like Dover have grabbed 4th with Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham and Eastleigh all gunning for 5th.

I can see Braintree losing at Barrow, could do with Altrincham beating Dover, then if we beat Dover at our place on Saturday then 4th opens up again. Braintree playing FGR and Eastleigh at Grimsby gives me hope they will drop points on the Saturday as well.

 

[LeWhites]

Big Tuesday again. It looks at the moment like Dover have grabbed 4th with Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham and Eastleigh all gunning for 5th.

I can see Braintree losing at Barrow, could do with Altrincham beating Dover, then if we beat Dover at our place on Saturday then 4th opens up again. Braintree playing FGR and Eastleigh at Grimsby gives me hope they will drop points on the Saturday as well.

We've still got Wrexham, Forest Green and Grimsby to play and we looked terrible on Saturday. If we beat Wrexham we'll get a play off place though

 

[fifaking]

We've still got Wrexham, Forest Green and Grimsby to play and we looked terrible on Saturday. If we beat Wrexham we'll get a play off place though

If you beat Alty tomorrow and then avoid defeat against us I think you're pretty much there.

 

[EnglishRed]

I was confident we'd beat Cheltenham and I'm similar confident for the home games against Dover and Braintree. I jut can't see us losing at home at the moment. The away games are going to be critical though. Not least Tranmere away.

 

[stupot]

Do the players sent off Saturday miss the Dover game?
One further point I believe Dover play FGR the last game of the season, which will surely also work in their favour, as FGR will probably be clear in second by that time and with the first leg of the play off semi finals a few days later in you were Pennock wouldn't you be resting a lot of your players in readiness for that match?
I know I would!

 

[LeWhites]

Do the players sent off Saturday miss the Dover game?
One further point I believe Dover play FGR the last game of the season, which will surely also work in their favour, as FGR will probably be clear in second by that time and with the first leg of the play off semi finals a few days later in you were Pennock wouldn't you be resting a lot of your players in readiness for that match?
I know I would!

They might be in with a shout of the title though. If we're 5th and they're guaranteed second they'd let us win because nobody would want to play us in the play offs

 

[chipmunx]

Big Tuesday again. It looks at the moment like Dover have grabbed 4th with Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham and Eastleigh all gunning for 5th.

I can see Braintree losing at Barrow, could do with Altrincham beating Dover, then if we beat Dover at our place on Saturday then 4th opens up again. Braintree playing FGR and Eastleigh at Grimsby gives me hope they will drop points on the Saturday as well.

I hope you're right there - we're unbeaten in 8 now (W5, D3) - we also have Eastleigh away and then final game you at home... If you are in a play off spot but not confirmed how many do you reckon you would bring on the last day?
If we do beat Braintree that will be them, Dover and Eastleigh who we've beaten at home and FGR only drew - so it won't be the easiest last game of the season for you

 

[EnglishRed]

I hope you're right there - we're unbeaten in 8 now (W5, D3) - we also have Eastleigh away and then final game you at home... If you are in a play off spot but not confirmed how many do you reckon you would bring on the last day?
If we do beat Braintree that will be them, Dover and Eastleigh who we've beaten at home and FGR only drew - so it won't be the easiest last game of the season for you

If we are go into the final game needing a win to make the play offs I'd expect quite a few making the trip.

 

[Reginald Fodstain]

We're third favourites to scrape into fifth I'd say, but somehow we're still in this... Braintree losing tonight makes saturday's 12 hour round trip to Torquay interesting anyway. Bet Blissett scores.

 

[LeWhites]

Between Dover, Eastleigh and Wrexham for me now for 4th and 5th. Saturday massive for us - need to not lose

 

[GTFCfish]

Between Dover, Eastleigh and Wrexham for me now for 4th and 5th. Saturday massive for us - need to not lose

If Wrexham are still in the race then surely so are Tranmere, Wrexham are 3 behind them with 1 game in hand no way they can be ruled out yet.

 

[LeWhites]

If Wrexham are still in the race then surely so are Tranmere, Wrexham are 3 behind them with 1 game in hand no way they can be ruled out yet.

True. Wrexham's goal difference is massive though

 

[chipmunx]

True. Wrexham's goal difference is massive though

that won't matter - they are at Barrow last game of the season

 

[Back in the DHSS]

After last nights games it looks like only 5th place is now up for grabs. Braintree have gone to pieces, so for me it's one out of Tranmere, Eastleigh and Wrexham. For Tranmere to make it they really need to take maximum points out of the Wrexham and Eastleigh games.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Feel embarrassed to still be posting in this after Saturday's game. Shambolic defensive display for us against a side that will go down anyway. Fortunately every team apart from maybe Cheltenham are rubbish and or inconsistent in this league so we're not out of the playoff chase yet, but realistically need to be taking 8+ points from the last four games, avoiding defeat to Wrexham & Eastleigh as a bare minimum.

 

[gtfcfan]

How can you claim Tranmere are out the play-off race when they are currently in the play-offs?
even if they have played more games, its better to have the points than games in hand

 

[LeWhites]

How can you claim Tranmere are out the play-off race when they are currently in the play-offs?
even if they have played more games, its better to have the points than games in hand

It really isn't, not with that many teams breathing down your neck. It's arguably better to be 2 points ahead of one team with a game in hand but even then I'd rather have it in my own hands than rely on others losing.

I'd rather have the points and the game in hand

 

[Luke Imp]

Eastleigh in the driving seat for 5th now, although I'm not sure who their 2 games in hand are against.

 

[1884 Belmont]

Club----------------Maximum points available.
Cheltenham--------------------101
FGR------------------------------ 97
Grimsby------------------------93
Dover---------------------------89
Tranmere----------------------81
Braintree----------------------83
Eastleigh-----------------------85
Wrexham----------------------81
Gateshead---------------------75
Macclesfield-------------------75
Bromley------------------------71
Barrow--------------------------74
Lincoln--------------------------69

So, nobody below Lincoln can mathematically qualify for the Playoffs. The current 5th place side (Tranmere) are on 69 points, so whilst that remains the case, anyone who can match that could still mathematically qualify on goal difference. Anyone who can obtain more points than that could obviously still overtake the 5th place side and so therefore cannot be mathematically disregarded. So, a lot of teams can still technically make it, but what will it take to mathematically guarantee a playoff spot?

Well, looking at the above maximum points tallies, we need to find the 6th highest total, which is currently Braintree’s 83 points. To absolutely guarantee a playoff spot, a club must therefore obtain 83 + 1 points, which is obviously 84. (Yes, 83 + GD may be enough, but 84 guarantees it).
With that in mind, here is the current situation:

89 – Cheltenham
88
87
86
85 – Forest Green Rovers
84
--------GUARANTEED QUALIFICATION FOR PLAYOFFS (CURRENT TOTAL REQUIRED: 84 POINTS)---------
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75 – Grimsby Town
74 – Dover Athletic
73
72
71
70
69 – Tranmere Rovers
68 – Braintree Town
67 - Eastleigh
66 - Wrexham
65
64
63 - Gateshead
62
61
60 - Macclesfield
59 – Bromley, Barrow
58
57 – Lincoln
I will update this as and when required, up until the time that 5 sides have guaranteed a playoff spot. The points required will not go up, but could come down based on results and this will be reflected above.

 

[Heedtastic]

We'll be lucky to get another point this season. As soon as we got knocked out the trophy by Halifax, the deckchairs came out.

 

[LeWhites]

Club----------------Maximum points available.
Cheltenham--------------------101
FGR------------------------------ 97
Grimsby------------------------93
Dover---------------------------89
Tranmere----------------------81
Braintree----------------------83
Eastleigh-----------------------85
Wrexham----------------------81
Gateshead---------------------75
Macclesfield-------------------75
Bromley------------------------71
Barrow--------------------------74
Lincoln--------------------------69

So, nobody below Lincoln can mathematically qualify for the Playoffs. The current 5th place side (Tranmere) are on 69 points, so whilst that remains the case, anyone who can match that could still mathematically qualify on goal difference. Anyone who can obtain more points than that could obviously still overtake the 5th place side and so therefore cannot be mathematically disregarded. So, a lot of teams can still technically make it, but what will it take to mathematically guarantee a playoff spot?

Well, looking at the above maximum points tallies, we need to find the 6th highest total, which is currently Braintree’s 83 points. To absolutely guarantee a playoff spot, a club must therefore obtain 83 + 1 points, which is obviously 84. (Yes, 83 + GD may be enough, but 84 guarantees it).
With that in mind, here is the current situation:

89 – Cheltenham
88
87
86
85 – Forest Green Rovers
84
--------GUARANTEED QUALIFICATION FOR PLAYOFFS (CURRENT TOTAL REQUIRED: 84 POINTS)---------
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75 – Grimsby Town
74 – Dover Athletic
73
72
71
70
69 – Tranmere Rovers
68 – Braintree Town
67 - Eastleigh
66 - Wrexham
65
64
63 - Gateshead
62
61
60 - Macclesfield
59 – Bromley, Barrow
58
57 – Lincoln
I will update this as and when required, up until the time that 5 sides have guaranteed a playoff spot. The points required will not go up, but could come down based on results and this will be reflected above.

Surely the fact that most of the top 7 are playing at least 2 others from the top 7 makes this redundant? Realistically 80 points guarantees a play off spot

 

[chipmunx]

Eastleigh in the driving seat for 5th now, although I'm not sure who their 2 games in hand are against.

one of them is us at home next Tuesday - we are unbeaten in 9, have won the last 4 including Braintree last night - and we've already played Eastleigh of the park when we were crap earlier in the season and we beat them 1-0 (they were top and possibly unbeaten at the time)

 

[les.gtfc]

Mathematically, 3 wins from our last 6 games will see us safely in the play-offs but just 2 will probably do it realistically.

2 tough home games coming up against Eastleigh and Braintree before a trip to Dover. We then go to Woking before finishing with Chester at home and Tranmere away on the last day of the season.

In similar fashion to what FGR might do, we too could be safe by the time we go to Tranmere so maybe PH will rest a few players. A similar thing happened a few seasons ago when Newport were safely in the play-offs and played a weakened team against us on the last day of the season. We beat them 3-0 that day but they came back in midweek, making 9 changes and beat us 1-0.