The Promotion Thread

[thewwfc]

Yeah yeah, so we're way off it...we win a couple of games and the minnows get excited, you know how it goes.

But anyway, let's get this going.

For starters, check out the run-ins (which I've counted as the last ten games for each club, posted in the order they are in the table currently). I've cut it off at Posh, but feel free to post your run-in if you think you're suddenly going to smash it from mid-table.


Sheffield Wednesday

Sat 25 Mar A Forest Green Rovers
Tue 28 Mar A Cheltenham Town
Sat 1 Apr H Lincoln City
Fri 7 Apr A Oxford United
Mon 10 Apr H Accrington Stanley
Sat 15 Apr A Burton Albion
Tue 18 Apr A Bristol Rovers
Sat 22 Apr H Exeter City
Sat 29 Apr A Shrewsbury Town
Sun 7 May H Derby County

Plymouth Argyle

Sat 18 Mar H Forest Green Rovers
Tue 21 Mar A Accrington Stanley
Sat 1 Apr H Bristol Rovers
Fri 7 Apr A Morecambe
Mon 10 Apr H Lincoln City
Sat 15 Apr A Exeter City
Tue 18 Apr A Shrewsbury Town
Sat 22 Apr H Cambridge United
Sat 29 Apr H Burton Albion
Sun 7 May A Port Vale

Ipswich

Sat 18 Mar H Shrewsbury Town
Sat 25 Mar A Barnsley
Sat 1 Apr A Derby County
Fri 7 Apr H Wycombe Wanderers
Mon 10 Apr A Cheltenham Town
Sat 15 Apr H Charlton Athletic
Tue 18 Apr H Port Vale
Sat 22 Apr A Peterborough United
Sat 29 Apr H Exeter City
Sun 7 May A Fleetwood Town

Bolton Wanderers

Sat 11 Mar H Ipswich Town
Fri 17 Mar A Sheffield Wednesday
Fri 7 Apr A Exeter City
Mon 10 Apr H Cambridge United
Sat 15 Apr A Oxford United
Tue 18 Apr A Burton Albion
Sat 22 Apr H Shrewsbury Town
Tue 25 Apr H Accrington Stanley
Sat 29 Apr H Fleetwood Town
Sun 7 May A Bristol Rovers

Derby County

Sat 18 Mar H Fleetwood Town
Sat 25 Mar A Peterborough United
Sat 1 Apr H Ipswich Town
Fri 7 Apr A Forest Green Rovers
Mon 10 Apr H Milton Keynes Dons
Sat 15 Apr A Bristol Rovers
Tue 18 Apr A Exeter City
Sat 22 Apr H Burton Albion
Sat 29 Apr H Portsmouth
Sun 7 May A Sheffield Wednesday

Barnsley

Sat 25 Mar H Ipswich Town
Tue 28 Mar A Exeter City
Sat 1 Apr H Morecambe
Fri 7 Apr A Burton Albion
Mon 10 Apr H Shrewsbury Town
Sat 15 Apr A Forest Green Rovers
Tue 18 Apr A Lincoln City
Sat 22 Apr H Oxford United
Sat 29 Apr A Milton Keynes Dons
Sun 7 May H Peterborough United

Wycombe Wanderers

Sat 18 Mar H Barnsley
Sat 25 Mar A Charlton Athletic
Sat 1 Apr H Milton Keynes Dons
Fri 7 Apr A Ipswich Town
Mon 10 Apr H Forest Green Rovers
Sat 15 Apr A Morecambe
Tue 18 Apr A Cambridge United
Sat 22 Apr H Lincoln City
Sat 29 Apr H Cheltenham Town
Sun 7 May A Portsmouth

Shrewsbury Town

Sat 18 Mar A Ipswich Town
Sat 25 Mar H Bristol Rovers
Sat 1 Apr A Charlton Athletic
Fri 7 Apr H Peterborough United
Mon 10 Apr A Barnsley
Sat 15 Apr H Portsmouth
Tue 18 Apr H Plymouth Argyle
Sat 22 Apr A Bolton Wanderers
Sat 29 Apr H Sheffield Wednesday
Sun 7 May A Lincoln City

Peterborough United

Sat 18 Mar A Lincoln City
Sat 25 Mar H Derby County
Sat 1 Apr H Oxford United
Fri 7 Apr A Shrewsbury Town
Mon 10 Apr H Exeter City
Sat 15 Apr A Cambridge United
Tue 18 Apr A Accrington Stanley
Sat 22 Apr H Ipswich Town
Sat 29 Apr H Bristol Rovers
Sun 7 May A Barnsley


I think Sheff Wed (that final game v Derby aside...), Plymouth, Derby (again, final day aside, brown trousers obligatory) and Barnsley have very decent run-ins.

Ours is not bad, but Morecambe and Cambridge could still be fighting for their lives by the time we play them, I'm hoping Chelts stop being shite and have managed to get on the beach by the time we face them.

Shrewsbury's is a stinker. Good.

 

[Luke Imp]

As has been the case for most of the season, it's between Plymouth, Wednesday and Ipswich for the autos IMO. Bolton have played a game or two more and I can't see them reeling the others in.

Then Wycombe and above for the PO's. It'll be a strong PO line-up as well.

 

[Floreat Salopia]

We don’t belong in this thread. Comfortable top half mid table for us this year. Can’t say I’m too happy about it but we’ve given it a good go with what players we have fit.

The current top 6 just aren’t losing anywhere near enough points for somebody to gatecrash the play offs. Top two will be Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday. Top 6 will remain as it is and I can’t see past Ipswich to win the play offs.

 

[91SPP]

As has been the case for most of the season, it's between Plymouth, Wednesday and Ipswich for the autos IMO. Bolton have played a game or two more and I can't see them reeling the others in.

Then Wycombe and above for the PO's. It'll be a strong PO line-up as well.

Not sure who their games in hand are against, but if Barnsley win both of them then they would be third on 62 points, Derby have their game in hand at home against Cheltenham to put themselves on the same points as Ipswich 60.

Assuming games in hand are won:
Barnsley - 62 points from 32 games.
Ipswich/Derby - 60 points from 32 games.
Bolton - 59 points from 33 games

Wycombe are coming strong, but at the moment their best chance of the play-offs is going to be catching Bolton which if they can their two games in hand on them then they would be on the same points in the same amount of games - 59 from 33.

Plymouth and Wednesday have an healthy lead. If I'm a betting man, I'm not going against either of them at this stage. I'm sure the odd draw will come up, but I don't see Plymouth or Wednesday losing more than three times in their final 14 games.

 

[Si Robin]

Sheffield Weds' game in hand is also against us.

 

[thewwfc]

Wycombe are coming strong, but at the moment their best chance of the play-offs is going to be catching Bolton which if they can their two games in hand on them then they would be on the same points in the same amount of games - 59 from 33.

If Ainsworth goes to QPR then we formally retire from this thread. There will be no time for a new gaffer to come in and adapt the players to the way they want to play, so that would be the end of that.

Us scraping the last playoff spot was an outside hope in any case, but it relies on someone above us slipping up and us going on a superhuman run of form.

All teams above us are better resourced also and will have better strength in depth if key players get crocked.

 

[BarrieOwl]

Not sure who their games in hand are against, but if Barnsley win both of them then they would be third on 62 points, Derby have their game in hand at home against Cheltenham to put themselves on the same points as Ipswich 60.

Assuming games in hand are won:
Barnsley - 62 points from 32 games.
Ipswich/Derby - 60 points from 32 games.
Bolton - 59 points from 33 games

Wycombe are coming strong, but at the moment their best chance of the play-offs is going to be catching Bolton which if they can their two games in hand on them then they would be on the same points in the same amount of games - 59 from 33.

Plymouth and Wednesday have an healthy lead. If I'm a betting man, I'm not going against either of them at this stage. I'm sure the odd draw will come up, but I don't see Plymouth or Wednesday losing more than three times in their final 14 games.

I'd prefer Wycombe to pip to you to the final play off spot, ideally on the final day so your 2,500 strong away following can get bounced out of Hillsborough on their arses.

 

[valefan16]

Can't see Wednesday bottling it now and Argyle keep going so think them two are up automatically.

Wycombe depends on Ainsworth staying I would say, but Ipswich, Derby and Bolton look set for the top 6, Barnsley and Wycombe for the other, no one else is breaking into it.

Shrewsbury had a good run but has to be caveat that their 6 wins were against sides at the bottom plus 2 massively out for form sides and have all the top guns to face so were probably in a bit of a false position.

9 points is too big of a gap for a wildly inconsistent Peterborough at this stage.

 

[91SPP]

I'd prefer Wycombe to pip to you to the final play off spot, ideally on the final day so your 2,500 strong away following can get bounced out of Hillsborough on their arses.

It's football, so anything can of course happen. I would be surprised if we didn't make the play-offs, though. I'd say we've been fairly consistent now for a long time and the team look very good.

I would guess that we probably pick up between 27-36 points in our last 15 games which would give us a range 84-93 points at the end of the season. 84 points could leave us vulnerable - Wycombe would need 32 points from their last 15 games to better it.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

Wednesday are clearly going up, and deservedly, still my tip for champions

Argyle..... Clearly an outstanding team, and with a convincing lead over the teams below, but I have a niggling doubt they will be able to keep that lead with the likes of Ipswich and Derby nibbling at their heels. Two of Bolton, Barnsley and Wycombe likely to be in the playoffs I think, but most other earlier contenders, like Peterborough, Portsmouth, Shrewsbury have probably peaked for this season.

 

[ProfessorGreen]

We've got a tricky few games coming up, during which I expect the gap to close a bit.

After that our run in is definitely favourable. If we've got a 5 or 6 point gap by the time 18th March swings around I'll be delighted.

 

[thewwfc]

Ainsworth gone.

I'm OK with our choice of replacement manager, so it's not like I'm whining about the appointment, but realistically it's too much to expect of any new manager to continue the kind of winning streak we've been on, as he gets to grips with the job.

So I reckon we can pretty much rule ourselves out here.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Hoping that Wednesday go up . Plymouth will too. We need to get rid of a Derby or a Bolton too. Hopefully that will make league 1 a bit more of a level playing field next season.

 

[Dan Phillips]

Hoping that Wednesday go up . Plymouth will too. We need to get rid of a Derby or a Bolton too. Hopefully that will make league 1 a bit more of a level playing field next season.

Not really.

You'll just get the likes of Wigan chucking money at it like always. Stockport will probably come up and take the piss too.

 

[PlymouthCasual]

Tough game Saturday against a very inconsistent Peterborough. On their day they have the firepower to trouble anybody with JC-H. Would take a point but 3 points would be huge!

 

[leedsvaliant]

Not really.

You'll just get the likes of Wigan chucking money at it like always. Stockport will probably come up and take the piss too.

Agreed, but I don't think on the same level as some currently in the division. These teams with smaller crowd's can't risk it as much as a Derby or Wednesday. I'd feel more confident going to a Blackpool or a Wigan for example.

 

[Greenacres]

Promotion, an over-rated experience....think we might rebrand ourselves as Chumba Wumba FC...we come up, we go back down again!

 

[Laker]

Not really.

You'll just get the likes of Wigan chucking money at it like always. Stockport will probably come up and take the piss too.

Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton are all sensible ish clubs without stupid budgets as far as I’m aware. Can see any of Stockport, Salford or Mansfield chucking the earth at it if they come up though.

 

[Dan Phillips]

Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton are all sensible ish clubs without stupid budgets as far as I’m aware. Can see any of Stockport, Salford or Mansfield chucking the earth at it if they come up though.

Northampton's budget is higher than you'd think. Likewise Orient.

 

[Laker]

Northampton's budget is higher than you'd think. Likewise Orient.

Yeah but it’s all relative, they’ll be more like Lincoln than Derby won’t they.

 

[Dan Phillips]

Yeah but it’s all relative, they’ll be more like Lincoln than Derby won’t they.

Oh yeah, they certainly wouldn't be troubling even the top half of this league in terms of budget.

 

[Floreat Salopia]

Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton are all sensible ish clubs without stupid budgets as far as I’m aware. Can see any of Stockport, Salford or Mansfield chucking the earth at it if they come up though.

Leyton Orient will be a bottom half club as will Stevenage. If Northampton come up, they’ll be going straight back down again. They just never seem to be able to hold their place in League 1 for some reason. Think Carlisle will struggle to stay up too. Stockport and Salford would be fine but I wouldn’t expect Mansfield to do anything special seeing as they haven’t been at this level in donkeys and I just don’t think they’d spend as much as people make out.

Any club coming down from the Championship will be throwing ridiculous money once again, especially Wigan. Would hate to imagine what Cardiff or Huddersfield’s budget would be if they were to drop.

The jump from League 2 to League 1 is just on par with the jump from League 1 to Championship imo. There’s some silly budgets for this level and the quality compared to League 2 is a big one.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Leyton Orient will be a bottom half club as will Stevenage. If Northampton come up, they’ll be going straight back down again. They just never seem to be able to hold their place in League 1 for some reason. Think Carlisle will struggle to stay up too. Stockport and Salford would be fine but I wouldn’t expect Mansfield to do anything special seeing as they haven’t been at this level in donkeys and I just don’t think they’d spend as much as people make out.

Any club coming down from the Championship will be throwing ridiculous money once again, especially Wigan. Would hate to imagine what Cardiff or Huddersfield’s budget would be if they were to drop.

The jump from League 2 to League 1 is just on par with the jump from League 1 to Championship imo. There’s some silly budgets for this level and the quality compared to League 2 is a big one.

I'd say the top 6 of this league is a fair jump, but the rest is much of a muchness. We haven't been particularly great this season and it wouldn't take me long to tot up a really good performance, yet we're mid table and will probably finish about 12th to 14th.

Although the Championship isn't as good this season, there will still be at least a dozen teams that will have 10 times our budget. Something needs to be done to level the playing field because the two top divisions are becoming a bit of a closed shop. I don't watch any Premier league anymore because it's just dull....the same teams swapping places with each other. Yawn.

I get that people will say that those with bigger crowds deserve to have bigger budgets, but those crowds have been built on the back of 80 to 100 years of relative success. Who's to say that some of these smaller teams, with a sustained period of success over 50/60 years could not build their fanbase to a similar level?

It's a closed shop and I can see people massively switching off from the sport over the next few years.

 

[valefan16]

I'd say the top 6 of this league is a fair jump, but the rest is much of a muchness. We haven't been particularly great this season and it wouldn't take me long to tot up a really good performance, yet we're mid table and will probably finish about 12th to 14th.

Although the Championship isn't as good this season, there will still be at least a dozen teams that will have 10 times our budget. Something needs to be done to level the playing field because the two top divisions are becoming a bit of a closed shop. I don't watch any Premier league anymore because it's just dull....the same teams swapping places with each other. Yawn.

I get that people will say that those with bigger crowds deserve to have bigger budgets, but those crowds have been built on the back of 80 to 100 years of relative success. Who's to say that some of these smaller teams, with a sustained period of success over 50/60 years could not build their fanbase to a similar level?

It's a closed shop and I can see people massively switching off from the sport over the next few years.

Well the fact we were 9th at 5pm New Years Day, have since played 9 winning 1, drawing 2 and losing 6 and still sit top half shows how mediocre the majority is, you have your big spenders miles ahead and everyone else below that is interchangeable.

League One is essentially two leagues with a split (last year 9-10) this year 6 or 7 sides will run away, any promotion side from League Two this season will have a chance as the bottom 15/16 is much of a muchness.

Finance is what it is, as I have said you've got smaller clubs owned by very rich people which have pushed them up the pyramid (Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, Bournemouth etc) and the "giants" that haven't been run well end up down here, that's why the league has far more giant clubs in it that it used to.

The days of little old Port Vale, Swindon, Grimsby, Crewe etc going to the Championship, spending 7-8 years there and challenging for a play off place like the 90's are sadly long gone.

 

[PlymouthCasual]

Thats Bolton settling for the play offs for me. Can’t see them staging an automatic promotion charge now with so few games remaining.

 

[TractorBoys]

Barnsley's next 6 games are all tough. Would be amazed if they affected the autos.

Still a 3 horse race for me with Derby and Bolton as rank outsiders.

 

[PlymouthCasual]

Barnsley's next 6 games are all tough. Would be amazed if they affected the autos.

Still a 3 horse race for me with Derby and Bolton as rank outsiders.

Our next 3 fixtures are Charlton and Derby (H) and Barnsley (A)

If we are still ahead of you guys buy 3+ points by then I will be extremely happy. So many twists and turns left this season

 

[TractorBoys]

Our next 3 fixtures are Charlton and Derby (H) and Barnsley (A)

If we are still ahead of you guys buy 3+ points by then I will be extremely happy. So many twists and turns left this season

You just know it's going to come down the last 3 or 4 at most, IMO.

 

[PlymouthCasual]

You just know it's going to come down the last 3 or 4 at most, IMO.

Yup, the team with the biggest set of bollocks rather than the most quality will be promoted for me. Every game going forward is important

 

[BarrieOwl]

I honestly believe we will be promoted with 4 games left.