The proper relegation thread.

[The Terminator]

We are now very much in this and have been showing signs of a relegation threatened team since the new year. Will likely take 4-6 games before we end up in the bottom 2 though. By which time we will likely be 13/14 games without a win. We have also currently scored 1 goal in 7 games.

We have no squad depth and our players have now downed tools on Jackett who cannot/refuses to find solutions to us signing inexperienced central midfielders who don't have any sort of nous about them to get us in games.

Our board apparently invested £150k into our squad in January - its not been well spent.

 

[Bottega Don]

Even with their win today I still think it'll be Oldham going down with us

Nobody else is really in this

 

[Monkey Tennis]

I was surprised to see Walsall below us when I saw the table this evening, as they're not among the worst teams I've seen this season. The current bottom six are the only ones in any danger (Orient may be on a poor run, but no chance Oldham make up 11 points on them), but our last couple of performances have made me feel a lot more confident that we can start to pull away.

 

[SELatic]

I think that result yesterday is the end of Scunny. Was a must win for both teams and I’m just relieved we got it. Still a huge uphill battle but that was better from us yesterday and under Shez anything is possible

 

[Chief Rocka]

I was surprised to see Walsall below us when I saw the table this evening, as they're not among the worst teams I've seen this season. The current bottom six are the only ones in any danger (Orient may be on a poor run, but no chance Oldham make up 11 points on them), but our last couple of performances have made me feel a lot more confident that we can start to pull away.

What was your cut off for the bottom six, seventh/eighth/ninth/tenth bottom are only three points above yourselves.

Scunthorpe look doomed after that result, the win puts Oldham's peckers up for a week but I wouldn't start pulling on my Shezerection just yet, in reality it's their first win in 10 against a team they couldn't afford to lose or even draw against, let's see how they follow it up in the next few weeks before we all go full hellogregory.

 

[Monkey Tennis]

What was your cut off for the bottom six, seventh/eighth/ninth/tenth bottom are only three points above yourselves.

Scunthorpe look doomed after that result, the win puts Oldham's peckers up for a week but I wouldn't start pulling on my Shezerection just yet, in reality it's their first win in 10 against a team they couldn't afford to lose or even draw against, let's see how they follow it up in the next few weeks before we all go full hellogregory.

I'd say in reality it's only the bottom four that should be worrying about a relegation battle (Carlisle and Walsall mainly because of their form), but ourselves and Colchester have played more matches than those immediately above - plus the pessimist in me worries that a few bad results and we're back in turmoil.

I suppose Stevenage are also in the mix, but seem to be much improved, and the others around the 30 mark just seem strong enough to pick up a handful of wins between now and the end of the season.

 

[kieran_vale]

Think yesterday was the killer blow on Scunnys hopes. Of course a team can always go on a run of wins and maybe that changes but they just have no cutting edge to them at all so hard to see how.

Odds are still on Oldham really. If they did survive they should build Sheridan a statue as it would be very much in spite of their owner. Walsall are the interesting one, rookie manager and an inept owner and DOF is not a good combo. I think they may just pull clear in the end but this is a couple of seasons they’ve played fast and loose with their league status. Only so many times you can do it.

 

[valefan16]

Think yesterday was the killer blow on Scunnys hopes. Of course a team can always go on a run of wins and maybe that changes but they just have no cutting edge to them at all so hard to see how.

Odds are still on Oldham really. If they did survive they should build Sheridan a statue as it would be very much in spite of their owner. Walsall are the interesting one, rookie manager and an inept owner and DOF is not a good combo. I think they may just pull clear in the end but this is a couple of seasons they’ve played fast and loose with their league status. Only so many times you can do it.

Walsall just look like us under Smurf. Crap owner, employing rookie managers and generally seems to be penny pinching.

They beat DC though so that’s all that matters!

They need to stop the rot but if Oldham do kick into form it could be a bit tense.

 

[BarraMatt]

I'd say in reality it's only the bottom four that should be worrying about a relegation battle (Carlisle and Walsall mainly because of their form), but ourselves and Colchester have played more matches than those immediately above - plus the pessimist in me worries that a few bad results and we're back in turmoil.

I suppose Stevenage are also in the mix, but seem to be much improved, and the others around the 30 mark just seem strong enough to pick up a handful of wins between now and the end of the season.

I feel a lot more comfortable at the moment than I did at any point last season. Our squad is better overall other than one or two weaknesses but they've been addressed in January with a couple of additions as opposed to Jolley signing a complete new squad and the signs since the window shut have been positive.

I don't think games in hand mean a huge amount at this stage of the season, you're asking Oldham for example to put a run of 2 or 3 wins together, something that obviously can happen as we did it ourselves but unlikely given their results over the course of the season so far. Games in hand are more meaningful in a title race where you'd expect teams to get results. Points on the board is massive, no one is gonna take them away from you.

Plus, you could be looking at March or April by the time some of these games are played, ample opportunity for the teams currently on 30 points and above to get themselves safe by the time they come around. It's not like there's no pressure on Oldham to win their games in hand either, one slip up and they know they're still adrift even if they win the other.

I'll reassess how Oldham fare over the next three or four games before revising the TARGET. No way Scunny are getting to 45 now.

 

[hellogregory]

Walsall play Scunthorpe on Tuesday. If they win that and end their bad run it could be the kick start they need. Their squad isn’t as bad as the teams below them which will tell in the end I think.

It’s 2 from 3 in my opinion
Scunthorpe, Oldham and Carlisle.

Oldham seem to have a bit of positivity around them and look to have a bit about them based on yesterday.
Scunthorpe it’s all doom and gloom. I think they’ll put a little run together at some point, but will it be enough? Doubtful after yesterdays result I’d say but they did create some chances.
Carlisle are only heading one way. Terrible performances, poor quality, long term injuries to key players in key areas with nothing in reserve to replace them. Lack of creativity and goals. To me watching us, I doubt we’ll win more than 2 more games this season.

Right now I’d say it will be Scunthorpe and Carlisle for the drop.

 

[Monkey Tennis]

I feel a lot more comfortable at the moment than I did at any point last season. Our squad is better overall other than one or two weaknesses but they've been addressed in January with a couple of additions as opposed to Jolley signing a complete new squad and the signs since the window shut have been positive.

I don't think games in hand mean a huge amount at this stage of the season, you're asking Oldham for example to put a run of 2 or 3 wins together, something that obviously can happen as we did it ourselves but unlikely given their results over the course of the season so far. Games in hand are more meaningful in a title race where you'd expect teams to get results. Points on the board is massive, no one is gonna take them away from you.

Plus, you could be looking at March or April by the time some of these games are played, ample opportunity for the teams currently on 30 points and above to get themselves safe by the time they come around. It's not like there's no pressure on Oldham to win their games in hand either, one slip up and they know they're still adrift even if they win the other.

I'll reassess how Oldham fare over the next three or four games before revising the TARGET. No way Scunny are getting to 45 now.

Yep, totally agree - I just think there's a lot more of a chance of Oldham making up eight points on us (with two games in hand), than they are making up eight points on Rochdale (who have played one game fewer than them).

 

[Myblueheaven04]

Anyone of us could have a bit of a winning run.
We have a bit of positivity at the minute, a few fans coming back and supporting shez has lifted the doom and gloom.
Signings look an improvement and give us more threat up top.
Fans have been class too recently whivh helps I suppose.
But its too hard to call yet imo

 

[FGR Stroud]

Right now I’d say it will be Scunthorpe and Carlisle for the drop.

Statement very hard to substantiate:

Scunthorpe - Played 29 with 19 points and -29 GD. Zero points on current form
Oldham - Played 27 with 22 points and -19 GD. 6 points on current form
Carlisle - Played 28 with 27 points and -17 GD. 5 points on current form.

Scunthorpe would need 8 points or three wins more than their opponents to move above relegation.
Oldham would need 6 points or two wins more than Carlisle to move above them and out of relegation.

HG, Bet 365 relegation odds don't support your opinion:

 

[Chief Rocka]

80/1 Orient who are tumbling down the league, worth a quid of anyone's money

 

[hellogregory]

Statement very hard to substantiate:

Scunthorpe - Played 29 with 19 points and -29 GD. Zero points on current form
Oldham - Played 27 with 22 points and -19 GD. 6 points on current form
Carlisle - Played 28 with 27 points and -17 GD. 5 points on current form.

Scunthorpe would need 8 points or three wins more than their opponents to move above relegation.
Oldham would need 6 points or two wins more than Carlisle to move above them and out of relegation.

HG, Bet 365 relegation odds don't support your opinion:
View attachment 16636

The difference between me and Bet365 is I actually watch the team. I know how bad we are, how plagued with injuries we are and I can see the performances getting progressively worse by the week. They are basing their odds purely on league position and nothing else.

365 have us as favourites to beat Port Vale on Tuesday FFS.

 

[valefan16]

The difference between me and Bet365 is I actually watch the team. I know how bad we are, how plagued with injuries we are and I can see the performances getting progressively worse by the week. They are basing their odds purely on league position and nothing else.

365 have us as favourites to beat Port Vale on Tuesday FFS.

Probably because of who owns Bet365!

 

[hellogregory]

Probably because of who owns Bet365!

Every bookie has us favourites for Tuesdays match. I don’t get it at all.

 

[kieran_vale]

Every bookie has us favourites for Tuesdays match. I don’t get it at all.

Probably because you’re at home in midweek and looking at the form table we are nestled right next to each other. Now some of that is deceptive as we had a break for 6 weeks but will factor in.

 

[FGR Stroud]

The difference between me and Bet365 is I actually watch the team. I know how bad we are, how plagued with injuries we are and I can see the performances getting progressively worse by the week. They are basing their odds purely on league position and nothing else.

365 have us as favourites to beat Port Vale on Tuesday FFS.

Okay lets check Betting Odds.com to find same general relegation odds.
Nobody considers Carlisle are in threat of it, except you.

 

[valefan16]

Probably because you’re at home in midweek and looking at the form table we are nestled right next to each other. Now some of that is deceptive as we had a break for 6 weeks but will factor in.

Sky bet have us slight favourites at 6/4 compared to 17/10 for Carlisle which is probably about right, our away form is generally good, Carlisle have only won 3 but only lost 4 home games so a draw is probably the most likely outcome.

 

[hellogregory]

Sky bet have us slight favourites at 6/4 compared to 17/10 for Carlisle which is probably about right, our away form is generally good, Carlisle have only won 3 but only lost 4 home games so a draw is probably the most likely outcome.

Must be changing. Last night when I looked all of them were edging towards us.

I see you as favourites. I get the leaning towards home advantage thing usually, but we’ve been generally shit at home. i saw that we’ve failed to score in like 9 of 14 home games or something ridiculous like that.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

I didn't realise Walsall were that low either.
Speaking to a couple of their stewards yesterday, they were very pessimistic about their ability to get back on it and they weren't confident that they had enough to avoid the drop themselves without 'help' from others.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Okay lets check Betting Odds.com to find same general relegation odds.
Nobody considers Carlisle are in threat of it, except you.

View attachment 16640

Odds generally mean fuck all though. Carlisle are well in the mix if they keep going as they are and Oldham start picking up more points. Scunny are the only one gone you'd think.

 

[FGR Stroud]

Odds generally mean fuck all though. Carlisle are well in the mix if they keep going as they are and Oldham start picking up more points. Scunny are the only one gone you'd think.

The bookies are not fools. It is their business and misjudgements could cost them money. Therefore the odds are always very shrewd.

On form table Oldham have scored one point more than Carlisle in last 6 matches.
On that basis they would run out of games before overhauling Carlisle.

It will be sad to see either club relegated to Conference football, but last time it happened to Carlisle they bounced straight back up.

 

[valefan16]

The bookies are not fools. It is their business and misjudgements could cost them money. Therefore the odds are always very shrewd.

On form table Oldham have scored one point more than Carlisle in last 6 matches.
On that basis they would run out of games before overhauling Carlisle.

It will be sad to see either club relegated to Conference football, but last time it happened to Carlisle they bounced straight back up.

Micky Adams used to always say “you never see a bookie on a bike”

 

[shoddycollins]

We are now very much in this and have been showing signs of a relegation threatened team since the new year. Will likely take 4-6 games before we end up in the bottom 2 though. By which time we will likely be 13/14 games without a win. We have also currently scored 1 goal in 7 games.

We have no squad depth and our players have now downed tools on Jackett who cannot/refuses to find solutions to us signing inexperienced central midfielders who don't have any sort of nous about them to get us in games.

Our board apparently invested £150k into our squad in January - its not been well spent.

Behave yourself.

 

[hellogregory]

The bookies are not fools. It is their business and misjudgements could cost them money. Therefore the odds are always very shrewd.

On form table Oldham have scored one point more than Carlisle in last 6 matches.
On that basis they would run out of games before overhauling Carlisle.

It will be sad to see either club relegated to Conference football, but last time it happened to Carlisle they bounced straight back up.

That will not happen this time unless we get new ownership. With the current owners the club will be gone within 5 years of relegation to the conference.
It’s going to be a disaster.

 

[Sestonpoolie]

Think yesterday was the killer blow on Scunnys hopes. Of course a team can always go on a run of wins and maybe that changes but they just have no cutting edge to them at all so hard to see how.

Odds are still on Oldham really. If they did survive they should build Sheridan a statue as it would be very much in spite of their owner. Walsall are the interesting one, rookie manager and an inept owner and DOF is not a good combo. I think they may just pull clear in the end but this is a couple of seasons they’ve played fast and loose with their league status. Only so many times you can do it.

Agree,I think Scunny are gone.
Someone said they could go on a run & get out trouble,as we did when we appointed Ronnie Moore a few season ago.
The difference is,our results improved immediately under Moore,while Scunny are still poor under Hill.

 

[saddler78]

Think yesterday was the killer blow on Scunnys hopes. Of course a team can always go on a run of wins and maybe that changes but they just have no cutting edge to them at all so hard to see how.

Odds are still on Oldham really. If they did survive they should build Sheridan a statue as it would be very much in spite of their owner. Walsall are the interesting one, rookie manager and an inept owner and DOF is not a good combo. I think they may just pull clear in the end but this is a couple of seasons they’ve played fast and loose with their league status. Only so many times you can do it.

Spot on summary mate we could be in deep shit if we lose tonight.

 

[BarraMatt]

The relegation battle is wide open again.