The Relegation Thread

[JaseTheVillain]

Yes. He kept trying to feed him Haggis, but much as Benteke will eat most anything, he draws the line at Sheep's stomach.

 

[Leewilson]

https://www.thesportspredictor.com/#/



Shows what happens when you actually feed the man and use him up top as you should do.

Sherwood's proving that he's very adept at getting the best from his forward players. Adebayor was revitalised under him. Benteke now the same. However, much like his Tottenham side, Villa lack steel. There's one thing playing entertaining football, it's another to pick up consistent results.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Sherwood's proving that he's very adept at getting the best from his forward players. Adebayor was revitalised under him. Benteke now the same. However, much like his Tottenham side, Villa lack steel. There's one thing playing entertaining football, it's another to pick up consistent results.

I agree, we don't seem to be able to see games out, however this was the same under Lambert, I think it's a mentality problem. To be honest, the team needs a revamp in the summer, and I hope to god Randy has sold by then...

Guzan
Given
Baker*
Vlaar*
Okore
Clark
Bacuna
Senderos*
Hutton
Cissokho
Lowton
Cleverley*
Sinclair*
Cole*
Westwood**
Delph**
Herd*
Richardson*
Sánchez**
Gil**
N'Zogbia*
Grealish
Weimann
Agbonlahor
Benteke**
Kozák

Starred are players who are either a waste of space, or are leaving anyway, some both (Vlaar and Cleverley anyone?), only one of those I'd like to keep would be Sinclair, hopefully we have a buy option in his loan. Otherwise, these positions for me all need to be filled with better quality. Replacing 9 players isn't going to happen with all of £5million to spend from Lerner, thus the need for a new owner in the summer. This is of course assuming we don't go down. I'd like to see what Sherwood could do with his own squad, as he hasn't had the opportunity to do that yet... I've double starred the players I reckon would be off if we got relegated, and it doesn't make for a pretty read. Some of the unstarred players may of course leave, but I don't think they'd find bidders, and in the case of Agbonlahor I honestly think we could drop to League 2 and he'd stick with us.

 

[Pyeman]

Just had a go at the predictor.

EDIT: Managed to get it working properly. Here it is:

I was a little bit cautious with our results, giving us a couple of draws that could turn into wins. Having said that, we tend to do a little less well against 'smaller' teams, hence my pessimism.

I didn't realise Hull had such a hard run in. I've gone from thinking they were dead certs for relegation, to thinking they were clear of trouble, to now thinking they're gonners again.

 

[mistermagic]

Here's the run-in for the current bottom 7. I didn't include Newcastle as they are 9 points clear and don't think they'll go down. I don't think West Brom will go down either but that run-in is horrific. In fact sides that are outside of the bottom 3 have very tough run-ins while sides in the bottom play the rest and look like they can get out of it until the final day.

West Brom: Leicester (h), Crystal Palace (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (a), Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a).
Sunderland: Crystal Palace (h), Stoke City (a), Southampton (h), Everton (a), Leicester (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a).
Aston Villa: Tottenham (a), Man City (a), Everton (h), West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Burnley (h).
Hull City: Southampton (a), Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (h), Tottenham (a), Man Utd (h).
QPR: Chelsea (h), West Ham (h), Liverpool (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a).
Burnley: Arsenal (h), Everton (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Hull City (a), Stoke City (h), Aston Villa (a).
Leicester: West Brom (a), Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (h), Southampton (h), Sunderland (a), QPR (h).

I agree with the general sentiment that Hull and Sunderland may go down.

 

[Leewilson]

QPR needed a win last night. They basically have to beat West Ham, Newcastle and Leicester and even that may not be enough.

Leicester's fixtures aren't bad but I think they've left too much to do. Villa have some tough games coming up but again, I think that point last night will prove invaluable. Hull and West Brom's fixtures are horrible. The former in more trouble because of their current points tally. Sunderland will have enough to keep their neck above water most likely, although they need to make sure they secure it before the final two games.

Burnley are an enigma. My gut is they'll just go down as despite looking decent and working hard, they're still 2nd bottom. They just can't quite win enough games. Their final five games, good luck predicting them. If they can win 3 of them, I think they'll stay up. I can see them just falling short though.

 

[mistermagic]

Still reckon the current bottom 3 will go down but it's nice that the 3 of them are not going down without a fight. Makes for more interesting things at the bottom.

 

[Hank]

Although we beat Newcastle we didn't play well which doesn't fill me confidence for the rest of the seeson. To be honest I think we'll struggle to stay up.

 

[Humongous Fungus]

I can't predict it, anyone of us could go down. Think the ref not giving Austin a red last night helped them a whole lot.

 

[JustinQPR]

Feeling a tad more confident after the last few days, but that free kick last night could prove vital. We definitely didn't deserve the three points overall, but being ahead going into the last 10 minutes you should always look to hang on.

West Ham, Newcastle and Leicester on the final day are must wins now, and even that probably wont be enough.

 

[Pyeman]

West Ham, Newcastle and Leicester on the final day are must wins now, and even that probably wont be enough.

Those nine points would put you on 35 points, and looking at the remaining fixtures, I'm fairly certain that there will be at least three teams who finish with fewer than 35 points.

 

[G.B]

Although we beat Newcastle we didn't play well which doesn't fill me confidence for the rest of the seeson. To be honest I think we'll struggle to stay up.

You'll be alright mate. Better fucking be after that.

Thing is, even if you stay up you'll more than likely go through the same shite next season. You're like us a few years back, except nobody gives a shit cos you're Sunderland.

Also, you battered us despite not being a very good side. Change of managers will see you through again, I reckon. But y'all need a proper long term plan rather than doing htis nonsense every year.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

We might actually do this... That's a fucking fantastic and so so vital win.

Kudos to Leicester too, also, Sunderland are fucked.

 

[last request]

West Brom play Pool, Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea in their last 6 games, and up next they have Crystal Palace away who have won 4 out of their last 5. That is one tough run in.

 

[mistermagic]

With everybody suddenly waking up, I'm tempted to put a bit of cash on Hull finishing bottom. Leicester are now just 3 points behind after their win at WBA.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

That's what came up in my predictions, I think the only change to those are adding 3 points to us, and taking 3 off Spurs.

 

[Skinner]

West Brom play Pool, Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea in their last 6 games, and up next they have Crystal Palace away who have won 4 out of their last 5. That is one tough run in.

We could win ten on the bounce but Pulis will still beat us.

 

[Storzy]

Sunderland need a mass clear out and maybe relegation would be opportunity to do just that?

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Sunderland need a mass clear out and maybe relegation would be opportunity to do just that?

True, but recently getting relegated hasn't ended well for the teams who've gone.

Wolves - double relegation (fair enough, looking good again now)
Blackburn - Turned into a shit Championship team
Cardiff - See above
Birmingham - Really should have gone down by now, fair play to Rowett for sorting that mess out.
Bolton - See Blackburn/Cardiff, but a bit worse, close to relegation more than once.
Reading - See above.
Fulham - See above, but slightly worse again.
Wigan - Looking to do a double relegation.
Blackpool - Will be plying their trade in League 1 next season.

Obviously in some of these cases there's been certain circumstances that have fucked them outside of footballing matters. But that's 6 recently relegated sides who've fared badly. The only ones down there at the moment who are doing ok are Norwich.

 

[Storzy]

True, but recently getting relegated hasn't ended well for the teams who've gone.

I don't disagree necessarily and it's a good point, but Sunderland need to find away to get rid of a good chunk of their players. Relegation tends to result in that, which can as you say have negative consequences. Something has to happen to break this cycle of shit.

 

[Hank]

Yep we're going down and we need to get rid of the shite and start over again. Jase is right the Championship is tough but we can't go on like this, we need to change from top to bottom.

 

[Super_horns]

Hull to go for me

 

[JimJams]

Leicester have about as good a run of games to the end of the season as could be hoped for really. Chelsea aside, there's no real ties where points are likely unattainable. Of the 7 games only 2 are away and that's Burnley and Sunderland. QPR at home last game of the season too. Basically Leicester absolutely must win the games vs QPR and Burnley and that alone could be enough just looking at some of the fixtures that Hull and Sunderland have left. Leicester have:
Swansea H
Burnley A
Chelsea H
Newcastle H
Southampton H
Sunderland A
QPR H

Hopefully it's gonna be interesting. If Leicester don't pick up the win at Burnley and get nothing from those next 3, it won't be unfortunately. But just a win v the Clarets could be enough to keep the hope alive as Newcastles form is fucking horrendous. Here's hoping.

 

[Pyeman]

It's conceivable that only one of the current bottom three will go down, which is a vastly different scenario to the one people [including myself] were predicting even just a few weeks ago.

No matter what happens, I think the one thing we can be sure of is that it's going to be interesting right up until the last day of the season, when Leicester face QPR and we're up against Villa, whereas Sunderland have Chelsea and Hull have United.

I haven't got a Scooby Doo what's going to happen.

 

[Blitzballer]

Villa not down, especially with this guy on fire at the moment. Still think Villa will beat Liverpool at Wembley also.
Can't fault Sherwood

 

[mistermagic]

Ok, 6 games to go and the candidates to go down are quite clear now.

Matchday 32:
West Brom 2-3 Leicester
Tottenham 0-1 Aston Villa
Sunderland 1-4 Crystal Palace
Southampton 2-0 Hull City
QPR vs Chelsea
Burnley 0-1 Arsenal

The big game of yesterday was Leicester winning at West Brom closing the gap between the bottom spot and safety to only 3 points and 3 goals. A terrific result as everybody else lost bar Villa. Quite surprised to find out that this was Villa's 5th away win which is the highest total of the bottom half.

Table:
14.West Brom 33 pts -16
15.Aston Villa 32 pts -21 (+1)
16.Sunderland 29 pts -23
17.Hull City 28 pts -16
18.QPR 26 pts -20
19.Burnley 26 pts -24
20.Leicester 25 pts -19 (-1)

Run-in:
West Brom: Crystal Palace (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (a), Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a).
Aston Villa: Man City (a), Everton (h), West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Burnley (h).
Sunderland: Stoke (a), Southampton (h), Everton (a), Leicester (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a).
Hull City: Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (h), Tottenham (a), Man Utd (h).
QPR: Chelsea (h), West Ham (h), Liverpool (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a).
Burnley: Everton (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Hull City (a), Stoke (h), Aston Villa (a).
Leicester: Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (h), Southampton (h), Sunderland (a), QPR (h).

Really surprised at West Brom under Pulis. Losing two 6-pointers at home to QPR and Leicester back-to-back when two wins would have seen them safe is strange especially as these games were the easiest points they could get on paper given their fixture list. Sunderland and Hull have the same problem although Sunderland host Leicester and Hull play at home to Burnley so they could get points from there.
Will they be in front of them by the time the games are played though? QPR look revigorated. Their run-in doesn't look too kind but they've shown character with 4 points from two trips to the Hawthorns and Villa Park. I can see them grabbing a point against Chelsea this afternoon.
Burnley and Leicester really look to have destiny in their own hands. Both have three 6-pointers including one where they face each other.

If I had to predict now I'd say Burnley, Sunderland and Hull to go down.

I love this time of year.

 

[last request]

WBA have the hardest run in, but I think too many teams would have to overhaul them for Brom to go down (4 out of the 6 below them).

I agree tbh MM, I'd say Burnley, Sunderland and Hull right now. Can see QPR getting something against Chelsea today. From a selfish point of view Arsenal's form and win yesterday should at least mean Chelsea are on their toes today though.

 

[mistermagic]

Update

Matchday 32:
West Brom 2-3 Leicester
Tottenham 0-1 Aston Villa
Sunderland 1-4 Crystal Palace
Southampton 2-0 Hull City
QPR 0-1 Chelsea
Burnley 0-1 Arsenal

Table:
14.West Brom 33 pts -16
15.Aston Villa 32 pts -21 (+1)
16.Sunderland 29 pts -23
17.Hull City 28 pts -16
18.QPR 26 pts -21 (+1)
19.Burnley 26 pts -24
20.Leicester 25 pts -19 (-1)

Run-in:
West Brom: Crystal Palace (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (a), Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a).
Aston Villa: Man City (a), Everton (h), West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Burnley (h).
Sunderland: Stoke (a), Southampton (h), Everton (a), Leicester (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a).
Hull City: Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (h), Tottenham (a), Man Utd (h).
QPR: West Ham (h), Liverpool (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a).
Burnley: Everton (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Hull City (a), Stoke (h), Aston Villa (a).
Leicester: Swansea (h), Burnley (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (h), Southampton (h), Sunderland (a), QPR (h).

 

[JustinQPR]

Urgh. It's the fucking hope that kills you.

 

[HarvSFC]

True, but recently getting relegated hasn't ended well for the teams who've gone.

Wolves - double relegation (fair enough, looking good again now)
Blackburn - Turned into a shit Championship team
Cardiff - See above
Birmingham - Really should have gone down by now, fair play to Rowett for sorting that mess out.
Bolton - See Blackburn/Cardiff, but a bit worse, close to relegation more than once.
Reading - See above.
Fulham - See above, but slightly worse again.
Wigan - Looking to do a double relegation.
Blackpool - Will be plying their trade in League 1 next season.

Obviously in some of these cases there's been certain circumstances that have fucked them outside of footballing matters. But that's 6 recently relegated sides who've fared badly. The only ones down there at the moment who are doing ok are Norwich.

Getting relegated to League 1 seems the best route for former Premier League clubs to take. It rejuvinated Norwich, Southampton and now Wolves.