there's an election

[Bobbin']

Voting by proxy for the first time since leaving England. Voting Labour but think I'd be most happy with a tiny Conservative majority. One or two sould be perfect.

It would destroy their mandate for brexit, making May much weaker in the process but they would still have to struggle on for at least a few years , allowing brexit to do the damage it will inevitably cause to the economy. But without the votes to seriously damage civil liberties make further savage cuts.

Hopefully would damage the Tories enough for successive Labour governments.

Very sad that you WANT brexit to be a failure just so you can say I told you so.

 

[Aber gas]

It's obviously not true and it's only 'temporary'.

Expect her to have made a miraculous recovery on Friday morning should Labour win.

She's been diagnosed with a serious and long term debilitating illness.
Hopefully she will recover.
Best wishes Dianne.

 

[Bobbin']

She's been diagnosed with a serious and long term debilitating illness.
Hopefully she will recover.
Best wishes Dianne.

It is understood that Abbott has recently been diagnosed with a long-term health condition, which her doctors have been attempting to manage.

However, it is non-life threatening, and not deemed serious enough to impair her ability to take on the job of home secretary if Labour wins the election.

Diane Abbott says she will be back in action soon after it was announced she was "taking a break" from campaigning.

The shadow home secretary tweeted: "Touched by all the messages of support. Still standing! Will rejoin the fray soon. Vote Labour!"

It's a desperate move to try and claw back any lost voters because of her incompetency. I don't blame them for it but that's what it is.

 

[Boletus Edulis]

Psephologically for me this has been the hardest one to call since 1992. My best guess is that the Tories will get a slightly bigger majority, but not the size May wanted, but what do I know. To be quite frank this one could go in quite a few different directions from Labour as largest party (highly unlikely but vaguely possible) through to working Conservative majority of 80 plus.

May has not run a good campaign, there have been a number of policy and presentation cock-ups and I think for many the spoof poster "strong and stable - my arse", sums it up. I did say at the outset that she had gone for too long a campaign, personally I am quite bored, and all that has happened is that Labour appear to have narrowed the gap.

Obviously what will be key is the targetting strategy at the constituency level, and I suspect this has been better for the Tories than the national campaign.

I don't think that Labour have necessarily had a good campaign, but compared with the low expectations it has not been as poor as expected, so it feels better. Labour's Manifesto has populist elements to it that are attractive to many.

There has been a different approach from both of the main parties. The Conservatives have clearly campaigned to win seats from the other parties, for example, May has visited more Labour seats than Conservative. Compared to this acquistional approach, Labour has taken a largely mobilise the faithful approach. For example, Corbyn has barely visited non-Labour seats. I would not be at all surprised if Labout wrack up some very big majorities in their safe seats.

The final result will be shaped by a number of variables:

1) What will happen to the other parties? Will the UKIP vote go to the Conservatives or just simply not turn out? Will the SNP lose a few seats, and if so to whom? The Lib Dems look to make no national vote inroads, but will their constituency targetting bear fruit? Will any independents get elected, such as the Doctor challenging a Tory?
2) What will be the effect, if any, of the referendum? Will brexit or remain become a new factor shaping voting behaviour?
3) The age range most likely to vote are the over -65s, will the pension issues have an effect?
4).The least likely to vote are under 25s, but will Labour's commitment to end tuition fees this year bring them out in droves, and if so in which constituencies?

I am bored because of the length of the campaign, but what promised to be a forgone conclusion has become very interesting, and make fundamentally change British election politics for years. So like Janus I am facing two ways at the same time: bored and excited; Tories doing well, Labour doing well; and its all different and its still the same!

 

[Boletus Edulis]

Labour battling hard in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport. Very good chance of labour taking that seat

The fact that May has visited the seat twice suggests that the Tory campaign managers agree with you.

The personal vote usually works to the benefit of the incumbent, but Oliver Colville is not many people's cup of tea, whereas Luke Pollard has been an effective campaigner locally for a number of years.

What could be key is whether the young vote turns out. The University term has finished, will many be around still or will they have got postal votes?

 

[Laker]

Sorry for Abbott's health (if the reasoning is true) but it definitely improves Corbyn's campaign to have her out the way.

 

[Boletus Edulis]

It would probably help Corbyn's campaign if Corbyn was kept out of the way too.

 

[Aber gas]

It would probably help Corbyn's campaign if Corbyn was kept out of the way too.

This wouldn't even be a contest without Corbyn. The manifesto, the campaign, everything comes from his leadership of the party. Your comment is very strange. Do you honestly think that Owen Smith or Liz Kendall would be more successful?

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

This wouldn't even be a contest without Corbyn. The manifesto, the campaign, everything comes from his leadership of the party. Your comment is very strange. Do you honestly think that Owen Smith or Liz Kendall would be more successful?

Yes.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

It's a desperate move to try and claw back any lost voters because of her incompetency. I don't blame them for it but that's what it is.

Unless you have access to Diane Abbott's medical records it's probably best not to accuse her party of lying about her ill health. I think it's really rather tasteless.

I nearly posted last night that I thought she looked ill. In fact, I was surprised no one had mentioned it as a possibility in terms of her "performance". Generally speaking, I think there's something a little unsavoury about the way she's treated in the media (I'm quite doubtful, whether a white man, or, indeed a white woman's gaffes would receive the same kind of attention that hers do). I mean, obviously people are entitled to think she's a complete wally (and there is some supporting evidence on this front) but the tone of some of the criticism makes me feel a bit uncomfortable.

 

[Techno Natch]

Yes.

Troll.

 

[Aber gas]

Yes.

She wouldn't llamas. I actually don't mind her ( compared to the more obnoxious slugs in the party) but it's just different shades of beige. There isn't a chance that this magnificent manifesto would have come about under her leadership. I know it's the centrist's dream to have someone like her as leader but Corbyn's great strength that he and his circle provide a stark choice from the Tories. I'm sure Liz would too but not enough to make the difference.

 

[Jockney]

She (Abbott) certainly looked under the weather when I saw her on Saturday. Spent most of the time sitting down, but still got up to meet and greet people who approached her.

This speculation about her illness pure diversion, sowed by the media and her detractors. She is my local MP, and I certainly have concrete criticisms of her, but the way she has been turned into a proverbial whipping-boy during this election cycle is the clearest example of racist-misogynistic dog-whistling I've ever seen.

As an aside: Paul Mason's bollocks about May's mental health is also tasteless and makes him look gauche as fuck.

 

[Stringy]

I used to think Abbott was a bit of a plonker but then I watched her on Come Dine With Me and she was a very nice woman. She gave decent marks even when the meals were crap.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

She wouldn't llamas. I actually don't mind her ( compared to the more obnoxious slugs in the party) but it's just different shades of beige. There isn't a chance that this magnificent manifesto would have come about under her leadership. I know it's the centrist's dream to have someone like her as leader but Corbyn's great strength that he and his circle provide a stark choice from the Tories. I'm sure Liz would too but not enough to make the difference.

I agree with that bit. Kendall I detest for the record. But she'd undoubtedly have a broader appeal. I hate to say it G, but I think you're in for an unwelcome surprise tomorrow.

 

[Veggie Legs]

After a disconcerting recent bout of optimism, I'm now firmly back in full on dread mode so far as this election is concerned. I've just got an awful feeling that Labour will rack up votes in safe seats and the Tories will effectively target marginals and emerge with a huge great majority. Doesn't help that I keep immersing myself in lots of nonsense people are saying online (not here, elsewhere), which probably amounts to little more than rumour and hearsay. Quite a large part of me is quite happy I feel this way though. Feel reasonably prepared for the inevitable CRUSHING DISAPPOINTMENT.

This is exactly how I feel too - Aber gas got to me for a while but now pessimism has resumed. 100+ seat Conservative majority on the way.

 

[Aber gas]

This is exactly how I feel too - Aber gas got to me for a while but now pessimism has resumed. 100+ seat Conservative majority on the way.

Nothing wrong with a bit of reverse jinxing/ psychology lads. Say no more

 

[Stringy]

I hope that the Brexit debacle finally mobilises those younger voters.

My grandma was saying to me how she voted Brexit 'for my future.'

She's 68 and I have a Master's degree. I can vote on my own future.

 

[BeesKnees]

I'm expecting at least 80 majority.

As for Abbott, it has been clear for some time that she is unwell, she had to miss some very important parliamentary votes earlier in the year as well. Her slurred speech and hesitancy in recent interviews is not typical of her, regardless of whether you think she is any good, which I dont.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Christ, you lot are gloomy on Election Eve!

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Christ, you lot are gloomy on Election Eve!

Realistic mate. I'm expecting a 40-70 Tory majority.

 

[Aber gas]

Christ, you lot are gloomy on Election Eve!

Not me comrade. Chipper as ever. Every person got a leaflet on the trains to and from work. Everybody in Newport station got one, even the grumpy, Tory looking ones. It's going to be close but I have a feeling....

 

[TheMinsterman]

This wouldn't even be a contest without Corbyn. The manifesto, the campaign, everything comes from his leadership of the party. Your comment is very strange. Do you honestly think that Owen Smith or Liz Kendall would be more successful?

All this has demonstrated is that if the children hadn't spat their dummies out and worked with Corbyn and really accentuated his strengths and given him a better shadow cabinet and less chaos leading into this we would very likely be getting a Labour government instead of praying for a Tory minority or a shock Labour win.

 

[Techno Natch]

I agree with that bit. Kendall I detest for the record. But she'd undoubtedly have a broader appeal. I hate to say it G, but I think you're in for an unwelcome surprise tomorrow.

I'm really not sure that's the case with Kendell at all. She's a no mark and even more people would have gone with the status quo had she ran in my opinion. What would be the difference between her and Ed Millband?

I'm not saying that I've been optimistic but I think saying Liz Kendal would have won over more hearts is far from the mark.

 

[Aber gas]

All this has demonstrated is that if the children hadn't spat their dummies out and worked with Corbyn and really accentuated his strengths and given him a better shadow cabinet and less chaos leading into this we would very likely be getting a Labour government instead of praying for a Tory minority or a shock Labour win.

Yep, the childish, self perpetuating nonsense of the slugs has played its part. Whatever the result there is going to be a reckoning within the party.

 

[markwwfc1992]

My mum, who has never gambled in her life has just text me to put £10 on Corbyn to be PM

 

[Laker]

I do get frustrated when criticism of a black person is labelled as racist so freely.

They were beyond average gaffes, she was barely comprehensible on the Sky News interview. And how can anyone defend her police radio interview? It's not racist, it's just criticism.

This level of political correctness really isn't helpful.

 

[Blitzballer]

Jack Dromey just knocked my door. Pleasant guy

 

[Blitzballer]

Told him his wife is minging though

 

[Jockney]

I'm really not sure that's the case with Kendell at all. She's a no mark and even more people would have gone with the status quo had she ran in my opinion. What would be the difference between her and Ed Millband?

I'm not saying that I've been optimistic but I think saying Liz Kendal would have won over more hearts is far from the mark.

Not to mention that she was the Blairite candidate. A faction that has almost no sway within the PLP anymore, never mind the rest of the country.

Heard somewhere, and without any concrete source nor verification, that Chuka Umunna and Yvette Cooper are deadlocked in a battle to run against JC for leadership after the General Election. I mean, how deluded are these people?