there's an election

[smat]

^^ on the other hand, even if it is downhill from here, at least we can all savour the thought of genuine panic seizing CCHQ for a night or two

 

[Aber gas]

Oh blimey! Don't do this! I'd reconciled myself to a huge Tory majority. Don't let me get my hopes up, they'll only be HORRIBLY DASHED

Oh my fucking god. Can you imagine my smug level if the unthinkable happens? I mean, I'll try and not be a c*** but y'know..

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

m8, if the unthinkable happens you can be as much of a c*** as you like, i'll defo not be complaining!

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Oh my fucking god. Can you imagine my smug level if the unthinkable happens? I mean, I'll try and not be a c*** but y'know..

I won't...

 

[Aber gas]

Seriously though brothers and sisters we need a right push now. Get out campaigning if you can ( you don't have to be a Labour member) hand out leaflets, get a board or poster. If you're not comfy with that just talk to your friends/ colleagues/ family. We need these Tories reigned in before they cause damage that will take generations to fix.
For the many.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

Oh my fucking god. Can you imagine my smug level if the unthinkable happens? I mean, I'll try and not be a c*** but y'know..

We've been planning to use the two weeks where everyone is depressed about elections, and five more years of Tories and suddenly becomes interested in grassroots campaigns against state violence as an opportunity to fundraise. Gonna be livid* if Corbyn fucks up all our plans by winning ffs.

*not really, but also kinda

 

[BeesKnees]

Sun newspaper smear on Corbyn is based on evidence from a guy who was refused the right to testify after the judge called him a practiced deceiver
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7924601.stm

 

[Benji]

Good speech by Corbyn. Managed to tread the line of the worries raised by smat and others as well as addressing the fundamental issues with British foreign policy. I'm sure I don't agree with him on absolutely everything, but I think it would be just splendid if he were our next Prime Minister.

 

[Aber gas]

We've been planning to use the two weeks where everyone is depressed about elections, and five more years of Tories and suddenly becomes interested in grassroots campaigns against state violence as an opportunity to fundraise. Gonna be livid* if Corbyn fucks up all our plans by winning ffs.

*not really, but also kinda

If Corbyn gets elected the need for organising is still going to be vital. The reactionary backlash will be massive. I'm not suddenly going to drop the antifa/ anti raids/ community defence because of Corbyn. Perhaps there could be an opportunity to convert the genuine momentum into a wider interest in grass roots activism.

 

[Abertawe]

It was good. Unfortunately the narrative was set by the BBC before the speech was even delivered. They then got Micheal Falllon and the guy who dealt wit counter terrorist legislation under Blair to chat absolute shite. Jezza will always chat what he perceives to be truth (and he is nearly always right when you break it down) but why give them the ammunition to manipulate a populace who only get their views from snippets & headlines? Save it for the 'debates' that are set unfold when he'll have a proper audience present his truth free of distortion.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

If Corbyn gets elected the need for organising is still going to be vital. The reactionary backlash will be massive. I'm not suddenly going to drop the antifa/ anti raids/ community defence because of Corbyn. Perhaps there could be an opportunity to convert the genuine momentum into a wider interest in grass roots activism.

Yeah, totally.

Hesitant to say this because I know there's a load of reasons a labour win would be ace for loads of my pals who are suffering badly under the Tories, but if Corbyn wins there's going to be a massive sense of "job done" from a substantial section of the left. Or even worse, they'll end up defending decisions made by Corbyn that actively harm my comrades - because we need to "defend socialism".

Those of us organising against that are going to be viewed as a purity cult - at best - and at worst undercovers or stooges for the CIA.

Certainly not saying I'd prefer the Tories win, but I'm certainly not that optimistic for socialist possibility under Corbyn.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

The IFS ripping into both parties at the moment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40057115

IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson said neither manifesto gave voters an honest set of choices or addressed the long-term challenges the UK faced.

Labour

"For Labour, we can have pretty much everything - free higher education, free childcare, more spending on pay, health, infrastructure. And the pretence is that can all be funded by faceless corporations and 'the rich'," he said.

"There is a choice we can make as a country to have a bigger state - that would not make us unusual in international terms. But that comes at a cost in higher taxes, which would inevitably need to be borne by large numbers of us."

"Labour's manifesto in fact commits it to cancelling only a small minority of cuts... changing this would require finding several billion pounds extra from somewhere," the IFS said.

Labour's calculations that £49bn a year could be raised from the wealthiest individuals and companies were flawed and would raise £40bn at most in the short term, and less in the long term, it said.



Tories

Meanwhile, the Conservatives offered spending cuts the party had already promised, Mr Emmerson said.

"Additional funding pledges for the NHS and schools are just confirming that spending would rise in a way broadly consistent with the March Budget," he told a briefing in London on Friday.

"Compared with Labour, they are offering a relatively smaller state and consequently lower taxes. With that offer come unacknowledged risks to the quality of public services, and tough choices over spending."

The IFS said the Tory plans "imply at least another five years of austerity, with the continuation of planned welfare cuts and serious pressures on the public services including on the NHS".

The Conservatives' plan to impose what the IFS called "very big cuts" to working-age welfare benefits would save £11bn annually by 2021-22, but would significantly cut the incomes of the poorest working age households.

 

[smat]

Bit more sobering from the Guardian:

The Times says its YouGov poll (see11.07am), if replicated at a general election, would give the Conservatives a majority of just two.

But there is some better news for the Tories tonight. Two polling experts who are running sophisticated models to try to predict the election result have updated their figures are they both point to Theresa May securing a very big win.

Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman who is now a polling specialist, is running a model based on multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP (don’t ask.) He says his model now implies a majority of 142.

Based on an update survey conducted at the height of the “dementia tax” controversy following the Conservative manifesto launch, the combined probabilities currently give the Tories a total of 396 seats (down from 406 last week), or an implied potential majority of 142.

The model allows us to see the likelihood of different outcomes in each turnout scenario, as shown in the graph below. If turnout next month matches that of the last general election, there is currently a 23% chance of the Tories winning a majority between 140 and 159, a 36% chance of a majority between 160 and 179, and a 19% chance of a majority of 180 to 199. If we base the model on all those who say they voted in the EU referendum – which includes greater numbers of demographic types who incline more towards Labour – the biggest probability (34%) is of a majority between 80 and 99.

And Steve Fisher, the Oxford psephologist who works with John Curtice on the BBC exit poll, has a “combined forecast” that takes account of all the systematic forecasts available, based on polling, betting and wisdom-of-the-crowds predictions. His team’s latest combined forecast is for a Tory majority of 100.

Only one poll conducted since the attacks has been published, so most of the changes in the opinion poll data, and the models that are built on them, reflect polls conducted late last week; shortly after the Conservative manifesto launch and mostly before Theresa May’s announcement of a cap on social care funding. Those polls showed a considerable tightening of the Conservative lead and so a reduction in the predicted Tory majority.

Overall, our combined forecast of the Conservative majority has dropped to 100, down from 123 last week and from 132 two weeks ago.

 

[Renegade]

Andrew Neil being a reet c*** at the moment.

IRA IRA IRA IRA IRA

 

[Stevencc]

Trying his best to make Corbyn look a c*** and failing.

"Shouldn't the voters listen to the people that know you? Here's quotes from three people that don't like you".

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

this interview ambush is kind of a guilty pleasure

https://twitter.com/HichamYezza/status/868182862415228929

 

[BeesKnees]

this interview ambush is kind of a guilty pleasure

https://twitter.com/HichamYezza/status/868182862415228929

Beat me to it.
Love the way he continues without listening to the interviewer. Shows what an arse he is.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

These Tories are a fucking shambles.

Does Corbyn project an aura that forces everyone in his vicinity to own themselves horribly?

Theresa May's plan to go into hiding for the election campaign would have been a smart one, if she'd pulled it off.

 

[markwwfc1992]

Just a conspiricy theory but with the polls seemingly getting closer could it prove to be counter productive? I mean if the polls show a massive lead for the Tories for example, it could give a message to a half arsed tory voter that they don't need to bother going out to vote, thinking it's a done deal. If the polls are a lot closer (like the currently seem to be), it might encourage the said voter to think 'oh shit, maybe I do need to go out and vote to make sure the tories win after all'. Again it works both ways, and if Labour look like they're in with a chance then people who said before, "I'd vote labour but they have no chance so I wont bother wasting my time" may actually go out and vote Labour.

Either way the bigger turnout we have the better. If we had a big turnout in the last EU referendum (especially young voters) I doubt we'd even be having this general election now.

 

[Renegade]

Didn't more people vote in last year's referendum than any general election in history*? We didn't need this GE, May saw a chance to consolidate her power for an extra two years and gain a stronger mandate with the opposition polling at historic lows. Let's hope it backfires on the opportunistic witch.

That said, I don't think the voting numbers this year will even approach the EU Referendum numbers, there might be less of a turnout than 2015.

* possibly just recent history, but I remember a large turnout.

 

[NorfolkWomble]

vote labour

 

[BeesKnees]

vote labour

And get this [emoji6]

 

[Veggie Legs]

Nice Full Fact analysis of grammar schools, concluding in what anyone interested in evidence has known all along: selection is good for people who go to grammar schools (mostly rich kids) and very bad for people who don't (mostly poor kids). https://fullfact.org/education/grammar-schools-and-social-mobility-whats-evidence/

 

[smat]

Corbyn is on the defensive now, releasing statements responding to Theresa May's accusations. Can't remember where I read it but someone made the case recently that, because most people aren't very engaged with politics, the most important coverage in elections is at the very top of the 6 o'clock news, and that's why Labour were having a good campaign. If what people are hearing is "Labour are pledging to abolish tuition fees..." etc then that's the message that will cut through. Now they're going to hear "Jeremy Corbyn has rejected claims that he is a danger to national security," which is, erm, not as good.

The headlines should be "Theresa May has denied that cutting 19,000 police officers led to Britain being unsafe," or something. He's let her off the hook.

 

[Ian_Wrexham]

And get this [emoji6]

What the fuck have I just watched?

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Didn't more people vote in last year's referendum than any general election in history? Possibly just recent history, but I remember a large turnout.

Only very recent history, TBF. Turnout was about 72%. That's higher than the figures for the general elections we've had from 2001 onwards, but it's still rather crap given the magnitude of the event. As a point of comparison, turnout was 85% for the referendum on Scottish independence. It's also quite poor in a historical context. Between 1922 and 1997, turnout for general elections was almost always well over 70%.

The "more/most" stat you have in mind may be the one about more people voting for Leave than anything else in our democratic history. This owes very little to turnout. It's a combination of (a) population growth, and (b) the referendum offering a simple "yes or no" type question, which meant the vote wasn't split across multiple parties. Also, the % of spoiled ballots was eventually rounded down to zero.

Mark's contention that a higher turnout among young people could have swung the result strikes me as fairly sound.

 

[Benji]

Corbyn is on the defensive now, releasing statements responding to Theresa May's accusations. Can't remember where I read it but someone made the case recently that, because most people aren't very engaged with politics, the most important coverage in elections is at the very top of the 6 o'clock news, and that's why Labour were having a good campaign. If what people are hearing is "Labour are pledging to abolish tuition fees..." etc then that's the message that will cut through. Now they're going to hear "Jeremy Corbyn has rejected claims that he is a danger to national security," which is, erm, not as good.

The headlines should be "Theresa May has denied that cutting 19,000 police officers led to Britain being unsafe," or something. He's let her off the hook.

They will always find a way to attack him, regardless of what he says or does. Just look at this:

 

[Aber gas]

They will always find a way to attack him, regardless of what he says or does. Just look at this:

Oh god, when's that from? I can feel the slimy, sexually awkward desperation seeping through in every word of this hackery.
Folk actually get paid for this

 

[Renegade]

Only very recent history, TBF. Turnout was about 72%. That's higher than the figures for the general elections we've had from 2001 onwards, but it's still rather crap given the magnitude of the event. As a point of comparison, turnout was 85% for the referendum on Scottish independence. It's also quite poor in a historical context. Between 1922 and 1997, turnout for general elections was almost always well over 70%.

The "more/most" stat you have in mind may be the one about more people voting for Leave than anything else in our democratic history. This owes very little to turnout. It's a combination of (a) population growth, and (b) the referendum offering a simple "yes or no" type question, which meant the vote wasn't split across multiple parties. Also, the % of spoiled ballots was eventually rounded down to zero.

Mark's contention that a higher turnout among young people could have swung the result strikes me as fairly sound.

Ah yes, that's exactly the stat I was thinking of, I stand corrected. 72% is the best turnout since 1992, but yes, nothing special. Not sure if it's fair to compare the UK population of ~65 million to the Scottish population of ~5 million mind you. I think General Election turnouts > 70% are probably a thing of the past given the levels of disenfranchisement and the population growth. Peace time vs war time voting may also be a factor in the turnout.

I misconstrued Mark's point (tired/drunk), he's probably correct in his assertion. Anyway, expecting close to record lows in Northern Ireland myself.

 

[Benji]

Oh god, when's that from? I can feel the slimy, sexually awkward desperation seeping through in every word of this hackery.
Folk actually get paid for this

Today or yesterday, I think. You'd think there were more pertinent things to write about this week, but at least they know their audience.