Stickied Transfer Rumours 2018/19

[HarvSFC]

Is Alisson from our ladies team?

 

[Bilo]

Here's an interesting thread on why he's so highly rated:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1018690630992658432

 

[big mean bunny]

That thread is fairly meaningless hipster stat driven and fanboy flamboyance though to its hilt. Talks about forward passes with no context of formation or amount of pressing from forwards that they were made under. Talks about reflexes which is pretty much the only keeper attribute he breaks down.

The guy is a great keeper on last year, strong footwork, good positioning and awareness and seems to have no weak side tendencies, but I dont know what that thread is other than rapid Liverpool global fans tossing each other off.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

The price tag is quite ridiculous when he’d clearly be Karius’ replacement, but, is he that much better than Karius (or even Ward for that matter).. I’m not sure. For £60 million he really needs to be, but I think Liverpool fans will be disappointed. Every time I’ve seen him, he looks very suspect from crosses and this also occurred at the World Cup. A team with any sense will launch balls into the box regularly to make it uncomfortable for him.

 

[Bilo]

That thread is fairly meaningless hipster stat driven and fanboy flamboyance though to its hilt. Talks about forward passes with no context of formation or amount of pressing from forwards that they were made under. Talks about reflexes which is pretty much the only keeper attribute he breaks down.

The guy is a great keeper on last year, strong footwork, good positioning and awareness and seems to have no weak side tendencies, but I dont know what that thread is other than rapid Liverpool global fans tossing each other off.

I thought it was quite helpful actually, especially the part about expected goals against and in general comparing the numbers to other top rated goalkeepers.

I mean I know every Wolves fan on the planet has watched Sporting week in week out for the past five years but in general this is the type of stuff you're looking for re players you haven't watched very much.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

I thought it was quite helpful actually, especially the part about expected goals against and in general comparing the numbers to other top rated goalkeepers.

I mean I know every Wolves fan on the planet has watched Sporting week in week out for the past five years but in general this is the type of stuff you're looking for re players you haven't watched very much.

You really can’t compare goalkeepers with one another if they’re in different leagues. The quality is different (like comparing the French League with the Premier League), the players in front of them are different, the pressure can be different too.
Goals against doesn’t really tell you much either. If they’re not going in, it’s quite often down to the defence and if they are going in, what kind of goals were they? Were they.. 30 yard thunderbolts? Were they from corners? Were they tap ins? etc etc. Then of course it begs the question of.. was the keeper’s positioning as good as it could have been? Was he slow in reacting to the situation? Did he make himself as big as possible when 1 on 1 or did he fall forward?
You can’t work off stats as there are so many different factors that come into play.

 

[G.B]

I thought we were done with the numbers game Beelo mate. You'll be sick when you realise we've signed a better keeper for £4mil.

 

[Bilo]

You really can’t compare goalkeepers with one another if they’re in different leagues. The quality is different (like comparing the French League with the Premier League), the players in front of them are different, the pressure can be different too.
Goals against doesn’t really tell you much either. If they’re not going in, it’s quite often down to the defence and if they are going in, what kind of goals were they? Were they.. 30 yard thunderbolts? Were they from corners? Were they tap ins? etc etc. Then of course it begs the question of.. was the keeper’s positioning as good as it could have been? Was he slow in reacting to the situation? Did he make himself as big as possible when 1 on 1 or did he fall forward?
You can’t work off stats as there are so many different factors that come into play.

I find that expected goals against is a rather good stat (it takes all that you mentioned into account). I agree goals against isn't but then again I didn't mention that. Nor does the thread except for in context.

Truth is most of us, bordering everyone, will have watched Alisson a very limited number of times. And then stats rather than youtube compilations is certainly useful, in my opinion.

 

[Bilo]

For the record, I'm not entirely convinced spending over £60m on a goalkeeper is sensible either. I just think stats can be useful when you haven't watched a player a lot, like most of us won't have.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

I find that expected goals against is a rather good stat (it takes all that you mentioned into account). I agree goals against isn't but then again I didn't mention that. Nor does the thread except for in context.

Truth is most of us, bordering everyone, will have watched Alisson a very limited number of times. And then stats rather than youtube compilations is certainly useful, in my opinion.

Expected goals against and goals against are basically the same thing as they both use the same stats from the previous season.
YouTube compilations help when reviewing a player’s technique and ability, but don’t help if you’re all about performance consistency.

 

[Bilo]

Expected goals against and goals against are basically the same thing as they both use the same stats from the previous season.

This makes absolutely no sense. Goals against is one stat, isolated, expected goals against is a calculation based on a number of things such as shots and where they were taken from.

But ok fair enough you've watched him enough to form an opinion, I haven't. So I thought the thread was interesting because I don't know much about him. That's pretty much it.

Now Geeb will say I called Alisson world class based on his stats.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

This makes absolutely no sense.

Sure it does. If a keeper conceded 30 goals the previous season (goals against), then the ‘expected goals against’ guesstimation would work off this number. It means very little. Especially when he’d be coming into an entirely new country and league.

 

[Bilo]

If a keeper conceded 30 goals the previous season (goals against), then the ‘expected goals against’ guesstimation would work off this number.

This is downright incorrect. xGA doesn't take the actual amount of goals conceded into account at all, it's based on the shots taken.

"Expected goals (xG) are computed by identifying the position a shot was taken from and calculating the likelihood that a player would score from that position. This same metric is used to measure xGA."

 

[Renegade]

xG is a very useful stat. If a player has a good goals against relative to the xG his defence faces, it implies the goalkeeper is saving a lot of gilt-edged chances. It's also a much better metric than shots, shots on target and even sometimes goals when determining the flow of a game (which side was on top). It's not perfect, but it does tell you more than the basic statistics we've been working with for decades.

Does xG factor in the position of the goalkeeper or defenders relative to the player taking the shot at all?

 

[Steve_Wafc]

This is downright incorrect. xGA doesn't take the actual amount of goals conceded into account at all, it's based on the shots taken.

"Expected goals (xG) are computed by identifying the position a shot was taken from and calculating the likelihood that a player would score from that position. This same metric is used to measure xGA."

What haha? That is just bizarre. That’s more about the shooter than the keeper. If he strikes it right down the keeper’s throat, that counts as a save and an easy one at that (unless you’re Karius), which completely messes with the save % and makes a keeper look better than they might be. Conversely, if he strikes it perfectly top right or left, not many keepers will save that, but it will bring his save % down, harshly. So these stats are so meaningless and tell you nothing.

 

[Bilo]

What haha? That is just bizarre. That’s more about the shooter than the keeper. If he strikes it right down the keeper’s throat, that counts as a save and an easy one at that (unless you’re Karius), which completely messes with the save % and makes a keeper look better than they might be. Conversely, if he strikes it perfectly top right or left, not many keepers will save that, but it will bring his save % down, harshly. So these stats are so meaningless and tell you nothing.

Which is an opinion you formed just now since you obviously had no idea what you were talking about five minutes ago.

 

[Bilo]

Does xG factor in the position of the goalkeeper or defenders relative to the player taking the shot at all?

I don't think so, which is why Pope for Burnley had fantastic stats because of how the CBs channeled shots down the middle. But even then I suspect different sites will use different definitions.

But like you said, it's the best we have.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

Which is an opinion you formed just now since you obviously had no idea what you were talking about five minutes ago.

Oh I’ll admit I got the definition wrong, most definitely. I’ve had 10 mins to think about this actual definition though and that’s my reaction to it and I stand by what I’ve said. It’s completely bizarre and tells you nothing. If shots that are right down a keeper’s throat or miss-hit along the ground count towards these stats, then the system has massive flaws. If you want to come up with a proper % then you’d need to watch every shot/goal he faced/conceded and put them into separate categories, identifying which area of the goal the goals were scored.

 

[Bilo]

Oh I’ll admit I got the definition wrong, most definitely. I’ve had 10 mins to think about this actual definition though and that’s my reaction to it and I stand by what I’ve said. It’s completely bizarre and tells you nothing. If shots that are right down a keeper’s throat or miss-hit along the ground count towards these stats, then the system has massive flaws. If you want to come up with a proper % then you’d need to watch every shot/goal he faced/conceded and put them into separate categories, identifying which area of the goal the goals were scored.

Ok mate so out of interest, why do you reckon this stat is held in such high regard globally when you manage to see through it in less than ten minutes?

 

[Steve_Wafc]

Ok mate so out of interest, why do you reckon this stat is held in such high regard globally when you manage to see through it in less than ten minutes?

Who holds it in high regard, apart from fans on Twitter of course? I’m pretty sure professional football staff will actually watch a player and/or watch many videos of said player rather than solely relying on a few bizarre stats.

 

[Benji]

Who holds it in high regard, apart from fans on Twitter of course? I’m pretty sure professional football staff will actually watch a player and/or watch many videos of said player rather than solely relying on a few bizarre stats.

You over-estimate how much time that requires, and how much the game has caught up scientifically.

 

[Bilo]

Who holds it in high regard, apart from fans on Twitter of course? I’m pretty sure professional football staff will actually watch a player and/or watch many videos of said player rather than solely relying on a few bizarre stats.

Well ...

But behind the scenes, many of the more modern coaches and executives have come to see the value of integrating statistical analysis into tactics, transfers and training.

And one of the more prominent metrics that is now filtering out for public consumption is expected goals.

http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/expe...tatistic-explained/1u6ww9f69rhah15ahllye5ketl

It really has been around for some time and is very often referenced to (I have genuinely no idea how you've missed it to the extrent that you have). And of course footballers are watched, but that's not what we're talking about.

 

[Renegade]

Useful article showing the benefits of expected goals and how it can help predict and evaluate performance (pretty spot on about Man Citys weaknesses last summer and Chelsea's regression to the mean, using expected goals as a reliable predictor):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...does-show-man-city-should-win-premier-league/

Key summary:

Why is xG useful?
xG's value is that it gives an indication of whether a team's results are based on sustainable factors like the consistent creation or denial of chances, or whether it is down to less sustainable factors like freakishly high chance conversion or sensational goalkeeping.

It also gives a far more reliable picture as to us the results of individual matches reflected the pattern of play. Take Germany's 7-1 win against Brazil in the 2014 World Cup for instance, in which Brazil actually had more shots and possession, but were way down on xG compared to their opponents.
xG can be thought of as effectively evaluating "chances", whereas "shots on goal" does not discriminate between a 35-yard sighter and a missed open goal from close range.
By analysing every shot from last season and the season before, the STATS team have been able to identify a number of patterns, which we can use to inform how this season might pan out.

 

[Bilo]

And, to WRAP IT UP, this is a stat world class savior of world peace Alisson excels in.

I think it's safe to say the mere link makes us title favorites as of now.

 

[big mean bunny]

I thought it was quite helpful actually, especially the part about expected goals against and in general comparing the numbers to other top rated goalkeepers.

I mean I know every Wolves fan on the planet has watched Sporting week in week out for the past five years but in general this is the type of stuff you're looking for re players you haven't watched very much.

Sorry why have you mentioned Wolves? Are you always this defensive?

 

[Bilo]

Sorry why have you mentioned Wolves? Are you always this defensive?

Sorry, got you mixed up with that other Wolves fan who's been raving about Rui Patricio.

 

[big mean bunny]

Important context when dealing with us is to remember that 3 seasons ago we loaned Grant Holt from a club in the division below us, it's only natural we get excited about signing players that people actually know from Football Manager.

 

[Steve_Wafc]

Well ...



http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/expe...tatistic-explained/1u6ww9f69rhah15ahllye5ketl

It really has been around for some time and is very often referenced to (I have genuinely no idea how you've missed it to the extrent that you have). And of course footballers are watched, but that's not what we're talking about.

I was hoping to be really enlightened reading this and learn something new, but the article doesn’t mention how they’re related to goalkeeping..? It’s all about the goal scorers.

 

[Bilo]

I was hoping to be really enlightened reading this and learn something new, but the article doesn’t mention how they’re related to goalkeeping..? It’s all about the goal scorers.

Expected goals and expected goals against. Do you really need that explained?

 

[Steve_Wafc]

Useful article showing the benefits of expected goals and how it can help predict and evaluate performance (pretty spot on about Man Citys weaknesses last summer and Chelsea's regression to the mean, using expected goals as a reliable predictor):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...does-show-man-city-should-win-premier-league/

Key summary:

But you don’t need in depth stats to work some of that out. You don’t even need to be a genius. Bravo was an awful goalkeeper, if Ederson is not awful, then City have a better chance of winning the league.. groundbreaking. Everyone could see that City had spent well and they were clear favourites to start the season.
Chelsea lost Costa replaced with someone massively inferior to him, Cahill is a year older, Bakayoko will be adapting and Fabregas is ageing, they didn’t look good to begin with.. don’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
It’s like using stats to review last season’s Arsenal defence at the start and saying they won’t win the league. They won’t win the league because they had a terrible defence, individually they’re not great players and Cech’s reactions are not what they used to be.. again you didn’t need in depth stats to tell you that.
Stats do have some use in the game granted, especially for tactics, but the majority of the time they tell you very little as football is an unpredictable game.