US Presidential election 2016

[Tilbury]

Yep, good demographics for Hilary, with a big Hispanic vote. This is obviously very bad for Trump, but would matter more in a general election match up rather than now.
Yeh she's a pretty comfortable 20 points ahead in SC.

 

[Tilbury]

Ted Cruz attacks Obama for not attending Antonin Scalia's funeral. Meanwhile Ted Cruz won't attend the funeral either.
And wow. A national poll that has Bernie 3 points ahead. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...-national-presidential-race-february-18-2016/
It's an outlier, for sure. But at every stage of this campaign we've had improbable predicted results for him and every single time he has gone on to prove them. This is happening, he is going to do it.

 

[Jockney]

Bad results for Bernie in NV and SC, though, and he's all-but out of the race. He needs the minority vote. He has Cornel West but he doesn't have Tamir Rice's mother, Trayvon Martin's mother; he won't get Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson, either. Blacks and latinos don't know him and don't trust him (yet). He needs a big presence in SC, cos that's a gimme for Clinton and even a very close result there could swing the rest of the trail in Sanders' favour.

 

[Alty]

I had to laugh when the two candidates were asked for politicians they admired in the last debate. FDR, Churchill and Mandela. Talk about playing it safe!

 

[Tilbury]

Bad results for Bernie in NV and SC, though, and he's all-but out of the race. He needs the minority vote. He has Cornel West but he doesn't have Tamir Rice's mother, Trayvon Martin's mother; he won't get Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson, either. Blacks and latinos don't know him and don't trust him (yet). He needs a big presence in SC, cos that's a gimme for Clinton and even a very close result there could swing the rest of the trail in Sanders' favour.

No he doesn't. He needs the young vote, which he very much has. He has a big ground presence in both?
So long as he keeps close in actual nominated delegates till super Tuesday, he'll be fine.

 

[Jockney]

No he doesn't. He needs the young vote, which he very much has. He has a big ground presence in both?
So long as he keeps close in actual nominated delegates till super Tuesday, he'll be fine.

He has the first, it remains to be seen whether he will have the 2nd, esp Latino voters. Hillary was a big presence post-Charleston, Sanders was and to a degree still is unknown. SC is damage limitation for Sanders. I don't think he has a hope of winning there. Nevada on the other hand...

 

[Tilbury]

Yeh the poll of polls from Nevada has Clinton 49 Bernie 46. Could go either way. Not really sure will count as a bad result for him in SC now

 

[SUTSS]

Looks like Hilary will win by 5 or 6 points in Nevada

 

[Jockney]

another tight victory. A tight loss in SC wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world for Sanders. He has more time to campaign post-SC and his base will continue to grow.

 

[blade1889]

Jeb Bush backs down as Trump wins

 

[blade1889]

How does anything get done in America? I really do find it all confusing with one party just blocking what another tries to do, in this case the senate blocking the governing party. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35645775

Is the senate elected by the public in America?

 

[Tilbury]

Yeh, each state sends two Senators to the Senate (so 100 in total). The Republicans have a majority there whilst, to them, the most disliked president for some time is currently in office. The amount of ridiculous partisan politics we've seen in recent years with government shutdowns and now this by Republicans in Congress is higher than it usually is. Certainly there is no precedent to not even considering a Presidents Supreme Court nomination simply because they don't like him and his time is almost up.
This will only hurt the fuckers in the long term though, helping to ensure that either Clinton or Sanders is the next president and also helping to turn Congress back in the Dems favour.

 

[blade1889]

Yeh, each state sends two Senators to the Senate (so 100 in total). The Republicans have a majority there whilst, to them, the most disliked president for some time is currently in office. The amount of ridiculous partisan politics we've seen in recent years with government shutdowns and now this by Republicans in Congress is higher than it usually is. Certainly there is no precedent to not even considering a Presidents Supreme Court nomination simply because they don't like him and his time is almost up.
This will only hurt the fuckers in the long term though, helping to ensure that either Clinton or Sanders is the next president and also helping to turn Congress back in the Dems favour.

When do they have senate elections? Seems odd to me that people would vote in a different office to senate but I assume its slightly similar to our local elections where the party in power rarely does well. Just seems a very flawed system to me.

 

[Tilbury]

Term length is 6 years, but the elections are staggered so only roughly 1/3 are elected at one time (then another 1/3 two years later etc.).
Yeh stuff like that affects it. Also the senate specifically is not designed to be representative of the whole population, meaning a tiny state like Rhode Island has the same number of Senators as California. The Presidential election (and House of Reps) is done much more proportionally, giving states with bigger populations more power.
Certainly can be a very odd system, makes it so interesting, to me anyway.

 

[blade1889]

Term length is 6 years, but the elections are staggered so only roughly 1/3 are elected at one time (then another 1/3 two years later etc.).
Yeh stuff like that affects it. Also the senate specifically is not designed to be representative of the whole population, meaning a tiny state like Rhode Island has the same number of Senators as California. The Presidential election (and House of Reps) is done much more proportionally, giving states with bigger populations more power.
Certainly can be a very odd system, makes it so interesting, to me anyway.

Thanks for the info! Am slowly learning how America works haha

The more you say the weirder it sounds, i guess it would be a headache to do it proportionally but it not being so seems ridiculous.

Definitely interesting though to see how the worlds biggest superpower functions.

 

[Tilbury]

Thanks for the info! Am slowly learning how America works haha

The more you say the weirder it sounds, i guess it would be a headache to do it proportionally but it not being so seems ridiculous.

Definitely interesting though to see how the worlds biggest superpower functions.

Some interesting pages on Wikipedia for further reading!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

 

[.V.]

Thanks for the info! Am slowly learning how America works haha

The more you say the weirder it sounds, i guess it would be a headache to do it proportionally but it not being so seems ridiculous.

Definitely interesting though to see how the worlds biggest superpower functions.

It's all about proportionaling power so one part of the government doesn't have too much power.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

The Trump's march continues I see......

 

[Whitechapel]

The Trump's march continues I see......

It can't happen, can it? How can Americans even vote for him? Can the American government not do something about it if he takes charge?

 

[.V.]

It can't happen, can it? How can Americans even vote for him? Can the American government not do something about it if he takes charge?

The Republicans control Congress. If Obama can get a new judge on to the Supreme Court, they might be able to stop any unconstitutional laws that are passed. The court will have a liberal majority.

 

[Aber gas]

The Republicans control Congress. If Obama can get a new judge on to the Supreme Court, they might be able to stop any unconstitutional laws that are passed. The court will have a liberal majority.

Bloody hell, this Supreme Court appointment is even more important than ever now.

 

[Alty]

I suspect once in power he wouldn't be as dangerous as someone like Ted Cruz. Trump strikes me as a lover of money and the ultimate pragmatist. All this shit he talks seems to be down to political calculation rather than deep seated belief. The biggest downside to him being elected would be the reputational damage it would do the United States.

I strongly suspect he'd lose to Clinton or Sanders though. I mean, what's his share of the ethnic minority vote going to be? 10% at the absolute most?

I think Cruz is probably in big, big trouble now. Question is whether Rubio or Kasich can do enough to stop Trump with establishment support.

 

[SUTSS]

I suspect once in power he wouldn't be as dangerous as someone like Ted Cruz. Trump strikes me as a lover of money and the ultimate pragmatist. All this shit he talks seems to be down to political calculation rather than deep seated belief. The biggest downside to him being elected would be the reputational damage it would do the United States.

I strongly suspect he'd lose to Clinton or Sanders though. I mean, what's his share of the ethnic minority vote going to be? 10% at the absolute most?

I think Cruz is probably in big, big trouble now. Question is whether Rubio or Kasich can do enough to stop Trump with establishment support.

You'd think that but he seems to have some support there. More hispanic votes than both Rubio and Cruz in Nevada and 40% of black votes.

 

[Aber gas]

You'd think that but he seems to have some support there. More hispanic votes than both Rubio and Cruz in Nevada and 40% of black votes.

But Hispanics make up only 8% of registered republicans in Nevada. I shouldn't think that Trump would be able to take much of the Hispanic vote in a presidential election where as a moderate Republican perhaps would. All beneficial to Clinton/ Sanders I should think.

 

[.V.]

I suspect once in power he wouldn't be as dangerous as someone like Ted Cruz. Trump strikes me as a lover of money and the ultimate pragmatist. All this shit he talks seems to be down to political calculation rather than deep seated belief. The biggest downside to him being elected would be the reputational damage it would do the United States.

I strongly suspect he'd lose to Clinton or Sanders though. I mean, what's his share of the ethnic minority vote going to be? 10% at the absolute most?

I think Cruz is probably in big, big trouble now. Question is whether Rubio or Kasich can do enough to stop Trump with establishment support.

Agreed. Whilst running a company isn't the same as running a country, he can't just get rid of the states taking in less money than what they receive, he's not the true believer that Cruz is. I can't stand Trump, but he's the lesser of two evils in this case.

After Nevada: Five (unlikely) ways Trump can still be stopped:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35649252

If it goes to a brokered convention Trump has little or no chance, as he's hated by the majority of the GOP leadership. They'd have nothing to lose by doing it.

 

[.V.]

Bloody hell, this Supreme Court appointment is even more important than ever now.

Yes and no. A lot of the really fucked up stuff happens at state level. Watch this weeks Last Week Tonight on abortion, for just one example. If you don't have Sky Atlantic, they put it up to watch on their FB page.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

Agreed. Whilst running a company isn't the same as running a country, he can't just get rid of the states taking in less money than what they receive, he's not the true believer that Cruz is. I can't stand Trump, but he's the lesser of two evils in this case.

After Nevada: Five (unlikely) ways Trump can still be stopped:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35649252

If it goes to a brokered convention Trump has little or no chance, as he's hated by the majority of the GOP leadership. They'd have nothing to lose by doing it.

Surely if Trump continues to win a lot of popularity with the base as shown by Republican caucuses, yet the GoP hierarchy then nobble the nomination, it'd cause years of chaos for the party. Especially if the GoP do that and their establishment man then loses to Clinton / Saunders!

 

[.V.]

Surely if Trump continues to win a lot of popularity with the base as shown by Republican caucuses, yet the GoP hierarchy then nobble the nomination, it'd cause years of chaos for the party. Especially if the GoP do that and their establishment man then loses to Clinton / Saunders!

Potentially, but where else are those voters going to go?

Also, the demographics of the country is significantly changing, does the GOP want to alienate those people in the long run?

I suspect most would forgive, if that nominee defeated Clinton or Sanders.

 

[Tilbury]

Potentially, but where else are those voters going to go?

Potentially a third party candidate. If Trump really does win the nomination then Bloomberg will be thinking there is a lot of room for him to manoeuvre himself in to (especially if Sanders also wins).

 

[Tilbury]

So with South Carolina only 3 days away and Super Tuesday 6, I can't pretend this is going to be a good week for Sanders. The good news is that even after this, only roughly 25% of pledged delegates will have been awarded, so still a long way to go. Of the places he should be very competitive and/or win I'd suggest; Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont and I'll throw Texas out as a curveball where he could surprise a few. The rest, he is sitting at at least 30% pretty much everywhere really.