US Presidential election 2016

[smat]

Trump is/was very good friends with the Clintons. Make of that what you will.

No, spell out your mad theory please!

 

[Tilbury]

Bernie is 209 delegates behind. After Wyoming that'll be under 200. Going into New York (247 D) he basically can't afford to lose. A draw would be fine but a win of any kind would be incredible. Then we have Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island (384 D). All winnable so if he can pick up 50-100 delegates over Clinton that would be very good. Through May and into June we have Indiana, Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico (302 D) with some favourable and some not so, so we'll take an even split after this.
Then the big one, California worth 475 delegates. Here, if like some of the other west coast states done already, he can win 2 or 3-1 then he takes a serious chunk out of her lead and possibly even eclipses her. On the same day we have Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota (219 D) finishing up with DC (20 D). There are fuck loads of delegates to play for and although it's difficult, it's certainly possible.
Of course he could win and then the super delegates go against the popular choice at the convention, but then the easy win we're predicting against either probably Cruz or Trump suddenly becomes much much more difficult when Sanders not only doesn't endorse her, but actively comes out against the bullshit DNC. I don't really see that happening, they'd be risking too much.

 

[Tilbury]

Well now I guess this is over.
In some ways how could Bernie win. Hillary has an FBI investigation still under way, she is backed by the very corporate America who caused the financial crash, she takes huge amounts of donations from wealthy business and individuals (clooney I'm looking at you you spineless hypocritical cretin c***) and she flip flops on issue and policy like no other politician before.
On the other hand how can't she win. She has the backing of the corporate media and business who finance and control virtually all information the electorate receive during the process, she changes her position once it becomes populist and she has the name associated recognition (the kind of divine right the Americans fought a civil war against us to eliminate) that means any challenger has no chance.
Well I'm sad but fuck her. She brings nothing, no change and no progress. I wouldn't vote for her.

 

[Womble98]

Choice between shit and shit in Trump and Clinton.

 

[blade1889]

Big night for Trump winning all 5 primaries with over 50% of the votes in each one

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

 

[Tilbury]

So whose going to run as a third party conservative?

 

[blade1889]

Jeb Bush

 

[Max]

I don't think the mainstream Republicans will want to hand the contest to Clinton (which is what a third party candidacy could do). Certainly they'd not risk it.

It will be really interesting to see who Trump picks as a running mate. If the Obama presidency has shown anything, it's that president's can often not actually get that much done. Trump can't accomplish 10% of what he's promised, so a lot will boil down to how he packages what is achievable. Trump not actually having any experience, behind closed doors you'd have to imagine he would consult with a Veep more than most presidents, and best case scenario for the Republicans is that they can control Trump and keep him in line...ish.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

It's gotta be Tila Tequila.

 

[blade1889]

Smirnoff Vodka has always been my running mate. Drink enough in the evening and you're so hungover the next day you dont feel guilty about not going for a run.

 

[nousername]

Ted Cruz drops out.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36200431

 

[G-Dragon]

Ez win for Clinton. Trump does not stand a chance imo.

 

[Tilbury]

A pretty incredible upset for Sanders to win in Indiana, not quite Michigan levels but still about a 10 point swing from what the polls predicted.

 

[Alty]

Any chance of Kasich hanging around long enough to block Trump? Seems like the fat lady is clearing her throat...

Sanders seems to be determined to fight to the end. Maybe Hilary will go for a lefty running mate to appease his wing of the party?

 

[Tilbury]

Clinton putting Elizabeth Warren on her ticket as VP would appeal to a lot of the progressive left and millennials who are Bernie or bust.
Whilst Warren is very close to Bernie on the political scale she has been fairly careful to not endorse either and remain relatively neutral, perhaps she is hoping for a pick.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Why would she need to appease the Democratic left? She already has them in her pocket. It's the people in the middle of the spectrum she has to appeal to, which is the problem with a two party system - there's no one to keep politicians beholden to their principles. I know people claim Bernie or bust, but seriously? People are going to not vote for her if it's neck and neck with Donald-fucking-Trump? No chance.

 

[.V.]

Why would she need to appease the Democratic left? She already has them in her pocket. It's the people in the middle of the spectrum she has to appeal to, which is the problem with a two party system - there's no one to keep politicians beholden to their principles. I know people claim Bernie or bust, but seriously? People are going to not vote for her if it's neck and neck with Donald-fucking-Trump? No chance.

I think she's going to have problems getting the Bernie supporters on board without Warren.

I went to uni with an American who I keep in touch with. She's a big Bernie fan, who has said she wouldn't vote for Hilary. She's usually pretty sensible too; seems odd to me.

 

[smat]

Why would she need to appease the Democratic left? She already has them in her pocket. It's the people in the middle of the spectrum she has to appeal to, which is the problem with a two party system - there's no one to keep politicians beholden to their principles. I know people claim Bernie or bust, but seriously? People are going to not vote for her if it's neck and neck with Donald-fucking-Trump? No chance.

But Donald Trump has no intention of becoming president???

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Maybe he does. Means we have to face the fact that he's run a genius campaign though.

 

[Tilbury]

Hillary is a centrist, having a leftist as running mate will only expand her potential. Trump v Clinton must combine as the two most hated pair of presidential candidates ever.
And yes bernie or bust is very much a thing. These people aren't going to vote Trump en masse, they'll go back to not voting or perhaps a third party like the greens.
And it's not the Democratic left that supports bernie, it's the progressive left. So yes I suppose you're right in that she can probably take most of the party membership (left and right), but the biggest political group in the country is independent or unaffiliated. There's a reason he does much better in open contests, where this group can vote.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

Any chance of Kasich hanging around long enough to block Trump?

Nope. He's just dropped out.

 

[Jockney]

Hillary is a centrist, having a leftist as running mate will only expand her potential. Trump v Clinton must combine as the two most hated pair of presidential candidates ever.
And yes bernie or bust is very much a thing. These people aren't going to vote Trump en masse, they'll go back to not voting or perhaps a third party like the greens.
And it's not the Democratic left that supports bernie, it's the progressive left. So yes I suppose you're right in that she can probably take most of the party membership (left and right), but the biggest political group in the country is independent or unaffiliated. There's a reason he does much better in open contests, where this group can vote.

four/five months of trump campaigning out to put paid to that. bernie or bust is nothing more than bravado.

 

[Alty]

four/five months of trump campaigning out to put paid to that. bernie or bust is nothing more than bravado.

Do you think there are people who are cheesed off with the mainstream in general and will go from having voted for Sanders in a primary to Trump in the Presidential election? I can't imagine it's huge numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if such people exist. Kind of like ex Lib Dem voters going for UKIP in recent years. The numbers are bigger than you'd expect.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

If Trump comes out and says that he'll get money out of politics and break up the big banks then progressives will have a very serious decision to make.

 

[.V.]

Do you think there are people who are cheesed off with the mainstream in general and will go from having voted for Sanders in a primary to Trump in the Presidential election? I can't imagine it's huge numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if such people exist. Kind of like ex Lib Dem voters going for UKIP in recent years. The numbers are bigger than you'd expect.

I know Trump supporters have frequently said that Bernie would be their 2nd choice. Don't know if Bernie fans would vote for trump, but I doubt it.

 

[Tilbury]

four/five months of trump campaigning out to put paid to that. bernie or bust is nothing more than bravado.

For some I'm sure, but I think you're underestimating the disdain so many of his supporters have for her and the 'establishment'.

It will be interesting to see if in remaining states (that allow it) Republicans start turning out for the Democrat primaries now theirs is over. California, for instance, has a semi-closed primary meaning a simple switch to non-affiliated would allow them a vote in the contest.

 

[blade1889]

I have a few Bernie supporters on fb and they're worried about the people saying they wont vote if Hillary gets the nod, its a genuine concern that apathy could pave the way for Trump.

 

[Tilbury]

I think you're right about the tone changing, but that holds true for Trump as well. He's going to try and morph in to whatever he thinks will win the election, which is inevitably towards the centre.

 

[Gashead]

I think you're right about the tone changing, but that holds true for Trump as well. He's going to try and morph in to whatever he thinks will win the election, which is inevitably towards the centre.

This is what worries me. Trump has been incredibly good at saying what the voters want to hear, that won't change.