Week ending 26th March

[kieran_vale]

You can get lucky over a period of say ten games maybe. There was a time under Bruno Ribeiro we were top of L1 after a similar amount of games but anyone who saw us knew it was built on sand and sure enough everything collapsed. With less than ten games to go for FGR it’s not luck why they’re there.

As for tonight just keep the aggressive streak we have been showing recently going. The last three games we have really upped the physicality of our play and so long as it doesn’t go over the top have been so much better for it. Only change I’d consider would be Martin for Walker at the back. Other than that whilst we are without Conlon and Gibbons this is probably the best eleven we can put out.

 

[shoddycollins]

Luck is a thing, as is inconsistent refereeing. Plenty of points can be won and lost on those two points alone.

Those sort of things are usually evenly spread through the season, shouldn't really explain a team being the runaway leaders for the first two thirds of the season and then not being able to buy a win as they enter the run-in.

 

[valefan16]

You can get lucky over a period of say ten games maybe. There was a time under Bruno Ribeiro we were top of L1 after a similar amount of games but anyone who saw us knew it was built on sand and sure enough everything collapsed. With less than ten games to go for FGR it’s not luck why they’re there.

As for tonight just keep the aggressive streak we have been showing recently going. The last three games we have really upped the physicality of our play and so long as it doesn’t go over the top have been so much better for it. Only change I’d consider would be Martin for Walker at the back. Other than that whilst we are without Conlon and Gibbons this is probably the best eleven we can put out.

Depends, if Exeter come and sit deep as Devon Lad suggests then Walker may be the better option with his switch pass, for me Martin is ready made for the aerial bombardment I expect on Saturday so would be more inclined not to risk him tonight.

 

[Gassy]

Very thin squad meaning we’ve relied on the same players all season, meaning now quite a few look jaded we don’t have any real options to change anything. Only bringing in one youngster on loan in January could have proved pretty costly but think we should just about get away with it.

No no no, don’t you get it? Only Exeter can have injuries/suspensions that might affect their chances to win. For the rest of us it just means we were previously lucky or not good enough.

 

[Devon_Lad]

Those sort of things are usually evenly spread through the season

I completely disagree, a commonly spouted myth. We are not flipping a coin 10,000. The variables on luck - human error (ref decisions), bad tackles and injuries - the idea that luck evens itself out is only true if each event is completely independent of the other. Every game impacts the next game be it injuries, fatigue from getting players sent off incorrectly. It's just simply not true that luck in football evens itself out over a season. And 46 games certainly isn't enough of an example even if each event was independent of the past. You can quite easily flip a coin 46 times and have heavily skewed results way off 23-23. 10,000 times and you'll of course be closer to 5k/5k. So add in the fact each game aren't truly independent of the last combined with the fact that 46 is a hopelessly low sample, luck absolutely can make a team look much better than they are by looking at the just the table.

 

[Devon_Lad]

No no no, don’t you get it? Only Exeter can have injuries/suspensions that might affect their chances to win. For the rest of us it just means we were previously lucky or not good enough.

I haven't even said anything to remotely give that impression you freak

 

[Chris FGR]

I completely disagree, a commonly spouted myth. We are not flipping a coin 10,000. The variables on luck - human error (ref decisions), bad tackles and injuries - the idea that luck evens itself out is only true if each event is completely independent of the other. Every game impacts the next game be it injuries, fatigue from getting players sent off incorrectly. It's just simply not true that luck in football evens itself out over a season. And 46 games certainly isn't enough of an example even if each event was independent of the past. You can quite easily flip a coin 46 times and have heavily skewed results way off 23-23. 10,000 times and you'll of course be closer to 5k/5k. So add in the fact each game aren't truly independent of the last combined with the fact that 46 is a hopelessly low sample, luck absolutely can make a team look much better than they are by looking at the just the table.

So the league table doesn’t mean much even after 46 games? Surely if you finish top after that much football has been played it can’t be down to luck.

 

[Back in the DHSS]

As a neutral, I would prefer a Port Vale victory in tonight’s big game. Plus if as expected both Mansfield and Sutton win, will make 2nd to 10 th positions extremely interesting over the next few weeks.

 

[kieran_vale]

As a neutral, I would prefer a Port Vale victory in tonight’s big game. Plus if as expected both Mansfield and Sutton win, will make 2nd to 10 th positions extremely interesting over the next few weeks.

Am fully expecting to be going into the final day of the season with at least one possibly two automatic spots up for grabs and the same for the playoffs. It's the closest race I can ever remember with good arguments to be made for and against every team.

 

[valefan16]

Am fully expecting to be going into the final day of the season with at least one possibly two automatic spots up for grabs and the same for the playoffs. It's the closest race I can ever remember with good arguments to be made for and against every team.

If it stays as it is we might even have a situation where 8th placed could get auto's on the last day (all be it would need a lot of luck).

Its set up to be exciting regardless.

 

[AdamStag]

Hard week for us with trips to rochdale and oldham.

After stevenage conveniently got covid just after evans joined we’ll have played 5 games away games in a row (with hartlepool next tuesday), so it’d a tough ask really.

Need to look for an improvement after the disappointing previous 2 results

 

[shoddycollins]

I completely disagree, a commonly spouted myth. We are not flipping a coin 10,000. The variables on luck - human error (ref decisions), bad tackles and injuries - the idea that luck evens itself out is only true if each event is completely independent of the other. Every game impacts the next game be it injuries, fatigue from getting players sent off incorrectly. It's just simply not true that luck in football evens itself out over a season. And 46 games certainly isn't enough of an example even if each event was independent of the past. You can quite easily flip a coin 46 times and have heavily skewed results way off 23-23. 10,000 times and you'll of course be closer to 5k/5k. So add in the fact each game aren't truly independent of the last combined with the fact that 46 is a hopelessly low sample, luck absolutely can make a team look much better than they are by looking at the just the table.

You're getting a bit carried away with the maths there though, presenting luck in football as 46 occasions where you have either good or bad (or neutral) luck. But if you apply it to each refereeing decision, each action on the pitch, on the training pitch even if we're talking injuries, then it is a lot closer to the big sample size you'd expect to even out.

It's true things are connected and a single moment of bad luck might cause a snowball effect, but it's also true that often a bit of bad luck will only affect a single game. I still think that it does even out over the course of a season, because the sample size is big, and only occasionally does bad luck have knock-on effects.

 

[Devon_Lad]

So the league table doesn’t mean much even after 46 games? Surely if you finish top after that much football has been played it can’t be down to luck.

It does obviously mean something, you get promoted or relegated. To argue it can't be heavily influenced by luck is hilarious. Obviously it can and is. Referee decisions, the ball coming off a deflection, games being postponed, fixture congestion, fatigue from injuries and busy fixtures down to postponements and the sheer fact of natural luck. 46 coin flips could easily give 30 heads to 16 tails and that's without human interference

 

[Devon_Lad]

You're getting a bit carried away with the maths there though, presenting luck in football as 46 occasions where you have either good or bad (or neutral) luck. But if you apply it to each refereeing decision, each action on the pitch, on the training pitch even if we're talking injuries, then it is a lot closer to the big sample size you'd expect to even out.

It's true things are connected and a single moment of bad luck might cause a snowball effect, but it's also true that often a bit of bad luck will only affect a single game. I still think that it does even out over the course of a season, because the sample size is big, and only occasionally does bad luck have knock-on effects.

46 games isn't a big sample size. Simples

 

[shoddycollins]

46 games isn't a big sample size. Simples

You didn't bother reading any of what I wrote did you not?

 

[The Evil Dead]

Unchanged team for us with only 6 on the bench though.

Come on, Vale!

 

[denzel ecfc]

Only 6 on the bench. Sweeney ill, had to recall Rowe and Dyer from Bath.

 

[Devon_Lad]

You didn't bother reading any of what I wrote did you not?

Yes hence my reply

 

[Devon_Lad]

Only 6 on the bench. Sweeney ill, had to recall Rowe and Dyer from Bath.

We'll be lucky (sorry, am I allowed to say that?) If we get a draw. Fingers crossed. Not looking at a win today. What a day if we manage it.

 

[chipmunx]

stop moaning about only having 6 on the bench;- teams like Barrow, Harrogate and Sutton who have come up recently and therefore don't have academies (or players that have come through the academy) have been limited to 6 subs all season.

 

[valefan16]

We'll be lucky (sorry, am I allowed to say that?) If we get a draw. Fingers crossed. Not looking at a win today. What a day if we manage it.

It would be typical Vale!

 

[denzel ecfc]

stop moaning about only having 6 on the bench;- teams like Barrow, Harrogate and Sutton who have come up recently and therefore don't have academies (or players that have come through the academy) have been limited to 6 subs all season.

You had seven subs when you played us in August. We had, er, six.

 

[chipmunx]

You had seven subs when you played us in August. We had, er, six.

we're only allowed 7 in the start of season transfer window - after that it's 6.

 

[Devon_Lad]

It would be typical Vale!

Don't get me wrong the players that are fit are extremely good and capable. I just worry about midfield.

We've recalled 2 loanees from the lower leagues, but I'm sure they're hungry and have a point to prove

 

[Devon_Lad]

we're only allowed 7 in the start of season transfer window - after that it's 6.

Are you drunk?

 

[Devon_Lad]

stop moaning about only having 6 on the bench;- teams like Barrow, Harrogate and Sutton who have come up recently and therefore don't have academies (or players that have come through the academy) have been limited to 6 subs all season.

Nobody is moaning, you weirdo. Just stating we have a weaker squad. You sound like the Vale forum, nobody is calling for it to be off or anything. Just saying we are weak.

Be back in 2 hours when we have won 2-0

 

[chipmunx]

oh FFS Harrogate....

Harrogate 0 Orient 2

but

Oldham 0 Sutton 1

 

[BogDaddyO]

oh FFS Harrogate....

Harrogate 0 Orient 2

but

Oldham 0 Sutton 1

We're actually playing really well for what feels like the first time in years.
Away from home, 2 up, all the possession, Harrogate look OK as well, bit shaky at the back, but we're hammering them.
Things starting to look a lot more positive under Wellens, much happier.

 

[chipmunx]

We're actually playing really well for what feels like the first time in years.
Away from home, 2 up, all the possession, Harrogate look OK as well, bit shaky at the back, but we're hammering them.
Things starting to look a lot more positive under Wellens, much happier.

0-3 now....

 

[valefan16]

Not much to write home about. Exeter have come to slow the game and be physical. We’ve had the better chances but final ball is missing. Need to up the tempo but be patient and not give away anything sloppy.

Wozza is having a poor game.