2019/20 L2 Final League Table Predictions

[F!RTHY]

At the end of the day Bradford I recall got about 7-8000 in the early 00s before it and have halved the price and get roughly double. Whilst it probably doesn’t add much financial boost in terms of ticket sales you get the extra support and of course extra revenue from food, programmes, shirts etc..

Early 2000’s:

2000 - 18,030
2001 - 18,511 (relegation)
2002 - 15,489 (first admin)
2003 - 12,501
2004 - 11,337 (second admin - relegation)
2005 - 8,839
2006 - 8,265
2007 - 8,694 (third relegation)
2008-2019 - 10,322-19,787

I’m not sure how far to go back, but we haven’t averaged less than 8,265 for what will be 24 years - a time you refer to.

The model works. We have tasted success with it, have increased our fanbase on the back of it and I can’t see us scrapping the initiative, either.

 

[Spanishstag]

Yeah, but the higher up the leagues you go the less reliance on gate money you are.

Its not a criticism of bradford ,but if they ever get back to the top flight i dont think they would be selling them so cheaply ,supply and demand i suppose

 

[Back in the DHSS]

1 Mansfield
2 Plymouth
3 Scunthorpe
4 Crewe
5 Bradford
6 Newport
7 Stevenage
8 Morecambe
9 Northampton
10 Swindon
11 Exeter
12 Colchester
13 Orient
14 FGR
15 Vale
16 Salford
17 Grimsby
18 Crawley
19 Walsall
20 Cheltenham
21 Carlisle
22 Oldham
23 Cambridge
24 Macclesfield

 

[Sydney Posse]

1 Mansfield
2 Bradford
3 Exeter
4 Swindon
5 Northampton
6 Scunthorpe
7 Port Vale
8 Forest Green Rovers
9 Plymouth
10 Walsall
11 Newport
12 Oldham
13 Crewe
14 Crawley
15 Carlisle
16 Colchester
17 Grimsby
18 Stevenage
19 Salford
20 Orient
21 Cambridge
22 Morecambe
23 Cheltenham
24 Macclesfield

 

[Indian Dan]

1 Mansfield
2 Swindon
3 Plymouth
4 Bradford
5 Northampton
6 Grimsby
7 Port Vale
8 Crewe
9 Colchester
10 Crawley
11 Oldham
12 Walsall
13 Stevenage
14 Salford
15 Newport
16 Scunthorpe
17 FGR
18 Exeter
19 Cheltenham
20 Orient
21 Cambridge
22 Carlisle
23 Morecambe
24 Macclesfield

 

[shoddycollins]

Right, with only three weeks :O to go, let's have another crack at this.

 

[Cobbler Baggy]

Apart from a few teams who I expect to be in the top 7 (at least) and a four or five teams who I expect to be near the bottom, I think it's very difficult to predict the division this year.

My guess:

1. Mansfield
2. Plymouth
3. Bradford
4. Newport
5. Northampton
6. Exeter
7. Colchester
8. FGR
9. Scunthorpe
10. Swindon
11. Grimsby
12. Crewe
13. Walsall
14. Stevenage
15. Salford
16. L'Orient
17. Oldham
18. Port Vale
19. Cheltenham
20. Crawley
21. Cambridge
22. Carlisle
23. Morecambe
24. Macclesfield

 

[joethegill]

1. Plymouth
2. Mansfield
3. Bradford
-------------------------------
4. Exeter
5. Swindon
6. Salford
7. Stevenage
------------------------------
8. Crewe
9. Forest Green
10. Newport
11. Northampton
12. Colchester
13. Scunthorpe
14. Oldham
15. Carlisle
16. Port Vale
17. Walsall
18. Leyton Orient
19. Grimsby
20. Crawley
21. Morecambe
22. Cambridge
-------------------------------
23. Cheltenham
24. Macclesfield

 

[BlackHaddock]

Stole this off Facebook, not 4th Division, but funny.

 

[TimeyWimey]

1 Mansfield
2 Swindon
3 Plymouth
4 Bradford
5 Northampton
6 Grimsby
7 Port Vale
8 Crewe

Awful prediction. Re-think immediately.

 

[Indian Dan]

OK. Well finish top!

 

[Vanni]

Good thing I firmly believe that people should be free to think whatever it is they want to think, or else I would be questioning why everybody and his dog thinks we're going down.

FWIW I don't think we'll get relegated this year, but I'm fully expecting a bigger number of clubs to be fighting for survival than there were last season. I reckon all the sides that finished below 12th place will be there or thereabouts again this season, with the exception of Northampton, and perhaps possibly Swindon. Then there's always at least one of the relegated sides from L1 that will find it hard to adjust to life in the basement div, and it's also possible that the same will go for one of the two promoted sides.

As for people thinking Macc will be relegated by the end of October, just forget it, it's not going to happen. I for one will not be the slightest bit surprised if they're nowhere near the bottom two come May.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

Gotta give the Pilgrims some credit for recruiting some of the best elements of last year's Bury team

1 Plymouth
2 Mansfield
3 Exeter
----
4 Salford
5 FGR
6 Scunthorpe
7 Crewe
---
8 Swindon
9 Bradford
10 Colchester
11 Newport
12 Stevenage
13 Northampton
14 Grimsby
15 Carlisle
16 Port Vale
17 Leyton Orient
18 Oldham
19 Walsall
20 Cambridge
21 Cheltenham
22 Morecambe
23 Crawley
24 Macclesfield

 

[shoddycollins]

Don't think the final table according to the bookies has been mentioned yet, but at the moment look like this.

1. Classless of 92 FC
2. Bradford City
3. Plymouth Argyle
---------------------------------------
4. Scunthorpe United
5. Mansfield Town
6. Northampton Town
7. Forest Green Rovers
----------------------------------------
8. Walsall
9. Swindon Town
10. Colchester United
11. Leyton Orient
12. Exeter City
13. Carlisle United
14. Oldham Athletic
15. Crewe Alexandra
16. Port Vale
17. Newport County
18. Stevenage
19. Cambridge United
20. Crawley Town
21. Cheltenham Town
22. Grimsby Town
----------------------------------------
23. Macclesfield Town
24. Morecambe

That's based on odds to win the title. Odds for relegation put them in a slightly different order, with the bottom two still the same but Oldham (whose odds for the title are apparently getting longer) closer to relegation than title odds suggest, Cambridge further and Salford down to 4th since while they're the favourites, as a bankrolled team who have never played at this level before the bookies see them as slightly more likely to fuck it all up go down than more established and sustainable outfits.

For most of the teams who remain here from last season, the bookies don't expect next year to bring any great differences. The promotion picture will once again feature last year's relegated teams prominently with Mansfield and the Conference play off winners. Grimsby's upturn in form to finish mid-table hasn't swayed the bookies who think they'll struggle again. Colchester and Swindon will miss out narrowly on the playoffs again and so on.

The only real differences are that Exeter will finally fall away and finish mid-table. Newport and Stevenage will do so even more dramatically, while Northampton will progress.

Carlisle finishing 13th in this table probably isn't too different from our 11th place finish last season, though that was 11th in a close playoff race that we were still clinging on to until the last game. 13th in this table probably does mean mid-table anonymity but that's far better than we think we'll finish. Bookies are famously risk averse and don't really like predicting teams to go from a promotion push one year to a relegation battle the next.

Time for another look at the league table according to the bookies, and how much it's changed in the month since last I checked.

(^1) 1. Bradford
(^3) 2. Mansfield
(==) 3. Plymbury
--------------------------------------------
(v3) 4. Classless of 92 FC
(v1) 5. S****horpe
(==) 6. Northampton
(==) 7. FGR
---------------------------------------------
(==) 8. Walsall
(==) 9. Swindon
(==) 10. Colchester
(==) 11. L'Orient
(^1) 12. Carlisle
(v1) 13. Exeterrr
(==) 14. Oldham
(^2) 15. Newport
(v1) 16. Cru
(^1) 17. Stevenage
(v2) 18. Port Vale
(==) 19. Cambridge
(^1) 20. Cheltenham
(^1) 21. GY
(v2) 22. Crawley
----------------------------------------------
(==) 23. Mighty Macc
(==) 24. Morecambe

Well that was fucking dull and pointless. I was expecting some kind of talking point beyond the obvious, Salford hype dying down a little. What on Earth have the bookies been doing this past month? They certainly haven't been reading this forum for clues on who is officially going for it and who is doomed.

 

[Vanni]

I don't think there was ever a year when Morecambe weren't odds on favs for the drop. Or even a year in which the bookies had them down for 23rd. I swear they're always in 24th place in pre season.

 

[Jam0]

Update from East London.

Most have us down as lower mid table and I’m fairly sure that’s going to be spot on this year. We lost three of our most prized assets over the summer in Bonne, Koroma and, tragically and most importantly, Edinburgh.

Signed 3 players so far and expecting a couple more in. Probably our biggest strength last year overall turned out to be our defense and we’ve kept all of them. Expect us to be a side very hard to breakdown as I reckon we’ll have one of the best backlines in the league already. Cambridge fans will know how solid a player Josh Coulson is and Marvin Ekpiteta didn’t earn himself the tagline as the non league Virgil Van Dijk by chance.

It’ll be a year for us to consolidate and I’d take a solid mid table finish. Everything with be about ‘doing it for Justin’ and I think the players will do just that. We’ve got a solid nucleus, a fantastic team spirit and great environment at the club (after a few years of well documented turmoil, we’re exceptionally well run). Can see us being one of those sides this year that springs surprises but ultimately won’t have the necessary quality for any realistic push at the top end

 

[Posh Harry]

I’ve just had a bet on Bradford winning the league.

Good news for them is that I had a fiver on notts county last season

 

[hellogregory]

I find it incredible that none of the bookies have us nailed on for the drop.

Do they just base their odds on last season and take no notice of the fact we’ve lost our better players from last season, only have 14 players, not much football league experience and no strikers, with our only remaining goal threat still likely to be sold within the next few weeks.

The odds I got on our relegation is looking more and more like an absolute steal every day. You can still get 14/1, which I would take if I were you before the bookies finally cotton on.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

I find it incredible that none of the bookies have us nailed on for the drop.

Do they just base their odds on last season and take no notice of the fact we’ve lost our better players from last season, only have 14 players, not much football league experience and no strikers, with our only remaining goal threat still likely to be sold within the next few weeks.

The odds I got on our relegation is looking more and more like an absolute steal every day. You can still get 14/1, which I would take if I were you before the bookies finally cotton on.

I was going to double you up with Bury but they are 8/1 on...

 

[loz]

I’ve just had a bet on Bradford winning the league.

Good news for them is that I had a fiver on notts county last season

6 months ago, even though we were a division higher, that would have frightened me. whereas I don't understand why some people have us as favourites to win the division, I don't expect a further relegation. In almost 70 years of watching football, I can only remember 1 promotion as champions, we just don't do it.

 

[Big Bird]

I find it incredible that none of the bookies have us nailed on for the drop.

Do they just base their odds on last season and take no notice of the fact we’ve lost our better players from last season, only have 14 players, not much football league experience and no strikers, with our only remaining goal threat still likely to be sold within the next few weeks.

The odds I got on our relegation is looking more and more like an absolute steal every day. You can still get 14/1, which I would take if I were you before the bookies finally cotton on.

Thinking about a cheeky tenner on this....

 

[Chris FGR]

Thinking about a cheeky tenner on this....

View attachment 11434

imagine all of that stuff has happened going into the last weekend apart from Carlisle going down. They need a win to stay up, drawing 1-1 with Stevenage, 10 seconds to go and their on loan keeper Will Henry (who you loaned them in Jan after they sold Adam Collin to Blackpool) comes up for a corner and buries a winner, costing you £159k......

 

[Conker]

People do know our manager has never actually managed a first team before right?

 

[Indian Dan]

But he’s not Flitcroft, is he. That’s bound to be worth a few extra points.

 

[FGR Stroud]

I find it incredible that none of the bookies have us nailed on for the drop.

Do they just base their odds on last season and take no notice of the fact we’ve lost our better players from last season, only have 14 players, not much football league experience and no strikers, with our only remaining goal threat still likely to be sold within the next few weeks.

The odds I got on our relegation is looking more and more like an absolute steal every day. You can still get 14/1, which I would take if I were you before the bookies finally cotton on.

The bookies know that your 12th man will gain your team enough points to avoid the drop.

 

[WilsdenBantam]

Enough pre season has passed to now make a 100% accurate prediction:

1. Carlisle
2. Bradford
3. Morecambe
4-22. Irrelevant tin potters
23. Huddersfield
24. Leeds

 

[Son of Cod]

For anyone wondering where Impish has been hiding, it appears he has been busy on his Youtube account...

 

[Boletus Edulis]

Many of you have us down as automatic, I don’t quite see it that way. Rather, I suspect we will be more likely be in the play offs. My logic is:
1) We lost our good players, but were left with the awful defenders that got us relegated by giving away far too many sloppy goals.
2) It may take a while to merge the plym and bury parts of the team.
3) The system will take a while for the players to master.
4) The attacking 3-5-2 is vulnerable at the back, and at the moment our defence is still awful.

So I think on occasion we will look world beaters, and on others non-league so may not be consistent enough for automatic.

 

[darren gregory]

Interesting article by Bet Victor with Bradford, Plymbury and Salford nowhere near promotion.

https://blog.betvictor.com/en-gb/sp...t=leaguetwo_preview&__twitter_impression=true

 

[Son of Cod]

Interesting article by Bet Victor with Bradford, Plymbury and Salford nowhere near promotion.

https://blog.betvictor.com/en-gb/sp...t=leaguetwo_preview&__twitter_impression=true

Was just coming here to post that. FGR in 2nd too? Can't see that. Vale won't go down, either.