Athletic Article: League One and Two Seasons to be abandoned next week

[dedwardp]

The form book is completely meaningless at this stage, we haven't played for three months which is the same length of time between regular seasons - when teams can go from losing a play-off final to becoming relegation fodder etc.

 

[Huntsman94]

Isn't it an average of 1.91/1.73 ppg over 10 games rather then specifically for that one?

Are there not games that make up less then 3 points as well?

I think it was that specific one but couldn't tell you if other games factor less than 3 points for a game.

Have seen LFC Women have been relegated on a PPG basis. No doubt setting the trend for what will happen next week.

 

[Indian Dan]

Something has just dawned on me here. Being a cynical old git, if a host of clubs go tits up before any new season can start, those that are left will get more of the PL pie between them.

Are things being set in motion to ensure some clubs do fold?

 

[Chris FGR]

Whatever happens I hope they get the fuck on with it so that those of us going nowhere can finally start to think about about what happens next. Our club has said nothing official since 24th March with everyone on furlough. Total silence with regards to refunds, contracts etc.

 

[dannyc5]

Sorry to burst your bubble but we haven't. We dropped into the bottom 3 in the Christmas/New Year period.

What this global pandemic has now done is turn a whole host of fans of other clubs against us for fighting our corner. Aside from the odd club, there is no one on our side and we're going to be the club most shafted with PPG. We're going to go down by 0.04 points. Everyone talks about fairness but the fairness in that given the circumstances is anything but.

I don't blame our Owners for fighting like they have and I'm sure you'd hope your owners would do the same if you were in our situation. Now whilst I have come to terms that relegation is the most likely outcome for us, seeing fans of other clubs hack us off for not going down without a fight, with some even accusing us of ruining other clubs financially due to how long this has all taken, is plain wrong. Especially given the circumstances surrounding our situation.

Apologies. It had felt longer.

However, that in itself raises an interesting point. The Palios’ keep talking about how they held money back till January to invest in the squad. Yet, August till late December you were outside the bottom 3, late December till mid March you were in the bottom 3? So the investment was a slow burner was it? Designed to improve results from March onwards?

Also, totally agree that you deserve a footballing chance if a sensible proposal is put forward. Why did the Palios’ not put forward such a proposal?

 

[Trapdoor]

Isn't it an average of 1.91/1.73 ppg over 10 games rather then specifically for that one?

Are there not games that make up less then 3 points as well?

Yes and yes, but the fact is that it is an impossible outcome. Its not compensating for the position of the teams within the table. It assumes that you still have to play teams evenly spread across the table. However at this stage of the season it is likely that your games still to be played are skewed away from the median.

Its simply broken.

 

[Huntsman94]

Apologies. It had felt longer.

However, that in itself raises an interesting point. The Palios’ keep talking about how they held money back till January to invest in the squad. Yet, August till late December you were outside the bottom 3, late December till mid March you were in the bottom 3? So the investment was a slow burner was it? Designed to improve results from March onwards?

Also, totally agree that you deserve a footballing chance if a sensible proposal is put forward. Why did the Palios’ not put forward such a proposal?

Naturally we would have liked results to have picked up straight away but I think it just took a bit of time to gel and get players playing in the right position/formation etc. We also had a very busy fixture schedule due to the FA Cup and previous postponements and had a very difficult run of games. Think we went Ipswich, Watford, Man Utd, Sunderland, Bolton, Doncaster, Portsmouth which wasn't easy!

We started off February very poorly against Doncaster and Bolton but even in our losses against Portsmouth and Wycombe we played much much better. That then led to the away wins at Shrewsbury, Accy and Blackpool.

I just don't think a relegation playoff proposal gets much support unfortunately especially from those clubs we had in our sights. Seems as if we'll just have to dust ourselves down and fight again in League 2 next season.

 

[Chris FGR]

Yes and yes, but the fact is that it is an impossible outcome. Its not compensating for the position of the teams within the table. It assumes that you still have to play teams evenly spread across the table. However at this stage of the season it is likely that your games still to be played are skewed away from the median.

Its simply broken.

Of course it isn't perfect, but it's the only way of calculating a final table based on factual statistics. You could just freeze the table as it stood and decide promotion/relegation based on that if you only want to use results that have happened on the pitch. Would that be fairer though?

 

[Railway Blue]

Why would tranmere said to expand the playoffs when the league have already said any playoffs will involve the regular number of teams?

But does a side that’s currently 7th with their run in against many of the top 10 and potential to drop down the table deserve to go up in place of Tranmere who are pushing hard to stay up? I think there has to be some common sense.

Ultimately Vale and Bradford and Peterborough haven’t lost anything, we’ve missed the chance to go up but are no worse off by the situation whereas Tranmere would be worse off as they’d be relegated with the financial impact that may have.

If there are play offs they should have a footballing chance to stay up. I feel for them in this, I feel this is much different to Peterborough for example.

I actually do feel for them but they’re just going to have to sit down and accept their medicine on this one, same goes for Peterborough

What is all this antipathy towards Pereteborough about?

 

[chipmunx]

Isn't it an average of 1.91/1.73 ppg over 10 games rather then specifically for that one?

Are there not games that make up less then 3 points as well?

take as an example Chorley v Notts County in the NL.
Chorley (home) 14 points from 19 = 0.74 PPG
Notts (away) 25 from 18 = 1.39 PPG
Total points awarded on PPG would be = 2.13
I'm sure there are many many more examples

 

[Posh Harry]

What is all this antipathy towards Pereteborough about?

As someone who lives in Peterborough but doesn’t support Peterborough, the main issue that people have with them (including myself), is they are owned by an egotistical knob, and the main face of the club (Barry Fry) is a complete embarrassment (and a massive knob), and theit manager is Alex Ferguson’s son.

actually, i don’t hear many bad things about Darren ferguson, but his dad is definitely a knob.

all the above is allegedly of course

 

[Super_horns]

Ipswich are 7 points off the play offs..

Are they that confident if the season carried on they would reach them ..

Can see why teams 1-3 points and places off them would want to carry on.

 

[chipmunx]

There is a very very very very difficult awkward way of point PPG that would shut people up who complain about that - but would annoy a hell of a lot of other people and probably cause more arguments than it settles;-

take the 2 examples Coventry (38/17) v Wycombe (17/16) and Chorley (14/19) v Notts County (25/18)

Coventry would get (38/17 * (3/((38/17) +(17/16))) = 2.03
Wycombe would get (17/16 * (3/((38/17)+(17/16)) = 0.97

Chorley would get 0.74 * (3/(0.74+1.39)) = 1.04
Notts would get 1.39 * (3/(0.74+1.39)) = 1.96

That would need to be done game by game and would have to be done on "Weighted PPG" not unweighted PPG
It would give exactly 3 points from each game - but I can't be arsed doing the whole thing for any league so have no idea how final tables would look.

 

[Chris FGR]

As someone who lives in Peterborough but doesn’t support Peterborough, the main issue that people have with them (including myself), is they are owned by an egotistical knob, and the main face of the club (Barry Fry) is a complete embarrassment (and a massive knob), and theit manager is Alex Ferguson’s son.

actually, i don’t hear many bad things about Darren ferguson, but his dad is definitely a knob.

all the above is allegedly of course

Top bloke is Ferguson junior, apart from the time he booted his misses in the stomach that is.

 

[AdamStag]

What is all this antipathy towards Pereteborough about?

Well, Mcanthony is a class A twat, which is well documented, and most would agree with.

The way he’s acted during all of this is tragic and embarrassing, to say the least.

It’s aimed at him, not at the club as a whole or the fans.

 

[Railway Blue]

As someone who lives in Peterborough but doesn’t support Peterborough, the main issue that people have with them (including myself), is they are owned by an egotistical knob, and the main face of the club (Barry Fry) is a complete embarrassment (and a massive knob), and theit manager is Alex Ferguson’s son.

actually, i don’t hear many bad things about Darren ferguson, but his dad is definitely a knob.

all the above is allegedly of course

Just out of interest, who do you support?

 

[Greenacres]

Whatever happens I hope they get the fuck on with it so that those of us going nowhere can finally start to think about about what happens next. Our club has said nothing official since 24th March with everyone on furlough. Total silence with regards to refunds, contracts etc.

To be fair, communication from our club hasn't really been the same since Joycie left...he now works for Cheltenham and they are well on top of letting their fans know what is happening...coincidence?

 

[Jerry]

If you could throw out all the teams that have been dicks during this crisis, you might end up with Torquay being in L1

I like the sound of this

 

[Jerry]

If you were throwing teams out for being dicks then not sure how a club full of dicks would somehow end up in the league

Seems a tad harsh, what did we ever do to you?

 

[Si Robin]

To be fair, communication from our club hasn't really been the same since Joycie left...he now works for Cheltenham and they are well on top of letting their fans know what is happening...coincidence?

Whilst the club have done some brilliant stuff during lockdown (catching up with ex-players and management regarding our best games over the years) other than the Q&A last week they haven't really done much except regurgitate what the EFL have put out. We still don't know what's going on with season tickets for example, despite being promised this would be announced later in the same week as the Q&A.

 

[Posh Harry]

Just out of interest, who do you support?

Grimsby

 

[Trapdoor]

Seems a tad harsh, what did we ever do to you?

Agreed. Got no problem with the Chipnickers.

(Tim Sills is still a cheating cnut though.)

 

[Chris FGR]

To be fair, communication from our club hasn't really been the same since Joycie left...he now works for Cheltenham and they are well on top of letting their fans know what is happening...coincidence?

Matt and Noah are top lads who do a good job in general. The issue is a) they're on furlough and b) they aren't getting any info to put out.

 

[Devon_Lad]

Seems a tad harsh, what did we ever do to you?

Other than mobbing up with Argyle every time we play 'em, this photo says all it needs to about your fans. Dicks, the lot of 'em

 

[Trapdoor]

That's a classic photo and sums up a lot about the people of torbay. But it's just funny.

 

[Jerry]

Other than mobbing up with Argyle every time we play 'em, this photo says all it needs to about your fans. Dicks, the lot of 'em

Yes we have some twats who "support" us but the same goes for every team unfortunately.

Were we all "dicks" when we were donating to help you to save your club after those crooks shafted you?

 

[Chris FGR]

'Leagues 1 & 2 set to be abandoned next week'

A month later and finally (on Tuesday) it might actually officially happen.

 

[chipmunx]

'Leagues 1 & 2 set to be abandoned next week'

A month later and finally (on Tuesday) it might actually officially happen.

I'm glad you said "might" though....

 

[Railway Blue]

Well, Mcanthony is a class A twat, which is well documented, and most would agree with.

The way he’s acted during all of this is tragic and embarrassing, to say the least.

It’s aimed at him, not at the club as a whole or the fans.

Show me please if it's well documented.

 

[RLC]

This kinda sums up my feelings on the Tranmere situation as well. I understand their want to try and prove they can stay up by playing on, but their proposals are based on some fairly questionable points.

The main points of discussion from their end are:

1) We've won three in a row
2) We have a game in hand
3) We play the four sides above us in our next fixtures

But:

1) Everyone has a decent run of form through a season and it invariably lasts a shorter period of time for clubs at the bottom so there's no guarantee it would continue. Form over 34/35 games holds more water than form over 3 games.

2) Winning the game in hand doesn't change anything and they'd still be in the bottom three unless they can swing 9 goals, which is unlikely.

3) But after that they have an horrendous final 5 games. It's arguable that AFCW actually have an easier run in than Tranmere. Same for Rochdale as well. Accrington are probably the first team who have a tougher run-in.

I don't blame Tranmere for doing what they're trying to do, not one bit. Most others would be doing the same and everyone has sympathy for Tranmere. I've still seen no reason why they've opted to do the calculation over 3 years and not 5, 8 or 10? That's not a dig, I just see don't see why they'd apply that margin for error average over a small period of time unless it's better for them within that time frame.

The flaw in the margin for error calculation they're proposing, according to our end, is that you can't apply the same margin for error across a whole division as they're doing. The margin for error is different for teams at the top of the league and those at the bottom so as a full league, it actually makes their proposal less accurate than PPG.

If you apply the margin for error over the last ten years, we still stay up. Palios has already done that calculation. Of course a margin for error calculation can not give precise forecasts, but it is logically fairer and more accurate than PPG which uses a far smaller data sample and takes no account of historical fluctuations.

With regard to the 'why would their improved form have continued' line, it is because we had a completely different squad in the second half of the season due to players returning from long term injury and January signings.

This was the spine of our team in March:

Clarke
Ellis
Woodyard
McCullough
Vaughan
Cook

NONE of those players were available prior to Christmas !

And even then we did not drop into the bottom three until New Year's Day. Wimbledon and MK had both spent far longer in the bottom three than us.