Athletic Article: League One and Two Seasons to be abandoned next week

[Boletus Edulis]

If you apply the margin for error over the last ten years, we still stay up. Palios has already done that calculation. Of course a margin for error calculation can not give precise forecasts, but it is logically fairer and more accurate than PPG which uses a far smaller data sample and takes no account of historical fluctuations.

With regard to the 'why would their improved form have continued' line, it is because we had a completely different squad in the second half of the season due to players returning from long term injury and January signings.

This was the spine of our team in March:

Clarke
Ellis
Woodyard
McCullough
Vaughan
Cook

NONE of those players were available prior to Christmas !

And even then we did not drop into the bottom three until New Year's Day. Wimbledon and MK had both spent far longer in the bottom three than us.

I am going to assume that you get relegated, if you do your attitude will be important to how you do in League 2. If you take a woe is us, we did not deserve this approach I could see things going badly for you. If you take a we’ll show them approach, you will be more successful. So whiney or defiant.

 

[Luke Imp]

If you apply the margin for error over the last ten years, we still stay up. Palios has already done that calculation. Of course a margin for error calculation can not give precise forecasts, but it is logically fairer and more accurate than PPG which uses a far smaller data sample and takes no account of historical fluctuations.

With regard to the 'why would their improved form have continued' line, it is because we had a completely different squad in the second half of the season due to players returning from long term injury and January signings.

This was the spine of our team in March:

Clarke
Ellis
Woodyard
McCullough
Vaughan
Cook

NONE of those players were available prior to Christmas !

And even then we did not drop into the bottom three until New Year's Day. Wimbledon and MK had both spent far longer in the bottom three than us.

If it's the same over 10 years, then why hasn't he used that? That would have stopped people asking why he's used such a small sample size and shut down one of the arguments against it straight away. More seasons would have made sense.

The way Palios has done it isn't actually that logical because the calculation can't be applied to whole divisions. The margin for error is different at the top of the division compared to the bottom. He's probably kept it uniform to keep it simple but ultimately he's also tried to drag some votes in from the likes of Sunderland, Ipswich and Doncaster by creating an expanded PO system based upon unreliable data.

Not that it matters to L1, but he also forgot to correct the Birmingham point deduction in the Championship last season apparently, which is also a league where the expanded PO would basically be half the division, which is ridiculous.

You can see why he's tried to go that way, and it's commendable, but he's got to a point in the calculation and needed to go much further than he has. As a full division, the calculation actually makes it far less accurate than straight PPG.

Ultimately, the margin for error calculation isn't as good as Tranmere fans think but isn't as bad as other teams think either (because it's seen as self interest, which is obvious and makes sense otherwise what would be the point in Tranmere doing it). The proposal as a whole is like turkeys voting for Xmas, which is where the real trouble lies. You're asking L1 teams to increase the division by 1 team next season, which, although it's an extra game, means less solidarity money. Bottom half teams aren't going to want 5 relegation places next season because 4 is a big number as it is, Rotherham aren't going to want to drop into the PO's and the PO sides with straight PPG aren't going to want to compete with more sides.

 

[dannyc5]

If you apply the margin for error over the last ten years, we still stay up. Palios has already done that calculation. Of course a margin for error calculation can not give precise forecasts, but it is logically fairer and more accurate than PPG which uses a far smaller data sample and takes no account of historical fluctuations.

With regard to the 'why would their improved form have continued' line, it is because we had a completely different squad in the second half of the season due to players returning from long term injury and January signings.

This was the spine of our team in March:

Clarke
Ellis
Woodyard
McCullough
Vaughan
Cook

NONE of those players were available prior to Christmas !

And even then we did not drop into the bottom three until New Year's Day. Wimbledon and MK had both spent far longer in the bottom three than us.

If you were relying on the likes of Mark Ellis and James Vaughan to get you out of trouble, then I can see at least two flaws in your argument.

 

[RLC]

If you were relying on the likes of Mark Ellis and James Vaughan to get you out of trouble, then I can see at least two flaws in your argument.

You are just demonstrating that you know nothing about League One this season. Both players were outstanding for us.

 

[RLC]

If it's the same over 10 years, then why hasn't he used that? That would have stopped people asking why he's used such a small sample size and shut down one of the arguments against it straight away. More seasons would have made sense.

The way Palios has done it isn't actually that logical because the calculation can't be applied to whole divisions. The margin for error is different at the top of the division compared to the bottom. He's probably kept it uniform to keep it simple but ultimately he's also tried to drag some votes in from the likes of Sunderland, Ipswich and Doncaster by creating an expanded PO system based upon unreliable data.

Not that it matters to L1, but he also forgot to correct the Birmingham point deduction in the Championship last season apparently, which is also a league where the expanded PO would basically be half the division, which is ridiculous.

You can see why he's tried to go that way, and it's commendable, but he's got to a point in the calculation and needed to go much further than he has. As a full division, the calculation actually makes it far less accurate than straight PPG.

Ultimately, the margin for error calculation isn't as good as Tranmere fans think but isn't as bad as other teams think either (because it's seen as self interest, which is obvious and makes sense otherwise what would be the point in Tranmere doing it). The proposal as a whole is like turkeys voting for Xmas, which is where the real trouble lies. You're asking L1 teams to increase the division by 1 team next season, which, although it's an extra game, means less solidarity money. Bottom half teams aren't going to want 5 relegation places next season because 4 is a big number as it is, Rotherham aren't going to want to drop into the PO's and the PO sides with straight PPG aren't going to want to compete with more sides.

You are quibbling over the precise mechanism used to calculate the margin for error, but by definition it is more logical than applying pure PPG. If it was not the table after 44 games would inevitably replicate the one after 35. If more time and proper consideration had been given it to it by the EFL a compromise over the precise application could have been reached, but they are more interested in railroading through PPG while paying lip service to other approaches.

In reality, this decision should have been made by an independent regulator and not put in the hands of individual clubs to act in self interest. Of course every other club in the bottom half will vote for PPG, irrespective of the unfairness to us.

 

[RLC]

I am going to assume that you get relegated, if you do your attitude will be important to how you do in League 2. If you take a woe is us, we did not deserve this approach I could see things going badly for you. If you take a we’ll show them approach, you will be more successful. So whiney or defiant.

There will be bo no problem with our attitude. Back to back promotions after relegation to non league, remember ?

However, of course we are going to fight the injustice of this situation, as any other club would. If League Two vote to scrap relegation, we will be the only club in the 91 that is royally screwed.

 

[dannyc5]

Oh come on, stop straw clutching. It’s getting boring. Not just you, but seemingly all Tranmere fans.

Ellis used to play for my team. He was ok, but was part of an absolutely shocking defence. Not the type of player to pin your survival hopes on.

Vaughan has never been a prolific goal scorer, and struggled in League 2 with Bradford this very season.

Both ok players, but they do nothing to help you and your fellow fans perpetuate the myth that you had survival in your grasp. I say again. If you were relying on players like those 2 to get you out of trouble, then survival would have been a struggle.

Of course though, you could have survived. But let’s face it, you have been in the bottom 3 since the end of December, when you supposedly strengthened and got players back fit. I’m afraid none of the statistical data (ie the league table and form table since January) backs up the claim that you have improved beyond recognition since then.

It’s tough for you. It’s unfair. But the pandemic has been unfair, and unfortunately you will be one of the few to lose the most.

 

[dannyc5]

There will be bo no problem with our attitude. Back to back promotions after relegation to non league, remember ?

However, of course we are going to fight the injustice of this situation, as any other club would. If League Two vote to scrap relegation, we will be the only club in the 91 that is royally screwed.

League 2 will not scrap relegation. Stevenage or Macclesfield will go.

 

[dannyc5]

You are quibbling over the precise mechanism used to calculate the margin for error, but by definition it is more logical than applying pure PPG. If it was not the table after 44 games would inevitably replicate the one after 35. If more time and proper consideration had been given it to it by the EFL a compromise over the precise application could have been reached, but they are more interested in railroading through PPG while paying lip service to other approaches.

In reality, this decision should have been made by an independent regulator and not put in the hands of individual clubs to act in self interest. Of course every other club in the bottom half will vote for PPG, irrespective of the unfairness to us.

You think an independent regulator would come up with a similar proposal to Palios?

 

[RLC]

Oh come on, stop straw clutching. It’s getting boring. Not just you, but seemingly all Tranmere fans.d

Ellis used to play for my team. He was ok, but was part of an absolutely shocking defence. Not the type of player to pin your survival hopes on.

Vaughan has never been a prolific goal scorer, and struggled in League 2 with Bradford this very season.

Both ok players, but they do nothing to help you and your fellow fans perpetuate the myth that you had survival in your grasp. I say again. If you were relying on players like those 2 to get you out of trouble, then survival would have been a struggle.

Of course though, you could have survived. But let’s face it, you have been in the bottom 3 since the end of December, when you supposedly strengthened and got players back fit. I’m afraid none of the statistical data (ie the league table and form table since January) backs up the claim that you have improved beyond recognition since then.

It’s tough for you. It’s unfair. But the pandemic has been unfair, and unfortunately you will be one of the few to lose the most.

Vaughan has averaged a goal every two games with us and Bradford this season. So that is something else you get wrong.

We had strengthened our squad in January in 6 or 7 positions and we did not even drop into the relegation zone until New Year's Day. We then had the distraction of the FA Cup and a series of postponements but were winning those games in hand (3 in a row) when the season was curtailed.

Having watched every game home and away I think I am in a better position than you to assess the strength of our squad and our chances of survival. It was touch and go between us, Wimbledon, MK and Rochdale as even their supporters would admit.

Unless you claim a team three points from safety in early March, with a game in hand, the four teams above them still to play, and in better form than any of them, is inevitably relegated ? And if you do, I would suggest you are lying.

 

[Devon_Lad]

You think an independent regulator would come up with a similar proposal to Palios?

An independent regulator certainly wouldn't use ppg. Its the most moronic way to finalise positions known to man.

 

[RLC]

You think an independent regulator would come up with a similar proposal to Palios?

Yes, if they were trying to achieve fairness they would use a more accurate statistical model than PPG and take account of the margin for error. Statisticians have actually commented on our plan and stated that it IS more logical than PPG.

 

[dannyc5]

So we have James Vaughan, Mark Ellis and now an imaginary independent regulator that could all have kept you up, if only they were given the chance.

Listen, I have (actually, had, until making the mistake of looking at Tranmere fans views on Twitter) great sympathy with your plight, and wish that a footballing solution was sought such as a relegation/promotion play off for example. But this proposal is too convoluted for me, and seemingly, too convoluted for most neutrals as well.

 

[dannyc5]

An independent regulator certainly wouldn't use ppg. Its the most moronic way to finalise positions known to man.

What would they come up with then?

 

[dannyc5]

Vaughan has averaged a goal every two games with us and Bradford this season. So that is something else you get wrong.

We had strengthened our squad in January in 6 or 7 positions and we did not even drop into the relegation zone until New Year's Day. We then had the distraction of the FA Cup and a series of postponements but were winning those games in hand (3 in a row) when the season was curtailed.

Having watched every game home and away I think I am in a better position than you to assess the strength of our squad and our chances of survival. It was touch and go between us, Wimbledon, MK and Rochdale as even their supporters would admit.

Unless you claim a team three points from safety in early March, with a game in hand, the four teams above them still to play, and in better form than any of them, is inevitably relegated ? And if you do, I would suggest you are lying.

14 in 33 is not once every 2 games. And the 2 seasons before this, he scored around 1 in 10. He has only ever had 1 prolific season with Bury, when they were on financial steroids and bought League 2. He may have banged the goals in for you, but history suggests it more likely he would not.

Listen, I’ve not seen anyone suggest you inevitably relegated. I certainly have not said that. However, you were in the bottom 3 when the season was stopped. The season can’t be finished, a resolution is needed. I agree PPG isn’t completely fair (have said this repeatedly FFS) and would much prefer Tranmere had put forward a proposal that includes them having to earn their survival. However, the Palios proposal is nonsense.

Ps. You may have watched every game this season, but I am afraid the table does not lie. And it never does.

 

[Boz]

I'm surprised at some of the bile directed at my club on here. If you're being honest with yourselves, most clubs in a similar position to TRFC on another date would be fighting their corner in the same way as the Palioi have been doing here and their supporters would be unhappy if that wasn't the case.

Nobody can say with any certainty how the L1 season would end with the games being played out. If Rovers had done well with the March games and continued the momentum against those sides in the lower half of the table, then we could have only needed a handful of points from the tougher April games to stay up. However as it looks highly unlikely these games will be played, we'll never know.

Rovers at the start of this season were being outbid in terms of player deals by sides in L2, so our relative financial position wasn't that strong. There was an option for the chairs to do a Bury/Bolton and throw money we didn't have at the problem. While that might have come back to bite us in the longer term, they chose not to do that. As a result of their prudent approach, we were in with a fighting chance of avoiding relegation on the field and the funds to play all of the remaining games even behind closed doors. It feels that the fact that others have been unable to manage their finances in a similar way means that the season will be stopped is penalising Rovers for financial good management.

Despite all the above, I'm pretty much resigned to being relegated, as collateral damage. There is no doubt this will have a significant financial impact on Rovers next season, even if that can ultimately resume in front of spectators. While I have no doubt that Rovers players/management will have the right attitude, but it is hard to be confident about how things will progress.

 

[dannyc5]

I'm surprised at some of the bile directed at my club on here. If you're being honest with yourselves, most clubs in a similar position to TRFC on another date would be fighting their corner in the same way as the Palioi have been doing here and their supporters would be unhappy if that wasn't the case.

Nobody can say with any certainty how the L1 season would end with the games being played out. If Rovers had done well with the March games and continued the momentum against those sides in the lower half of the table, then we could have only needed a handful of points from the tougher April games to stay up. However as it looks highly unlikely these games will be played, we'll never know.

Rovers at the start of this season were being outbid in terms of player deals by sides in L2, so our relative financial position wasn't that strong. There was an option for the chairs to do a Bury/Bolton and throw money we didn't have at the problem. While that might have come back to bite us in the longer term, they chose not to do that. As a result of their prudent approach, we were in with a fighting chance of avoiding relegation on the field and the funds to play all of the remaining games even behind closed doors. It feels that the fact that others have been unable to manage their finances in a similar way means that the season will be stopped is penalising Rovers for financial good management.

Despite all the above, I'm pretty much resigned to being relegated, as collateral damage. There is no doubt this will have a significant financial impact on Rovers next season, even if that can ultimately resume in front of spectators. While I have no doubt that Rovers players/management will have the right attitude, but it is hard to be confident about how things will progress.

If all at the club are so confident you would stay up, why the hell was a footballing proposal not put forward by Palios? As many have said, myself included, they would have got fully behind a proposal if it meant you got the chance to fight for your place. Instead, what Palios and the fans want is a get out of jail free card. Bottom 3 in March, then stay up without kicking a ball. Are you seriously suggesting that you cannot see for a second why this may not seem fair to other fans? This isn’t anti Tranmere bile like you and others seem to think. Trust me, nobody cares that much about Tranmere to hold a grudge like that, much like nobody really cares about any other team except their own.

 

[northstandexile]

This is the formulae that should be used, I think matches played on 12th March need to be added on though.



https://experimental361.com/2020/03/08/e-ratings-update-league-1-8-mar-2020/

 

[dannyc5]

This is the formulae that should be used, I think matches played on 12th March need to be added on though.



https://experimental361.com/2020/03/08/e-ratings-update-league-1-8-mar-2020/

Does this take James Vaughan into account?

 

[Trapdoor]

This is the formulae that should be used, I think matches played on 12th March need to be added on though.

https://experimental361.com/2020/03/08/e-ratings-update-league-1-8-mar-2020/

This is a more realistic method than the ppg method used. It's effectively a gaussian mixture model which is a more legitimate method for prediction of variables than a blanket linear estimate.

 

[Huntsman94]

Does this take James Vaughan into account?

Wonder if you'll get your head around the fact that some players perform better in different surroundings with players around them that play to their strengths etc. 14 goals in 33 may not be a goal in every two games as you so finely pointed out but it's a much better record than what you're making him out to have. But hey what to do we know about our team in comparison to you.

And when you keep going on about a lack of a footballing proposal from us, we openly said that we wanted to finish the season but if you look at the clubs in the league, continuing to play out the season was never going to get the votes due to the financial implications for the majority of clubs. And if we suggested a relegation playoff, you're going to get the exact same reaction from clubs. So when you go on about a "get out of jail free card", it's not our fault that other clubs won't want this settled on the pitch. (And I don't blame them given the costs involved)

Regardless, none of this really matters anymore because I think it's very clear to see that we'll be relegated tomorrow with the outcome of the vote.

 

[dannyc5]

Wonder if you'll get your head around the fact that some players perform better in different surroundings with players around them that play to their strengths etc. 14 goals in 33 may not be a goal in every two games as you so finely pointed out but it's a much better record than what you're making him out to have. But hey what to do we know about our team in comparison to you.

And when you keep going on about a lack of a footballing proposal from us, we openly said that we wanted to finish the season but if you look at the clubs in the league, continuing to play out the season was never going to get the votes due to the financial implications for the majority of clubs. And if we suggested a relegation playoff, you're going to get the exact same reaction from clubs. So when you go on about a "get out of jail free card", it's not our fault that other clubs won't want this settled on the pitch. (And I don't blame them given the costs involved)

Regardless, none of this really matters anymore because I think it's very clear to see that we'll be relegated tomorrow with the outcome of the vote.

He had played 8 times for you scoring 3 goals for crying out loud. The majority of his goals this season came in league 2 (and he was not prolific). Hardly proof he was going to fire you to safety. His career stats CLEARLY suggest he probably would not have done.

Of course you wanted to finish the season. That goes without saying. But that was just lip service as it was never going to happen once we went past a certain point, so an alternative model should have been put forward. How do you know you would have had the same reaction from clubs if you had suggested a relegation play off? Why would mid table clubs say no to giving you a fighting chance? I am sure Stevenage would have gone for it (remember, if the amendments are voted down tomorrow they are relegated), the Championship relegation clubs surely would have as well as a back up in the event they can’t finish their season, and I don’t see why clubs in the automatic places via PPG would not have voted for it. Obviously the play off clubs would have gone against, but that is only 8 out of 72, maybe 12 if the Championship clubs were worried about the Premier League reaction.

 

[dannyc5]

I have also done a quick PPG total for Tranmere. Pre January it is 0.95, post January it is 0.92.

 

[Greenacres]

I have also done a quick PPG total for Tranmere. Pre January it is 0.95, post January it is 0.92.

Ah, but have you gone back 17 seasons to give them enough PPG to avoid relegation?

 

[RLC]

Does this take James Vaughan into account?

Somebedy with a scoring ratio of 14 in 33 is more than good enough to keep a team in League One, as anybody who actually saw him play this season could testify. It is incredible how your knowledge of the key players I mentioned above is greater than those of us who actually watched them play every week.

And as I have said, our weaker squad from the first half of the season was never in the relegation zone prior to the cup run and postponements.

 

[RLC]

So we have James Vaughan, Mark Ellis and now an imaginary independent regulator that could all have kept you up, if only they were given the chance.

Listen, I have (actually, had, until making the mistake of looking at Tranmere fans views on Twitter) great sympathy with your plight, and wish that a footballing solution was sought such as a relegation/promotion play off for example. But this proposal is too convoluted for me, and seemingly, too convoluted for most neutrals as well.

Which basically just means you don't understand the maths.

 

[RLC]

If all at the club are so confident you would stay up, why the hell was a footballing proposal not put forward by Palios? As many have said, myself included, they would have got fully behind a proposal if it meant you got the chance to fight for your place. Instead, what Palios and the fans want is a get out of jail free card. Bottom 3 in March, then stay up without kicking a ball. Are you seriously suggesting that you cannot see for a second why this may not seem fair to other fans? This isn’t anti Tranmere bile like you and others seem to think. Trust me, nobody cares that much about Tranmere to hold a grudge like that, much like nobody really cares about any other team except their own.

We did want to play on. However, a number of other clubs made it clear they could not afford to, so we tried to reach a compromise. Unfortunately none of those clubs showed the same concern for our financial future as we did for theirs.

 

[dannyc5]

Somebedy with a scoring ratio of 14 in 33 is more than good enough to keep a team in League One, as anybody who actually saw him play this season could testify. It is incredible how your knowledge of the key players I mentioned above is greater than those of us who actually watched them play every week.

And as I have said, our weaker squad from the first half of the season was never in the relegation zone prior to the cup run and postponements.

Zzzzzzzz boring, you are so biased that I am starting to pity you.

He has scored around 10 goals in league 1 in the past 3 seasons he has played here lol. He played 10 games for a good Pompey team last season and didn’t score once. He. Is. Not. A. Knight. In. Shining. Armour.

And thanks for quoting a selection of posts. I notice you didn’t respond to the pre January and post January PPG post (which shows this post January resurgence nonsense is a complete myth), and also the one querying why you didn’t put forward a footballing proposal that included a relegation play off, which would have been a fair and entirely reasonable way to resolve this situation.

 

[Valeite]

Please keep Tranmere in league 1, we don`t want to go there.

 

[Huntsman94]

Zzzzzzzz boring, you are so biased that I am starting to pity you.

He has scored around 10 goals in league 1 in the past 3 seasons he has played here lol. He played 10 games for a good Pompey team last season and didn’t score once. He. Is. Not. A. Knight. In. Shining. Armour.

And thanks for quoting a selection of posts. I notice you didn’t respond to the pre January and post January PPG post (which shows this post January resurgence nonsense is a complete myth), and also the one querying why you didn’t put forward a footballing proposal that included a relegation play off, which would have been a fair and entirely reasonable way to resolve this situation.

Going to keep this short and sweet now. A relegation playoff never would have got the votes hence a proposal wasn't even considered. We of course would want to finish this on the pitch but the teams above us and around us both had no interest in doing so and wouldn't have the finances to do so.

Resurgence definition: an increase or revival after a period of little activity. Our last 5 games were DLWWW when the five prior to that were LLLLL.

No point taking this much further as unfortunately we'll be relegated tomorrow or Wednesday and have to gear up for fighting back in League 2 next season