European Union Referendum

[Ebeneezer Goode]

I think if you are seen to be cutting off democratic avenues to change that people feel passionately about (whether that's technically accurate or not) then you pretty much guarantee political violence. There's no way reneging on Brexit promises doesn't turn ugly.

 

[Laker]

I don’t think Brexit is going to happen now. They’ll vote against no deal, vote to extend article 50, gain agreement from the EU to extend it, then ultimately it’ll be scrapped.

If a non-major party stood on an anti-EU/anti-establishment manifesto at the next election then I’m certain they’d get a ton of votes next time round. Loads of people at the football tonight are just done with politics and voting for the major parties as their belief is “what’s the point”.

It’s all rather dispiriting to be honest.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The main problem, and it's been a problem for years, is that the conservative party are not really a conservative party. All they really represent is globalist capitalism and an alternative to an increasingly neo-Marxist Labour party. The party either needs to collapse and be rebuilt or replaced entirely.

 

[Red]

Parliament will reject 'no deal' tomorrow. That doesn't remove it as the default option, of course; however, it's a necessary prelude to more meaningful action.

Parliament could vote to seek an Article 50 extension. It almost certainly will on Thursday. The EU27 might not grant it (it requires unanimous agreement, I think), but it can be sought.

If the EU says non/nein/nee, Parliament could avoid 'no deal' by voting to unilaterally nix the Article 50 process.

That's probably what the EU wants. That's probably what 80% of our MPs want to do, and gladly would do if they thought they could act with political impunity.

My hot take: they might as well remove all pretense from this situation and just go ahead and do it.

It would suck, but I'm not going to riot or raze the House of Commons. People like me (inadvertently) caused this constitutional crisis by thinking EU withdrawal could be achieved without first electing a government ideologically committed to the idea. Looking at it now*, that was unthinkably silly.

What can I say? People can believe all sorts of nonsense when they really want to.

Nix it. EU-sceptics like me need to start again.

* Actually, this is has been apparent for a very long time.

I don't think she wants to go down in history as the PM that drove us over the cliff edge with a no deal Brexit, nor do I think she wants to be the PM that failed to leave the EU after a referendum. Do you think she might choose a third way and make enough concessions to Labour's softer version of Brexit to win them, over?

With no deal off the table, thus forestalling it for the time being, and delaying the A50 deadline, if that happens (and as you say the EU permitting it) it'll buy her time to possibly make concessions to get a new deal through.

 

[Red]

I think if you are seen to be cutting off democratic avenues to change that people feel passionately about (whether that's technically accurate or not) then you pretty much guarantee political violence. There's no way reneging on Brexit promises doesn't turn ugly.

I suspect you might be right in terms of the potential for violence, but only among a minority, the Tommy Robinson fans of this world for example. Do you think it might incite a spread of violence more widely though, among ordinarily civilised people ala the Poll Tax riots?

Democracy is really the best way to manage things, but when information is poor and people are misled, shouldn't the quality of a democracy be called into question? I think given what we know now as opposed to what we know back in 2016 gives rise to more people wanting a second referendum.

 

[Red]

The main problem, and it's been a problem for years, is that the conservative party are not really a conservative party. All they really represent is globalist capitalism and an alternative to an increasingly neo-Marxist Labour party. The party either needs to collapse and be rebuilt or replaced entirely.

Yes, Brexit has always been about stopping the Conservatives disintegrating over Europe, it's been dogging them for years and Cameron sought to put a stop to it. He most certainly failed. If we have a no deal Brexit I think many of the Europhiles in the parliamentary party, including cabinet ministers, will resign and if we stay in the EU or have a soft Brexit the ERG types will continue to be disruptive.

Neo - Marxist Labour party? I think that's pretty wide of the mark. There was nothing neo - Marxist in their manifesto which was not too dissimilar from the politics of left leaning Scandinavian parties and governments. I truly do not think a neo-Marxist party in Britain would garner the kind of gain Corbyn made in the last election, such is the hostility towards Marxism held by the vast majority of the electorate.

 

[Red]

I don’t think Brexit is going to happen now. They’ll vote against no deal, vote to extend article 50, gain agreement from the EU to extend it, then ultimately it’ll be scrapped.

If a non-major party stood on an anti-EU/anti-establishment manifesto at the next election then I’m certain they’d get a ton of votes next time round. Loads of people at the football tonight are just done with politics and voting for the major parties as their belief is “what’s the point”.

It’s all rather dispiriting to be honest.

I think it will happen, it would cause the most catastrophic crisis in trust if it didn't and we'd be a laughing stock (if we're not already) on the world stage. I reckon a no deal Brexit is more likely than remaining. Who knows though, anything could happen in what has turned out to be an unpredictable clusterfuck.

 

[Fompous Part]

Do you think she might choose a third way and make enough concessions to Labour's softer version of Brexit to win them, over?

Mate, I'm on my fourth glass of Old Pulteney and I've just finished reading a Twitter exchange about how Mike Freer will be allowed to remain a government whip despite breaking the three-line whip he just imposed on himself. I have no fucking idea what's going on.

Sorry.

 

[PuB]

Groundhog May is planning to present her deal with no changes for a third time...

 

[Laker]

Groundhog May is planning to present her deal with no changes for a third time...

And the worry is that the ERG and DUP might actually vote for it.

The deal is so bad even the most ardent Brexiteer would agree you might as well stay in the EU rather than agree to this.

 

[PuB]

Whether you're a leaver or a remainer, that deal is a fucking pile of shite.

 

[Fompous Part]

Totally stealing "Groundhog May".

 

[PuB]

Feel free my friend!

 

[Laker]

So Stephen Barclay voted against extending Article 50. He’s the Brexit secretary so presumably he’s got to now convince the EU to grant the extension that he voted against himself? That’s amazing.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The talk last night was that Brexit activists were in Italy trying to get Matteo Salvini to veto the extension.

 

[Chris FGR]

If the EU say no to extending the deadline could we not just revoke A50 and then invoke it again straight away to give ourselves 2 more years to get a better deal?

 

[Laker]

If the EU say no to extending the deadline could we not just revoke A50 and then invoke it again straight away to give ourselves 2 more years to get a better deal?

Love the thinking. Not sure if it’s “in the spirit” so to speak!

 

[Red]

Groundhog May is planning to present her deal with no changes for a third time...

She keeps banging on about respecting the 'democratic will of the people', but it seems she is unwilling to accept parliamentary democracy.

 

[Gladders]

Probably because the only majority in parliament is to rule out every possible option

 

[jacobncfc]

Probably because the only majority in parliament is to rule out every possible option

I think this is probably a rare occasion where parliament is completely reflective of the country!

 

[Super_horns]

No 3rd vote allowed on the current deal according to the Speaker.

 

[Fompous Part]

Quelle surprise.

Article 50 extension request it is, then. If the EU27 refuse, the government has a choice: revoke Article 50 or leave with no deal. Very unlikely that Mrs May would allow the latter.

High stakes.

 

[Super_horns]

Trouble for her she has always insisted we will be leaving on March 29th...

I mean all the TV channels have set up programmes for it!

 

[Laker]

I don’t like Bercow but he’s fantastic theatre. Proper box office.

I’m so relieved that May’s deal is now not viable, I was worried the DUP and the ERG might vote it through. That was the worst of all possible outcomes.

Interesting to see what the EU do now. The default position is no deal but there is a clear desire from a majority in Parliament (amazingly one actually exists on something) to avoid that. But the EU have sort of hinted that an extension could only be granted if the UK provides good reason for it.

So in 11 days what good reason could be generated by a parliament which has found common ground on next to nothing? I guess the EU could offer an extension with no conditions attached but that would be a diversion from their position. And it needs unanimous approval from all 27 countries too, many of whom would need convincing/sweetening I imagine.

I think no Brexit or no deal are the only outcomes now. Will be a lot of very upset people with either.

 

[Fompous Part]

I’m so relieved that May’s deal is now not viable. I was worried the DUP and the ERG might vote it through.

I suspect our esteemed Speaker had the same concern. Support for the deal appeared to be growing.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

They are quite clearly going to betray the referendum and use the parliamentary vote against No Deal to try and justify it. The Tory party needs to be burned to the ground for this.

 

[Super_horns]

Sounds like Mrs May wants to defy the Speaker and demand a 3rd vote.

Maybe she'll only lose by 100 this time?

 

[Laker]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-47622059

As people don’t become adults til their thirties, maybe we should have a “people’s vote” for over 30s only. Seems a fair way to break the impasse....

 

[Fompous Part]

The anecdotal evidence (i.e. my everyday interactions, tinged by bog-standard prejudice) has long supported the idea that the voting age should be increased, not decreased. Great to know the science is on my side!

 

[Gladders]

They are quite clearly going to betray the referendum and use the parliamentary vote against No Deal to try and justify it. The Tory party needs to be burned to the ground for this.

It ain't just the tories though, it's the entire parliament. None of them care about anything other than their own party.

May could have come up with the best deal ever to leave the EU and Labour, SNP etc. would have voted against it.

Biggest mistake May made was calling a general election, and then not involving Labour in negotiating a sensible deal they could both agree on with the EU. Especially as Corbyn really really wants to leave the EU which is at odds with the rest of his party.