European Union Referendum

[silkyman]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/lond...off-ftse-100-in-shares-meltdown-a3271356.html

 

[silkyman]

No party in the UK suffers more from FPTP than UKIP (see 2015: 12.7% of the vote but 0.2% of the seats), so Farage and most of its members are all for PR. Have been for a while actually

Can't remember the total figures off the top of my head, but when you totted up Lib Dem, Green and UKIP, something like 25% of the vote had roughly 1.5% of the representation.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The EU made a law against workplace LGBT discrimination which as far as I can tell is separate from the ECHR. I think us beginning the 'dismantling' of the EU would lead to laws such as those being abandoned in some EU countries. And whilst one law in itself may seem small I hope that a continued EU would seek to advance on it.

What if it doesn't? What if it reverses it? What's to stop the continent lurching toward hard conservatism in the future and nominating a load of backward EU councillors?

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Can't remember the total figures off the top of my head, but when you totted up Lib Dem, Green and UKIP, something like 25% of the vote had roughly 1.5% of the representation.

Very close. 24.3% of the vote and 1.6% of the seats. Or, put another way, 10 seats (out of a possible 650!) despite accounting for nearly a quarter of the popular vote. And that's just basing it on the people who voted. God knows how many were discouraged from voting because of the lack of proportionality in the system. I mean, if you're a Labour supporter who lives in rural Somerset, why bother? You know must know your vote is going to count for fuck all. Ditto if you're a Tory supporter in somewhere like Barnsley.

FPTP is an anachronism. It has to go.

 

[smat]

FPTP is an anachronism. It has to go.

How can it? Srs question. Labour+Tories are the only ones who'll ever get to make the decision, and they never would. We're stuck, aren't we?

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

If growing UKIP support can force the Conservatives to hold an EU referendum then it shouldn't be outside the realms of possibility that UKIP, the Greens, the Lib Dems etc. could force a similar promise with regard to the voting system.

 

[silkyman]

Tell me about it. Macclesfield hasn't had a less than 15% Tory majority since 1971's close by-election, and it's usually well into the 20s.

The last time it wasn't Conservative was just because it was a Unionist at the time, and has been 106 years since a non Conservative MP. I almost didn't bother.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

TBH, Matt, I don't know. At present the best hope is that we get another situation like 2010, where one of the smaller parties can wrangle a PR referendum as part of a coalition agreement. And, you know, make a better fist of it than the Lib Dems.

 

[blade1889]

What if it doesn't? What if it reverses it? What's to stop the continent lurching toward hard conservatism in the future and nominating a load of backward EU councillors?

I don't see that as likely in the slightest

 

[silkyman]

My back of a fag packet idea is to dispose of the house of Lords (no more hereditary peers and religious leaders... FFS, the Brexiters complain about unelected officials!) and replace it with people selected by PR.

The pool of people they are selected from could come from the losing candidates at the general election. i.e. in the current government, the tory who got the most votes but didn't win his seat, is first on the list up to 36.8% of the total number of 'Lords' (which would be 294) and so on through to the top voted member of any party that gets more than 0.125% of the overall UK vote. (That's about 40,000, which would keep the real nutters out)

So everyone is officially elected and every single vote actually counts

 

[silkyman]

I don't see that as likely in the slightest

It'd have to be one hell of a lurch to the right... We'd need to be somewhere approaching National Socialism before people suddenly started enshrining something like that into law.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

It'd have to be one hell of a lurch to the right... We'd need to be somewhere approaching National Socialism before people suddenly started enshrining something like that into law.

I don't think so, proposed laws in the US come close to turning back the clock all the time. It wouldn't take much for a law to be passed allowing adaptation agencies to discriminate, or some sort of conscience law for example.

 

[silkyman]

Georgia tried something like that to allow people to discriminate against homosexuals and basically everyone, from big business to Hollywood said 'do that and we're off' so they had to pull the plug.

The people wouldn't stand for it.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-on-trent-eu-referendum-video?CMP=embed_video

Georgia tried something like that to allow people to discriminate against homosexuals and basically everyone, from big business to Hollywood said 'do that and we're off' so they had to pull the plug.

The people wouldn't stand for it.

It was only a matter of decades ago that we were chemically castrating homosexuals. Social change happens incredibly quickly nowadays. The UK is one of the most tolerant countries in the EU, I see no reason why they couldn't collectively drag us back a peg or two in the unforeseeable future.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

The EU made a law against workplace LGBT discrimination which as far as I can tell is separate from the ECHR. I think us beginning the 'dismantling' of the EU would lead to laws such as those being abandoned in some EU countries. And whilst one law in itself may seem small I hope that a continued EU would seek to advance on it.

Sorry, I missed this earlier.

Presumably any laws that benefit and/or protect LGBT people will remain part of the Acquis (EU law) regardless of how we vote next week. Their legislative force isn't contingent on our membership. They would, in the event of Brexit, still apply to the remaining member nations.

I may have misconstrued (in which case please correct me), but your concern seems to be based on two assumptions. First, Brexit will precipitate a collapse of the EU. Second, without the EU certain countries will regress or cease to make progress with regards to LGBT rights and welfare. Is that correct?

There probably is something in that second assumption. It's not my subject but it kinda intuitively makes sense. The first assumption (on which the second assumptions rests) seems a massive leap, though. Quite a lot of people have posited this idea that us leaving is going to lead to the whole thing unravelling. I'm not sure why. Is it really that weak?

 

[blade1889]

Sorry, I missed this earlier.

Presumably any laws that benefit and/or protect LGBT people will remain part of the Acquis (EU law) regardless of how we vote next week. Their legislative force isn't contingent on our membership. They would, in the event of Brexit, still apply to the remaining member nations.

I may have misconstrued (in which case please correct me), but your concern seems to be based on two assumptions. First, Brexit will precipitate a collapse of the EU. Second, without the EU certain countries will regress or cease to make progress with regards to LGBT rights and welfare. Is that correct?

There probably is something in that second assumption. It's not my subject but it kinda intuitively makes sense. The first assumption (on which the second assumptions rests) seems a massive leap, though. Quite a lot of people have posited this idea that us leaving is going to lead to the whole thing unravelling. I'm not sure why. Is it really that weak?

Those are my assumptions yes... I'm not stating them as fact but it wouldn't surprise me if our vote to leave would inspire a move towards anti-EU parties in other countries. I think there is already a move toward this in Spain and Portugal but could be wrong?

I would rather we stayed in and as a very liberally minded country re LGBT+ (relatively) tried to help further rights across the EU which I don't think we could should we leave.


So my assumptions would be the two you gave plus a third that if we stayed in we are a large voice for continuing the push towards greater equality that we wouldn't otherwise be.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

France and Germany are pushing for referendums on EU membership too. If we leave, I fully believe that the EU will fall.

 

[Captain Scumbag]

Well, we can but hope.

Another cheery thought: Apparently Juncker is coming over to campaign for Remain. Must be worth at least a 10-point swing.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

Do the remain camp realise what an utterly stupid move that is???

 

[Captain Scumbag]

It gets better. Apparently Cameron and Juncker made some kind of gentleman's agreement that Juncker would stay out of the campaign unless Remain were behind in the polls in the closing week. Cameron understandably wanted the drink-sodden, malign fool to stay away completely, but Juncker wanted the option of visiting because he didn't want a Leave vote to be blamed on his lack of involvement. Brilliant.

 

[JaseTheVillain]

If leave is ahead, Juncker is just going to push more people to get the fuck out imo. Great news!

 

[Captain Scumbag]

This may be the most buoyant I've felt in the entire campaign.

 

[blade1889]

It gets better. Apparently Cameron and Juncker made some kind of gentleman's agreement that Juncker would stay out of the campaign unless Remain were behind in the polls in the closing week. Cameron understandably wanted the drink-sodden, malign fool to stay away completely, but Juncker wanted the option of visiting because he didn't want a Leave vote to be blamed on his lack of involvement. Brilliant.

Please tell me this isn't true...where have you got it from

It was like sending Cameron in to fire fight in Scotland's referendum...except probably more damaging

 

[Captain Scumbag]

I read it on Guido but the original story was in Der Spiegel.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

This may be the most buoyant I've felt in the entire campaign.

Ripped out of context. Original source:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-eurogroup-president-idUSBRE94U0R920130531

 

[Captain Scumbag]

First, that's not the original source (he said it at a conference in 2011). Second, I'm not sure your attempt at contextualisation paints him in a more sympathetic light.

There are various 'pro-lie' quotes from Juncker; the context for pretty much all of them is his belief that economic policy in the Eurozone is so serious that it needs to be debated and decided in secret, with lying a perfectly justified means towards achieving that end. Great!

Believe it or not, I actually do have a soft spot for old JC, not least because he's so admirably frank about all sorts of things (including, ironically, his willingness to lie). Probably not the best person to lead to Remain fight back, though.

 

[TheArtfulDodger]

I'm not sure what to believe anymore, some polls showing Leave clearly ahead but Comres still has Remain ahead.

Really don't know, but looks like Leave has a decent chance. Incredibly depressing times, even if we do vote to stay I'm not sure it'll be the end, there's clearly a shift the right in this country (yes I know there are left-wing critics of the EU but the campaign has been largely based on the right-wing arguments) and it's only going to get worse.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

Brexit would trigger second Scottish referendum within three years, Alex Salmond warns - The Telegraph
Increasingly, the Scouts want a divorce from the UK, if it's a Leave.

"If we leave the EU, we'd get a new referendum on Scottish independence. We simply have to."
- Susan Ralston, Scot quoted in the Danish newspaper Politiken

That'd be an insurmountable tragedy, too.

 

[AFCB_Mark]

I can understand why a Brexit would trigger another Jock independence debate, but surely it can't happen within 3 years because the full terms of exit and what the situation for the exiting UK would be going forwards wouldn't be finalised by then. No point repeating one of the main issues with this referendum, and giving the Jocks another vote without first giving them the full picture of what they'd be voting for. 5 years + is surely a more realistic time frame for that?

Loving Junker coming over to campaign for Remain, that's hilarious.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

I can understand why a Brexit would trigger another Jock independence debate, but surely it can't happen within 3 years because the full terms of exit and what the situation for the exiting UK would be going forwards wouldn't be finalised by then. No point repeating one of the main issues with this referendum, and giving the Jocks another vote without first giving them the full picture of what they'd be voting for. 5 years + is surely a more realistic time frame for that?

Does it matter with the time frame? Three or five years, they might want out. So the Scouts want to be both British and European, go figure. And I don't think you can make it without them either.

Loving Junker coming over to campaign for Remain, that's hilarious.

Junker, wherever you are, got a suggestion. Tell the Brits, that if they choose Remain, you promise to resign. Come on, take one for the team.