Is this the way to (Amarillo) relegation?

[Bobbin']

We'll need at least seven wins to stand a chance of avoiding the drop, and even then I think someone will go down with 50+ points this season.

That (7 wins) is a big ask for any of the team's currently in the bottom five, but my concern with us is that we haven't looked like picking up any of the freak results that the others have managed (Bristol City beating Boro, Charlton beating Hull etc.)and we need to do that at some point soon. We can't rely on just picking up those wins against the teams around us as those are going to be massive pressure games over the next few weeks (Bristol City & Huddersfield at home and trips to Blackburn and Charlton). Assuming we get nothing from Boro on Tuesday and away to Derby Saturday then the pressure on us is going to start to mount by the time we go into that run of games.

That win against Hull was in August so wasn't a freak result, we were excellent up until the first international break. So don't be fooled, we don't beat anyone that we shouldn't either.

 

[Camdenite]

I'd be amazed if a team goes down with 50pts this season, no one down there is doubling their current points tally in 17 games.

I'd say win six, draw five and lose six isn't that unfeasible for more than a couple of us. If anyone does that then they probably deserve to stay up, but I have a feeling that we'll all improve our form slightly, just to varying degrees. That's what generally happens in any season at any level, the team's battling for their lives pull the odd result out of the hat.

 

[SF_]

I'd say win six, draw five and lose six isn't that unfeasible for more than a couple of us. If anyone does that then they probably deserve to stay up, but I have a feeling that we'll all improve our form slightly, just to varying degrees. That's what generally happens in any season at any level, the team's battling for their lives pull the odd result out of the hat.

Charlton have won 1 in their last 10 (against Rotherham) - 5 wins in total
Bolton have won 3 in their last 10 (2 of them against Rotherham & MK) - 4 wins in total
Rotherham have won 3 in their last 10 (1 against Bolton) - 7 wins in total
MK Dons have won 3 in their last 10 - 7 wins in total
Bristol City have won 2 in their last 10 (1 against Charlton) - 6 wins in total.

Only Bolton look to in any sort of form (2 wins in their last 3)...I'd say any of those teams winning 6 and drawing 5 of their last 16 games is optimistic. Especially when a lot their previous wins have come against other teams in that bottom 5.

 

[Third Team Lucky]

Some great points there, but I'm slightly more optimistic about MK's chances given that of those last 10 games played, only 1 has been against a fellow bottom 8 side but have yielded 3 wins. Of our remaining games, 6 are against bottom 8 sides and I believe that 3 wins and a draw from these isn't being over optimistic given our 50% win rate against these sides so far. Clearly that isn't enough in isolation and at least 2 more wins and 2 draws are needed from the other 11 games to have any chance of staying up.

Much will depend on morale of the team so the next two games are crucial. Any sort of result against either Middlesbro tonight or Derby on Saturday would give them a real lift going into three games on the spin against fellow strugglers.

 

[SF_]

I think MK will be ok, considering the run in they have, I don't think they'll need 50pts to do it though.

 

[MagpieBee]

I think MK will be ok, considering the run in they have, I don't think they'll need 50pts to do it though.

I would imagine the points total needed this year will be a lot lower than some previous years, maybe 44. Reckon MK and City will be fine, Bolton will fall just short, and Charlton and Rotherham will play it out for last.

 

[Walkley_Owl]

So just two teams down then?

 

[TomPNE94]

So just two teams down then?

read it again

 

[Walkley_Owl]

Doesn't make sense Tom unless he's saying Charlton, Bolton and Rotherham down.

Sent from my HTC One M9 using Tapatalk

 

[Veggie Legs]

Doesn't make sense Tom unless he's saying Charlton, Bolton and Rotherham down.

Bolton will fall just short (of staying up), with Charlton and Rotherham playing it out for last (and the other presumably second last).

 

[JJH]

93rd minute Rhodes equaliser against MK - get the fook in.

 

[Madejski]

After 30 games last season you needed 31 points (or 30 and good GD as Brighton had) to be outside the bottom 3. This season it is currently five points below that.

Last season was 42 points for survival, doubt it will be much different from that this season.

 

[BetterCallSaul]

Should have won tonight. Looked bloody good though, we keep this up safety is on the cards. Extremely proud, and 3 points above the relegation zone. Well done Dons!

 

[Camdenite]

Should have won tonight. Looked bloody good though, we keep this up safety is on the cards. Extremely proud, and 3 points above the relegation zone. Well done Dons!

Could easily have been spanked tonight too though. How Boro werent 2-1 up after the first five minutes of the second half I'll never know. Put it this way, if it had been us chasing that game, we'd have been picked off repeatedly.

A great backs to the wall performance and as Boro got frustrated (or more importantly their fans did) as we grew into the second half and maybe we should have doubled our lead on more than a couple of occasions, but it was the context of the game that led to those chances. Boro were desperate and we had several weapons to expose them (especially that clown playing left back) and should have taken advantage.

It was encouraging how many times we had them turned but frustrating that we couldn't get the second goal to kill it off. Story of our season...

 

[BetterCallSaul]

Murphy should have got the ball in the contender and time wasted but he's a greedy fucker. Still a good performance and a point further away from the relegation zone.

 

[Ciderhead]

Bad day for the bottom 3.

 

[Magic]

Can't see any of those getting out of it.

 

[JJH]

 

[BetterCallSaul]

Great day for us and Bristol City! Draw next weekend lads?

 

[Ciderhead]

Great day for us and Bristol City! Draw next weekend lads?

Nah you're alright, we'll have the win thank you

 

[BetterCallSaul]

Nah you're alright, we'll have the win thank you

Going to be a good game, luckily it won't end with rather of us in the relegation zone next week!

 

[Bobbin']

Bristol City show fight
MK Dons show fight
Bolton show fight

We are just fucking diabolical, 6 points from safety, 7 when you consider our horrific goal difference. It's over.

 

[AnkleBiter]

Blackburn are well in this, they look awful. MK, Bolton and Bristol City look to be improving, Charlton and Rotherham could get a boost from the new managers.

 

[Destruction]

Blackburn are well in this, they look awful. MK, Bolton and Bristol City look to be improving, Charlton and Rotherham could get a boost from the new managers.

I'd love Blackburn to go down but think they have a strong enough defence to grind a few results out to stay clear of the bottom 3.

 

[Camdenite]

I'd love Blackburn to go down but think they have a strong enough defence to grind a few results out to stay clear of the bottom 3.

Yep, my thoughts too, but as I said previously we're all showing a bit of fight down there and teams above now look catchable. We're going to struggle for goals, but seem to have found a way to grind out results. Something we've never had before (yep, and I do mean ever!)

 

[Millerbri]

A creditable draw for us yesterday, especially finishing with 9 men.
There was definitely more fight and I think most of the crowd were pleased with the performance.

As it turned out, the other results took the gloss off the day but there will be other days when it works more in our favour.
We have both MK Dons and Bristol City away in the same week In April so that could be pivotal if we are still in with a chance.

Right now we are in the middle of a rough set of fixtures against the top sides maybe we will be dead and buried by then.
We can only hope the Warnock effect kicks in.
At least I expect to see some fight from the team and yesterday was a better performance than any we have witnessed for some time.

 

[Ciderup]

Has SERNWA disappeared again now that the Millers are struggling?
Here's how I see it.
It does appear that the Addicks are in deep shit, caused by one shite owner. What he has done to a good club is shameful, the Addicks fans have my sympathy.
Boltons' plight remains in the courts IMHO. Avoid admin and they could well stay up but add 12 points on to the deficit and, sorry boys, you won't pull that back even though you are certianly showing some fight.
The Millers, seemed to be pulling clear only to lose any semblance of form as quickly as they found it. They confuse me as they seem to be either really poor or very good. Can Colin save them? With the form of those above them, it's gonna be tough. Out of the current bottom 3, I can genuinely see the Trotters as the most likely to survive but that really depends on the courts.
Of those above, both City and MK have finally found some form and their meeting next week could be a big result for one of the clubs that could be 8 points clear by this time next week. Fulham seem to be doing enough to stay clear with the odd win and anyone higher than that would need a serious loss of form not to get enough to stay clear IMHO.
Blackburn are the side most likely to join the scrap TBH and might well finish 4th from bottom the way things are going. They could even drop, especially if Bolton don't enter admin.
Sorry boys but it's the current bottom 3 to drop as I think City and Mk could pull further away leaving too big a gap and surely Blackburn will pick up.

 

[Bobbin']

Agree.

 

[Millerbri]

Difficult to disagree with that assessment as things stand.
But 4 games ago we were sitting almost pretty and now look at us.
Things can change quickly but our problem is we have to play some tough teams in the next 6 games.
Burnley, Wednesday and Reading away, Brentford, Boro and Derby at home.
Ouch.

 

[Ciderup]

Difficult to disagree with that assessment as things stand.
But 4 games ago we were sitting almost pretty and now look at us.
Things can change quickly but our problem is we have to play some tough teams in the next 6 games.
Burnley, Wednesday and Reading away, Brentford, Boro and Derby at home.
Ouch.

This was my dillemma TBH Bri. The only difference now is that both ourselves and MK are in decent form whereas when you had your good run a while ago, everyone else was losing every week. Don't get me wrong, Colin WILL make a difference but the sides above you are now picking up points making your job a whole lot tougher IMHO. Blackburn COULD definitely sink into the bottom 3 but can yourselves or the Trotters (admin excepted) do enough to both catch and pass anyone given the current gap plus the fact we / MK aren't going to lose every game now?
That's a bitch of a run of fixtures BTW.
Looking at the points column, I reckon it MIGHT take nearly 50 to stay up!