Promotion odds

[BarrieOwl]

"play League One football because they choose to, others because they can’t get a Championship gig"

I think that's a key quote. No footballer would choose to play in league 1 if they were good enough to play higher and if they are good enough to play higher they would have got a championship gig by now.

I guess we'll see. I think last season was a bit of an anomaly in terms of points. I think it'll be a closer league.

Bannan could have left us on several occasions but chose not to and is probably the best midfielder in the division and will be again next season.

 

[GeneralLee]

Bannan could have left us on several occasions but chose not to and is probably the best midfielder in the division and will be again next season.

This.

We have one or two who could and should be playing comfortably at that level. The rest are untried at the level above. CamBran appears to enjoy living in Oxfordshire and the lifestyle suits him. *Keeps fingers crossed he doesn’t leave now!*

 

[GeneralLee]

Is Matty Taylor still in your mix? For some reason I wondered if we might be able to tempt him back here once he gets to the autumn of his playing days.

I think unless we secure promotion, he’ll be with us for a good few years yet. He looks to be in his prime right now. Starting out late in the professional game in some ways perhaps aids his longevity.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I think unless we secure promotion, he’ll be with us for a good few years yet. He looks to be in his prime right now. Starting out late in the professional game in some ways perhaps aids his longevity.

Until he leaves you for Swindon...

 

[leedsvaliant]

Its like the first day of secondary school and the older kids telling you that you are going to get a kick-in or head down the bogs.
Lets face it, if Wycombe can get promoted then finish in the play off final the last 2 seasons they were in L1, it cant be that amazing.

This.

Definitely some overplaying of the standard. It can't have changed that much in 5 years.

 

[SVH]

Wycombe were one of the best sides to visit the abbey last season. Sam Vokes one of the best teams in the league and an all round quality team. Ainsworth has done a fantastic job so not sure using them as a if they can do it, anyone can.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

This.

Definitely some overplaying of the standard. It can't have changed that much in 5 years.

We were only away for 1 season. Of course we got relegated but that was more to do with us being very very bad rather than the rest of the league being great.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Wycombe were one of the best sides to visit the abbey last season. Sam Vokes one of the best teams in the league and an all round quality team. Ainsworth has done a fantastic job so not sure using them as a if they can do it, anyone can.

Sorry I probably wasnt clear. Im not saying Wycombe are a bad side, just that they prove you dont need to spend big money on transfer fees or wages to get success in this league, as I cant imagine their budget is massive.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Bannan could have left us on several occasions but chose not to and is probably the best midfielder in the division and will be again next season.

Great player no doubt, but you have to question why. Does he not believe in his talent? Why has nobody really pursuing him with an offer too good to turn down?

 

[BarrieOwl]

Great player no doubt, but you have to question why. Does he not believe in his talent? Why has nobody really pursuing him with an offer too good to turn down?

He says he owes it to the club to get us back but also a part of it, for me, is he wants to be the big fish in the pond rather than test himself, that said he's settled at the club.

 

[kieran_vale]

He says he owes it to the club to get us back but also a part of it, for me, is he wants to be the big fish in the pond rather than test himself, that said he's settled at the club.

Just as a general point I do like to see things like that from players. Shows they do genuinely care at least. A lot to be said for things like being settled in the area as well assuming he lives nearby, if a player has a young family etc is it worth uprooting them for a little more money possibly?

 

[Bartonyellow]

Great player no doubt, but you have to question why. Does he not believe in his talent? Why has nobody really pursuing him with an offer too good to turn down?

I think because Wednesday are a huge club and not much bigger in the championship. So he perhaps wants to go on that journey with them. Perhaps his family is settled in the area. I think if they don’t go up this season he may leave however.

 

[valefan16]

Just as a general point I do like to see things like that from players. Shows they do genuinely care at least. A lot to be said for things like being settled in the area as well assuming he lives nearby, if a player has a young family etc is it worth uprooting them for a little more money possibly?

Lets hope James Gibbons has the same feelings!

 

[Topher]

I was about to suggest that presumably this rise in quality at the top end of L1 must mean a drop in quality in the Champ, but more logically I guess it means that alll the good L1 players are concentrated among a few teams when usually even the teams lower down would have a couple of pretty high standard players. Is that about right or na?

 

[leedsvaliant]

I think because Wednesday are a huge club and not much bigger in the championship. So he perhaps wants to go on that journey with them. Perhaps his family is settled in the area. I think if they don’t go up this season he may leave however.

Fair play to him if that's the case.

 

[cookiemonster]

I'm sure what will happen is that we will play one of the so-called big teams in EFL1 off the park one week, wonder what all the fuss was about, and then get battered by one of the so-called lesser teams the next. And that's football.

 

[masi51]

What makes you say that?

We've been third, sixth, and eighth for the last three seasons and have retained all of last season's players that we wanted to. We now have the squad space, and money, for 5 or 6 top level additions. We're not some tinpot outfit that's just ridden our luck for a few months. We'll be up there again and it'll surprise no one.

Ipswich Bookies fav for the title
Bolton lost three games after New year and Pompey will be stronger with Cowleys re build
Very impressed with Oxford but they also will have to improve just to stay where they are..........Hence why i dont think many if any will break into the top ten who finished in the bottom half of the league last season and you can include the promoted teams in that

 

[masi51]

My question to you would be did any of those sides ever really threaten the top six (a fleeting run of form aside)?

The world isn’t against Bolton (who by the way we’re brilliant against us at the Kass). As evidenced, they performed well in part but never genuinely threatened to amass enough points and certainly weren’t consistent across a whole season. Portsmouth were rebuilding and will go again. Ipswich had a high turnover of playing staff and changed direction mid-season with their management. Poor might be a stretch, however none of those sides ever showed consistency to significantly trouble Plymouth, Ox, Wycombe, MK, Sheff Wednesday and Sunderland. Whether Bolton make the top six this season or not, there will still likely be a drop in quality across a whole season (heck, we didn’t even make the top six!) so we are part of the equation. None of of were good enough.

Case in point, I thought Ipswich gave us a real lesson at the Kass. But you get those sides that chop and change in January and have a go over a three month period but faltered over the rest of the campaign. It’ll happen again next season. Evidently over a whole season if a team doesn’t perform the table doesn’t lie (ourselves and our deficiencies included).

Bolton never threatened the top 10 first half of the season because we basically had A players who could not step up from lge 2 B Bad injuries and Covid Oct/Nov
After Christmas we was as good as anything in the league despite still having 4/5 long term injuries.
We are getting stronger each transfer window.....Started well again by bringing Iredale and Trafford in since the season ended

 

[eric read]

Ipswich Bookies fav for the title
Bolton lost three games after New year and Pompey will be stronger with Cowleys re build
Very impressed with Oxford but they also will have to improve just to stay where they are..........Hence why i dont think many if any will break into the top ten who finished in the bottom half of the league last season and you can include the promoted teams in that

Bookies favourites means nothing at this stage though. Sunderland and Wednesday were favourites at this stage last year, and neither of them won the League. That said, I think Ipswich will probably challenge for the top six, but it's not a given, as they've been fancied for the last three seasons and haven't made it above ninth yet.

I'm not so sure about Portsmouth either, as they have a lot of improving to do and not sure they have the finances needed due to Eisner not putting the money in. I also think the Cowley's are very one dimensional and are not that dissimilar to Kenny Jackett.

I was impressed with Bolton last season though. It was two good games against you. We should have won the first one though, and it was only a late goal that won it for you at our place.

It's very dismissive of you to say all three will sail past Oxford, for the reasons I've mentioned. I'd think there's more chance of Wycombe dropping out of the top places, due to the age of their squad and finances not being as healthy as the other clubs. They may have had their days in the sun.

I don't think any of the relegated sides will have it all their way either. Derby, who knows, but it's not looking good. Peterborough will be there or there about the play-off places, but can't see them any higher. And Barnsley I think will be mid table.

Agree with you about the promoted sides.

 

[BarrieOwl]

Bookies favourites means nothing at this stage though. Sunderland and Wednesday were favourites at this stage last year, and neither of them won the League. That said, I think Ipswich will probably challenge for the top six, but it's not a given, as they've been fancied for the last three seasons and haven't made it above ninth yet.

I'm not so sure about Portsmouth either, as they have a lot of improving to do and not sure they have the finances needed due to Eisner not putting the money in. I also think the Cowley's are very one dimensional and are not that dissimilar to Kenny Jackett.

I was impressed with Bolton last season though. It was two good games against you. We should have won the first one though, and it was only a late goal that won it for you at our place.

It's very dismissive of you to say all three will sail past Oxford, for the reasons I've mentioned. I'd think there's more chance of Wycombe dropping out of the top places, due to the age of their squad and finances not being as healthy as the other clubs. They may have had their days in the sun.

I don't think any of the relegated sides will have it all their way either. Derby, who knows, but it's not looking good. Peterborough will be there or there about the play-off places, but can't see them any higher. And Barnsley I think will be mid table.

Agree with you about the promoted sides.

Not sure how we were bookies favourites last season, we had no squad til about the first week of August, much like Derby this season.

 

[eric read]

Not sure how we were bookies favourites last season, we had no squad til about the first week of August, much like Derby this season.

Exactly, and kind of makes my point mate.

 

[kieran_vale]

Ipswich Bookies fav for the title
Bolton lost three games after New year and Pompey will be stronger with Cowleys re build
Very impressed with Oxford but they also will have to improve just to stay where they are..........Hence why i dont think many if any will break into the top ten who finished in the bottom half of the league last season and you can include the promoted teams in that

Charlton surely would have a shout even if things seem not too stable behind the scenes from a distance? On the face of it they have some good players and have spent money before so I could see them getting up there.

For what it's worth I agree none of the promoted teams will likely finish in the top ten. In our case we have two areas that need addressing and that is the goalkeeper and adding some pace to the team. I'm not convinced by either of our present keepers for different reasons and think they will get punished more against naturally better finishers.

 

[masi51]

Bookies favourites means nothing at this stage though. Sunderland and Wednesday were favourites at this stage last year, and neither of them won the League. That said, I think Ipswich will probably challenge for the top six, but it's not a given, as they've been fancied for the last three seasons and haven't made it above ninth yet.

I'm not so sure about Portsmouth either, as they have a lot of improving to do and not sure they have the finances needed due to Eisner not putting the money in. I also think the Cowley's are very one dimensional and are not that dissimilar to Kenny Jackett.

I was impressed with Bolton last season though. It was two good games against you. We should have won the first one though, and it was only a late goal that won it for you at our place.

It's very dismissive of you to say all three will sail past Oxford, for the reasons I've mentioned. I'd think there's more chance of Wycombe dropping out of the top places, due to the age of their squad and finances not being as healthy as the other clubs. They may have had their days in the sun.

I don't think any of the relegated sides will have it all their way either. Derby, who knows, but it's not looking good. Peterborough will be there or there about the play-off places, but can't see them any higher. And Barnsley I think will be mid table.

Agree with you about the promoted sides.

All in all i agree with most of what you say. I was disagreeing with General Lee who was saying the quality only reached the top 8 last season.

Yes Derby can be taken over and muster a team capable of bouncing back or they could mirror us from 3 seasons back and start the season on minus points and a botch up team.

I was pointing out that teams wanting to hit the top ten next season will have to be decent

 

[leedsvaliant]

Charlton surely would have a shout even if things seem not too stable behind the scenes from a distance? On the face of it they have some good players and have spent money before so I could see them getting up there.

For what it's worth I agree none of the promoted teams will likely finish in the top ten. In our case we have two areas that need addressing and that is the goalkeeper and adding some pace to the team. I'm not convinced by either of our present keepers for different reasons and think they will get punished more against naturally better finishers.

I tend to agree. I think we'll finish somewhere between 12th to 16th which would be fine to get established. We need to incrementally add pace and some midfielders with real skill and guile to complement Conlon. I also agree that we need a better keeper. Is the top 12 beyond us or indeed any team in this league? Is it heck but I don't see it in our first season back. The building up of this league to be something it is not is just nuts.

I have trust that over the next 4 or 5 years we'll have a team to be challenging at the top end or at the very least heading in the right direction.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I tend to agree. I think we'll finish somewhere between 12th to 16th which would be fine to get established. We need to incrementally add pace and some midfielders with real skill and guile to complement Conlon. I also agree that we need a better keeper. Is the top 12 beyond us or indeed any team in this league? Is it heck but I don't see it in our first season back. The building up of this league to be something it is not is just nuts.

I have trust that over the next 4 or 5 years we'll have a team to be challenging at the top end or at the very least heading in the right direction.

I wouldnt be too sure about that. The last time we got promoted to this league we finished 10th in the first season (would have been higher had Matty Taylor not slithered away), then got progressively worse each season until we got relegated.
Ive seen it happen for other clubs too that the first season after promotion is their highest finish

 

[Sydney Posse]

Can’t see us troubling the top half of the table with our budget, but that’s okay, will be well happy with a bit of mid table obscurity for our first season back up for a while. The odd win against the bigger fish will be nice. Definitely don’t think we will be fighting relegation if we keep our squad together and sort out a replacement for Dawson who was brilliant for us in goal last season and pick up another half decent striker.

 

[bigfatron]

Looking at the odds on relegation and promotion together there are some quite interesting anomalies:

So the obvious stuff, Ipswich are favourites for promotion and longest odds for relegation; Morecambe are the equal least likely to get promoted and most likely to get relegated (not sure I agree with the latter but that's a different point)
But Derby have short odds for promotion, but quite short odds for relegation too - they are sort of expected to do one or the other.
Whereas Cambridge and Accrington have relatively long odds for promotion (Cambridge are longest odds along with Morecambe) but are not backed to be relegated either. So these two clubs are perhaps shortest odds for mid-table obscurity!

Which all makes sense I suppose...

 

[cookiemonster]

Presumably the smaller the budget the more vulnerable clubs are to poor results due to injuries, because they don't have the squad depth? If that's true the likes of Accrington must be more reliant on their first choice XI staying fit than the bigger spenders.

 

[Lancs@(Bantam)]

So after skimming through this thread I can't see any real unbiased predictions. Any legit unbiased predictions from fans in here who've been following transfers etc??
L1 seems a distant memory to us so I feel I'm miles out of touch regarding who's looking promising and who's not.
Looking through the teams in here though at a glance it does look hugely wide open and possibly there for the taking for more than half teams if one of them get it together and get lucky with injuries.
Peterborough perhaps?? They seem to be a serial L1 promotion team.

 

[huddsmoose]

It seems lazy to predict that the bigger clubs will finish near the top but I suspect most of them will next year.

Wednesday finished last season strongly and have the core of a decent squad in place. Ipswich have some great players and will invest heavily again. Bolton have got their shit together after dispensing with the pointless tippy tappy passing and will be strong.

Not sold on Charlton's managerial appointment and they don't seem a club who have their shit together yet. Derby, god knows.

Of the rest, unfortunately the filthy Pish will retain a decent squad and Macanthony doesn't mind paying out for young talent so I suspect they'll be up there. Oxford have a good and settled squad and MK Dons, despite losing players always recruit well so should be ok. Plymouth have retained the core of their squad and their manager seems impressive.

Hardly anyone seems to have signed any players yet though so the picture could alter dramatically!