Promotion this year

[Mansfield_Ram]

Agree turkey with the main point of the post. We are on a rocky ride currently but a good result against burnley and all of a sudden things start to change in terms of confidence.

There's an awful long way to go yet. All id say regarding Brighton is that if or when you injured players return, those that got you there will believe they have just as much a right to stay in the team - this can work for comprtiton or it can have a detrimental effect where results don't go your way and hughton starts chopping and changing the team. This is our problem right now - big squad and clement is trying to keep everyone happy. Ours is obviously self inflicted with silly numbers coming in and none really going out b

 

[Turkey]

Depends what state we're in. Even Bolton could beat us at the minute.

It's not that bad surely. Losing to Middlesbrough is no disgrace. Reading are a good side and Birmingham are in play-off contention.
Everyone's going to drop points. You'll be back on form soon I reckon.

 

[Mansfield_Ram]

The performances are dreadful at the minute. Really reslly bad

 

[Madejski]

You quote a statistics website to show how good you are in attack/defence as a reason to believe your league position.. Statistics isn't everything. According to that graph you link to, Reading have the best attack/defence in the league, but we are 14th in the league, not top.

 

[Rammy]

It's not that bad surely. Losing to Middlesbrough is no disgrace. Reading are a good side and Birmingham are in play-off contention.
Everyone's going to drop points. You'll be back on form soon I reckon.

As Mansfield_Ram said, it's the performances that are concerning. We were absolutely dire against Reading and Birmingham. Reading should have battered us too, but didn't despite 'apparently' having the best attack in the league.

Is it as simple as those two quick goals at Middlesbrough have knocked our confidence, or is there something going on behind the scenes?

 

[Turkey]

Agree turkey with the main point of the post. We are on a rocky ride currently but a good result against burnley and all of a sudden things start to change in terms of confidence.

There's an awful long way to go yet. All id say regarding Brighton is that if or when you injured players return, those that got you there will believe they have just as much a right to stay in the team - this can work for comprtiton or it can have a detrimental effect where results don't go your way and hughton starts chopping and changing the team. This is our problem right now - big squad and clement is trying to keep everyone happy. Ours is obviously self inflicted with silly numbers coming in and none really going out b

The benefit in that respect is Liam Ridgewell is only on a short term loan and will go back to the MLS for the start of their season in March. Bong will be back in the next month to reclaim his left back spot so that should be a smooth transition. Solly March is out for the season so won't be returning to the side so Knockaert has that position nailed down now. Perhaps there'll be a few disgruntled but it shouldn't be too bad.

You quote a statistics website to show how good you are in attack/defence as a reason to believe your league position.. Statistics isn't everything. According to that graph you link to, Reading have the best attack/defence in the league, but we are 14th in the league, not top.

I 100% agree it isn't everything. Which is why winning by more than one goal isn't everything. If it points to anything it's that we should both be doing better than we are. Something I'd agree with. There's plenty of games we should have won by more than one goal. Equally I thought you looked a good side when we drew at the Madejski.

 

[Bobbin']

Are fans of Derby, sitting in third really complaining about their team's performances?

I mean, really?

 

[Veggie Legs]

You quote a statistics website to show how good you are in attack/defence as a reason to believe your league position.. Statistics isn't everything. According to that graph you link to, Reading have the best attack/defence in the league, but we are 14th in the league, not top.

This is a better graph from the same website to show attacking/defensive performances.

Obviously it doesn't match up exactly with the league table but it's a good measure of underlying performance. It possibly suggests that teams like Reading and Blackburn aren't getting as good results as they deserve, but no model is perfect. Also worth remembering that luck is a significant factor in football and over a small sample of matches (i.e. just those from this season), this could easily account for the differences between all the teams clustered in the middle.

 

[TomPNE94]

This is a better graph from the same website to show attacking/defensive performances.

Obviously it doesn't match up exactly with the league table but it's a good measure of underlying performance. It possibly suggests that teams like Reading and Blackburn aren't getting as good results as they deserve, but no model is perfect. Also worth remembering that luck is a significant factor in football and over a small sample of matches (i.e. just those from this season), this could easily account for the differences between all the teams clustered in the middle.

3rd best defence, 3rd worst attack.

I miss Beckford

 

[SF_]

3rd best defence, 3rd worst attack.

I miss Beckford

Some North End fans might disagree but I think we've missed Humphrey as well, end product isn't the greatest but you can't knock his ability to pick up the ball in a defensive position and drive down that wing to get into good areas.

 

[Istanbul North End]

I don't get that graph at all - Fulham and Burnley, 2nd and 3rd highest scorers, are in the "worse attack" half of the chart, while Bolton....

 

[TomPNE94]

Yeah that graph is total nonsense actually

 

[TomPNE94]

Middlesbrough have easily the best defence for example

 

[M Dogg]

This is a better graph from the same website to show attacking/defensive performances.

Obviously it doesn't match up exactly with the league table but it's a good measure of underlying performance. It possibly suggests that teams like Reading and Blackburn aren't getting as good results as they deserve, but no model is perfect. Also worth remembering that luck is a significant factor in football and over a small sample of matches (i.e. just those from this season), this could easily account for the differences between all the teams clustered in the middle.

This is an odd graphic. We have the 5th best defence but are the 7th worst scorers, as per the league table.

That graph suggests we are the 4th best team in the league. Hull, Brighton, Derby are obviously up there, but us, Blackburn and Reading look out of place.

 

[Veggie Legs]

Have a look at the other graphs on this page http://experimental361.com/2016/01/17/scatter-graphics-championship-16-jan-2016/
Forest and Reading in particular seem to have a problem with poor finishing - lots of shots but that's not translating into goals.

 

[Bobbin']

I think that graph is very accurate.

We are fucking shit.

 

[Munkiki]

That graph suggests we are the 4th best team in the league.

no it doesn't...

 

[Madejski]

Have a look at the other graphs on this page http://experimental361.com/2016/01/17/scatter-graphics-championship-16-jan-2016/
Forest and Reading in particular seem to have a problem with poor finishing - lots of shots but that's not translating into goals.

Nick Blackman factor probably. Can't be a player in the league who takes more shots a game than him, he must get close to double figures a game. So watch us fall dramatically down this graph over the coming months.

That and the fact that our current strikeforce is Vydra, Robson-Kanu and Cox.. Three strikers who can't finish.

 

[Luke_1884]

Are fans of Derby, sitting in third really complaining about their team's performances?

I mean, really?

I see no reason not to complain, we could just look at the table and pretend it's all rosey but it's far from it. From top of the league and at one point 12 points clear of 6th to now potentially 9 points off top spot and now 4 points off 6th. If Burnley beat us on Monday and Brighton win we're down to 5th, seriously looking over our shoulder at Wednesday, Ipswich and Birmingham.

2 points from twelve is relegation form. Of course we're complaining.

 

[Turkey]

I don't get that graph at all - Fulham and Burnley, 2nd and 3rd highest scorers, are in the "worse attack" half of the chart, while Bolton....

I believe it's based on the expected goals scored and conceded based on the number of shots taken and number of shots faced? So it won't reflect the table as some sides will take more of their chances and some will concede less regardless of the number of sots they give away.

 

[Bobbin']

I see no reason not to complain, we could just look at the table and pretend it's all rosey but it's far from it. From top of the league and at one point 12 points clear of 6th to now potentially 9 points off top spot and now 4 points off 6th. If Burnley beat us on Monday and Brighton win we're down to 5th, seriously looking over our shoulder at Wednesday, Ipswich and Birmingham.

2 points from twelve is relegation form. Of course we're complaining.

My post was largely tongue in cheek, obviously all fans will complain but your performances have been below par from what you would expect from a side of Derby's quality.

It was more to make the point that if you want to see what actual dire performances are then take a trip down to The Valley.

 

[M Dogg]

no it doesn't...

5th, sorry.

 

[Tom_ITFC]

5th, sorry.

Try again.

 

[Istanbul North End]

I believe it's based on the expected goals scored and conceded based on the number of shots taken and number of shots faced? So it won't reflect the table as some sides will take more of their chances and some will concede less regardless of the number of sots they give away.

Cheers - we have a graph that gives me no clue that Bolton are even shitter than Charlton. If I happen to already know that, then this graph tells me that Bolton are shit more efficiently than Charlton. Call me old-fashioned, but I'll stick to goal difference.

 

[M Dogg]

Try again.

FFS

 

[M Dogg]

I don't understand.

 

[Tom_ITFC]

I don't understand.

Just follow the diagonal lines, if there is a team in the section below or to the right then they are deemed to be better than Forest. Boro, Reading, Blackburn, Derby, Hull and Brighton are all deemed better than Forest in that graph.

 

[Luke_1884]

My post was largely tongue in cheek, obviously all fans will complain but your performances have been below par from what you would expect from a side of Derby's quality.

It was more to make the point that if you want to see what actual dire performances are then take a trip down to The Valley.

I dunno mate, despite the recent score differences I bet there's not been much in the performances, especially our last two! Brum could have had 5. Hopefully those sort of performances will stay well clear of the iPro in future.

 

[Rammy]

Pride Park, Luke. Pride Park.

None of this iPro nonsense.

 

[M Dogg]

Look James if you want Andreas Weimann sitting on your bench scratching his arse on 150 grand a week you will have to deal with the consequences of having your ground named after something that sounds like a piece of computer software.