Relegation Thread 2017/18

[Vanni]

I love the one Lincoln fan in the Ipswich end who unzips his coat to reveal his Lincoln shirt and runs down the front!

Haha. Took me a couple of replays to see what you're referring to! And I think there's also a steward celebrating that goal. I know stewards are fans just like the rest of us, but I don't think that's allowed.

 

[shoddycollins]

There's always ridiculous Police overkill wherever we go, this was at Mansfield with only 1200 there, last season there was 1650 with no trouble whatsoever too.
View attachment 7911

If I was a burglar in Mansfield I'd know when to time my activities.

 

[Dave-Vale]

It’s almost like we are all desperate to get relegated

 

[TimeyWimey]

Incredible we scored in the 97th minute.

Even more incredible we didn’t concede in the 98th.

 

[JJ1532]

It’s almost like we are all desperate to get relegated

Not us, we're 2 unbeaten for the first time since August! Mid-table here we come!

Nah, in all seriousness whilst we deserved a draw today, we still put in a patchy performance and have a long way to go before we can think about safety. We started well but a ball floats over Ray's head and Bowditch finishes it nicely. Created a few decent chances in the first half, but didn't do enough to score.

2nd was more of the same, start well, pushing for an equaliser, then another Ray mistake and it's 2-0. That's our last 3 that he can at least part of the blame for, if not all. He owes Kirk and Ng a pint tonight.

Game looks like it's heading for a standard defeat to nil, but Ng has put one in the top corner from 20 yards on his left foot. The lad can hit a ball well tbf.

Stevenage dropped deep and their keeper has made a stunning save from Shaun Miller in the 96th minute, thought our chance had gone. But fair play, super cross from Pickering and Kirk of all people nods in at the far post. Utter scenes in the away end, can't believe I celebrated an equaliser away at Stevenage with such force.

Felt we deserved the draw, kept working and didn't give up. Stevenage got what they deserved, had 3 players hit the deck through ''injuries" in the last 10 minutes, although one did get subbed off to be fair.

I'll admit, I was surprised when 7 minutes stoppage time went up, expected 5 max. Not going to complain though, officials had a mare today. Gave us a few soft calls and we probably got most of the 50/50s, although I felt they missed a clear foul on Ray for a penalty late on. Can't complain too much though, draw was fair I thought.

Got 2 big home games now against Coventry and FGR now, a win from one of them would be huge.

 

[Randolph Haggerty]

Crewe seem to have found a bit of fight recently, fgr despite losing today, and looking the worst side i’ve ever seen seen at vale have recruited well and will be alright.
Vale have Barnet on Tuesday and have still to play chesterfield and crewe.
Whoever goes down will deserve it.
It’s a 4 way between vale, Grimsby, chesterfield and Barnet.I reckon on the bottom 2 as is dropping

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Having seen the fixtures I really fear for Yeovil, having to play all of the Top 8, Colchester and a Forest Green side who are in good nick of late.

Barnet have to play most, if not all, of us so they could easily go on quite a run to stay up as they've notoriously done at this level. Chesterfield and Grimsby don't have kind run ins either.

We have a nicer run in than most but it depends which Crewe turn up. A point earned today was a bonus and all our remaining home games are winnable. Our away games involve two mid-table sides (Crawley and Newport), two promotion contenders in Luton and Mansfield and Barnet so if we scabbed 4-6 points from them (with avoiding defeat at Barnet paramount) I think we'll do the business at home to guide us to safety.

 

[valefan16]

We are going to draw our way to safety! Having barely getting a draw all season we’ve managed 5 in our last 10!

Our games in hand may be crucial starting Tuesday, beat Barnet we will be 10 plus GD better than them which is a big gap for them to turn around on us and Chesterfield 9 plus GD so would look much more rosier heading into two home games against an average Stevenage side and a tough Exeter one.

Once Wycombe is out the way the following week (and they’ve been wobbling lately) we have an ok run in, Chesterfield at home and Crewe away both very winnable over Easter then finish off with sides with little to play for.

Three wins will probably be enough for us, if we can get that first one Tuesday we should be ok, lose it though and we will be struggling. Pope being out until Easter isn’t ideal either.

Gutted as I am today had you offered me a point and gaining a point on the bottom two without knowing the circumstances (of us missing penalty and conceding at the death) id have took it. I guess we could of won and at one stage would have been a point worse off on the bottom two than we are now when CFC were winning. Clinging on though and we’d have been breathing a lot easier tonight.

Il know more this time next week as to our chances IMO two games we should be fancying winning if we have anything about us, 4 points would be a decent return to get us going.

 

[dedwardp]

The way it's going Chesterfield and Barnet will ensure you all stay up through their own doing.

 

[valefan16]

The way it's going Chesterfield and Barnet will ensure you all stay up through their own doing.

Well this is it, 5 points in 10 games we’ve took, we were 11 clear now 6! So over ten games and 5 points from 30 we’ve only been clawed back by 5 points!

 

[Urban]

We didn't play poorly at all today. Their GK made two great saves and ours was barely needed, annoyingly. Coventry seemed solid though and while I won't ignore that that would've been a below par performance from them we didn't play badly. We didn't deserve to lose that one - and it's very rare any Barnet fan can say that with any kind of conviction.

When we go down, it won't be matches like Coventry away that we can pin the blame on.

 

[Davidimp]

I love the one Lincoln fan in the Ipswich end who unzips his coat to reveal his Lincoln shirt and runs down the front!

Quite a few imps bought tickets for the away end but he was clearly the only one who didn't get his ticket cancelled as the others did.

 

[darren gregory]

Can't see beyond Grimsby for one spot.
16 now without a win. We are abysmal but they managed to make us look ok.
Grimsby and Barnet for me.

 

[valefan16]

Can't see beyond Grimsby for one spot.
16 now without a win. We are abysmal but they managed to make us look ok.
Grimsby and Barnet for me.

Grimsby have the issue of having most teams having a game or even two in hand. Bookies oddly have us 20/1 far longer odds than Crewe, Yeovil etc. Hope they are right!

 

[PaulHaddock]

Important thing now is that we have the advantage over Chesterfield. Whether that will stay the same after the next two games is the concern.

 

[JJ1532]

51 - Safety 2013
50 - Safety 2014
49 -
48 -
47 - Safety 2017
46 -
45 - Safety 2012
44 -
43 -
43 -
42 - Safety 2015
41 -
40 -
39 - Predicted Safety 17-18
38 - Yeovil(35)
37 - Crewe(36), Forest Green(36), Grimsby(37)
36 - Morecambe(35), Port Vale(35)
35 - Safety 2016
34 -
33 -
32 -
31 -
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 - Chesterfield(35)
29 - Barnet(36)

Forthcoming fixtures:

17th Yeovil(35) - 38 points. Exeter(A), Colchester(A), Accrington(A), Forest Green(H), Coventry(A), Luton(H), Swindon(A), Wycombe(H), Notts County(A), Mansfield(H), Lincoln(A)
18th Crewe(36) - 37 points.Coventry(H), Forest Green(H), Newport(A), Barnet(A), Port Vale(H), Mansfield(A), Luton(A), Morecambe(H), Crawley(A), Cheltenham(H)
19th Forest Green(36) - 37 points. Accrington(A), Crewe(A), Mansfield(H), Yeovil(A), Colchester(H), Barnet(A), Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Luton(A), Grimsby(H)
20th Grimsby(37) - 37 points. Lincoln(A), Coventry(A), Stevenage(H), Wycombe(A), Chesterfield(H), Barnet(H), Swindon(A), Notts County(H), Forest Green(A)
21st Morecambe(35) - 36 points. Exeter(H), Colchester(H), Lincoln(H), Swindon(A), Cambridge(H), Cheltenham(A), Chesterfield(H), Carlisle(H), Crewe(A), Barnet(H), Coventry(A)
22nd Port Vale(35) - 36 points. Barnet(A), Stevenage(H), Exeter(H), Wycombe(A), Chesterfield(H), Crewe(A), Crawley(H), Lincoln(H), Mansfield(A), Carlisle(H), Cambridge(A)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Chesterfield(35) - 30 points. Cheltenham(A), Notts County(H), Port Vale(A), Newport(H), Grimsby(A), Morecambe(A), Mansfield(H), Exeter(A), Forest Green(A), Wycombe(H), Barnet(A)
24th Barnet(36) - 29 points. Port Vale(H), Wycombe(H), Luton(A), Crewe(H), Stevenage(A), Forest Green(H), Grimsby(A), Newport(H), Morecambe(A), Chesterfield(H)

Right, I doubt they'll be any complaints if I remove Cheltenham from this update. They have 44 points and after a thumping win against Swindon, they won't be going down. Working down the table, as previously mentioned, jesus do Yeovil have a horrific run in. They could easily get passed by the teams below them with the run in they have and when you are losing at home to a no win in 9 Newport, things don't look good. I fear for them with that run in, plus them having 7 of their last 11 away from home.

The Alex have shown some fight in their last 2 and our run in is relatively favourable. I'm growing more confident of not going down, but we still need to I think get past 45 points, reckon that will be enough. Forest Green seemed unlucky against Notts County and they have enough winnable games to probably stay up. Need an away win or two in all likelihood though. Grimsby's long winless run goes on, but the way they salvaged a point against the Vale might be the spark they need to kick on. Jolley clearly has his work cut out for him though. Those back to back home games against Chesterfield and Barnet could decide their fate.

Morecambe are going to some tough places and getting results, only lost 1 of their last 5 which is good. Need wins though and their next month looks very difficult. But still, Bentley knows how to keep them in the FL, so write them off at your peril. The Vale should have won against Grimsby but fluffed it. Huge game for them at Barnet in midweek, please don't lose FFS!

Chesterfield have lost 5 of their last 6, that just won't cut it. Still got time to close the gap, but they need to make a move soon. Their remaining home games look tough, but got some potentially winnable away fixtures. Too bad their away record is shite. They'll need to win a couple on their travels you'd have thought. Finally Barnet can't seem to close that gap either, they are clearly banking heavily on beating the Vale on Tuesday, do that and the teams above them will get really nervous.

Big game is Barnet v Vale on Tuesday, then none of the bottom 8 play each other next weekend. Lots of 6 pointers to come though. Shaping up to be a fascinating run in down here.

 

[Si Robin]

I was never really concerned, but it is nice to be removed from this thread now.

 

[Chris FGR]

Crewe seem to have found a bit of fight recently, fgr despite losing today, and looking the worst side i’ve ever seen seen at vale have recruited well and will be alright.

The worst ever? Other then yourselves you mean? We were the better side that day. One of our better away performances.

 

[valefan16]

The worst ever? Other then yourselves you mean? We were the better side that day. One of our better away performances.

Second half you looked ok when we sat back but that first half to be fair he has a point. You looked way out your depth (and we were dreadful under Brown at that point). The fact we didn’t win but managed to pick up a first point in seven games stillsaw Brown sacked for failing to beat you!

 

[Chris FGR]

That was because he said you'd definitely beat us, as he assumed we were shit which gave you false expectations and added pressure on him. Shouldn't have underestimated us.

Tbf that was our only point in 8 games too, a run that included several hammerings, but we were still the better footballing side that day

 

[valefan16]

That was because he said you'd definitely beat us, as he assumed we were shit which gave you false expectations. Btw that was our only point in 8 games too, a run that included several hammerings, but we were still the better footballing side that day

That was your problem you kept pinging it about the back all first half and gave it away (our goal came from that) you were dire that first half physically a couple of your lads looked like they should be playing youth football. That first half was the worst FL performance I’ve seen so I would agree with the other Valiants view on that (bear in mind this is the poorest Vale side in 40 years if not ever!) that said second half you changed it and looked decent. The lad who came on in midfield was one of the best performances from an opponent this season against us.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Don’t count on us to beat Barnet. I have zero confidence in our ability to get the job done.

A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world because nothing changes and it’s another game towards safety but we are crying out for a win just to boost our confidence. A loss would be a disaster for us and those around us.

 

[valefan16]

Don’t count on us to beat Barnet. I have zero confidence in our ability to get the job done.

A draw wouldn’t be the end of the world because nothing changes and it’s another game towards safety but we are crying out for a win just to boost our confidence. A loss would be a disaster for us and those around us.

Imagine we will set up for a point as it’s a must not lose foremost and would make the gap effectively 8 points with the GD. A win though would be massive and pretty much have us in a position to get the job done.

 

[PaulHaddock]

Also hoping for a draw with Barnet and Vale. Leaves Vale ahead of us on goal difference and Barnet 7 points behind, with both having played the same. Dread to think if Barnet win!

 

[Luke Imp]

Minor mistake in that table - Grimsby have played 37.

 

[PaulHaddock]

Minor mistake in that table - Grimsby have played 37.

Whoops. What I said still applies though.

 

[shoddycollins]

Might be in Barnet's best interests to go down actually.

Scenario 1: Westley keeps Barnet up and spends the summer adding players to their squad by getting a load in on a trial and offering contracts to the ones who can kick the furthest. They start the 2018/19 season lumping it to Akinde but this doesn't really work and Kleanthous pays off Westley's contract in November. After a brief and forgettable spell under McGhee, a new inexperienced manager comes in but is stuck with a load of Westley players and no money for the transfer window after Westley spent half of it on dross and took the rest with him when he was sacked. Akinde leaves in January freeing up some cash and the new manager brings in anyone and everyone in a desperate attempt to salvage their season but it is too late and Barnet go down in debt and with a shit squad, starting 2019/20 in the Conference and needing to rebuild, seems Barnet will be here for a while.

Scenario 2: Despite eventually having his players training 7 days a week and drinking three pints of egg-white before every game, Westley can't quite keep Barnet up and they finish the season in 23rd place, going down on goal difference. Westley and Barnet then part ways amicably and Westley takes over as manager of Real Sociedad, guiding them to the Champions League in what he describes as his 'greatest FM2018 achievement'. Barnet appoint a new manager who goes straight to the locked drawer where they keep their instructions for getting out of the Conference. A team of talented but cheap players is combined with your standard non-league workhorses and Barnet win the Conference title with a record points total and return to League football for 2019/20 fancied to do well.

TLDR: Every now and again Barnet just have to spend a little while outside the League, it's good for them, gives them something to put in their trophy cabinet.

 

[denzel ecfc]

I doubt 39 will be safe will it? That means that everyone except Barnet and Chesterfield are just one win from being safe. And surely at least one of those two will get ten points in ten games.

 

[valefan16]

I doubt 39 will be safe will it? That means that everyone except Barnet and Chesterfield are just one win from being safe. And surely at least one of those two will get ten points in ten games.

It’s bases on points per game so far I think so this assumes they keep the same trajectory.

 

[JJ1532]

Yep, exactly right. Its assuming Chesterfield and Barnet manage the same points per game they've had all season. If Chesterfield do, they'll finish on 38 points, meaning 39 gets you safe. Should they or Barnet suddenly start winning, that will alter, but then you can't forecast that.