Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

[JJ1990]

The expected survival is based solely on the team in 23rd's predicted final points, which is calculated as their current points average per game added multiplied by final remaining games.

So in FGR's case, 30 points from 36 games is 0.83 PPG. 0.83 times their remaining 10 games is 8.3 obviously. Add that to their current points total and round it down, means they are predicted to finish on 38. So 39 is the expected safety line.

It's not a perfect predictor I know. But then it gets really messy when you start calculating form, league positions of opponents and all the other variances which go into other prediction models.

I do agree that it'll probably be more likely to be in the 40s. Think 45 will be enough.

 

[BarraMatt]

I made an amateur mistake on my previous post on this subject and completely forgot that Colchester must be a game or two away from their annual transformation into a prime Real Madrid side for the run in. They'll be fine.

 

[Cloudy]

I made an amateur mistake on my previous post on this subject and completely forgot that Colchester must be a game or two away from their annual transformation into a prime Real Madrid side for the run in. They'll be fine.

Not sure they’ve got it in them this time! No ‘startling’ January window signings. Can’t get their pitch fit enough to play games.
At this moment in time I think time is up for them and Sutton but accept FGR, Grimsby & Salford still in the mix

 

[Son of Cod]

Not sure they’ve got it in them this time! No ‘startling’ January window signings. Can’t get their pitch fit enough to play games.
At this moment in time I think time is up for them and Sutton but accept FGR, Grimsby & Salford still in the mix

Yeah FGR's form and us seemingly turning the tide have had terrible consequences for Colchester. Seeing us both picking up wins last night as they're rained off was a terrible night for them.

I said further up that I wanted 4 points from our difficult 4 forthcoming matches of MKD, Gillingham, Wrexham and Barrow beforeour fixtures get a bit more forgiving. That win last night has given us a superb chance of getting more than that.

 

[GTFCfish]

That could well be a dagger through the heart for FGR today with what looked a home banker and with Grimsby and Colchester both playing play off chasers they would have expected to gain some ground today but they’ve actually lost ground.
For us that’s probably our hardest remaining fixture out of the way and we’ve pulled a point further away, also keeps this unbeaten run going and momentum is a crucial thing in battles like this.

 

[dedwardp]

We sure do love a 1-1 draw these days.

Just the second penalty awarded of the season today, and the second penalty missed - the writing was on the wall when we lost 3-0 in a penalty shootout to Cardiff in our opening game of the season, missing all three of ours there too.

 

[Chris FGR]

Over the last couple of months we've lost to Grimsby and Sutton and drawn at Colchester. 1/9 points against the other 3 sides in it. Not good enough really, our run in looks tough and we've played more games then Grimsby & Colchester.

 

[JJ1990]

58 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Expected Survival 23/24
39 - Grimsby(37)
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 -
33 - Colchester(36)
------------------------------------------------------
33 - Forest Green(38)
32 -
31 -
30 - Sutton(39)

Sutton take 3 points from the last week and I suppose they picked the right game to win, beating FGR and keeping them right in trouble. Games are running out though and the teams above them have games in hand. Does feel like too little too late, but you never know given their favourable run in. FGR though will feel disappointed to beat Bradford and then lose today. That was arguably their last "easy" game for the rest of the season. Could it cost them their EFL status.

Colchester get their pitch sorted, but as I said last week, their backlog of games could either be a blessing or a curse for them. Grimsby keep inching themselves to safety after a 4 point week. Not clear yet, but they keep picking up big results.

I'm very close to bringing Salford back into this discussion given they are only 8 points clear. Let's see how results go next week before we do that.

21st- Grimsby, 38 points, -14 GD: Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 33 points, -19 GD: Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H), Doncaster(H) TBA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 33 points, -25 GD: Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -28 GD: Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 23rd March
Mansfield Town v Colchester United
Doncaster Rovers v Forest Green Rovers
Grimsby Town v Wrexham
Sutton United v Accrington Stanley

Interesting games for each of the teams. Colchester I don't give much hope to. FGR I'm not sure about either given they play an inform Donny. Grimsby I could see getting something from a stuttering Wrexham team and I think Sutton could also make things very interesting by beating Accrington, whose season is all but over. Could be in for a very tense final 7-10 games.

 

[GTFCfish]

We sure do love a 1-1 draw these days.

Same here that was out 9th 1-1 draw today and in 8 of them we’ve scored first.

 

[Gunit]

1-1 draws are sending us down! 10 for us. Well, that and losing lots.

 

[Son of Cod]

Massive point for us that. A well deserved week off due for our lot having just played 5 times in 15 days and come out of it unbeaten having only conceded twice and taken 9 points (which really should have been only conceded once and taken 11 points if we hadn't have been scandalously robbed last weekend).

Superb turnaround after Donny hit 5 past us at BP, not quite there yet but I'd be surprised if we're not safe with a few matches to go. Wrexham at home and Barrow away feel a bit like free hits. Would be nice to get the job all but done before that trip to Colchester third from last match of the season.

 

[Alfie]

58 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Expected Survival 23/24
39 - Grimsby(37)
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 -
33 - Colchester(36)
------------------------------------------------------
33 - Forest Green(38)
32 -
31 -
30 - Sutton(39)

Sutton take 3 points from the last week and I suppose they picked the right game to win, beating FGR and keeping them right in trouble. Games are running out though and the teams above them have games in hand. Does feel like too little too late, but you never know given their favourable run in. FGR though will feel disappointed to beat Bradford and then lose today. That was arguably their last "easy" game for the rest of the season. Could it cost them their EFL status.

Colchester get their pitch sorted, but as I said last week, their backlog of games could either be a blessing or a curse for them. Grimsby keep inching themselves to safety after a 4 point week. Not clear yet, but they keep picking up big results.

I'm very close to bringing Salford back into this discussion given they are only 8 points clear. Let's see how results go next week before we do that.

21st- Grimsby, 38 points, -14 GD: Wrexham(H), Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 33 points, -19 GD: Mansfield(A), Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Crewe(H), Doncaster(H) TBA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Forest Green, 33 points, -25 GD: Doncaster(A), Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)
24th - Sutton, 27 points, -28 GD: Accrington(H), Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)

Next week's fixtures:

Saturday 23rd March
Mansfield Town v Colchester United
Doncaster Rovers v Forest Green Rovers
Grimsby Town v Wrexham
Sutton United v Accrington Stanley

Interesting games for each of the teams. Colchester I don't give much hope to. FGR I'm not sure about either given they play an inform Donny. Grimsby I could see getting something from a stuttering Wrexham team and I think Sutton could also make things very interesting by beating Accrington, whose season is all but over. Could be in for a very tense final 7-10 games.

Still plenty of matches left and every club in relegation trouble will be hoping for a winning run before season end.
But lets look at possible King Makers.
Of the 4 clubs mentioned none have the same opponent although three do and by-the-'eck those three are prime promotion candidates.

Wrexham v Grimsby, Colchester, FGR
Stockport v Colchester, FGR, Sutton
Crewe v Grimsby, Colchester, FGR,
Crawley v Grimsby, Colchester, Sutton

And of course there might be a 6-pointer: -
Grimsby v Colchester.

Of the top three teams (Wrexham, Stockport & Crewe), both Colchester & FGR must play them.

I can see some twists before season end but if I were a betting man I'd plump my house on Sutton & FGR going down.

 

[JJ1990]

55 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Expected Survival 23/24
39 - Grimsby(38)
38 -
37 -
36 -
35 -
34 - Colchester(37)
------------------------------------------------------
33 - Sutton(40), Forest Green(39)

Sutton give themselves a fighting chance with a good home win over Accrington. Still going to be doing a lot of praying that Colchester drop points in all their games in hand, but they're still alive just. FGR looked to be building some momentum, but back to back defeats have them bottom again.

Colchester are trying to draw their way to safety it seems, they can only get 1-1s. Grimsby lost to Wrexham, but they have some favourable home games which could be enough to get them to safety.

21st- Grimsby, 39 points, -16 GD: Barrow(A), Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 34 points, -19 GD: Newport(H), Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24th - Sutton, 33 points, -26 GD: Salford(A), Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)
24th - Forest Green, 33 points, -27 GD: Stockport(H), Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)

With the run ins, I think Sutton have decent prospects against Salford and Swindon, but after that, not so much. FGR enter the hell part of their schedule against 5 straight top 7 teams. Ouch. Looking really bleak for them. Colchester are still in the shit and starting Friday they have 9 games to play in 30 days. One break of 5 days, the rest 2-4 days. Make or break time for them.

Good Friday Fixtures:

Barrow v Grimsby Town
Colchester United v Newport County
Forest Green Rovers v Stockport County
Salford City v Sutton United

Colchester have a fair chance of winning against Newport, who look set for mid-table. FGR I don't give much hope to, but you never know. Sutton go to inconsistent Salford, anything could happen there. I suspect Grimsby would take a point at Barrow and it feels possible.

All to play for heading into Easter.

 

[クレイグ]

Grimsby with the easiest run-in because they play us.

 

[chipmunx]

Grimsby with the easiest run-in because they play us.

Grimsby should rest their important players on Friday to ensure a win on Easter Monday against Bradford..... Daft as it sounds they could actually do that as a win against Bradford would probably see them safe

 

[Chris FGR]

So we've just lost two (on paper) winnable games withou barely having a shot (xg of 0.02 v Doncaster), are bottom again having played two games more then Colchester and our next five games are against top 7 sides,

Not ideal.

 

[Gunit]

Unless Colchester injure their entire first team in their next fixture I just can’t see them spectacularly crashing enough to keep us interested. Could have done with the 3 point swing from sticking the pen away versus them. Think we have to win away at Salford to give us back an ever so slight glimmer, don’t believe we will.

 

[Greenacres]

If we go into our last two games, against Morecambe and Notts County, and are still in with a chance of staying up after our next five games against the teams at the top...I might believe a miracle can happen. There is a chance that we will already have been relegated by then or the maths are so crazy that it is beyond reasonable probability to stay up.

My fear is that we will face a team, like Stockport next Friday, who will tear us a new one and that will completely destroy our team and its more than fragile level of confidence (to say nothing of the effect it will have on the fans)...I'm not sure what our record defeat is in the Football League, it might be 5-0, but sadly there is a fair chance that it will be beaten over the coming weeks.

 

[dedwardp]

I felt that Forest Green needed to stay ahead of us until after yesterday's games given the run they now have coming up, whilst Sutton's problem is that they only have six games left - we've still got six just at home.

Looking at the fixtures, I think Sutton will do well to get more than seven more points and I can't really see Forest Green going beyond 40 either to be honest. If we can't get six points from the final nine games then we deserve to drop anyway.

 

[GTFCfish]

Grimsby with the easiest run-in because they play us.

Yeah but we never manage to beat you at home (or away) no matter how shit you are.
Donny are the same, they could be an absolute bag of turd but when they come here they always have our number.

 

[JaredSUFC]

At 2:55pm last Saturday I was convinced we were gone, at 5pm yesterday I felt we had a chance.

Still a long way to go yet.

 

[Cloudy]

Grimsby should rest their important players on Friday to ensure a win on Easter Monday against Bradford..... Daft as it sounds they could actually do that as a win against Bradford would probably see them safe

Important players? Look at the table, we simply do not have any!

 

[クレイグ]

Yeah but we never manage to beat you at home (or away) no matter how shit you are.
Donny are the same, they could be an absolute bag of turd but when they come here they always have our number.

The players can't be bothered, mate. It'll be a win and a clean sheet for you.

 

[Kauto Star]

Well it's a good job we've got to 50 points, because I cannot see us getting another one with the spineless shower wearing Bradford City shirts at the moment.

Rupp, Sparks, Gent and Alexander out please or we will genuinely be in a relegation battle next season

 

[Chris FGR]

You even lost to us!

 

[chipmunx]

You even lost to us!

So did we.....

 

[Kauto Star]

You even lost to us!

Exactly, and as soon as you scored in the first minute, there was never a doubt you wouldn't go on to win. As I say, we are a spineless bunch with not an ounce of fight, other than Brad Halliday

 

[BlackHaddock]

Colchester always seem to go on a great run towards the end of each season (or so it appears to me), but I think they might have blown it this time; too many fixtures left in such a short space of time. Choose any two from them, Sutton and FGR; Grimsby are safe I feel.

 

[chipmunx]

Colchester always seem to go on a great run towards the end of each season (or so it appears to me), but I think they might have blown it this time; too many fixtures left in such a short space of time. Choose any two from them, Sutton and FGR; Grimsby are safe I feel.

Grimsby are not safe yet, but will be after Mondays match with Bradford

 

[GTFCfish]

The bottom 4 in here all deserve to go down, all absolutely shite and it’s staggering that 2 of us will actually stay up.
Should we be one of the two that drop then I’m fine with it as we 100% deserve it.