Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

[Essex2Wessex]

We really don't deserve to stay up, and on this occasion the table does not lie. Grim but how it is.

 

[Gunit]

The bottom 4 in here all deserve to go down, all absolutely shite and it’s staggering that 2 of us will actually stay up.
Should we be one of the two that drop then I’m fine with it as we 100% deserve it.

To be honest 2nd half of the season we haven’t played anyone who has looked much better with the obvious exception of Stockport away. Your game was the other we looked 2nd best on the day and probably Mansfield at home but we subsequently drew with them away. It’s starting the season 10 games late that has killed us.

 

[ForzaCounty]

The bottom 4 in here all deserve to go down, all absolutely shite and it’s staggering that 2 of us will actually stay up.
Should we be one of the two that drop then I’m fine with it as we 100% deserve it.

FGR have sewn up one place, at least.

 

[Super_horns]

Sutton producing a great escape?

 

[Gunit]

Sutton producing a great escape?

Too late for us I’m afraid. Neither Grimsby nor Colchester are bad enough to fall apart completely. Just need to enjoy the wins and hope we can build a side for next season.

 

[JJ1990]

52 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 - Expected Survival 23/24
40 -
39 - Grimsby(39)
38 -
37 - Colchester(38)
-----------------------------------------------------
36 - Sutton(41)
35 -
34 -
33 - Forest Green(40)

Sutton trying to make things interesting with their 3rd win in a row. Still looks a long shot that they stay up, but they look desperate to take it until the final day at least. Have FGR thrown in the towel? 3rd straight defeat for them and didn't even manage a shot in the whole game against Stockport. The players there ought to be ashamed of themselves.

Colchester get a massive 3 points against Newport to keep themselves out of the bottom 2. Got some tough fixtures coming up though, so they aren't safe by a long shot. Grimsby are sliding back into trouble, but their schedule eases off now.

21st- Grimsby, 39 points, -18 GD: Bradford(H), Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 37 points, -18 GD: Tranmere(A), Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Sutton, 36 points, -25 GD: Swindon(H), Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)
24th - Forest Green, 33 points, -30 GD: Crewe(A), MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)

The fat lady is warming up for FGR if today is anything to go by. Sutton have given themselves a chance with a poor Swindon side at home next up. They might just run out of games and I don't like their chances against Stockport and MK especially.

Colchester need to keep picking up points, but at what point does the schedule catch up with them? Grimsby are still in trouble, need 4 points out of these next 2 home games you feel with 3 straight away games after that.

Easter Monday Fixtures:

Crewe Alexandra v Forest Green Rovers
Grimsby Town v Bradford City
Sutton United v Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers v Colchester United

Tough fixture for FGR, although Crewe aren't in great form so you never know what might happen there. The other 3 face wildly inconsistent opponents, so predicting those is a mugs game.

 

[dedwardp]

To be honest 2nd half of the season we haven’t played anyone who has looked much better with the obvious exception of Stockport away. Your game was the other we looked 2nd best on the day and probably Mansfield at home but we subsequently drew with them away. It’s starting the season 10 games late that has killed us.

I'd agree with that - one or two teams aside, the rest is all much of a muchness and most games feel like very fine margins. Doesn't feel as though it needs much of a swing for a side to be 21st or 10th to be honest.

I said last week that I thought Sutton and Forest Green would be doing well to get beyond 40 points really given the remaining fixtures, and I had included Sutton beating Salford today in thinking that so I'd stand by that. And on that note, Grimsby are likely safe if they beat Bradford on Monday.

 

[Gunit]

Well I never expected anything from Salford. First time we have scored there I believe!

 

[Stocky]

FGR down. An absolute dog fight for Sutton, Colchester and Grimsby.

Hopefully Grimsby stay up but if they stay up, keep David Artell and celebrate it will be a travesty for their future. The worst manager in the Football League by a distance.

 

[JaredSUFC]

Sutton producing a great escape?

I’m genuinely shocked we’re still in the conversation about staying up. After the Crewe game on the 12th I was 100% convinced we were gone.

The task is still massive but we just need to take it a game at a time to at least keep hope alive

 

[Son of Cod]

Agreed nobody has got particularly easy looking run ins, I think if we can somehow get 4 points from our next 4 then we'll have done well to have weathered the worst of ours before we face a slightly more fogiving run though.

Picked up those 4 points so I guess I can't complain, the nature of the last two defeats has knocked the wind out of our sails a bit but thankfully we've got back to back home matches to teams on the beach now so a real opportunity to take big strides towards safety.

 

[Greenacres]

I’m genuinely shocked we’re still in the conversation about staying up. After the Crewe game on the 12th I was 100% convinced we were gone.

The task is still massive but we just need to take it a game at a time to at least keep hope alive

If it is any comfort to you, having now seen all but two of the clubs apart from ourselves in the division (we still have home games against MKD and Notts County), you are not the worst...that honour, if it can be called that, goes to Colchester who were utter dross when they played here. There is little doubt in my mind now that we will finish in the bottom two, if you can stay ahead of Colchester as well it will be job done.

 

[womble76]

Games in hand will kill sutton. The if colchester can grab one win from them sutton are in massive trouble.

 

[JaredSUFC]

Games in hand will kill sutton. The if colchester can grab one win from them sutton are in massive trouble.

One of those games in hand is Stockport. Another is Grimsby (at this rate we’d benefit from the result of that regardless).

Colchester are now playing two games a week for the rest of the season which could be a negative as much as a positive

 

[Greenacres]

One of those games in hand is Stockport. Another is Grimsby (at this rate we’d benefit from the result of that regardless).

Colchester are now playing two games a week for the rest of the season which could be a negative as much as a positive

The only way I can see for Colchester to get out of this is if they park the bus massively in their remaining games and grind out a point a game...that might be just enough to finish above our two teams, but it is a very risky tactic.

 

[JaredSUFC]

The only way I can see for Colchester to get out of this is if they park the bus massively in their remaining games and grind out a point a game...that might be just enough to finish above our two teams, but it is a very risk tactic.

Colchester have the massive advantage of being 1 point ahead of us and 4 ahead of you.

For Sutton that means maintaining our current form. We’ve 5 games left, in our last 5 we’ve gained 10 points, out scoring points wise Colchester significantly. We’re not in a position to drop that level

 

[Alfie]

deleted

 

[Gunit]

Gained in what sense? Not sure Grimsby are well out of it 3 points off the drop zone. But a win Monday and they would be and I don’t think they’ll drop. Colchester have 3 games in hand but a tough little run now. I don’t put our survival hopes at more than 5-10% but it was 0% a couple of weeks back so I’ll take that. Monday is our last hope to turn it into a scrap, we need a win and losses elsewhere. If Colchester and Grimsby get wins it’s over for us.

 

[Alfie]

Gained in what sense? Not sure Grimsby are well out of it 3 points off the drop zone. But a win Monday and they would be and I don’t think they’ll drop. Colchester have 3 games in hand but a tough little run now. I don’t put our survival hopes at more than 5-10% but it was 0% a couple of weeks back so I’ll take that. Monday is our last hope to turn it into a scrap, we need a win and losses elsewhere. If Colchester and Grimsby get wins it’s over for us.

Apologies. Error on my part.
Table gave incorrect info and I didn't put on thinking cap b4 posting.

Updated info for March:

Colchester - 5 pts
FGR - 6 pts
Grimsby - 9 pts
Sutton - 10 pts

On that form FGR & Colchester are doomed.

 

[SteampunkDon2]

I think you are looking at 43 - 45 points to stay up.

 

[PaulHaddock]

If we go down from our current position then we absolutely deserve it. I’m not as worried as I probably should be, as despite losing the last two, they were both against the most inform teams in the league. Literally two wins out of seven needed, if we can’t get one from home games against Bradford, Newport or Swindon then fuck me

 

[Alfie]

If we go down from our current position then we absolutely deserve it. I’m not as worried as I probably should be, as despite losing the last two, they were both against the most inform teams in the league. Literally two wins out of seven needed, if we can’t get one from home games against Bradford, Newport or Swindon then fuck me

Prefer not to while there are dogs roaming the street

 

[クレイグ]

Prefer not to while there are dogs roaming the street

Wrong account, Carver?

 

[GTFCfish]

People saying ‘Ah yeah if we beat Bradford we’re as good as safe’ but the thing is, we never fucking beat them.
I’ve just checked and the last time we beat them was in 1998, since then we’ve played them 20 times and not won once, some games you just know you’re not gonna win and this is one of them.
Doesn’t matter if they are on the beach or not, we’re not beating them.

 

[クレイグ]

People saying ‘Ah yeah if we beat Bradford we’re as good as safe’ but the thing is, we never fucking beat them.
I’ve just checked and the last time we beat them was in 1998, since then we’ve played them 20 times and not won once, some games you just know you’re not gonna win and this is one of them.
Doesn’t matter if they are on the beach or not, we’re not beating them.

Artell still fuming after Sparks said to him "Cheers for applying for the role, Mr Artell, but I think Graham Alexander is much better than you."

Surely an added incentive there, Fish.

1-0 Grimsby.

 

[Luke Imp]

Grimsby aren't going down with two games in hand, their fixtures and those of the other sides. That five game run they had picking up points saw them safe.

 

[Casey]

Colchester have the massive advantage of being 1 point ahead of us and 4 ahead of you.

For Sutton that means maintaining our current form. We’ve 5 games left, in our last 5 we’ve gained 10 points, out scoring points wise Colchester significantly. We’re not in a position to drop that level

There's that bloody hope Jared!

We've got to play the bottom three of the bottom four. We have a bad record against sides at the bottom of the table. Last time Grimsby were relegated they did the double over us. Plus we have to blow our chances of getting into the play offs.

We escaped last season and I never want to go through that again. Good luck to all of you.

Casey

 

[chief]

FGR down is a great result, though they'll surely bounce back first time of asking.

I feel Sutton have been a welcome addition to the EFL and it'll be a shame to see them go down, but not at the expense of a brother. Sutton will be fine if they go down too but I do fear for Colchester if they drop.

 

[Chris FGR]

Not sure we'll bounce back at the first time of asking. We're in a bit of a mess behind the scenes from what I've heard. Going to be a chaotic summer (again).

If Cotterill walks which is possible then people will turn on Vince big time. The way we've been run over the last 2 years has been a joke.

 

[Greenacres]

Not sure we'll bounce back at the first time of asking. We're in a bit of a mess behind the scenes from what I've heard. Going to be a chaotic summer (again).

If Cotterill walks which is possible then people will turn on Vince big time. The way we've been run over the last 2 years has been a joke.

I'm amazed the fans haven't already turned on the owner...most clubs that have been run as poorly as ours over the last two years would have had fans protesting and calling for the board to be sacked...although, in our case, it is more of a dictator than a board.