Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

[BarraMatt]

Dale is in the middle of another divorce too, by all accounts from my local contacts on my jaunt home just, which will explain some of the distraction.

As part of the settlement Vince is getting the bottom racks of the fridge.

 

[Who Needs Mourinho]

every team can say that about at least 1 big result. We can say it about Stockport away and the Knoyle non red card that could have got us 3 more points - but as the saying goes things do tend to even up over a season.... so stop moaning and win a couple of games....

And we could say it about the offside goal you scored in the return fixture

 

[Luke Imp]

Dale is in the middle of another divorce too, by all accounts from my local contacts on my jaunt home just, which will explain some of the distraction.

There was an article on Vince in the Financial Times last week because he keeps donating money to political parties and not telling his wife, so he's now spending the divorce settlement money not all his own.

 

[JJ1990]

52 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 - Expected Survival 23/24
42 -
41 -
40 - Grimsby(40)
39 - Sutton(42)
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38 - Colchester(39)
37 -
36 - Forest Green(41)

Well, what looked like a pretty dull relegation fight has now gotten really interesting. FGR get a fantastic away win at Crewe, which they fully deserved. Given themselves a chance, although against less hopeless promotion chasers, they might find it trickier. Colchester drop into the bottom 2 after yet another 1-1. Their next 2 look horrible and they are about to go into their Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday schedule, which could break them.

Sutton claw themselves out of the bottom 2. Giving themselves a chance to be fair. Grimsby are sliding back down, which will be concerning for them. Winnable games passing them by and only 2 home games left. Going to need some miracles on the road it seems.

21st- Grimsby, 40 points, -18 GD: Newport(H), Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Sutton, 39 points, -23 GD: Stockport(H), Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Colchester, 38 points, -18 GD: Wrexham(H), Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H)
24th - Forest Green, 36 points, -27 GD: MK Dons(H), Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)

One thing that stands out is just how many tough games each side has got. Very few of these teams play each other, it's almost all against mid-table teams or higher.

Saturday 6th April
Colchester United v Wrexham
Forest Green Rovers v Milton Keynes Dons
Grimsby Town v Newport County
Sutton United v Stockport County

Interesting that all 4 teams are at home this week and all 3 of them are playing promotion contenders. Grimsby have the easiest game it seems, given Newport seem to be running out of steam. Massive chance for them to pull themselves clear of the others. Can any of the other 3 pull off shocks though? FGR might have a chance given how poor MK Dons are away from home.

 

[AdamStag]

Fuck that’s a run in for FG, having just gone to crewe they’ve then MK at home before away games at mansfield next tuesday and wrexham the saturday.

Ouch.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

We have only ourselves to blame blowing all the six pointers, including setting Sutton off on their great run IIRC.

 

[Gunit]

Reckon the safety mark will be at least 46 points, which is a tough ask for us. Beat Stockport and we’d have a chance. If it’s more than 46 we’re going to have to find 3 very good wins, almost impossible. Grimsby have a great chance to almost put it to bed this Saturday against a stuttering Newport. If they don’t win there that may give us some hope, can see them getting it done though. You’d expect Colchester to muster at least a couple of home wins (Crewe and Grimsby decent opportunities) from that lot - Wrexham is also a great chance. In summary we’re still down but at least have kept things alive.

Difficult to see FGR getting more than 42/43 points.

 

[Throbber_for_Dunk]

All four teams having a different amount to play does feel very non-league. Fittingly for the unlucky two, I guess.

Those run ins are something else though for the chasers, brutal. But stranger things have happened at this collywobbles stage of the year.

 

[pontoonlew]

Still think it looks a lot worse for us than it currently is, the odds reflect that too at 11/2.

We've got 1 pt plus GD on Sutton with 50% more games to play, you’d like to think that probably equates to 5/6 more points.

There’s every chance it’s all over by Tuesday, but I said that about the Easter games. Lose Saturday & Tuesday and we’re in serious bother.

 

[Carver]

It's time Colchester f*cked off to the non-league. They have been dodging it for a few seasons now and they won't be missed will they?

 

[GTFCfish]

Still think it looks a lot worse for us than it currently is, the odds reflect that too at 11/2.

We've got 1 pt plus GD on Sutton with 50% more games to play, you’d like to think that probably equates to 5/6 more points.

There’s every chance it’s all over by Tuesday, but I said that about the Easter games. Lose Saturday & Tuesday and we’re in serious bother.

Yeah but my worry is that the extra games don’t count for a lot when we can’t beat teams at home that are already on the beach like Bradford were, for me Newport is absolutely must win because even though Swindon are shite they always come here and win and away we’ve been a lot more solid but we still never win, just get a few scratchy draws. Fail to beat Newport and we are massively in the shit IMO.

 

[dedwardp]

One more win will probably do Grimsby, and you couldn't ask for much better home games than Newport and Swindon.

 

[TheDon]

Have to agree with you, we are a pushover at the moment. The win over Notts was a fluke as they gave us both goals.

 

[The_Viking_Magpie]

Grimsby will be absolutely fine. Pretty awful season but fine.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

I think Grimby are pretty much safe. Next season I do fear for Swindon though, unless they get the off-pitch matters sorted.

 

[PaulHaddock]

I think 46 is the guaranteed safety, as I can’t see Sutton getting more than that. Unfortunately, I say the same for us. It’s fine saying Swindon and Newport as easy games but so was Bradford, and we barely created a thing.

 

[Gunit]

Down to 2 from 3, likely FGR and one of Colchester/Sutton. And most likely FGR and Sutton. We were definitely down whilst Colchester were leading. Need Stockport to get the job done Tuesday there and whittle games in hand down without points.

 

[The Jovial Forester]

Mansfield obviously imploded, so there's three points for us there

 

[GTFCfish]

Phew badly needed those set of results, if we manage to go down from here then it will be a bottle job on a level with the one Mansfield are currently trying to achieve in the promotion race.

 

[Gunit]

Having Newport at home at this stage is cheating. Finally playing to their predicted struggle.

 

[Robshep]

I have often wondered whether we are in a planned decline, a bit like when you decommission something like a nuclear power station, gradually running it down to a point where it can be safely turned off...which makes the potential sale of TNL even more worrying...didn't the same thing happen to Brighton a few years ago, they ended up playing home games in Gillingham for a couple of seasons before a saviour took them home again.

Dale made a bold statement about getting the club to the Championship and probably realised at an early stage last season that it was a completely crazy idea, when he saw the teams we would be up against for promotion. That league is generally home to larger teams with significantly larger resources than ourselves, grounds and supporter base to match...even the most deluded of our fans will come up with Burton being an example of a small team that made it to the Championship, yes they were well run and had a decent first team manager, but how long did they last there?

But do you know what really hacks me off about Dale, his assumption that everyone following the team has the same views and values as him...no we bloody well don't, Hamas are fucking terrorists, they are not freedom fighters!

Edit, I have removed some of the bad language, although this doesn't alter my views of Dale or what Hamas did last October.

33,000 dead Gazans, mostly women and children ok by you is it?

 

[Chris FGR]

Mansfield & Wrexham away up next. Need at least 3 points or its curtains....

It's curtains.

 

[Master D]

FGR have been fixture'd out of it.

 

[JaredSUFC]

Having Newport at home at this stage is cheating. Finally playing to their predicted struggle.

Newport remind me of us last season. This isn’t a compliment.

Got to feel Grimsby are all but safe, although they may not seal it until they play Colchester.

As for the rest of us, pretty much as expected. I’ve never been so pleased to see Paul Mullen on the scoresheet

 

[GTFCfish]

Having Newport at home at this stage is cheating. Finally playing to their predicted struggle.

They were lucky it was only 1-0 which is why I was certain they were gonna equalise in injury time, thankfully though they created fuck all.

 

[dedwardp]

We should have had at least another trademark 1-1 today after a decent first hour, but shot ourselves in the foot with two really badly defended goals. If we play like we did in the most part then we'll get the win or two that we'll need easily enough I would think, but also largely expect to be sat here in seven days' time with two more games ticked off and no more points to be honest.

 

[Gunit]

We should have had at least another trademark 1-1 today after a decent first hour, but shot ourselves in the foot with two really badly defended goals. If we play like we did in the most part then we'll get the win or two that we'll need easily enough I would think, but also largely expect to be sat here in seven days' time with two more games ticked off and no more points to be honest.

If you lose those 2 and we can somehow turn over Harrogate you’d be under a lot of pressure. Has to be our hope/aim, we simply have to win that one.

 

[dedwardp]

If you lose those 2 and we can somehow turn over Harrogate you’d be under a lot of pressure. Has to be our hope/aim, we simply have to win that one.

Harrogate seem so unpredictable, too. Really tough one to call that next week.

 

[CTFC - Devils]

We should have had at least another trademark 1-1 today after a decent first hour, but shot ourselves in the foot with two really badly defended goals. If we play like we did in the most part then we'll get the win or two that we'll need easily enough I would think, but also largely expect to be sat here in seven days' time with two more games ticked off and no more points to be honest.

I have a feeling you’ll take something from us next Saturday. Another £2 sell out means we will not turn up.

 

[Gunit]

I have a feeling you’ll take something from us next Saturday. Another £2 sell out means we will not turn up.

No, you should be winning comfortably and then resting players from then on for the play offs. Keep your closest game, makes sense and you know it.