The playoff thread

[Shrimpurh]

Danny Cowley is god!

 

[GuiseleySteve]

Isn't it a case of having until the end of March the following year to complete any required improvements just the same as moving from National North/South to National?

 

[rudebwoyben]

I'd imagine that Braintree would be given a bit of time to bring their ground up to standard (or it could speed up their move to a new ground, which has long been mooted). After all, Accy and Daggers were given time.

Oi, don't knock Ricky Modeste. He's a hero to us as well!
Deverdics is a tidy player with good technique, unfortunately mis-used by Hendon when he was with us in League 2 back in 09/10.

 

[Davidimp]

FL grounds are meant to have a minimum capacity of 5000 and have 1000 seats.
I doubt Braintree have that.

 

[LeWhites]

Oi, don't knock Ricky Modeste. He's a hero to us as well!
Deverdics is a tidy player with good technique, unfortunately mis-used by Hendon when he was with us in League 2 back in 09/10.

Don't a few Barnet supporters sponsor Modeste's shirt this season?

 

[rudebwoyben]

Don't a few Barnet supporters sponsor Modeste's shirt this season?

They do indeed!

 

[rudebwoyben]

FL grounds are meant to have a minimum capacity of 5000 and have 1000 seats.
I doubt Braintree have that.

That stand at Braintree only has about 400 seats in it!

 

[GuiseleySteve]

Has to be a minimum of 500 seats to gain entry to the National league

 

[joethegill]

553 seats in a total capacity of 4151 apparently.

I reckon the whole 'minimum seating' thing is a load of bollocks anyway. Should have some ground regulations of course, but make it more about whether or not there's enough toilets and exits than worrying about whether someone can stand or sit. Let's be honest, 553 seats is plenty for Braintree Town.

 

[Shrimpurh]

Come on the Braintree!

 

[Mark kavanagh]

Its awful that a club who deserve promotion on the pitch can be denied by some pen pusher at lancaster gate, good luck to dover or braintree if they get up on merit!

Whenever i go the test match old trafford has a temporary stand constructed to the left of the point it holds about 1000 speccies.... Couldnt footy clubs set one up for a full season? Im sure stevenage had one against newcastle a few years ago!

 

[Luke Imp]

Our local paper has asked the reporters of the current top 10 who they think will get in there (once you've navigated through ads!).

http://www.lincolnshireecho.co.uk/P...vals-verdict/story-28893379-detail/story.html

 

[Mark kavanagh]

Our local paper has asked the reporters of the current top 10 who they think will get in there (once you've navigated through ads!).

http://www.lincolnshireecho.co.uk/P...vals-verdict/story-28893379-detail/story.html

Your paper is a lot better then the liverpool echo, their take on it would be which celebrity scouser supports which team, followed by a mention that the beatles were from liverpool ( cos the city council doesnt mention it much, not), and if their really on form what club coleen and wayne were at and what colour y fronts stevie g was seen buying! I think i will move to lincolnshire

 

[LeWhites]

Your paper is a lot better then the liverpool echo, their take on it would be which celebrity scouser supports which team, followed by a mention that the beatles were from liverpool ( cos the city council doesnt mention it much, not), and if their really on form what club coleen and wayne were at and what colour y fronts stevie g was seen buying! I think i will move to lincolnshire

Much better and much less advert-filled than ours too.

 

[Railway Blue]

Dover aren't even the most bankrolled Kent team in NL, when you consider Ebbsfleet and Maidstone just down the road.

Maidstone aren't bankrolled, just get 2,000+ at every home game.

 

[LeWhites]

Maidstone aren't bankrolled, just get 2,000+ at every home game.

Who paid for the brand new stadium and 3G pitch then?

 

[FrankTheTank]

I might be biased but at the minute Padraig Amond is head and shoulders above any other striker in the NL. Not only for his goals but for his overall play over 90 minutes almost every game.

To be honest i was expecting more from Amond last Friday. He had that one chance in the 2nd half when he lost his man and pealed back to the edge of the box but put it over the bar. Other than that was pretty well marshalled. Hoban looked more dangerous.

 

[slaphead]

Isn't it a case of having until the end of March the following year to complete any required improvements just the same as moving from National North/South to National?

Nope, the FL will insist on stuff being in place before they take their place. There is a 3 year exemption on things like seats, but next season the FL regulations on floodlighting change, you need a much higher standard of lights to get in than now. Ours for example, would fail, even though they are fit to hold Champions League games, the can't match the standards required to play in League Two. Ridiculous. There's loads of other things that will be essential for a Safety Certificate too, segregation, barriers crush tested etc. The seating will be the least of their worries.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Our home form and this Saturdays game will decide the playoffs for us. Away games at Kidderminster and Torquay could just seal a spot early.

 

[joethegill]

Maidstone aren't bankrolled, just get 2,000+ at every home game.

They really are. Their crowds are good so good luck to them, but they've definitely spent more than a few quid to get where they are.

 

[les.gtfc]

To be honest i was expecting more from Amond last Friday. He had that one chance in the 2nd half when he lost his man and pealed back to the edge of the box but put it over the bar. Other than that was pretty well marshalled. Hoban looked more dangerous.

True, he didn't have his best of games on Friday night and should really have buried that chance he put over the bar which would have made it 2-0. A rare offday for him but he still got through a lot of work.

 

[White Army]

Well after a set of games, with just Braintree not playing, the table looks like this:

4th. Tranmere 62 points 38 games
5th. Braintree 61 points 35 games
----------------------------------------------------
6th. Wrexham 59 points 37 games
7th. Dover 59 points 35 games
8th. Eastleigh 59 points 36 games
9th. Gateshead 58 points 37 games
10th. Lincoln 56 points 37 games

So a Tranmere Dover stalemate leaves them two pretty much as they were, and good wins for Wrexham and Eastleigh puts them in good positions. Gateshead and Lincoln probably had the tougher looking games of the weekend and dropping points was no big surprise. More points dropped though and Lincoln could soon be out the picture.

Tuesdays matches:
Braintree vs Gateshead
Dover vs Lincoln
Eastleigh vs Bromley

So three big games on Tuesday, Lincoln probably need a win at Dover to stay in the hunt. Dover and Braintree wins would be bad for everyone really with their games in hand. If Bromley manage to win at Eastleigh then they could put themselves in with a chance of making the playoffs which seemed unimaginable 10 games ago.

 

[1884 Belmont]

WARNING - LONG READ!
I posted this on our forum, hopefully someone here finds it interesting:

SO, after yesterday's result we have 8 games remaining. Others around us have a/a few game(s) in hand, but if we ignore the top 3 who are probably out of sight and assured of a playoff spot, there are looking like 8 sides fighting for 2 spots: Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham, Dover, Eastleigh, Gateshead, Lincoln and Bromley. Anyone further down than Bromley would still be at least 9 points behind us even after winning any games in hand and with 8 games to play, I would think that would be too much to make up.

Looking at these 8 sides, there are obvious 'holders', 'favourites' and 'outsiders'. Currently in 4th and 5th, Tranmere and Braintree are the current 'holders' - the teams in possession of the last 2 spots and the teams all the others are looking to overtake. There are plenty of ways to look at who the favourites and outsiders are, but to me the most important are Points/Goals Scored/Goals Conceded per game, Form and Difficulty of remaining games. So, let's look at them each in turn and give each side a ‘Contender Rank’ from 1 to 8 (1 being the best and 8 being the worst).

Current Points:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 62 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 3
5th: Braintree Town = 61 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 4
7th: Dover = 59 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 58 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 6
10th: Lincoln = 56 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 7
11th: Bromley = 54 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 8

So, Braintree and Dover have the largest points per game average. Of the 4 sides on 1.6 points per game, Tranmere have the most already on the board, which could be critical for the run in. Bromley and Lincoln have the lowest points per game average and lowest points on the board, so they’ve got the most work to do.

Goals scored:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 50 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
5th: Braintree Town= 41 Goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8
6th: Wrexham = 61 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
7th: Dover Athletic = 59 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 54 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 48 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 57 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
11th: Bromley = 60 Goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3

Going forwards, Wrexham and Dover have the most potent attacks with 1.7 goals per game. Tranmere, Gateshead and Braintree are all putting a lot of pressure on their defences to keep them in the games as they don’t score as often as the rest of the contenders.

Goals conceded:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 37 goals (1.0 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
5th: Braintree Town = 26 goals (0.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 44 goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3
7th: Dover Athletic = 45 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
8th: Eastleigh = 48 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
9th: Gateshead = 55 goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 47 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
11th: Bromley = 58 goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8

At the back, Braintree and Tranmere are the hardest sides to break down and are the only sides not to concede over 1 goal per game. Their respective attacks put a lot of pressure on their defences, but in fairness they live up to that expectation. Bromley, Gateshead and Eastleigh are the easiest to break down and are likely to need a lot of goals to win games, which could hinder them.

Ignoring the top 3, who are gone, going on points per game/goals per game/goals conceded per game until the end of the season, it would look like this:

-------TEAM--PTS--GF--GA--GD
4th Braintree--80--55--32--+23
5th Dover --78--78--60--+18
-------------------------------------
6th Tranmere --75--60--46--+14
7th Eastleigh -- 75--69--60--+9
8th Wrexham -- 73--78--55--+23
9th Gateshead -- 72--60--69---9
10th Lincoln --70--69--60--+9
11th Bromley --67--74--74--0

So, in short, it's looking like we won't make it on the points/goals scored/goals conceded per game. However, it's looking very tight and a bad defeat or a couple of draws for Dover or Braintree could put it back in our hands. But how likely are those results? Let’s take a look at the current Form and remaining fixtures of the 8 sides and give them a Contender Rank accordingly.

Form:
The number of games remaining fluctuates from between 8 and 11, so let’s take the form of the 8 sides across the previous 10 for a rough comparison.
4th Tranmere W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 2
5th Braintree W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 1
6th Wrexham W5D4L1 Pts=19/30 Contender Rank: 3
7th Dover W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 5
8th Eastleigh W3D2L5 Pts=11/30 Contender Rank 8
9th Gateshead W5D2L3 Pts=17/30 Contender Rank: 4
10th Lincoln W4D3L3 Pts=15/30 Contender Rank 7
11th Bromley W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 6

‘Holders’ Tranmere and Braintree are sitting top of the form table having both taken 21 points from the last 30 available. (Braintree are ranked 1 due to a better goal difference). Eastleigh, Lincoln and Bromley come into the run in with the worst 10 game form of the 8 sides and will need to improve significantly if they are to be successful.

Remaining Opposition:
We know how the sides are faring going into the run in, but who do they all play? I will look at the league position of the sides left to play for each of the contenders, with a lower average being deemed ‘harder’ than a higher average (although sides at the bottom can be fighting for their lives, the teams are at the bottom for a reason and for the purposes of this analysis will be deemed more desirable opponents than sides further up the table).
4th Tranmere: 2nd, 10th, 24th, 23rd, 22nd, 6th, 8th, 3rd. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 4
5th Braintree: 9th, 1st, 11th, 15th, 12th, 14th, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 6th, 21st. Average: 9th. Contender Rank: 7.
6th Wrexham (appears to be a game yet to be rearranged): 16th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 4th, 5th, 14th. Average:7th. Contender Rank: 8.
7th Dover: 10th, 18th, 22nd, 19th, 20th, 21st, 6th, 12th, 3rd, 24th, 2nd. Average: 14th. Contender Rank: 2.
8th Eastleigh: 11th, 20th, 23rd, 22nd, 18th, 3rd, 14th, 21st, 4th, 13th. Average: 15th. Contender Rank: 1.
9th Gateshead: 5th, 23rd, 12th, 10th, 22nd, 13th, 5th, 11th, 16th. Average: 13th. Contender Rank: 3.
10th Lincoln: 7th, 24th, 4th, 9th, 11th, 16th, 17th, 13th, 1st. Average: 11th. Contender Rank: 6
11th Bromley: 8th, 14th, 5th, 2nd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 9th, 15th. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 5

As you can see, Eastleigh and Dover have the most desirable fixtures remaining, with opposition averaging a mid-table 15th and 14th respectively. On the flipside, Wrexham and Braintree would need some remarkable form to beat teams with an average position approaching the playoffs until the end of the season.
Overall, there are various different factors that will go into deciding which sides get into the playoffs and which sides fall short. By combining the total ‘Contender Ranks’ of the 8 sides, we get the following totals (as in Golf, lowest number is best):
4th Tranmere: Overall Contender Rank = 17.
5th Braintree: Overall Contender Rank = 18
6th Wrexham: Overall Contender Rank = 19
7th Dover: Overall Contender Rank = 15
8th Eastleigh: Overall Contender Rank = 25
9th Gateshead: Overall Contender Rank = 27
10th Lincoln: Overall Contender Rank = 29
11th Bromley: Overall Contender Rank = 30.

In conclusion, then, it would appear that Dover and Tranmere are the current favourites to make it into the playoffs and the 0-0 draw between the two yesterday suggests there is little between the sides. Braintree and Wrexham aren’t far behind and both have an excellent chance of making it should one of the 2 favourites falter. Eastleigh and Gateshead have a chance, but it would need quite a swing in form for them to do so and their results against the other contenders would probably be considered ‘must win’. Lincoln and Bromley have a mathematical chance, but it doesn’t stretch much further than that and they would need to win almost, if not all, their remaining games to achieve this.
Predicted final positions:
4th Dover
5th Tranmere
-----------------------
6th Braintree
7th Wrexham
8th Eastleigh
9th Gateshead
10th Lincoln
11th Bromley.
Therefore, yes, we will make the playoffs (hopefully).

Thanks for taking the time to read it.

 

[Mark kavanagh]

Thanks for taking the trouble to research and type it!!

 

[CTFCfan99]

Great analysis!

 

[EnglishRed]

That analysis pretty much goes with what I thought, only with a basis in fact rather than gut opinion.

As you point out we have a really tough run in. Playing each of the current top 5 and Dover. That said if we start winning those games it's in our hands! I suspect we won't though. There are better teams than us already occupying the play off spots and 7th/8th seems about right for us.

 

[Mr Scooty]

I'm not sure our goals scored and conceded stats are that relevant going into the final 9 games. We've tightened up our defence considerably recently, but are nothing like as good going forward as we were in the first third of the season. Thankfully, I think Mills has realised Beck is never going to score for us in a million years, so maybe Gray will come back after his spider bite and find some of his early season form. Same goes for York who has been quite threatening at times this season, but struggled as soon as the rains came down. I suppose that now we've got better pitches to play on there's a chance that better, more threatening, football may return, even without Dom Vose in the side.

 

[Imp in Branston]

I think our slim play off chance will be a lot clearer after tomorrow nights game at Diver, sorry Dover!

 

[Luke Imp]

Good work 1884.

Pretty much says what most Imps know, and that's that we're a decent at going forward and defending but not quite good enough at either for a PO position. Good enough for a top 10 but lack that little bit of quality and probably squad depth/options to be much more. Hopefully we can address that in the summer.

That said we've been quite consistent for most of the season. It was the consistently losing and the odd draw over December and January, which has killed us because we've ticked along quite nicely for 75% of the season so far.

I've never really believed we've been in with a shout. It's nice to be within touching distance still, but you can't go missing for 20% of the season i.e. our winless run, and expect a PO place.

 

[CrazyImp]

With the slightly increased budget, the next two seasons will be the make or break ones.
It's gone now.

I don't normally believe in one variable entirely for the reasoning for a placing, but I'd like to place on record my thanks to Liam Hearn for wrecking our play-offs chances. We'd have been fine otherwise. #ColossalPhallus