The proper relegation thread.

[SELatic]

Who do we reckon the favourites for the drop are now then?

Feels impossible to call:

Barrow - points on the board over Stevenage but much more difficult run-in. Game in hand on Latics and similar run-in.

Latics - points on the board over Stevenage but much tougher run in and played one more game than both Stevenage and Barrow

Stevenage - behind on points but game in hand on Latics and much easier run-in than both

I think if I absolutely had to say, it’s possibly Barrow who look favourites at this stage but things can change so quickly - I thought we were doomed before the week just gone.

 

[Chief Rocka]

Toss up between Oldham and Barra purely based on both their run ins, Stevenage have three of the easy beats in a row, granted they also qualify as an easy beat, they've gotta be looking at winning at least two of them to stand a chance.

 

[BarraMatt]

Think it's us at the moment, if we don't get something at Crawley on Saturday that's us done for. Saturday was the best we'd been for ages, especially first half, yet still got beat and it probably could've been 3 or 4 for Vale in that second half to be honest. It's the Crawley and Sutton games which will make or break us I think, the latter I'm hoping may run out of steam with some tough fixtures after their Papa John's exploits.

Stevenage's run in is far more favourable than ours and Oldham's, but hopefully Colchester and Rochdale can go into those games with a mindset of making themselves safe once and for all if it wasn't in any doubt already, and Scunny have an outlook of dragging someone down with them.

Looked at the Stevenage and Oldham highlights on YouTube, two mins granted, but seemed like Stevenage had most of the play, so the fact that they lost it will hopefully mean it's a big blow to them. They still need to be four points better off than us unless we get some serious hammerings but we are still in the realms of hoping someone is worse than us as I have no confidence we can get enough points ourselves.

 

[Conker]

Please let it be Stevenage and Evans.

 

[Conker]

We did warn you about Phil Brown, Barrow

I understood them getting rid of Cooper but replacing him with Phil Brown is ridiculous. Shocking decision making at that club.

 

[dedwardp]

Toss up between Oldham and Barra purely based on both their run ins, Stevenage have three of the easy beats in a row, granted they also qualify as an easy beat, they've gotta be looking at winning at least two of them to stand a chance.

Exactly - I'm now expecting us to make it three wins in a row on Saturday to be honest.

 

[Trapdoor]

Stevenage on 56.6% looking most likely to join Scunthorpe now.

 

[Myblueheaven04]

Who do we reckon the favourites for the drop are now then?

Feels impossible to call:

Barrow - points on the board over Stevenage but much more difficult run-in. Game in hand on Latics and similar run-in.

Latics - points on the board over Stevenage but much tougher run in and played one more game than both Stevenage and Barrow

Stevenage - behind on points but game in hand on Latics and much easier run-in than both

I think if I absolutely had to say, it’s possibly Barrow who look favourites at this stage but things can change so quickly - I thought we were doomed before the week just gone.

I think the players we have back from injuries and suspensions have made a difference the last two games which we have won. The 5 or 6 we lost were whilst we had these players missing.
We are still a very poor team but with Luamba, Hart and Missilou back we will be much more like the team when Shez first came back, this meaning we will be very solid at the back with a decent young handful of a striker up top.
I believe we will have enough and we will have good numbers of fans pushing us over the line.
Like to see Stevenage go but couldnt really care less as long as its not us.

 

[denzel ecfc]

View attachment 17009

Stevenage on 56.6% looking most likely to join Scunthorpe now.

Bradford are now more likely to be relegated than Carlisle. What a time to be alive.

 

[WilsdenBantam]

Bradford are now more likely to be relegated than Carlisle. What a time to be alive.

I’m panicking now, knowing how much of a certainty Carlisle are for the drop it’s a big worry. Suppose it’ll come down to the last game of the season to stay up between us.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Oldham have some fight in them, that should get them over the line, they may have hard games but won’t roll over in them games and may grab points.

Barrow and Stevenage both look the suu in des unlikely to drag wins to get safe, but it’s not too easy as both as such have new managers who could yet drag more out their teams.

Games in hand and good run ins can sometimes be worthless. I remember Shrewsbury back in 2003 were quite confident at this stage, had many games in hand, most were home games vs the bottom sides…….they lost the lot and went down.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Oldham have some fight in them, that should get them over the line, they may have hard games but won’t roll over in them games and may grab points.

Barrow and Stevenage both look the suu in des unlikely to drag wins to get safe, but it’s not too easy as both as such have new managers who could yet drag more out their teams.

Games in hand and good run ins can sometimes be worthless. I remember Shrewsbury back in 2003 were quite confident at this stage, had many games in hand, most were hole games vs the bottom sides…….they lost the lot and went down.

We won our last three games in 2002/3, and still went down!

 

[GEORGE]

I would certainly say it is better to have points on the board than games in hand. With regards to the teams down the bottom I would say next to Scunny Stevenage have been the worst side we have played. And surely after waiting 48 years Barrow arn't going to give up their FL place that easy.

 

[Shrimper92]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510891531699474435

 

[Monkey Tennis]

Stevenage were dire at our place and have been below us in the form table for months. Yet I'm still not confident we can pick up more than a couple of points in the run-in.

 

[BarraMatt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510891531699474435

Pretty good content. Farman's antics are irritating even when he plays for your own team, wouldn't be so bad if he was actually a decent keeper.

 

[hellogregory]

I'd say Oldham at the moment. Their run in is tough, as is Barrow's but Barrow have an extra game to play, plus a better goal difference. Stevenage are obviously in the worst form having not won since January and are in the dreaded position, but they have a few games against teams that will have downed tools within the next few weeks. That might just give them an opportunity to pick up a few results.


Still think Carlisle need another win just to be sure.

 

[FGR Stroud]

I'd say Oldham at the moment. Their run in is tough, as is Barrow's but Barrow have an extra game to play, plus a better goal difference. Stevenage are obviously in the worst form having not won since January and are in the dreaded position, but they have a few games against teams that will have downed tools within the next few weeks. That might just give them an opportunity to pick up a few results.


Still think Carlisle need another win just to be sure.

Games in hand for teams near bottom of table do not usually convert to maximum points on the table.
Even checking forthcoming games is fraught with problems. Teams fighting for survival tend to raise their game against another team in danger of relegation. And those safe from relegation or promotion can play relaxed and better football than earlier in season.

Bet365 Relegation odds: -

 

[BarraMatt]

Carlisle worth a tenner I reckon.

 

[FGR Stroud]

Realistically relegation will be from two teams in the bottom four: - Scunthorpe, Stevenage, Oldham or Barrow.
Scunthorpe are virtually doomed so one place from other three teams.
Stevenage with 3 pts less than team above them with inferior GD look most likely to go down.
However until mathematically confirmed supporters of all four clubs must keep the faith.

Remaining games left to play

 

[Shrimper92]

Games in hand for teams near bottom of table do not usually convert to maximum points on the table.
Even checking forthcoming games is fraught with problems. Teams fighting for survival tend to raise their game against another team in danger of relegation. And those safe from relegation or promotion can play relaxed and better football than earlier in season.

Bet365 Relegation odds: -
View attachment 17013

Can't believe the worst team in the league are at such high odds

 

[AdamStag]

View attachment 17009

Stevenage on 56.6% looking most likely to join Scunthorpe now.

looking good for scunthorpe

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

I’d say next 3 games decides it for Stevenage their last 4 are not easy because Simpson I don’t think will turn Carlisle into an end of season nothing side, he’s wanting as high as he can finish

Barrow fixtures do look horrific mind

 

[Essex2Wessex]

Hoping it will be Stevenage, fearing it will be Barrow.

After all those years in non-league, they deserve a chance to stick around and make their mark a bit more....whether bad luck (and a difficult location geographically) or bad decisions (especially over managerial appointments) have been their bigger problem I'm not sure

Expecting Oldham to make the great escape, the team itself seems a cut above those around them in the league, but who knows frankly? So long as their owner fucks off whatever happens

 

[BarraMatt]

Hoping it will be Stevenage, fearing it will be Barrow.

After all those years in non-league, they deserve a chance to stick around and make their mark a bit more....whether bad luck (and a difficult location geographically) or bad decisions (especially over managerial appointments) have been their bigger problem I'm not sure

Expecting Oldham to make the great escape, the team itself seems a cut above those around them in the league, but who knows frankly? So long as their owner fucks off whatever happens

Definitely bad decision making, not sure what Monkey Tennis and chipmunx think. If we didn't lose Evatt we'd have had a decent season or two in my opinion and settled ok with some momentum, (more like Harrogate than Sutton) but when we lost him we desperately needed someone in who knew the league and what's required, instead we opted for David fucking Dunn, without even putting the position out for applications. We got lucky that Dunn had a decent assistant that kept us up in a caretaker position. Jolley was a disaster and the less said about him the better. The only one they were a tad unfortunate with was Cooper but even then he never applied and had to be persuaded to come, so the longer the season went on the more it became apparent he never wanted to be here, but he did point out a few home truths that we were nowhere near up to scratch off the pitch. Brown's here but it's obvious what he's like, no one has gone near him for years and most were/still are laughing their tits off when we appointed him.

We've had a fiasco with the training ground (training is based in the Manchester area - has been for years from previous regimes), moving around a few different places, which pissed Cooper off from the start, we seemed to sign one or two players without a manager being in place. Recruitment on the whole has been poor, we've even offered new contracts to players that are already backups to some already well below average first teamers.

Before the violins come out this is obviously nowhere near what the likes of Oldham are having to put up with. I just find it incredibly frustrating that it feels like we are pissing a glorious opportunity at this level up the wall with some poor decisions, you can accept a bad one now and again but to have five different managers in under two seasons it's just asking for trouble. The thing is, we'd never threatened to get promoted from the NL, it really was a perfect storm that got us here in the first place, the chances of repeating that are slim to say the least. If/when we go back down we'd be back to being a mid table NL side. Pretty gutting considering the extra income really gives us a great opportunity to improve the infrastructure, especially the ground, something we'd have very little resource to do in the league below.

 

[Monkey Tennis]

Definitely bad decision making, not sure what Monkey Tennis and chipmunx think. If we didn't lose Evatt we'd have had a decent season or two in my opinion and settled ok with some momentum, (more like Harrogate than Sutton) but when we lost him we desperately needed someone in who knew the league and what's required, instead we opted for David fucking Dunn, without even putting the position out for applications. We got lucky that Dunn had a decent assistant that kept us up in a caretaker position. Jolley was a disaster and the less said about him the better. The only one they were a tad unfortunate with was Cooper but even then he never applied and had to be persuaded to come, so the longer the season went on the more it became apparent he never wanted to be here, but he did point out a few home truths that we were nowhere near up to scratch off the pitch. Brown's here but it's obvious what he's like, no one has gone near him for years and most were/still are laughing their tits off when we appointed him.

We've had a fiasco with the training ground (training is based in the Manchester area - has been for years from previous regimes), moving around a few different places, which pissed Cooper off from the start, we seemed to sign one or two players without a manager being in place. Recruitment on the whole has been poor, we've even offered new contracts to players that are already backups to some already well below average first teamers.

Before the violins come out this is obviously nowhere near what the likes of Oldham are having to put up with. I just find it incredibly frustrating that it feels like we are pissing a glorious opportunity at this level up the wall with some poor decisions, you can accept a bad one now and again but to have five different managers in under two seasons it's just asking for trouble. The thing is, we'd never threatened to get promoted from the NL, it really was a perfect storm that got us here in the first place, the chances of repeating that are slim to say the least. If/when we go back down we'd be back to being a mid table NL side. Pretty gutting considering the extra income really gives us a great opportunity to improve the infrastructure, especially the ground, something we'd have very little resource to do in the league below.

All of the above. Wrong decisions every time it mattered and naivety on and off the pitch.

It feels like only one season because of covid, and it's not been a good one (at home especially where we can't buy a win). I knew we'd be back down eventually, but hoped we'd manage to make some money out of it and rebuild the worst bits of the stadium. As it is, we'll be back to where we started, probably with Phil Brown in charge and a roof on one stand.

 

[hellogregory]

I just hope if it comes down to it and it’s between Stevenage and Barrow, our players can pull their fingers out for that last home game and do our cumbrian neighbours a favour.

 

[hellogregory]

I’d say next 3 games decides it for Stevenage their last 4 are now easy because Simpson I don’t think will turn Carlisle into an end of season nothing side, he’s wanting as high as he can finish

Barrow fixtures do look horrific mind

I would hope not, but there have been signs of it already in the last 2 games. The intensity has definitely dropped, really noticeable at Rochdale last Tuesday and would have been more noticeable at Tranmere had we not been against 10 men for 60 minutes.

We’ll see if there is a marked improvement against Exeter on Saturday.

 

[AdamStag]

I would hope not, but there have been signs of it already in the last 2 games. The intensity has definitely dropped, really noticeable at Rochdale last Tuesday and would have been more noticeable at Tranmere had we not been against 10 men for 60 minutes.

We’ll see if there is a marked improvement against Exeter on Saturday.

hopefully!

 

[chipmunx]

Big games this weekend;-
Scunthorpe will be relegated if they lose and Oldham and Barrow win, but the chances of all 3 of those things happening must be slim.
Scunthorpe losing wouldn't be a great shock, but an Oldham win at in form Vale seems unlikely. Barrow on paper have a chance of at least a point at Crawley.
The biggest game however is Colchester v Stevenage. A Colchester win would be huge for both Oldham and Barrow irrespective of their own results.

my predictions:-

Scunthorpe 1 Mansfield 3
Port Vale 2 Oldham 1
Crawley 1 Barrow 1
Colchester 2 Stevenage 0